Effects of Cheap Talk on Consumer Willingness-to-Pay for Golden Rice

A large body of literature suggests willingness-to-pay is overstated in hypothetical valuation questions as compared to when actual payment is required. Recently, "cheap talk" has been proposed to eliminate the potential bias in hypothetical valuation questions. Cheap talk refers to process of explaining hypothetical bias to individuals prior to asking a valuation question. This study explores the effect of cheap talk in a mass mail survey using a conventional value elicitation technique. Results indicate that cheap talk was effective at reducing willingness-to-pay for most survey participants; however, consistent with previous research, cheap talk did not reduce willingness-to-pay for knowledgeable consumers.     

Testing hypothetical bias in a framed field experiment

Hypothetical bias is tested based on inter- and intra-respondent comparisons of choice behavior, applying a hypothetical and real choice experiment. The inter-respondent comparison commonly applied in the environmental and agricultural economics literature consists of a control group of buyers who are asked to hypothetically choose between conventional and organic beans and an experimental group of buyers who are endowed to purchase the same beans using an identical experimental design. Hypothetical bias is tested by comparing inter- and intra-respondents’ (i) hypothetical and real choices, (ii) preference parameters of the estimated choice models related to hypothetical and real choices, and (iii) hypothetical and real willingness to pay (WTP). Choices in the experimental group are highly consistent when switching from hypothetical to real choices for this study's homegrown goods. However, after being endowed, the price sensitivity of lower income households drops, suggesting a house money effect. WTP derived from actual purchases is higher than WTP based on hypothetical choices, indicating a negative hypothetical bias, but differences are only significant in the case of the inter-respondent comparison. Actual prices paid by respondents in the field experiment appear to be considerably lower than the estimated WTP values and yield a mixed picture of hypothetical bias.     

Predicting versus testing: a conditional cross‐forecasting accuracy measure for hypothetical bias*

A measure of hypothetical bias, or the divergence between stated and revealed preferences, based on conditional cross‐forecasting accuracy is suggested, based on out‐of‐sample prediction accuracy when estimates from stated preference data are used in place of those from actual choices, and vice versa. We describe an application of this measure to assess hypothetical bias in the context of an inquiry into people’s willingness to pay to avoid canola oil produced from genetically modified plants. The analysis suggests the presence of groupwise hypothetical bias in these choice data.     

Are Choice Experiments Incentive Compatible? A Test with Quality Differentiated Beef Steaks

This study compares hypothetical and nonhypothetical responses to choice experiment questions. We test for hypothetical bias in a choice experiment involving beef ribeye steaks with differing quality attributes. In general, hypothetical responses predicted higher probabilities of purchasing beef steaks than nonhypothetical responses. Thus, hypothetical choices overestimate total willingness-to-pay for beef steaks. However, marginal willingness-to-pay for a change in steak quality is, in general, not statistically different across hypothetical and actual payment settings.     

Strategic response: A key to understand how cheap talk works

Experimental protocols testing the effectiveness of cheap talk are numerous but have generated conflicting results. The theoretical interpretation of hypothetical bias as a strategic response according to the perceived consequence could be the missing key to understand these opposite results from the literature. Increasing evidence suggests that this bias rises from subjects’ perception of how stated preferences surveys will be used; some subjects believing that stated valuations can impact the price of the good, while others that it will influence its provision. Subjects strategically respond by adjusting their declared values accordingly. This paper reports experimental findings supporting the presence of strategic response, showing that cheap talk operates by mitigating these behaviors and potentially explaining cheap talk's heterogeneous results.     

Using Ex Ante Approaches to Obtain Credible Signals for Value in Contingent Markets: Evidence from the Field

While contingent valuation remains the only option available for measurement of total economic value of nonmarketed goods, the method has been criticized due to its hypothetical nature. We analyze field experimental data to evaluate two ex ante approaches to attenuating hypothetical bias, directly comparing value statements across four distinct referenda: hypothetical, "cheap talk,""consequential," and real. Our empirical evidence suggests two major findings: hypothetical responses are significantly different from real responses; and responses in the consequential and cheap talk treatments are statistically indistinguishable from real responses. We review the potential for each method to produce reliable results in the field.     

Valuing New Zealand recreational fishing and an assessment of the validity of the contingent valuation estimates

This article presents estimates of the recreational value of fishing in New Zealand. The data was obtained from a large-scale interview conducted at boat ramps across New Zealand. The results suggest that the recreational value of a species depends critically on the motives for targeting a particular species. Species targeted for eating purposes have marginal values that appear to closely reflect the market price of the fish (i.e. the opportunity cost). In contrast, those species which are sought mainly for recreational purposes, have a higher value. Furthermore, values for these fish types were found to be greatest for scarce species and large species of fish. The article examines the robustness of the estimates to determine whether strategic bias, embedding effects or hypothetical bias influence the results.     

Combining Revealed and Stated Preferences: Consistency Tests and Their Interpretations

This article models the recreation demand for Iowa wetlands, combining survey data on both actual usage patterns (i.e., revealed preferences (RPs)) and anticipated changes to those patterns under hypothetical increases in trip costs (i.e., stated preferences (SPs)). We formulate and test specific hypotheses concerning potential sources of bias in each approach and discuss what can be learned about the validity of the models from such tests.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE OF UPLAND RICE IN OGUN STATE OF NIGERIA: A PRODUCER PANEL APPROACH

Several reasons have been proposed to explain the unexpectedly low supply elasticities often found for food crops. This study is unusual in using a farmers' panel approach. This enables a distinction to be made between four different measures of response: realised output, planted hectarage, planned hectarage and ‘hypothetical’ hectarage. The results indicate that the own-price elasticities of supply are significantly positive. Planned, planted and realised responses are quite close, but are less than the hypothetical responses. The hypothetical elasticities are smaller for price falls than for price increases and they become lower as the harvesting period passes, suggesting contraction of supply of a crop when its price falls and asymmetric response among small-scale farmers.     

Joint estimation using revealed and stated preference data: An application using a national forest

We combine contingent behaviour with travel cost data to estimate the change in the recreational use value of a National Forest due to quality and price changes. Instead of the usual improvement scenario, a hypothetical deterioration in the conditions of the forest due to a fire is considered. A dataset containing five observations for each respondent enabled the estimation of three models for which the number of scenarios differed. The results show that visitors are sensitive to price and quality changes and that in the forest fire scenario the intended number of trips would be reduced and that respondents would experience a welfare loss. Signs of inconsistency between preferences expressed by revealed and intended behaviour were found. This research also provides some indications that strategic bias affects answers to price changes.     

Property rights and housing prices: An empirical study of small property rights housing in Shenzhen,China

Small Property Rights Housing (SPRH) is an important part of informal housing in China. SPRH is defined as housing developed with collective land ownership that is then sold to outside homebuyers such as non-indigenous villagers. This housing practice is legally forbidden and comes without formal titles. SPRH is popular in big Chinese cities where formal housing prices are constantly rising and increasingly unaffordable for many urban residents. However, research on SPRH is rare. Therefore, this study aims to investigate the effects (or the lack thereof) of de-jure property rights on housing prices by using the empirical case of Shenzhen where SPRH and FPRH estates constitute the main sources of urban housing for its residents. We collected both SPRH and formal Full Property Right Housing (FPRH) data in the Shenzhen housing market and adopted the Boundary Fixed Effect method and matching strategy to mitigate the bias caused by unobservable location and neighborhood factors. This empirical study shows that the lack of de-jure property rights has negative and significant effects on housing prices. The average housing price for SPRH apartments is, ceteris paribus, 52.82% lower than for formal FPRH apartments. Also, the premium of property rights varies across two administrative regions with different locations and economic environments, and the premium decreases as the age of the building increases.     

Risk Behaviours and Grazing Land Management: A Framed Field Experiment and Linkages to Range Land Condition

We use a framed field experiment considering hypothetical stocking rate decisions made by grazing enterprise managers and estimate non‐linear multinomial logit models for a range of nested non‐expected utility and expected utility models. The risk and decision‐bias parameters for five models estimated for individual responses are shown to be significantly related to land condition but in ways which suggest behavioural aspects of decision making are critical in understanding land management and stocking rate decisions. Our results show that individual heterogeneity in decision making amongst farming groups is likely to be a significant source of variation in farming intensity and technology adoption decisions. This heterogeneity does not appear to be a reflection of socio‐demographic characteristics. Furthermore, decision functions appear to be biased toward selection of simpler representative functions (e.g. Expected Utility) for sample averages. This suggests that experimental findings that Expected Utility is representative for actual decisions may be due to sample averaging rather than reflect actual behaviour.     

Testing for convergent validity between travel cost and contingent valuation estimates of recreation values in the Coorong,Australia*

A number of studies valuing recreation have shown that the travel cost method (TCM) generates higher estimates of value than the contingent valuation method (CVM), even though the latter is commonly associated with potential problems of hypothetical and strategic bias. In this study, both methods have been used to estimate the recreational values associated with the Coorong on the Murray River in south‐eastern Australia. Values per adult visitor per recreation day are estimated with the TCM at $149 and with the CVM at $116. A number of methodological and framing issues to explain these value differences are tested. In summary, while no single methodological or framing issue could be identified that would reconcile the difference between TCM and CVM values, it appears likely that there may be a combination of factors that drive the systematic variations in consumer surplus values. The evidence in this study suggests that the most important of these are likely to be the different decision points underpinning data collection and the consideration of substitute sites, strategic responses and the treatment of uncertain responses within the CVM.     

Do Ethical Consumers Care About Price? A Revealed Preference Analysis of Fair Trade Coffee Purchases

The existing literature on socially responsible purchasing relies heavily on stated preference measures elicited through surveys that utilize hypothetical market choices. This paper explores consumers' revealed purchasing behavior with regard to fair trade coffee and is apparently the first to do so in an actual market setting. In a series of experiments, we investigated differences in consumer responsiveness to relative price changes in fair trade and non‐fair trade brewed coffees. In order to minimize the hypothetical bias that may be present in some experimental settings, we conducted our experiments in cooperation with a vendor who allowed us to vary prices in an actual coffee shop. Using a choice model, we found that purchasers of fair trade coffee were much less price responsive than those of other coffee products. The demonstration of low sensitivity to price suggests that the market premiums identified by stated preference studies do indeed exist and are not merely artifacts of hypothetical settings. La littérature existante sur la consommation responsable repose fortement sur les mesures des préférences déclarées recueillies lors d'enquêtes utilisant des choix hypothétiques. Le présent article examine le comportement d'achat révélé des consommateurs concernant le cafééquitable et constitue apparemment le premier article du genre à le faire dans le contexte d'un marché réel. Au cours d'une série d'expériences, nous avons examiné les différentes réactions des consommateurs concernant les changements du prix relatif des cafés infusés équitables et classiques (non équitables). Pour minimiser le biais hypothétique qui pourrait exister dans certaines situations expérimentales, nous avons effectué nos expériences en collaboration avec un fournisseur qui nous a donné la permission de modifier les prix dans un véritable café‐restaurant. À l'aide d'un modèle de choix, nos résultats ont montré que les consommateurs de cafééquitable réagissaient beaucoup moins au prix que les consommateurs de café classique. Cette faible sensibilité au prix donne à penser que les primes de marché identifiées dans les études sur les préférences déclarées existent effectivement et qu'elles ne sont pas de simples phénomènes de situations hypothétiques.     

Invasive species: The categorization of wildlife in science,policy, and wildlife management

Species categories commonly used in nature conservation, such as protected, endangered, reintroduced, or invasive, are open to various interpretations that can result in diverging and sometimes serious consequences. This is vividly apparent with respect to invasiveness because the categorization of species and individual animals as invasive impacts on how they are treated in practice. This article demonstrates how different constructions of invasiveness in science, policy, and wildlife management can be traced back to different assessments of the origin, behavior, and impact of the invasives. Specifically, the focus is on the different conceptions of space and the role of data in the categorization of invasives. We find that, in science and policy, invasiveness is constructed mainly in terms of the origin and impact of invasives but that these domains differ in how they treat space in their assessment of origin: whereas science uses ecological spaces, such as biogeographical regions, to assess whether a species belongs to, or is invasive in, a certain area, policy uses policy spaces such as countries or states to do so. In assessing the impact of invasives, science argues about including it in its definition, whereas policy requires detailed data about ecological, societal, and economic damage in order to take action. In wildlife management, the focus in the construction of invasiveness shifts from origin and impact to behavior of invasives. This requires detailed data about where the invasives are, where they are going, and what they are doing. By showing the dynamic and context-specific nature of the construction of invasiveness, the article contributes to ongoing research about classifications of nature, their difficulties and ambiguities, and their implementation and consequences in practice.     

A revised Tobit procedure for mitigating bias in the presence of non-zero censoring with an application to milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands

Fixed transactions costs that prohibit exchange engender bias in supply analysis due to censoring of the sample observations. The associated bias in conventional regression procedures applied to censored data and the construction of robust methods for mitigating bias have been preoccupations of applied economists since Tobin [Econometrica 26 (1958) 24]. This literature assumes that the true point of censoring in the data is zero and, when this is not the case, imparts a bias to parameter estimates of the censored regression model. We conjecture that this bias can be significant; affirm this from experiments; and suggest techniques for mitigating this bias using Bayesian procedures. The bias-mitigating procedures are based on modifications of the key step that facilitates Bayesian estimation of the censored regression model; are easy to implement; work well in both small and large samples; and lead to significantly improved inference in the censored regression model. These findings are important in light of the widespread use of the zero-censored Tobit regression and we investigate their consequences using data on milk-market participation in the Ethiopian highlands.     

Are forest plantation subsidies affecting land use change and off-farm income? A farm-level analysis of Chilean small forest landowners

Forest plantations have increased rapidly in the last three decades, to a large extent due to direct and indirect financial incentives. At the farm level, forestry incentives can affect the investment decisions of small forest landowners and bring socioeconomic externalities or unintended effects associated with farm management. The purpose of this study is to assess the ex post impacts of a forestry subsidy on land use changes and off-farm income experienced by Chilean small forest landowners. A structural equation mediation model (SEM) was estimated using a time frame of 15 years (1998–2013). To reduce the selection bias, propensity score matching (PSM) was performed prior to the estimation of the SEM. Results indicate that the subsidy had a significant effect on land use changes, as it increases forest plantations and replaces pastures primarily, but also crops and native forest to a lesser extent. In addition, beneficiaries of the subsidy had a marginal increase in off-farm income not explained by the increase in forest plantation.     

Meta-governance and soft projects: A hypothetical model for regional policy integration

Reflecting on the concepts of meta-governance and soft projects, this study involves testing a hypothetical model for regional policy integration which incorporates three core assumptions: (a) collaborative regional institutions are likely to step out of their comfort zone and engage in project discussions where there are managerial regional institutions which have the potential to incorporate such projects and take them forward; (b) soft projects, like regional parks, unleash such potential since they can involve a wide range of objectives and activities and thus provide an opportunity for managerial regional institutions to procure legitimacy by wider inputs at low cost; and (c) collaborative regional institutions tend to overcome their initial internal differences about such projects in order to develop network power in relation to managerial regional institutions. This hypothetical model is supported by case study findings in the North West region of England, feeding in a discussion about some priorities for future research.