期权理论对订单农业的指导与应用

订单农业促进了农业产业结构调整 ,稳定与提高了农民收入。但是 ,发展订单农业中也存在一些问题 ,突出地表现为违约行为。违约行为表面上是农民与企业的短期行为 ,而内在的根源则是利益风险机制不健全。只有建立合乎经济原理 ,农民与企业真正“风险共担、利益共享”的利益风险机制 ,才能确保订单农业的健康发展。期权是为解决农产品市场风险而产生和发展起来的 ,金融期权理论的研究与应用使其成为 2 0世纪经济学最伟大的发现之一。其原理、方法和结论广泛应用于对宏观经济、微观经济和管理问题的分析与决策。运用期权理论中的卖权机制来分析…     

风险规避下基于期权合约的木材产销供应链最优策略

文章以一个风险规避型营林企业和一个风险中性木材分销商的木材产销供应链为研究对象,分析营林企业向木材分销商购买期权合约规避木材市场价格的随机波动风险,在条件风险价值(CVaR)准则下,构建斯塔克尔伯格(Stackelberg)博弈模型,研究木材产销供应链最优策略,并分析营林企业风险规避程度、期权执行价格以及期权费补贴率对木材产销供应链最优策略的影响。研究结果表明,当期权合约中约定的期权执行价格较低时,营林企业种植规模、木材生产量和期权费均随风险规避程度的增加而减少,但单位面积蓄积量却随风险规避程度的增加而增加;而当期权执行价格较高时,营林企业可通过行权应对木材价格波动风险,故种植规模、木材生产量、单位面积蓄积量以及期权费均不受风险规避程度影响。期权执行价格的提高会促使木材分销商提高期权费,进而提高期望利润;但期权执行价格对营林企业最优混合决策的影响存在差异,期权执行价格的提高有利于提高营林企业种植规模,但不利于营林企业增加质量投入提高单位面积蓄积量。期权费和单位面积蓄积量随期权费补贴率的提高而增加,而营林企业种植规模和木材生产量却随期权费补贴率的提高而减少。此外,期权费补贴率的提高有利于提高木材分销商的期望利润,但会降低营林企业的条件风险价值。     

诚信:企业生存与发展的关键

诚信,是市场经济的基本准则.但现实中,违约、价格欺骗、虚假财务报告等企业失信的行为却大量存在.我们要针对企业失信行为的影响因素,从宏观和微观两方面采取切实、有效、可行的措施构建企业诚信经营机制,加快产权制度的改革,加强法制建设和诚信经营教育.     

十年两次违约中国大豆贸易将走向何方

2004年4月，伴随着国际大豆价格快速回落，国内部分加工企业特别是民营企业无奈采取了违约行为；时隔十年，同样的时间点，中国大豆买家再次出现集体性违约，所不同的是，一个是价格大跌，一个是价格大涨。我们不仅要问：是我们的大豆加工企业仍然缺乏风险意识，还是确实存在所谓的外资阴谋论？     

标准去哪儿了——农业企业质量之困

<正>有一年发生了一件"订单农业"违约事件并引发了社会矛盾,成群的农民将农产品倒在了收购企业门前,倾诉企业的"坑农"行为,一时间充满道德责问的相关报道迅速传播,矛头全部指向当事企业与地方政府。但随着调查的深入,发现事情根本不是那么简单,到底谁违约都成了问题。原来,企业与农民签订的是出口日本的青刀豆生产合同,为了保证新鲜,必须在开花后10天     

利用期货市场管理订单农业违约风险的实证分析

违约风险是当前我国订单农业发展面临的主要问题,"订单+期货"模式作为违约风险管理的探索在理论与实践中受到重视.本文建立引入期货交易前后的市场均衡模型,通过模型求解及数值分析,考察"订单+期货"模式管理违约风险的条件.研究表明,期货市场的引入能够直接转移收购企业的订单价格风险,提高其履约能力;同时,在具有需求价格弹性较低...     

经理股票期权应用环境探讨

经理股票期权是企业经理按与所有者约定的价格购进未来一定时期内公司股份的权利.它既是由企业的所有者向经营者提供激励的一种报酬制度,又是一种面向未来的人力资本定价机制.其基本内容是以一定价格将本公司的股票售予经理人,并给予其未来购买股票的选择权,持有这种权利的经理人可以在规定时期内以股票期权的行权价格购买本公司股票.在行权以前,股票期权持有人没有任何的现金收益;行权以后,其收益为行权价与行权日市场价之间的差价.经理人可以自行决定在任何时间出售行权所得股票.当行权价一定时,行权人的收益与股票价格成正比,于是经理人的个人利益就与企业未来发展建立起一种正相关的关系.经理股票期权本质上就是让经理人员拥有一定的剩余索取权并承担相应的风险.……     

我国商业银行利率风险管理探析

利率是金融市场中最重要的变量之一,随着我国利率市场化进程的加快,利率变动的不确定性使商业银行的资产、负债和表外项目对利率的敏感程度加大,个人客户的利率风险意识也不断增强,再加上我国现阶段对于客户提前还款的违约行为还缺乏政策性限制,因此隐含期权风险在中国商业银行日益突出,商业银行亟须对含有隐含期权的项目进行利率风险管理。本文主要介绍衡量隐含期权的利率风险的有效持续期、持续期缺口和期权调整利差法,并对该项风险管理控制提出建议。     

商业银行应对固定利率住房抵押贷款提前偿还分析

本文在分析借款者在固定利率住房抵押贷款模式下提前偿还行为后,建议商业银行可以将提前偿还行为看作是借款者拥有的一项隐含期权,并把该期权费用包含于固定利率住房抵押贷款的初始价格中去。     

经理股票期权应用环境探讨

经理股票期权是企业经理按与所有者约定的价格购进未来一定时期内公司股份的权利。它既是由企业的所有者向经营者提供激励的一种报酬制度,又是一种面向未来的人力资本定价机制。其基本内容是以一定价格将本公司的股票售予经理人,并给予其未来购买股票的选择权,持有这种权利的经理人可以在规定时期内以股票期权的行权价格购买本公司股票。在行权以前,股票期权持有人没有     

农户经营性投入的影响因素分析 ———以洛南县核桃种植为例

农户经营性投入的高低反映农户参与农业生产的积极性.该文通过引入社会资本、农户预期、农户技术满意度三个隐性变量,采用陕西省洛南县208个核桃种植户的调查数据,运用WLS对影响农户农业经营性投入的关键因素进行了实证分析.结果表明,户主的性别、农户核桃种植面积、社会资本等若干因素与农户种植核桃的经营性投入呈显著的正相关;而户主年龄、农户对未来市场的预期两个因素与农户的经营性投入呈显著的负相关.并据此提出加强项目区农民培训、培养专业种植户和提高政府、村委会的组织能力等提高农户经营性投入水平的对策建议.     

Stuck in a rut: emerging cocoa cooperatives in Peru and the factors that influence their performance

Agri-cooperatives play an important role in helping resource-poor farmers reach high-value markets. In addition to linking smallholders to markets, cooperatives provide their members with various services, such as extension, credit, input subsidies, and social programmes. While the literature contains many examples of success, there has been limited discussion on the often long and turbulent process by which cooperatives develop over time and the viable options for shortcuts. This study examines four emerging cocoa cooperatives in Peru to determine their overall business viability, the key factors that advanced their development, and their capacity to address the needs of their members. Our findings suggest that strategies for supporting cooperative development have largely failed to address major internal weaknesses and the challenges posed in the external environment. The cooperatives have received time-bound, uncoordinated, and often small-scale, interventions, which have focused on infrastructure expansion and technical assistance. Important areas related to business management and governance structures, trust relationships with buyers, and sufficient working capital have largely been ignored. Shortcuts may be achieved through improvements in access to business development and financial services, deeper engagement by private sector to support the development process, and commitment by stakeholders to monitoring and critical reflection for strategy refinement.     

Underground assets: potato biodiversity to improve the livelihoods of the poor

Vulnerability and limited assets both constrain the options of poor people, especially smallholder farmers. But the poor often also possess a range of potentially valuable natural, physical, financial, human and social-capital assets. Development interventions requiring high levels of assets that poor people do not have are unlikely to reduce poverty, but those which build on what they do have can build assets and so improve their options. Producing and processing potatoes are important livelihood strategies for millions of the poor. A careful understanding of the context and strategies of the poor can help indicate how potatoes can also be used to reduce poverty. This paper employs the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework to examine these issues, using the Papa Andina case in the Andes as an example of new approaches to use potato diversity to improve livelihoods in a transforming development context. The Papa Andina regional initiative, together with its national partners, helps Andean farmers build new livelihood strategies using the genetic diversity of potatoes, local knowledge and social capital—assets that are often undervalued. But this does not occur in a vacuum; a range of policies and institutions are required, including, for example, collective action among farmers and interaction with outsiders such as market agents and agricultural service providers in order to foster market chain innovation and to access and build market opportunities. Accurate understanding of the changing context of producers, processors and consumers can help ensure that potatoes play a role in improving the welfare of the poor.     

农民的创业动机、需求及其扶持

本文基于对广东省部分地区农民的问卷调查分析,受农民群体的独特性及其所处环境的特殊作用,农民的创业动机主要源于生存需求、自我实现和发展及解决就业;对政府行政成本与法制保障的忧虑、市场拓展与管理能力不足、风险承受能力差及创业能力不足是农民创业的主要障碍;而资金帮助和技术支持是农民创业最期盼得到的帮助,创业者风险补偿是农民创业最希望获得的政府优惠政策,由此,提升农民创业者的创业能力及其创业后的管理和发展能力、创业可持性始终应该是农民创业扶持政策必须给予关注的重点。     

江西省农户参与林业合作组织的意愿及其影响因素分析

采用问卷调查和probit模型分析方法,从家庭基本特征、林业生产状况、就业替代条件和林业部门的政策导向等方面分析影响江西省农户参与林业合作组织的因素。研究结果表明:户主年龄、家庭劳动力中从事林业的人数、是否了解林业组织、是否富裕户是影响江西省农户参与林业合作组织的重要因素。     

发放林权抵押贷款 构筑农村绿色银行——来自宽甸满族自治县农村信用社联合社的报告

介绍了辽宁宽甸农村信用联社在全省率先开办林权抵押贷款业务的历程与效果,并对存在问题进行了思考。截至2007年6月末,发放林权抵押贷款1800万元,实现了自身业务发展增效,农户的实惠,生态等得保护的多赢目标。其抵押贷款实践表明:农户需求呼唤更多贷款品种,林权改革催生林权抵押贷款,政府为林权抵押贷款创造了条件。     

Strategic Role of Trade Credit in Chain Coordination for the Traditional Farm Business Enterprises in Punjab,India

Abstract

Rice being a staple cereal, government purchases paddy (unhusked rice) from the primary wholesale markets in the surplus agrarian Punjab State and milled rice is distributed through the public distribution system in rice deficit States. Commission agents (CAs) in the primary wholesale markets that operate on a fixed commission basis constitute a strategic link between farmers and the procurement agencies/millers. To ensure adequate supplies of paddy for their own businesses CAs advance trade credit to the client farmers who need a regular flow of credit (during both the seasons annually that is not always possible to raise from the formal sources) for the purchase of operational inputs, on farm investments and various consumption purposes. So mutual interdependences, hereditary characters of the business enterprises and close proximities have enabled the chain partners to build up close personal relationships in the repeat business transactions. Farmers sell paddy through the preferred CAs during the post-harvest period, and personal relationships play a pivotal role in chain coordination while captive relationships ensure timely payments. For advancing trade credit, CAs' preferred choices are the medium and large sized farmers due to lower risks while the small sized farmers are less preferred because of their weak asset positions and payment uncertainties that increase the operational costs of trade credit. CAs make amicable adjustments to the utmost so that farmers do not shift away from their preferred CAs. CAs do not share any market risk, however, when paddy payments from the government to farmers get delayed they at their personal levels meet the requirements for cash contingencies of the client farmers. Knowledge gained from this study provides managerial and policy insights on the supply chain management mechanisms for the supplies of an essential input and its timely recoveries.     

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture: Avoiding trivial solutions to a global problem

Three steps are required to successfully and efficiently reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agriculture: (i) identification of the most GHG polluting farms, (ii) determining appropriate mitigation options for these farms, and (iii) selection between these options on the basis of their cost effectiveness. Carbon footprints of a sample of farms together with an analysis of the Kyoto Protocol show the difficulties encountered at each step. These difficulties are caused by: (i) failure to agree which functional unit to use to measure GHG emissions and pollution swapping; (ii) weaknesses in the Kyoto Protocol's territorial/production based accounting methodology, and (iii) lack of cost-effectiveness data. One consequence is that farmers may adopt mitigation activities that reduce their farm's, the UK agriculture sector's and the UK's emissions whilst inadvertently increasing global emissions: a trivial solution because it fails to address GHG emissions as a global problem. These difficulties, together with estimated agriculture sector marginal abatement cost curves that suggests emission reduction from all cost effective mitigation activities will not deliver targeted GHG emission reductions, means policy focus must be on demand rather than supply-side measures: the benefits and disadvantages of cap and trade mechanisms and carbon taxes are briefly discussed within an agricultural context.     

Finding Missing Markets (and a Disturbing Epilogue): Evidence from an Export Crop Adoption and Marketing Intervention in Kenya

Farmers may grow crops for local consumption despite more profitable export options. DrumNet, a Kenyan NGO that helps small farmers adopt and market export crops, conducted a randomized trial to evaluate its impact. DrumNet services increased production of export crops and lowered marketing costs, leading to a 32% income gain for new adopters. The services collapsed one year later when the exporter stopped buying from DrumNet because farmers could not meet new EU production requirements. Farmers sold to other middlemen and defaulted on their loans from DrumNet. Such experiences may explain why farmers are less likely to adopt export crops.     

OPTIONS FOR REDUCING INPUTS TO AGRICULTURE: A NON-ECONOMIST'S VIEW

By adopting new (higher output) technology farmers have largely compensated for the steady fall in ‘real’ EEC farm prices: as a result food production is in surplus. Because immediate price cuts adequate to curb production are unlikely, further restriction on farm output (e.g., milk quotas) appears unavoidable. Farmers must then aim to reduce their input costs so as to produce their ‘quota’ as cheaply as possible. The paper examines options for reducing inputs, and concludes that more research on lower-input production systems is urgently needed, and that the economic discipline must be closely integrated with this research. It notes that a shift towards ‘less intensive’ farming would be in line with public concern on the environment, food quality and animal welfare.