Land use and land cover scenarios: An interdisciplinary approach integrating local conditions and the global shared socioeconomic pathways

Land Use and Land Cover (LULC) changes have profound impacts on the functioning of (agro)ecosystems and have potential to mitigate global climate change. However, we still lack interdisciplinary methods to project future LULC scenarios at spatial scales that are relevant for local decision making and future environmental assessments. Here we apply an interdisciplinary approach to develop spatially explicit projections of LULC at a resolution of 30 × 30 m informed by historic relationships between LULC and their key drivers, within the context of the four qualitative scenarios of global shared socioeconomic pathways. We apply this methodology to a case study in the Zona da Mata, Brazil, which has a history of major LULC changes. The analysis of LULC changes from 1986 to 2015 indicates that pasture area decreased from 76 to 58 % of total area, while forest areas increased from 18 to 24 %, and coffee from 3 to 11 %. Environmental protection legislation, rural credit for smallholder farmers, and demand for agricultural and raw products were identified as main drivers of LULC changes. Projected LULC for 2045 strongly depends on the global socioeconomic pathway scenarios, and forest and coffee areas may increase substantially under strong government measures in the environmentally conscious Green Road scenario or decrease in the high consumption Rocky Road scenario. Our study shows that under the set of drivers during the past three decades reforestation can go hand in hand with increase of agricultural production, but that major and contrasting changes in LULC can be expected depending on the socioeconomic pathway that will be followed in the future. To guide this process, LULC scenarios at the local scale can inform the planning of local and regional development and forest conservation.     

不同土地利用情景下农村景观生态格局优化

景观格局优化是实现有限土地资源优化利用的有效途径。文章以重庆市江津区龙华镇为样区,设置4种不同土地利用情景,通过8个景观格局指数与生态阻力对各情景设置进行分析,在此基础上采用最小累积阻力模型,构建不同景观组分别对4种不同土地利用情景(基准情景、生态情景、发展情景、综合情景)的景观格局进行优化,遴选最佳优化路径。结果表明:样区耕地景观占比最大,这有助于促进景观生态功能的开发与利用;样区较高程度的景观破碎化与较差的景观连通性对景观生态功能的开发与利用产生较大的阻碍作用;比较4种土地利用情景,综合情景的生态源面积大于其它3种情景,且生态源的分布情况也较其它3种情景均匀;在构建生态廊道体系时,综合情景下的物质、能量及物种的流通性也较其它3种情景强;而且,综合情景下的生态节点跟其它3种情景相比,无论是在功能数量上还是在空间分布上,均具有更强的合理性。     

面向乡村振兴的农村土地整治转型与创新思考

研究目的:面向乡村振兴的战略需求,分析当前农村土地整治存在的主要问题,提出农村土地整治转型和创新的思考,为实现农村可持续发展提供国土资源保障。研究方法:文献归纳法、理论分析法和图示法。研究结果:(1)传统农村土地整治存在"三不"倾向,即理论研究不足、空间逻辑不强与规划论证不力,由此带来了"三化"问题,即整治模式固化、复合功能弱化和人地关系泛化;(2)农村土地整治正面临由土地分散整治向空间统筹治理转型、由问题导向向目标导向转型和由以地为本向以人为本转型;(3)新时期亟需推进农村土地整治创新,积极倡导城乡统筹型土地整治、探索多功能导向型生产空间整治、推广人居环境改善型公共空间治理及聚焦绿色发展型生态空间治理。研究结论:乡村振兴为农村土地整治转型与创新提供了驱动力,农村土地整治为实现乡村振兴提供了着力点。农村土地整治需兼具规划视角的城乡统筹性与设计视角的空间联动性,在重视土地生产功能提升的基础上,挖掘土地整治蕴含的社会功能与生态服务价值,实现乡村地域要素聚集、结构优化与功能提升。     

Why do global long‐term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison

Recent studies assessing plausible futures for agricultural markets and global food security have had contradictory outcomes. To advance our understanding of the sources of the differences, 10 global economic models that produce long‐term scenarios were asked to compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. Several key conclusions emerge from this exercise: First, for a comparison of scenario results to be meaningful, a careful analysis of the interpretation of the relevant model variables is essential. For instance, the use of “real world commodity prices” differs widely across models, and comparing the prices without accounting for their different meanings can lead to misleading results. Second, results suggest that, once some key assumptions are harmonized, the variability in general trends across models declines but remains important. For example, given the common assumptions of the reference scenario, models show average annual rates of changes of real global producer prices for agricultural products on average ranging between ?0.4% and +0.7% between the 2005 base year and 2050. This compares to an average decline of real agricultural prices of 4% p.a. between the 1960s and the 2000s. Several other common trends are shown, for example, relating to key global growth areas for agricultural production and consumption. Third, differences in basic model parameters such as income and price elasticities, sometimes hidden in the way market behavior is modeled, result in significant differences in the details. Fourth, the analysis shows that agro‐economic modelers aiming to inform the agricultural and development policy debate require better data and analysis on both economic behavior and biophysical drivers. More interdisciplinary modeling efforts are required to cross‐fertilize analyses at different scales.     

规划情景约束下山地丘陵区土地利用空间格局模拟*——以重庆市綦江区为例

[目的]以重庆市綦江区为研究对象,通过模拟预测2010—2020年规划调控影响下研究区的土地利用空间格局变化特征,以期为目标情景下土地利用规划的空间实施提供技术支持。[方法]文章通过构建Dyna-CLUE模型分别模拟研究区在自然增长和规划约束引导下的土地利用空间格局,并对照自然情景进而分析规划约束下土地利用空间格局的表现特征。[结果]比较AutoLogistic模型与传统Logistic模型回归结果发现,除建设用地外,其他地类的ROC值都有显著提升;对比两种情景模拟结果发现,到2020年,研究区内耕地、农村居民点、未利用地较自然情景显著减少,林地、园地显著增加,城镇建设用地增长规模较自然增长情景减少171.86hm~2;规划情景约束下,2010—2015年研究区地类转移以耕地转建设用地为主,2015—2020年以耕地转林地为主,耕地转建设用地次之,再次为农村居民点转耕地。[结论]Dyna-CLUE模型模拟中,运用添加自相关因子的AutoLogistic模型代替传统Logistic模型进行空间驱动力分析,能够显著提升模型模拟精度;规划约束下,退耕还林、农村居民点复垦和农业结构调整等工作的开展是耕地减少、林园地显著增加,建设用地规模得以控制的重要原因;退耕还林成果在规划约束情景中得到较好体现,表明规划目标对于引导土地利用空间格局定向变化有重要作用,但是丘陵山地的耕地减少态势也需得到足够重视,建议推进耕地产能建设从而协调生态保护与粮食安全间的用地需求。     

乡村振兴背景下村域尺度国土空间规划：认知、职能与构建

研究目的:在乡村振兴背景下,以国土空间规划体系重构为契机,科学认知村域尺度国土空间规划内涵,明确其基本职能,并提出构建路径。研究方法:文献研究法,综合分析法。研究结果:当前乡村面临转型,而村域规划存在理论认知不深入、技术支撑不足、实施管理困难等问题,新时期村域国土空间规划应依据外部社会背景及村庄内在条件,在全面认知乡村价值前提下,通过空间资源要素配置与用途管制来干预乡村空间重构并服务于乡村治理。研究结论:乡村振兴背景下村域国土空间规划应当具备指明乡村振兴路径、强化乡村空间治理、行使自然资源监管、尊重多元价值诉求等基本职能,并基于问题、需求、目标、行动四维导向进行构建。     

Integrating strict protection and sustainable use areas to preserve the Brazilian Pampa biome through conservation planning

Biodiversity conservation planning must be ecosystem-specific and take into account human needs as food production. The Pampa biome is a temperate grassland with high species richness and with an important role in food production in South America. Here we present the first formal Systematic Conservation Planning for the Brazilian part of the Pampa, which is the least protected biome in Brazil. We aimed to build conservation scenarios where at least 17 % of the biome area were protected, following the 11^th Aichi target for terrestrial lands protection according to the Convention on Biological Diversity. Our conservation targets were the vegetation types of this biome. Three scenarios were built varying in their proportions of strict protection (SP) and sustainable use areas (SU): Permissive scenario (5 % SP, 12 % SU); Intermediate scenario (10 % SP, 7 % SU) and Restrictive scenario (15 % SP, 2 % SU). Urban and rural areas, as well as bovine and ovine density, were used as prioritization costs, aiming to minimize possible conservation conflicts. Four main clusters of priority areas to protect the vegetational diversity can be observed in all scenarios and should be considered when implementing future protected areas in this threatened biome. Sustainable use areas are suitable for low-density livestock raising, combining biodiversity protection and food production, but strictly protected areas are still important to species most affected by livestock. The combination of strict protection and sustainable use areas can be effective in similar biomes. It should be considered in future international negotiations, such as the 2020 Conference to be held in Beijing, opening new strategies to achieve the 17 % of land protection. We expect that this Systematic Conservation Planning reinforces the recently started scientific discussion regarding the conservation of non-forest ecosystems in Brazil.     

Developing land use scenarios for stakeholder participation in Russia

Land use change, climate change, and the politics of accelerated agricultural growth shape contemporary land use in Russia. This factor combination urgently calls for exploring viable opportunities for sustainable land management in rural areas, which remains low on the political agenda. We address this task by bringing together various dimensions of future land use and state regulation and develop land use scenarios for the Tyumen region in Western Siberia up to 2050. Schematised maps of future land use make the scenarios spatially explicit and stakeholder-engaging. As part of the scenario process, we conducted stakeholder interviews and organised two scenario workshops on the ground. We present the scenarios as a tool that could be used to support participatory processes in a post-Soviet context.     

Does reading scenarios of future land use changes affect willingness to participate in land use planning?

Scenarios of future outcomes often provide context for policy decisions and can be a form of science communication, translating complex and uncertain relationships into stories for a broader audience. We conducted a survey experiment (n = 270) to test the effects of reading land use change scenarios on willingness to participate in land use planning activities. In the experiment, we tested three combinations of scenarios across two time periods, comparing survey responses of individuals reading a set of scenarios with individuals who did not read scenarios. Reading scenario narratives increased willingness to participate in land use planning activities and perceived self-efficacy. Measures of interest and sense of community also increased willingness to participate. Tests of an indirect mediation model found self-efficacy partially mediated the effect of reading scenarios on willingness to participate. This latter relationship may be a mechanistic explanation for the effect of reading scenarios. Envisioning the future with brief, bulleted scenarios of land use change in a print format appears to increase self-efficacy in planning for the future. Our results suggest scenarios can serve as a vehicle for changing public participation in land use planning.     

农村土地流转模式及其效应与创新

农村土地流转是发生在我国农村的重要社会经济现象,既关系到土地供给的总体结构及其变化,也关系到城市化和工业化进程,更关系到耕地保护与利用,从而关系到国家和地区粮食安全。我国实行统一的、最严格的以保护耕地为基本出发点的土地管理制度,但各地由于在农村土地流转方面所面临的问题不同,土地流转的形式和方式也不尽相同,形成了包括转包、互换、转让、出租、入股、置换、重组、兼并、股田等在内的土地流转模式。各种土地流转模式对耕地保护及粮食安全等方面均有其不同的效应。随着农村改革的进一步深化,农村土地流转需要不断创新,包括宏观层面和微观层面的制度创新,这种创新应以保护农民利益和保障粮食安全为基本宗旨。     

基于乡镇尺度的生态承载力评价研究——以积石山县为例

可持续发展一直是国内外学者研究的热点问题之一,伴随着我国乡村振兴战略与国土空间规划的实施,对构建乡镇尺度的生态承载力研究体系具有重要意义。本文运用综合指标评价法,以甘肃省临夏回族自治州积石山县为例,从人居环境—经济环境—自然环境出发选取了十二个指标对积石山县十七个乡镇进行生态承载力现状评价,并用k—均值聚类分析将各乡镇分类。结果表明,分别有三个乡镇属于高生态承载区与中生态承载区,其余十一个乡镇属于低生态承载区,分析各类乡镇三个环境之间的关系,针对各类乡镇在评价过程中出现的问题予以改善意见。本文主要贡献了一套易于在乡镇尺度上进行生态承载力现状分析的方法,同时为乡村振兴与国土空间规划提供参考,为我国其他乡镇生态承载力研究提供案例。     

Bringing the sharing-sparing debate down to the ground—Lessons learnt for participatory scenario development

The concepts of Land Sharing (LSH) and Land Sparing (LSP) shall help to manage trade-offs between land use and biodiversity conservation but applications in real world contexts are scarce. We review the literature on scenario and stakeholder processes and present a participatory approach to translate the LSH/LSP concept into practice. It is based on a scenario definition process harmonized across five case studies in Europe and resulted in semi-quantitative participative LSH and LSP scenarios. Harmonization eases comparability among case studies despite fundamentally different scenarios due to heterogeneous conditions across the regions. A key challenge was the right level of standardization for the scenario process to reach a common understanding across case study regions while acknowledging regional peculiarities. The resulting scenarios support for regional specific planning recommendations and can be input to quantitative ecosystem service and biodiversity models.     

北京市农村居民点用地整理潜力研究

研究目的:综合自然、社会、经济和土地利用等因素,分析北京市合理的农村居民点用地整理潜力。研究方法:综合分析法,空间分析法,文献资料法。研究结果:(1)提出了分区、分模式、分设标准研究北京市农村居民点整理的模式和方案;(2)提出了北京市实施农村居民点用地整理潜力的备选方案和推荐方案;(3)提出了推进北京市农村居民点用地整理的政策建议。研究结论:农村居民点用地整理是一项系统工程,对其潜力的估计不能单纯套用人均建设用地标准等指标进行,而应密切结合区域的自然地理条件、社会经济发展、土地利用及规划布局等因素,采用“三分法”(分区、分模式、分设标准)分析来进行;针对北京市的研究表明,尽管2004—2020年间,农村居民点整理的理论潜力在308km2—423km2,但从社会经济的承受能力看,实现200km2以内的腾退比较合适,并且需要因地制宜、积极稳妥、配合必要的政策予以推进。     

Land-use planning: Implications for transport sustainability

This research study explores three urban planning scenarios for Melbourne, Australia in 2030 and their implications for transport sustainability. As part of the analyses, a transport sustainability index, derived from 10 sustainability indicators, was developed and applied to compare the scenarios. A base-case scenario, an activity-centres scenario, and a fringe-focus scenario were used to consider compact to expanded urban development patterns. The activity-centres scenario, which favours compact development patterns, had the highest transport sustainability index. In contrast, the fringe-focus scenario that significantly expands urban development in the fringe resulted in a lower transport sustainability index. The results of scenario analysis would influence decisions regarding urban development in 2030.     

Urban green space qualities: An integrated approach towards GIS-based assessment reflecting user perception

For city dwellers urban green space is the primary source of contact with nature. Qualitative green space is increasingly perceived as an important factor for quality of life in urban areas and a key component of sustainable urban design and planning. In this study, the relation between different features of urban green spaces and perception of green space qualities was analyzed by combining the outcome of a survey on green space perception with GIS-based spatial metrics. A survey has been conducted among residents of the Brussels Capital Region and surroundings to assess the relative importance residents assign to different qualities of urban green spaces and how they value these qualities within visited spaces. Quietness, spaciousness, cleanliness and maintenance, facilities and feeling of safety are identified as important qualities of public green spaces, while naturalness, historical and cultural value are perceived as less important qualities. A GIS-based model was developed to infer naturalness, quietness and spaciousness as perceived by users of public green spaces from green space properties. Using variables describing biological value, land-cover composition, green space area and shape, good correlations were obtained between GIS-based assessment of naturalness and spaciousness and how green space users perceive these qualities. The model proposed may be useful for simulating green space development and improvement scenarios and assess their impact on perceived quality. Thus it may serve as a spatial decision support tool for improving the quality of urban green spaces.     

Changing land use in the countryside: Stakeholders’ perception of the ongoing rural planning processes in Flanders

Rural areas in densely populated regions face increasing competition for land. Consequently, land use planning processes must attempt to balance the goals of diverse stakeholders and the process of reaching consensus becomes more complicated. By investigating the perception of the actors involved in rural planning, this research contributes to the knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of such processes. We have focused on the case of rural planning processes in Flanders in which proponents of nature and agriculture are competing for land. Data are collected through open interviews with key actors such as farmers, representatives of nature preservation organisations, farmers’ unions, and employees of the relevant governmental policy areas. Data analysis according to the grounded theory approach resulted in six categories and 26 concepts that represent the stakeholders’ perception of difficulties in the Flemish rural planning approach. Three points where difficulties arise are (1) the link between envisioning, drawing up the plan and implementation, (2) the need for data, and (3) the role of sectors. We use three concepts from literature (procedural justice, distributive justice and value conflicts) to frame the difficulties observed. Based on this analysis, we discuss several ways to improve rural planning processes.     

论集体经营性建设用地入市对农村发展的影响

研究目的:分析集体经营性建设用地入市对农村发展的影响,为完善集体经营性建设用地入市试点及推广提出建议。研究方法:文献分析法、实地调研。研究结果:(1)集体经营性建设用地的合法存量并非源于法律授予,而是源于对既成事实的默许;(2)不均衡的集体经营性建设用地存量受到入市政策的刺激,将脱离集体经营性建设用地设置的初衷,再加上耕地保护政策的限制,两者共同挤压了农村产业发展的用地空间;(3)多种农地利用政策的交互作用将会导致不同的农地政策在落地时出现目标冲突,进而影响农村土地的实际利用。研究结论:应在集体经营性建设用地全面入市之前厘清存量差异的均衡办法、使用权价格形成机制,简化集体经营性建设用地入市所承载的多元目标,从而使集体经营性建设用地更好的服务于新时代农业农村的发展。     

Commercial release of first-generation genetically modified food products in New Zealand: using a partial equilibrium trade model to assess the impact on producer returns in New Zealand

In the present paper, the impact of genetically modified (GM) food production on producers, consumers and trade in New Zealand is simulated under various scenarios using the Lincoln Trade and Environment Model (LTEM). The LTEM simulates, against various assumptions of proportions of GM/GM-free production, the impact of various scenarios relating to preference for or against GM production. The results from this preliminary analysis show that the greatest positive impact on New Zealand income is from following a GM-free strategy, where it is assumed such markets as the European Union and Japan have a large switch in preference away from GM food, followed by the scenario when there is a 20% preference for GM-free.     

湖北省乡村旅游资源分类与评价研究

乡村旅游是我国当前旅游发展的热点之一,乡村旅游资源分类与评价是合理开发、科学规划乡村旅游的基础。根据资源的价值和功能,构建了湖北省乡村旅游资源分类体系,包括8个主类,18个亚类,41个基本类型。湖北省乡村旅游资源特色突出,四季赏花资源丰富,千湖之省水乡风光典型,乡村文化深远且地域差异明显。在此基础上,提出了乡村旅游资源定量评价方法与标准,并对湖北省乡村旅游资源结构、等级、地域分布进行了评价,最后提出了湖北省乡村旅游发展的相关策略。     

Rural development and the role of game farming in the Eastern Cape,South Africa

The analysis of game farming is set in the Eastern Cape, South Africa. Game farming reorders the use, meaning and value of land and animal species. However, what it means for rural development processes in the immediate region and beyond is not well accounted for. We perceive game farming as an assemblage that brings together new actors, new forms of land use and new discourses. We argue that although game farming has generated new opportunities and new forms of added value to the available resources (e.g. eco-tourism, trophy hunting, game-meat production), situated in the history and contemporary context of the Eastern Cape, it is a contested, and from a development point of view, problematic land-use practice. We argue that game farming constrains land and agrarian reforms: the distribution of land and income remains skewed; ‘poaching’ occurs and game farms do not, or only minimally, generate new and badly needed employment opportunities. The game farm has emerged as an exclusive, globally well-connected space. The nature of the relationships this space maintains with the surrounding communities is, however, such that the overall contribution to rural development in South Africa is questionable.