Missing markets for storage and the potential economic cost of expanding the spatial scope of water trade

A great deal of attention has been given in recent years to the question of externalities associated with water entitlements and how third parties can be protected without restricting opportunities for water trade. Yet one market failure that has received no attention at all is the missing market for storage that arises from the specification of water entitlements, particularly in Victoria where historically all storage decisions were made at the centralised level and where any additional carryover was treated as common property. The economic significance of the missing market for storage is demonstrated using an empirical model that represents the spatial‐temporal pattern of irrigation water demand in the Goulburn Valley and decisions regarding inter‐year storage of water in Lake Eildon. It is shown that, because irrigators have no incentive to trade‐off the benefit of current use (or sale) with the value of water storage, there is an erosion of reliability when opportunities for trade are broadened. The empirical results demonstrate that the loss in economic value associated with reduced reliability are as large as the gains from trade, so there is no net benefit from trade.     

The impact of drought and water scarcity on irrigator farm exit intentions in the Murray–Darling Basin

Drought and future water scarcity in the Murray–Darling Basin (MDB) will continue to restructure the irrigation industry in the coming decades. There has been little work conducted in Australia that has modelled farm exit or exit intention. ABARES farm survey data were used to model irrigators’ farm exit intentions across the southern MDB from 2006 to 2013. In particular, we examined the hypotheses that drought and water scarcity positively impacted on farm exit intentions and that it is the poorest performing farms that intend to exit in times of drought. Results revealed that water scarcity impacts varied considerably. There was only weak evidence to suggest that irrigators’ exit intentions were higher in times of drought, but there was stronger evidence to support the influence of a lagged water scarcity impact on farm exit intentions during periods of nondrought (e.g. intending to exit at times when the property market was less depressed). There was also strong evidence that poorer performing farms (measured by rates of return and higher debt over a certain level) were more likely to have exit intentions in drought periods, but not necessarily so in nondrought periods. Older age is the most consistent predictor of farm exit intentions across all industries, though it was most significant in drought periods.     

Do Differences in the Scale of Irrigation Projects Generate Different Impacts on Poverty and Production?

This article investigates differences in household production and consumption among small‐ and large‐scale irrigators to assess whether the scale of an irrigation project increases household welfare in Mali. Much of the evidence of the impact of irrigation does not use counterfactual analysis to estimate such impact or distinguish between the scale of the irrigation projects to be evaluated. In the dataset collected by the author, both a large‐scale irrigation project and small‐scale projects are used to construct counterfactual groups. Propensity score matching is used to estimate the average treatment effect on the treated for small and large irrigators relative to non‐irrigators on agricultural production, agricultural income and consumption per capita. Small‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on agricultural production and agricultural income than large‐scale irrigation, but large‐scale irrigation has a larger effect on consumption per capita. This suggests that market integration and non‐farm externalities are important in realising gains in agricultural surplus from irrigation.     

Allocation trade in Australia: a qualitative understanding of irrigator motives and behaviour*

Governments in Australia are purchasing water entitlements to secure water for environmental benefit, but entitlements generate an allocation profile that does not correspond fully to environmental flow requirements. Therefore, how environmental managers will operate to deliver small and medium‐sized inundation environmental flows remains uncertain. To assist environmental managers with the supply of inundation flows at variable times, it has been suggested that allocation trade be incorporated into efforts aimed at securing water. This paper provides some qualitative and quantitative perspective on what influences southern Murray–Darling Basin irrigators to trade allocation water at specific times across and within seasons using a market transaction framework. The results suggest that while irrigators now have access to greater risk‐management options, environmental managers should consider the possible impact of institutional change before intervening in traditional market activity. The findings may help improve the design of intervention strategies to minimise possible market intervention impacts and strategic behaviour.     

Economic assessment of acquiring water for environmental flows in the Murray Basin*

This article is an economic analysis of reallocating River Murray Basin water from agriculture to the environment with and without the possibility of interregional water trade. Acquiring environmental flows as an equal percentage of water allocations from all irrigation regions in the Basin is estimated to reduce returns to irrigation. When the same volume of water is taken from selected low-value regions only, the net revenue reduction is less. In all scenarios considered, net revenue gains from freeing trade are estimated to outweigh the negative revenue effects of reallocating water for environmental flows. The model accounts for how stochastic weather affects market water demand, supply and requirements for environmental flows. Net irrigation revenue is estimated to be 75 million less than the baseline level for a scenario involving reallocating a constant volume of water for the environment in both wet and dry years. For a more realistic scenario involving more water for the environment in wet and less in dry years, estimated net revenue loss is reduced by 48 per cent to 39 million. Finally, the external salinity-related costs of water trading are estimated at around 1 million per annum, a quite modest amount compared to the direct irrigation benefits of trade.     

The allocative efficiency and conservation potential of water laws encouraging investments in on-farm irrigation technology

Agricultural water conservation statutes are emerging in the West encouraging private irrigators to improve on‐farm irrigation efficiency as a basinwide conservation measure. We investigate whether private improvements promote the economic efficiency and conservation of water use basinwide under a wide variety of hydroeconomic circumstances. The standard of efficiency is how an irrigation district manager should optimally invest in improving the irrigation efficiencies of individual farms located along a stream while internalizing intrabasin allocative externalities of these investments. The results indicate that the popular Oregon legislative model may be the least effective in conserving water and promoting economically efficient water allocation.     

论农村水资源费“费改税”改革的必要性

农村水资源费进行“费改税”的改革,是农民减负增收的需要,是保护我国水环境、改善水污染治理的需要,是国家税费改革和政府转变职能的要求,是建立公共财政、实现公平、实现可持续发展的要求,而且现实中已经存在对水资源征税的要求。费改税符合市场经济下资源有偿使用的原则,能够减少外部性,符合资源的优化配置原则,此外还有国外的经验可以借鉴。因此征收水资源税,有历史的传统,是改革发展的需要,有理论依据,有经验可鉴,是切实可行的,利国利民。     

The Economic Benefits of Irrigation Districts under Prior Appropriation Doctrine: An Econometric Analysis of Agricultural Land‐Allocation Decisions

The economic literature has established that prior appropriation doctrine induces heterogeneity in risk among water users, which leads to an inefficient allocation of resources. In this study, we show that irrigation districts alleviate that risk by deviating from the strict application of prior appropriation doctrine. As a result, farmers inside irrigation districts are able to plant more water‐intensive crops than farmers outside irrigation districts, which increases average profitability. We empirically examine this hypothesis by leveraging a georeferenced panel data set at the spatial scale of the individual water right and spanning 2007–14 in Idaho's Eastern Snake River Plain. Our results indicate that on average, irrigation districts allocate larger portions of their land to drought‐sensitive, high‐value crops such as sugar beets and potatoes. As a result of differences in planting decisions, members of irrigation districts earn on average $16.20 per acre, or 6.0% more per year than those outside of irrigation districts.     

Using proportional modeling to evaluate irrigator preferences for market‐based water reallocation

Irrigators’ policy preferences for water reallocation programs usually take the form of proportional data, where one option will be relatively more or less favored than another in the composition of a government's total budget apportionment to address water reform. This study applies a zero‐one inflated beta regression to model Murray–Darling Basin irrigators’ preferences for market‐based water policy programs. Market‐based arrangements are more likely to provide efficient solutions to water reallocation problems, particularly where future uncertainty and appropriate pricing induce irrigator preferences for such programs. Our modeling of drivers of irrigator preferences for government expenditure on market‐based programs identified different determinants of zero (a corner solution) and proportional outcomes for the reallocation of Murray–Darling Basin water. In addition, the proportional modeling identifies some variables (namely, state regional influences, the type of farm production and recent debt, low income, or water allocation stressors) that increase engagement with market‐based programs. Interestingly, while price variables are important and statistically significant, they appear to be less relevant to program engagement than other influences.     

Elicitation of irrigators' risk preferences from observed behaviour

Water trading in the Murray–Darling Basin of Australia has developed to the point where it is a common adaptation tool used by irrigators, making it an apt case study to elicit the marginal value of irrigation water and irrigators' risk preferences in two key industries with differing levels of water dependence. Our data come from large‐scale and representative surveys of irrigated broadacre and horticultural farms in the Murray–Darling Basin over a 6‐year period. The marginal contribution of irrigation water to profit is estimated at $547 and $61/ML on average in horticulture and broadacre, respectively. Horticultural irrigators are found to be averse to the risk of large losses (downside risk) while broadacre irrigators are averse to the variability (variance) of profit.     

Third‐party effects of water trading and potential policy responses*

A key feature of water policy reform in Australia has been the separation of water access entitlements from land titles and the establishment of markets for water. However, the separation of water entitlements from land failed to account for a number of characteristics that were implicit in the joint right. This has given rise to a number of third party effects as water is traded in an incomplete market. This paper describes four third‐party effects of water trade; reliability of supply, timeliness of delivery, storage and delivery charges, and water quality and examines policy responses to address these effects. The discussion draws on the concepts of exclusiveness and rivalry to determine the applicability of property rights and other solutions to the third‐party effects of trade. It is likely that many of the third‐party effects of trade discussed in this paper do not warrant policy intervention at the national or state level, but intervention at the local level may be warranted. The costs of addressing some third‐party effects may outweigh the benefits. Where there are significant gains from trade, the existence of these third‐party effects should not been seen as a reason to impede trade.     

Modelling hydroclimatic uncertainty and short‐run irrigator decision making: the Goulburn system*

Australia has an incredibly variable and unpredictable hydroclimate, and while irrigation is designed to reduce risk, significant uncertainty remains in both seasonal water availability (‘allocations’) and irrigation crop water requirements. This paper explores the nature and impacts of seasonal hydroclimatic uncertainty on irrigator decision making and temporary water markets in the Goulburn system in northern Victoria. Irrigation and water trading plans are modelled for the three seasons of the irrigation year (spring, summer and autumn) via discrete stochastic programming, and contrasted against a perfect information base case. In water‐scarce environments, hydroclimatic uncertainty is found to be costly, in terms of both the efficiency of irrigation decisions and the allocation of water via the water market.     

农民用水户的农业水价承受能力研究

基于对3个典型地区68户农业用水户入户调查数据,采用支付意愿评估法分析农民用水户的水价承受能力问题。分析调查从家庭特征、水费支出情况、水费承受意愿以及对水价变动反应等方面分析和探讨了农业用水户面对不同水价政策变动的态度和应对措施。分析结果表明:水价变动对农民用水户的用水意愿和实际用水行为均能产生显著作用,其应对农业水价改革的决策行为是"理性的"和"利己的",国家制定的相关政策只有在能够充分考虑到农户的实际反应时才能发挥最大的政策效应。     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Water Management,Spanish Irrigation Communities and Colonial Engineers

In the nineteenth century, Spanish irrigation was studied by a number of British and French engineers, who sought to acquire knowledge that could be applied to India and Algeria. In their reports, they said that Spanish irrigation communities were run by the irrigators themselves in a totally democratic way, which was not true. Although such ideas had hardly any practical consequences in colonial India and Algeria, they did have important repercussions in Spain, where the irrigation institutions came to resemble the image they had been given by the reporters, with the best results. Through the work of Elinor Ostrom, the myth created by the nineteenth‐century reporters has also eventually become an argument in favour of irrigation projects in today's developing countries being managed by water users’ associations.     

Who trades water allocations? Evidence of the characteristics of early adopters in the Goulburn–Murray Irrigation District,Australia 1998–1999**

This article applies a model of innovation to analyze the characteristics of irrigators within the Goulburn–Murray Irrigation District in Australia and examines the efficiency of the early water market in the late 1990s. Using multinominal and binary logit analyses we identify the factors associated with irrigators who sold or bought water allocations during 1998–1999 and irrigators who at that time had never participated in any kind of water trading. Contrary to expectations we find that early adopters of water trading were older farmers with low farm productivity, but that in line with theory they had higher levels of education, had spent less time farming, had larger irrigated area, farm operating surplus and farm assets, owned farms that were more intensively farmed, and were more progressive in their planning. There was only weak evidence to suggest that water moved from lower value uses to higher value uses, suggesting the water allocation market had limited efficiency in its’ initial years.     

Adoption of farm‐based irrigation water‐saving techniques in the Guanzhong Plain,China

This article analyses adoption of farm‐based irrigation water saving techniques, based on a cross‐sectional data set of 357 farmers in the Guanzhong Plain, China. Approximately 83% of the farmers use at least one farm‐based water‐saving technique. However, the traditional, inefficient techniques border and furrow irrigation are still prevalent whereas the use of advanced, more efficient techniques is still rather rare. We develop and estimate an adoption model consisting of two stages: awareness of water scarcity and intensity of adoption. We find that awareness of water scarcity and financial status enhance adoption of more advanced techniques whereas access to better community‐based irrigation infrastructure discourages it. We furthermore find both community‐based irrigation infrastructure and farm‐based irrigation water‐saving techniques have mitigating effects on production risk. From the results it follows that adoption can be stimulated via financial support and via extension aimed at enhancing awareness of water scarcity.     

An empirical assessment of the value of irrigation water: the case study of Murrumbidgee catchment*

Evaluation of value of irrigation water is essential for supporting policy decision making relating to investments in the irrigation sector, efficient allocation of irrigation water and water pricing and for crafting policies to compare the variable impacts of water reform within and across sectors of the economy. This paper asks the question of how much an established irrigator would pay for water and at what price farmers planning to expand the area they have under irrigation would consider paying for the right to access water. An analytical framework is developed to estimate the net present value of both annual and perennial agricultural activities in the Murrumbidgee catchment. Using these estimates the total value of water used in Murrumbidgee catchment is estimated. An aggregate water supply curve is derived for the catchment from where water may be acquired from irrigators for environmental flows.     

Macro–micro feedback links of water management in South Africa: CGE analyses of selected policy regimes

The pressure on an already stressed water situation in South Africa is predicted to increase significantly under climate change, plans for large industrial expansion, ongoing rapid urbanization, and government programs to provide access to water to millions of previously excluded populations. This article employs a general equilibrium approach to examine the economy‐wide impacts of selected macro and water‐related policy reforms on water use and allocation, rural livelihoods, and economy at large. The analyses reveal that implicit crop‐level water quotas reduce the amount of irrigated land allocated to higher‐value horticultural crops and create higher shadow rents for production of lower‐value water‐intensive field crops, such as sugarcane and fodder. Accordingly, liberalizing local water allocation within irrigation agriculture is found to work in favor of higher‐value crops, and expand agricultural production and exports and farm employment. Allowing for water trade between irrigation and nonagricultural uses fuelled by higher competition for water from urbanization leads to greater water shadow prices for irrigation water with reduced income and employment benefits to rural households and higher gains for nonagricultural households. The analyses show difficult trade‐offs between general economic gains and higher water prices, which place serious questions on subsidizing water supply to irrigated agriculture, i.e., making irrigation subsidies much harder to justify.     

The role of common pool problems in irrigation inefficiency: a case study in groundwater pumping in Mexico

Groundwater depletion is a serious problem in Mexico. Several policy alternatives are currently being considered in order to improve the efficiency of irrigation water use so that extraction of groundwater is diminished. An understanding and quantification of different sources of inefficiency in groundwater extraction is critical for policy design. Survey data from a geographically extensive sample of irrigators is used to gauge the importance of common pool problems on input‐specific irrigation inefficiency. Results show that mechanisms of electricity cost sharing implemented in many wells have a sizable impact on inefficiency of irrigation application. Moreover, irrigation is very inelastic to its own unitary cost. Therefore, results suggest that policies aimed at eliminating electricity cost‐sharing mechanisms would be significantly more effective than electricity price‐based policies in reducing irrigation application. Results also show that well sharing does not affect groundwater pumping significantly, suggesting either a limited effect of individual pumping on water level or absence of strategic pumping by farmers sharing the wells.