The Potential Impact of Tobacco Biopharming: The Case of Human Serum Albumin

Biopharming stands to significantly expand the uses of many agricultural crops. This article examines the potential size and distribution of welfare gains from biopharming transgenic tobacco as a source of human serum albumin (HSA) using an economic surplus model under imperfect competition. The results suggest that HSA from transgenic tobacco will generate annual profits for the innovating firm of between $25 million and $49 million. On the other hand, consumers are unlikely to benefit during the patent life of the product given the innovator's market power.     

Impact of research investment on Cassava production technologies in India*

The present study was an ex‐post assessment done to validate past funding on cassava research, based on economic surplus approach. Though cassava was introduced as a food crop in Kerala, India from Brazil, it has changed its status to commercial crop at present in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh states. This was made possible due to intensive research and development efforts of different R&D organizations. Cassava technologies developed enabled in sustaining the crop in the country with the world’s highest productivity. All the cassava production technologies considered in the study resulted in an economic surplus of Rs.3585.87 million in the target domain covering Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Consumers and producers benefited to the tune of Rs.2090.64 million and Rs.1495.23 million respectively. Net present value of economic gains was estimated to be Rs.3548.76 million. Present value of research investment on cassava production technologies was Rs.37.11 million resulting in benefit cost ratio of 96.63:1 with a high internal rate of return of 104 per cent. Thus the study indicated that the research investments incurred on cassava production technologies development was highly economical and provided evidence to the policy makers that supporting the research investment on underground, under exploited tropical root crops like cassava is an economically viable proposition.     

Mathematical optimisation of drainage and economic land use for target water and salt yields*

Land managers in upper catchments are being asked to make expensive changes in land use, such as by planting trees, to attain environmental service targets, including reduced salt loads in rivers, to meet needs of downstream towns, farms and natural habitats. End‐of‐valley targets for salt loads have sometimes been set without a quantitative model of cause and effect regarding impacts on water yields, economic efficiency or distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders. This paper presents a method for calculating a ‘menu’ of technically feasible options for changes from current to future mean water yields and salt loads from upstream catchments having local groundwater flow systems, and the land‐use changes to attain each of these options at minimum cost. It sets the economic stage for upstream landholders to negotiate with downstream parties future water‐yield and salt‐load targets, on the basis of what it will cost to supply these ecosystem services.     

Tradable water saving certificates to improve urban water use efficiency: an ex‐ante evaluation in a French case study

This paper proposes a system of tradable Water Saving Certificates to improve the efficiency of water allocation between Drinking Water Utilities at river basin level. A market institutional set‐up, inspired from recent policy developments in the energy sector, is proposed. An original analytical price‐endogenous model is developed to simulate trade intensity, equilibrium price and efficiency gains in this urban water market. The economic model is implemented in a French case study using mathematical programming. It is used for conducting an ex‐ante evaluation of trade possibilities and efficiency gains, considering different spatial restrictions aimed at controlling environmental externalities. Our modelling exercise provides evidence of the benefits of the proposed Water Saving Certificate scheme.     

Economic effects of water recovery on irrigated agriculture in the Murray‐Darling Basin*

In October 2010, the Murray‐Darling Basin Authority (MDBA) proposed that a range of 3000–4000 GL per year, on average, of additional water be made available for the environment in the Murray‐Darling Basin (MDB) to mitigate the effects of what it considers to be inadequate environmental flows. To help quantify the costs of this water reallocation, a hydro‐economic model was constructed based on the 19 regions of the MDB. The model results indicate the following: (i) substantial reductions in surface water extractions of up to 4400 GL per year impose only a moderate reduction on net profits in irrigated agriculture, Basin wide, given competitive water markets, but the effects are much more pronounced in particular regions/catchments and (ii) the costs of the water reallocation are comparable with the amount budgeted by the Australian government to acquire water from willing sellers and increase environmental flows if inter‐regional water trade is unrestricted.     

Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: the Maipo river basin

Increasing competition for water across sectors increases the importance of the river basin as the appropriate unit of analysis to address the challenges facing water resources management; and modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policy makers in their resource allocation decisions. This paper introduces an integrated economic‐hydrologic modeling framework that accounts for the interactions between water allocation, farmer input choice, agricultural productivity, non‐agricultural water demand, and resource degradation in order to estimate the social and economic gains from improvement in the allocation and efficiency of water use. The model is applied to the Maipo river basin in Chile. Economic benefits to water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including markets in tradable water rights, based on production and benefit functions with respect to water for the agricultural and urban‐industrial sectors.     

Estimating the Potential Benefits of New Health Claims in Canada: The Case of Soluble Fiber and Soy Protein

Growing awareness of the link between diet and health has spurred growth in the functional food sector. Health Canada regulates allowable health claims on food products, and in recent years has approved health claims linking the consumption of soluble fiber from barley (2012) and psyllium (2011) to reduced/lower low‐density lipoprotein (LDL)‐cholesterol levels, a major risk factor for heart disease. A health claim linking consumption of soy protein to reduced risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) is still under consideration. Using a cost‐of‐illness approach, this paper estimates the potential economic benefits of allowing health claims for soluble fiber and soy protein in terms of reductions in the direct and indirect costs of CHD. Parameters for the economic analysis are drawn from a meta‐analysis of scientific studies examining the effect of soluble fiber and soy protein on LDL‐cholesterol levels, as well as other scientific literature. While a barley soluble fiber health claim yields nontrivial benefits in a base case scenario equal to CAD$105 million annually and ranging from $42 million to $238 million in low and high scenarios, the potential benefits of a soy protein health claim appear to be several magnitudes larger at $549 million annually in the base case and ranging from $220 million to $1.25 billion in low/high scenarios. Given the relatively slow regulatory approval process for new health claims, there may be value in using economic estimates of potential gains to help prioritize health claims approval processes.     

Domestic and trade impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease on the Australian beef industry

Australia is the sixth largest producer of beef and the second largest exporter of beef. Average beef exports from Australia are approximately 65 per cent of the total amount of beef produced, about 1.3 million tonnes. Australia is particularly vulnerable to diseases that are not endemic to the country and could close or disrupt its export markets for beef. In this study, we construct a bioeconomic optimisation model of the Australian beef industry that captures production and consumption decisions, domestically and internationally, and the impacts on the beef industry of a potentially catastrophic disease, foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD). This study analyses localised to large‐scale outbreaks and suggests that changes in economic surplus because of FMD range from a positive net gain of $57 million to a net loss of $1.7 billion, with impacts on producers and consumers varying depending on the location of the outbreak, control levels and the nature of any trade ban.     

Economic assessment of acquiring water for environmental flows in the Murray Basin*

This article is an economic analysis of reallocating River Murray Basin water from agriculture to the environment with and without the possibility of interregional water trade. Acquiring environmental flows as an equal percentage of water allocations from all irrigation regions in the Basin is estimated to reduce returns to irrigation. When the same volume of water is taken from selected low-value regions only, the net revenue reduction is less. In all scenarios considered, net revenue gains from freeing trade are estimated to outweigh the negative revenue effects of reallocating water for environmental flows. The model accounts for how stochastic weather affects market water demand, supply and requirements for environmental flows. Net irrigation revenue is estimated to be 75 million less than the baseline level for a scenario involving reallocating a constant volume of water for the environment in both wet and dry years. For a more realistic scenario involving more water for the environment in wet and less in dry years, estimated net revenue loss is reduced by 48 per cent to 39 million. Finally, the external salinity-related costs of water trading are estimated at around 1 million per annum, a quite modest amount compared to the direct irrigation benefits of trade.     

Foot‐and‐mouth disease and the Mexican cattle industry

The objective of this article is to analyze the domestic and international effects of a hypothetical foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) outbreak in the Mexican cattle industry. A discrete time dynamic optimization model of the Mexican cattle sector is specified, and linked to domestic and international markets. Economic consequences of FMD outbreaks are simulated over time and under different scenarios. Specific findings and general policy recommendations are provided. The study reports a range of outbreaks from localized to large scale and suggests that changes in economic surplus due to FMD range from a positive net gain of $0.89 to $1.6 billion to a net loss of about $67 billion, depending on the specific mitigation strategy and outbreak scenario.     

Potential impacts of Bt eggplant on economic surplus and farmers' health in India

In this article, the potential impacts of Bt eggplant technology in Indian agriculture are analyzed. Several proprietary Bt hybrids are likely to be commercialized in the near future. Based on field trial data, it is shown that the technology can significantly reduce insecticide applications and increase effective yields. Comprehensive farm-survey data are used to project farm-level effects and future adoption rates. Simulations show that the aggregate economic surplus gains of Bt hybrids could be around US$108 million per year. Consumers will capture a large share of these gains, but farmers and the innovating company will benefit too. As the company has also shared its technology with the public sector, Bt open-pollinated varieties might become available with a certain time lag. This would make the technology more accessible, especially for resource-poor farmers, entailing further improvements in welfare and distribution effects. The wider implications of the private–public technology transfer are discussed. Furthermore, the potential benefits for farmers' health resulting from reduced insecticide applications are examined, using an econometric model and a cost-of-illness approach. These benefits are worth an additional $3–4 million per year, yet they constitute only a small fraction of the technology's environmental and health externalities. More research is needed for comprehensive impact analysis.     

Examining demand for urban river rehabilitation in Indonesia: Insights from a spatially explicit discrete choice experiment

The demand for urban river rehabilitation can be measured through stated preference surveys such as choice experiments, providing information on the welfare estimates of a particular approach. We deploy such a technique in the context of plans to rehabilitate a major river in Jakarta, Indonesia. The current plan focuses on widening and canalizing the downstream segment of the river within Jakarta’s administrative boundary. We hypothesize that residents would demand (and thus be willing to pay for) additional components of an ecological rehabilitation program in the form of riverside park space and upstream forest conservation outside of Jakarta’s jurisdiction. We develop a spatially-explicit discrete choice experiment in which households register their preferences for channel widening, park space, forest conservation, and a monthly fee to fund the rehabilitation. Using mixed logit models we find significant and substantial demand for both park space and forest conservation, with a lower bound on the total willingness to pay (WTP) of greater than US $4 million per year for park space and nearly US $6 million per year to support reforestation in the upper catchment. These estimates are based on households within the catchment, but we find that demand did not seem to decay with distance so the upper bound on total WTP could be substantially higher. We also find that household income level has a strong effect on marginal WTP for forest conservation, minimal effect on marginal WTP for park space, and that location along the river influenced WTP for park space and channel widening. This provides further evidence that there is substantial demand for river rehabilitation in developing world cities, and that choice experiments can provide information relevant to land use planning.     

基于水量分配的流域生态补偿研究——以小清河流域为例

目的]水量分配和生态补偿是我国流域生态经济可持续发展中的两个重要模块,有助于解决水资源利用冲突,实现水资源的高效配置。[方法]以小清河流域为例,将两者进行有效衔接,采用AHP法和熵值法进行科学分水的基础上,根据应分水量分摊上游的保护成本,结合各区域的实际用水和节水贡献进行调整,按照逐级补偿方式,测算流域各区域的水量综合补偿额。[结果]按照公平、效率、可持续的原则,2016年小清河上游至下游各区域的水量分配额分别为:滨州邹平7 350.03万m~3、淄博6 568.84万m~3、滨州博兴4 411.18万m~3、东营9 620.53万m~3、潍坊6 649.42万m~3;济南作为上游水源地为整条流域供水获得补偿2.66亿元,滨州邹平段因水量维护贡献突出、正外部效益外溢获得补偿2.020 2亿元,淄博、滨州博兴、东营和潍坊段则因其超量用水各需支付22.59万元、1.33亿元、1.11亿元和2.27亿元。[结论]小清河下游地区应增强水量维护意识,促进产业结构向绿色转型升级,减少用水量。此外,今后应探索多元化的补偿资金来源,提高用水效率,实现流域生态与经济的和谐发展。     

The Economic Impact of U.S. Tobacco Products Exports

The economic impacts of increasing U.S. tobacco exports on the U.S. economy are analyzed. Simulation of expanded exports to South Korea and Thailand are conducted. Over $1.1 billion in economic activity and 12,000 jobs were associated with tobacco export increases to these countries. Declining raw tobacco exports to Thailand, however, offset gains associated with greater cigarette sales. The resultant losses totaled $5.3 million in economic activity and over 378 jobs in the U.S.     

Welfare Gains from Quality Certification of Infant Foods: Results from a Market Experiment in Mali

In low–income countries, malnutrition is often most severe among infants of six to twenty–four months. They need higher–density foods than the family diet, but density is a credence attribute. We hypothesize that the premium now paid for heavily advertised brands reflects demand for quality assurance, which could be provided at lower cost to competing firms through third–party certification. We use a new market experiment to find that mothers' average willingness–to–pay for certification is about $1.75/kg, or four times its cost, so that total economic–surplus gains from introducing certification to Mali would be on the order of $1 million annually.     

Economic impacts of closing national forests for commercial timber production in Florida and Liberty County

The paper assesses the impacts of a proposed policy, which suggests a ban on commercial timber harvest in the US national forests. Specifically, this study examines the effect of this policy on a small forest dependent county (Liberty County) in Florida and Florida State by applying a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results indicate that the proposed policy would decrease overall economic output by $5 million in Liberty County. The decrease in economic output at the state level in response to this policy is only $1 million. Results suggest that the welfare index in response to the proposed policy will drop by 2.9% in Liberty County while the change at the state level is negligible. At the county level, where limited alternate opportunities for labor and capital mobility, the negative effect of the proposed policy is shown to have a multiplying effect.     

Pareto-Improving Water Management over Space and Time: The Honolulu Case

We model welfare gains from efficient allocation of groundwater over space and time relative to the status quo policy of financial cost recovery. In order to promote political feasibility, an intertemporal compensation plan is devised that renders the reform Pareto-improving. Gainers from the reform finance the compensation in proportion to their benefits through a block-pricing scheme. For the Honolulu case, only 7% of the $441 million in gains to winners is needed to compensate losers from the reform. Future winners from the reform also repay the deficit created by the compensation package, much as state and local governments finance capital improvements.     

Global trade impacts of increasing Europe's bioenergy demand

European governments are rapidly turning to biomass to comply with the EU's legislated renewable energy targets for 2020 and 2030. To do so, EU member states will likely have to increase imports of biomass from timber rich regions, which will undoubtedly disrupt international wood product markets. In this study, a static global forest trade model of coniferous wood products is used to examine the effects of expanded demand for wood pellets in Europe to generate reliable electricity. Positive mathematical programming (PMP) is used to calibrate the model to 2012 bilateral trade flows. To assess the impact of increased wood-pellet demand on global forest products, we consider a scenario where EU demand for wood pellets doubles. Model results suggest increases in the world prices of industrial roundwood (1%), particleboard ($34/m³), fibreboard ($30/m³), pulp ($65/t) and pellets (71% to 128%), while the prices of sawnwood and plywood & veneer are projected to fall by $12/m³ and $4/m³, respectively. The gains and losses are unevenly distributed between timber rich and timber poor regions; Russia, Canada and the U.S. experience large net welfare gains of $706 million, $544 million and $416 million, respectively, while Asia loses $1.8 billion. In the forest products sector, the gains outweigh losses with economic benefits increasing by some $4.9 billion, but this is a cost to the consumers of electricity and/or taxpayers in the regions implementing these renewable energy policies. The price of wood pellets is projected to rise between $107 and $154 per tonne. The findings highlight the need to account for the interconnections among softwood forest products globally.     

流域合作治污与环保宣传动态协调策略

为提高流域环境治理效果并完善跨行政区流域环境管理机制,采用多主体微分博弈方法,以投入污染治理成本的上游地方政府和进行环保宣传的下游地方政府组成的流域系统为研究对象,研究上、下游地方政府治污减排与环保宣传的合作问题。结果表明:中央政府的补贴政策和地方政府间的生态补偿政策可以有效提升流域环境治理,但提升效果受到地方政府的边际收益等多重因素的影响;科学合理的分配契约可使补偿方与受偿方利益平衡,有利于提高各利益主体进行合作环境治理的积极性;中央政府可以根据不同的博弈策略和收益分配协议,制定差异化的补贴方案,以更好地提升流域环境治理效果。     

Assessing the returns to R&D on perennial crops: the costs and benefits of Pierce's disease research in the California winegrape industry

Several complicating issues arise in evaluating the returns to research into varietal improvements for perennial crops compared with annual crops. We elucidate and address these issues in the context of a case study of research aiming to develop varieties that are resistant to Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevines. PD imposes costs of over $100 million per year on the California grape industry, even with public PD control programs in place. Research projects to develop PD resistant varieties of grapevines are at various stages of completion. We describe the economic problems posed by PD, document the research programs undertaken to address the disease and present an economic assessment of the returns to the investment, which are conditional on other policies. Using a simulation model of the market for California winegrapes, we estimate the benefits from research, development and adoption of PD‐resistant vines as ranging from $4 million to $129 million annually over a 50‐year horizon, depending on the length of the R&D lag and the rate of adoption. In addition to these specific quantitative results the paper offers insight into the broader question of economic evaluation of damage‐mitigation technology for perennial crops.