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1.
Traditional rural biotopes (TRBs) are threatened habitats that host significant biodiversity and several ecosystem services, and depend on active management such as low-intensity grazing. The current study explores private landowners’ decision-making on TRB management and abandonment within a social-ecological system framework. We provide insight into supporting resilience of TRB systems in the face of agricultural modernization. Using a mixed methods approach with content analysis and Q analysis, we demonstrate that TRB management fosters cultural, biological, aesthetic, and utilitarian values. These are reflected in different ways through conservationist’s, profit-oriented farmer’s, landscape manager’s, and landscape admirer’s discourses on TRB management. Overall, management reinforces landowners’ place attachment, and reflects an approach to landscapes as spatial representations of cultural heritage and identity over multiple generations. Landowners consider TRB pasturage and its social-ecological outcomes motivating and rewarding. Giving up grazing cattle and perceived bureaucracy of national agri-environment scheme contribute to TRB abandonment. Landowners point out that current policies detach TRB management from what is seen as “regular agriculture”, and the focus on monetary compensation bypasses the multiple values tied to TRB management. Based on our results, we suggest that promoting TRBs requires reconfiguring the current arrangement of remedial management payments and adopting a more participatory governance approach. Locally, resilience of TRB systems relies on the connections between landowners and landscapes that foster sense of place and landscape identity, which can be supported by knowledge sharing and collaborative grazing efforts among landowners.  相似文献   

2.
In a chestnut belt in the northern Apennines (Italy), we interviewed current (n = 52) and potential growers from a younger generation (n = 57), to assess what factors are likely to drive their willingness to continue chestnut culture. In 35 cases, local appraisals of chestnut stand disturbances were also contrasted with expert assessments. More than half of current growers were confident about the future of chestnut cultivation. This proportion decreased with grower’s age and experienced issues, while slightly increased in presence of multifunctional management and support from family members. Although most growers resulted highly capable of diagnosing problems, expert advice significantly contributed to driving positive perceptions. About half of the younger interviewees also expressed interest in growing chestnut. This proportion was higher for respondents who are exposed to chestnut culture within the family, and who value cultural services above other ecosystem services (ES) of forests. Overall, passion for the activity and attachment to local heritage were the most influential motivation for both categories of respondents. We outline policy actions that may encourage the continuation of chestnut management and, more generally, conservation of cultural landscapes in mountain areas. Possible measures include financial incentives (e.g., payments for ES), tighter integration of traditional and expert knowledge in the production chain, and public recognition of the value of local heritage in land management. Broader support to maintaining services and infrastructure in rural areas, however, will also be a pre-condition.  相似文献   

3.
Successfully integrating human activities with ecosystem conservation forms the foundation of sustainability and is key to maintaining biological diversity. This is especially important in privately-owned lands in the U.S., which harbor high levels of biodiversity yet are often vulnerable to habitat degradation and loss. This study analyzes recreation as a sustainable use on private property, focusing on wildlife-associated recreation, defined here as fishing, hunting and wildlife watching. Eighteen national surveys implemented by three U.S. government agencies spanning 1999–2013 were analyzed to provide baseline information and an assessment of the conservation impact of recreation. Results show that approximately 440.1 million acres of private land, ∼22% of the contiguous land area of the U.S., are either leased or owned for wildlife-associated recreation. Land utilized for hunting accounts for 81% of that total. Approximately 33% of private forestland, 18% of private grazing land and 4% of private cropland is used to earn revenue from recreational activities. Annual spending for wildlife-associated recreation on private land is estimated at $814 million in day-use fees, $1.48 billion for long-term leases, and $14.8 billion to own land primarily for recreation (2011 dollars). Hunters own or lease properties of larger size classes than anglers or wildlife-watchers, indicating that hunting may provide a greater economic incentive for maintaining large unfragmented properties that provide a variety of conservation benefits. On grazing and cropland, landowners who earn income from recreation are significantly more likely to participate in government conservation programs (p < 0.001) and to pay for private conservation practices (p = 0.08). This provides support that recreation incentivizes conservation at higher rates than agricultural activities alone. Three policy measures that could further enhance conservation benefits of recreation are discussed.  相似文献   

4.
Serious soil erosion occurred in the South Downs National Park, southern England in the years 1982–2006 and details of around 400 sites are contained in a database. In 2010 we revisited 85 of the most serious sites where erosion of >10 m3 ha−1 y−1 had been recorded in order to assess land use change and any conservation measures undertaken. At 79% of the sites land use change had resulted in a reduction in the risk of erosion, most notably at 28 sites with a shift to permanent grass from winter cereals. At only 21% of sites was the risk of erosion unchanged. Twenty two farmers responsible for 66 of the sites were interviewed. Land management practices had changed on all of the fields of interest to this study since the time of the serious erosion events, to those which have the potential to lower soil erosion risk. Sixteen interviewees claimed that erosion was a motivating reason for changing their practices, due to either experiencing on or on- and off-farm impacts firsthand (12), having knowledge or suspicion of serious erosion having occurred on their land prior to their management (three), or having no knowledge of any serious erosion on their land but just wanting to reduce overall erosion risk (one). Amongst the main changes reported are changes of land use from winter cereals to grass or to overwinter stubble which have undoubtedly reduced the risk of erosion. However, some changed practices claimed by farmers, such as along-the-contour-working, earlier sowing and the use of rollers may be of little value. Furthermore, deeper analysis of farmers’ motivations regarding changes in land management practices suggests a complex picture in which a range of socio-economic influences come into play over time including financial incentives offered by agri-environmental schemes which were found to be an important driver of change. Future changes in farming economics may therefore undermine the reduction in erosion risk in the longer term.  相似文献   

5.
The rate and extent of adoption of conservation practices by farmers is influenced, in principle, by characteristics of the practices and those of the farmers. Governments use policy instruments to increase the rate of adoption of practices which generate public benefits if it is deemed that privately optimal adoption rates will not lead to publicly optimal conservation outcomes. Recent nation-wide conservation programs in Australia have attracted criticism for low levels of effectiveness and efficiency. Could it be that program design has ignored key adoption factors, in particular characteristics of the target audience? If adoption is subject to personal factors, such as the motivations for farming, then it is likely that so are farmers’ responses to policy approaches and instruments. In this case study, surveys were conducted of farmers in three regions within the tropical savannas of northern Australia, where land-use systems are characterized by large-scale broad-acre beef grazing enterprises. Inter alia, these surveys collected data on graziers’ motivations, impediments to adoption of conservation practices, and perceived effectiveness of policy instruments in overcoming impediments. The research found that graziers had a very high level of conservation and lifestyle motivation and were motivated to lesser extents by financial/economic and social considerations, pointing to a strong stewardship ethic of graziers, or altruistic motif. Motivational profiles were significantly correlated with farmers’ perceptions about what constrained them from implementing conservation based management systems. Motivational profiles also explained differences in farmers’ perceptions of and stated propensity to interact with policy instruments, particularly at a regional scale and in the context of historical government interventions. On the basis of the empirical evidence presented, governments would be well advised to harness the diverse set of aspirations and motivations of farmers when designing conservation programs rather than. In particular, conservation programs need to take advantage of farmers’ stewardship ethic for maximum effectiveness and efficiency, and minimize the risk of crowding out intrinsic motivation and altruistic behaviours.  相似文献   

6.
The links between farming practices and biodiversity is well established. This paper develops a farm typology based on eighty hill sheep farmers on the biodiversity rich uplands of the Iveragh peninsula, SW Ireland. Despite outward appearances considerable diversity was found to exist within their livelihood strategies and farming styles. Using a combination of a detailed farm management survey and grazing state evaluation, the farms were classified into four distinct types – environmental stewards, support optimisers, traditionalists and production maximisers. Our results suggest that knowledge of the different farming styles is critical for more effective biodiversity conservation and for the design of more targeted agricultural and agri-environment policies. We suggest the need to move away from the ‘one size fits all’ approach, which on the Iveragh currently rewards the most overgrazed farms with the highest agri-environment payments.  相似文献   

7.
Why are organised shoots involving birds that are farm-reared and subsequently released a dividing issue in several countries? As a contribution to answering this question the paper reports a national survey of landowners (n = 1207), hunters (n = 1130) and the general public (n = 1001) in Denmark. While there was broad agreement across all three groups that recreational hunting of naturally occurring “surplus” wildlife is acceptable, the release of farm-reared game birds for shooting was a dividing issue, both within the groups and between them. The majority of participants (51%) in the survey representing the general public were against the practice; a majority of hunters (61%) were in favour of it; and landowner approval rates lay between these two poles. Respondents with a “mutualist” or “distanced” wildlife value orientation according to the definitions by Teel et al. (2005) consistently displayed a more negative attitude to rear and release shooting than those with a “utilitarian” orientation. The differences in attitude could not be explained in terms solely of underlying concerns about nature conservation and biodiversity protection. Concerns about the behaviour of the released birds, and about hunting “culture” and regulatory measures, also informed the participants’ attitudes. The regulatory framework governing shooting based on the release of farm-reared birds could reflect a wider range of concerns than those hitherto acknowledged.  相似文献   

8.
While appreciation of the fundamental role biodiversity plays in underpinning the long-term sustainability of agricultural systems is growing, international commitments to preserve and protect this natural resource have not yet been achieved. Loss and degradation of farmland habitats are an important contributor to the continued decline of biodiversity. Despite this, little information is available regarding the diversity and ecological condition of farmland habitats in Europe. Indeed, where habitat data are available, this is usually at a very broad landscape scale rather than farm scale. Coupled with this, strategies to increase agricultural output in response to growing global population, will likely place increasing pressure on farmland biodiversity. Knowledge and ongoing monitoring of farmland habitat type and extent is a prerequisite for the future protection of much of Europe’s biodiversity. Here we report the findings of a national scale survey of farmland habitat diversity in Ireland.Detailed surveys of farm habitats and management practices (system, stocking rate agri-environment scheme participation status and organic N and P inputs) were undertaken on 118 farms in three regions of the Republic of Ireland (RoI). Recorded farm habitats were subsequently digitised on orthophotography. The resulting ground truthed data from the total surveyed area of 3688 ha, were then used, together with satellite imagery, to classify the habitat composition of a further approximately 87,000 ha of the surrounding landscape.Results revealed that at individual farm scale, an average of 73% of the land surveyed comprised agriculturally productive (mainly improved grassland) habitats. Marginally productive habitats (mainly extensively managed grasslands) accounted for an average of 11% of farm area, while other semi-natural habitats (mainly hedgerows) accounted for an average of 13%, with the remaining ca. 3% under build ground. Results from the classification at the wider landscape scale showed a similarly substantial incidence of non-intensively managed habitats. However, at both farm and landscape scales, habitat diversity was found to vary markedly between different regions and farming systems.This study represents one of a very small number that currently exist, where farm scale habitat and management data have been collected. From the few that are available, semi-natural habitat cover has been found to account for an average farm area of 1–12%. Therefore, our data present a relatively positive picture in terms of the intensity, scale and impact of Irish farming on landscape heterogeneity. However, as in other parts of the world, agricultural expansion and intensification to meet increased global food supply will necessitate careful monitoring of the impact of these changes on the structure of farmed landscapes. This study provides a novel approach for the collection of such monitoring data at farm scale, and illustrates how such data can be reliably up-scaled to landscape level.  相似文献   

9.
We use a framed field experiment considering hypothetical stocking rate decisions made by grazing enterprise managers and estimate non‐linear multinomial logit models for a range of nested non‐expected utility and expected utility models. The risk and decision‐bias parameters for five models estimated for individual responses are shown to be significantly related to land condition but in ways which suggest behavioural aspects of decision making are critical in understanding land management and stocking rate decisions. Our results show that individual heterogeneity in decision making amongst farming groups is likely to be a significant source of variation in farming intensity and technology adoption decisions. This heterogeneity does not appear to be a reflection of socio‐demographic characteristics. Furthermore, decision functions appear to be biased toward selection of simpler representative functions (e.g. Expected Utility) for sample averages. This suggests that experimental findings that Expected Utility is representative for actual decisions may be due to sample averaging rather than reflect actual behaviour.  相似文献   

10.
Land use and cover (LUC) change is a major driver of ecosystem service loss worldwide. In response, policymakers have designed conservation strategies that incentivize the establishment and maintenance of LUC types associated with higher ecosystem service provision. Many of these policies also aim to promote social and economic goals such as reducing poverty. Attempts to measure the impact of policy-driven LUC change on stakeholders typically focus only on economic outcomes for landowning participants or aggregate the socio-economic outcomes of diverse groups. In this study, we applied local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by beekeepers in Costa Rica to understand the impact of policy-driven LUC change on this specific group of often non-landowning stakeholders. Beekeeping is a globally important rural livelihood and provides pollination services to crops and wild plants. We synthesized beekeeper LEK using a mixed-methods approach including apiary mapping exercises (n = 215 apiaries), questionnaires (n = 50 participants), and follow-up interviews (n = 21 participants). Our study revealed that some policy-driven LUC changes have limited beekeepers’ access to preferred land uses, such as secondary and mature forests with native trees. Participants reported concern for their livelihoods due to policy-driven spatial and temporal change of floral resources via the establishment of tree plantations, changes in pasture management, and laws that prohibit beekeeping in national parks and reserves. Our study provides evidence of unintended outcomes from land use policies, including Payment for Ecosystem Services, with disproportionate negative impacts on non-landowning residents who depend on natural resources in the landscape for their livelihoods. Our study illustrates potential inequality rising from current incentive mechanisms associated with Payments for Ecosystem Services and other conservation policies and calls for policymakers to consider LUC change impacts on non-landowning stakeholders.  相似文献   

11.
Agriculture is the largest type of land use in the UK, accounting for about 77 per cent of the total area, compared with an average 50 per cent for the EU27. But in common with most high-income countries, agriculture's contribution to UK GDP and employment is low, at about 0.5 and 1.8 per cent, respectively, although the regional importance of the sector (and its associated food and farming industries) varies considerably.Of the 17.5 million ha used for agriculture, about 28 per cent is allocated to crops, and 67 per cent is grassland. The grassland includes 4.4 million ha of sole-owned rough grazing and 1.1 million ha of common land in mainly upland “disadvantaged areas,” primarily used for beef and sheep production. This has a major influence on land use, especially in the northern and western parts of the UK.From the 1930s until the mid-1980s, UK policy promoted increases in agricultural productivity to feed the nation from its own resources. An array of income and production support measures encouraged intensive farming, including a relative switch to arable farming in eastern areas. Since the early-1990s, policies have sought simultaneously to make UK agriculture internationally competitive and environmentally benign. These policies, evident in the Agenda 2000 Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy, point the way forward for the future. It is likely that a greater distinction will emerge between policies to protect natural resources and enhance the flow of non-market ecosystem services from rural land, and agriculture and food policies intended to encourage an appropriate proportion of national food requirements to be met from domestic sources.It seems likely that over the next 50 years, the UK's land area will be required to deliver an increasingly diverse range of private and public goods to meet growing human needs and aspirations. This will require a balance of policy-driven goals and market forces. It will also need a much improved understanding of the trade-offs between food production and environmental goals and of the institutional arrangements required to achieve a balance of economic, social and environmental outcomes.  相似文献   

12.
To assist pest management planning, the Canadian Forest Service developed the Spruce Budworm Decision Support System (SBW DSS), which quantifies the timber supply impacts of protecting stands against spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem.) defoliation. We incorporated protection costs and timber product values in this system to evaluate economic aspects of spruce budworm control. The analysis allows pest managers to evaluate the degree to which the traditional volume protection priority objective corresponds to three economic criteria, namely the volume protected per dollar protection program cost, the benefit–cost ratio of the protection program, and the net present value of the protection program. Twelve alternative spruce budworm protection strategies were analyzed on Crown License 1 in New Brunswick and Prince Albert Forest Management Area (PAFMA) in Saskatchewan, based on a number of protection program extents and intensities. For both landbases under base-case market conditions, the largest, most intensive protection scenario provided the highest amount of volume saved and net present value (at 3.94 Mm3 and $39.98 M for PAFMA, and 4.04 Mm3 and $41.49 M for License 1, respectively) while smaller, less-intensive programs provided the highest benefit–cost ratios and volume protected per present value dollar of protection cost (at 8.22 and 0.52 m3/$ for PAFMA, and 10.26 and 0.65 m3/$ for License 1, respectively). Sensitivity analysis on product values and protection costs revealed that smaller, less-intensive programs could also produce the highest net present values when costs are higher and/or product values lower. These results highlight the conditions under which pest managers should consider deviating from their traditional strategy of maximizing volume saved to one that maximizes the economic returns of protection.  相似文献   

13.
Grasslands have a multi-layer protection function for nature, biodiversity and climate. These functions can be fostered by an adapted management on grassland farms. Promoting nature protection alongside agricultural production is an aim of European agricultural policy. However, a number of studies indicate that existing Agri-environment measures (AEM) are not as effective as assumed, mainly because they are not sufficiently used by farmers. We investigated the view of grassland farmers on nature conservation and on existing AEM in four distinct regions on a west to east gradient in the North German Plain. We conducted a survey on 82 grassland farms inquiring basic farm data and asking questions on general agricultural issues and nature protection. The results indicate that the majority of all respondents is generally interested in nature conservation and believes it to be of concern for every farmer. In contrast, only a minority of grassland farmers is using the existing AEM to the full extend on their own farm. By applying the concept of farming styles, we classified farmers into four groups, namely Traditionalist, Idealist, Modernist, and Yield Optimizer. These farming styles groups differ in farm and management parameters, general attitudes towards agricultural issues, farming objectives and economic success. We found that in our survey the farming styles groups differ in their attitude towards nature conservation. However, they do not differ in the adoption of AEM and have different reasons for not taking part. We state that for a better implementation of AEM into agricultural practice a better communication, which is adapted to the different ways that farmers manage their farm and think and feel, is needed. Consequently, AEM need to be revised as well.  相似文献   

14.
Three nationwide grassland conservation programs have been implemented in Inner Mongolia since 2000. All aim to relieve grazing pressure, hence to reverse the grassland degradation trend. The different timings and spatial configurations of these programs present an unusual setting of quasi-natural policy experiment for exploring their effectiveness and interactions with other drivers on a regional scale. In this paper, a spatial panel model was developed to examine the effects of the programs on vegetation rehabilitation, meanwhile to detect the spatial interdependent relationship among grassland management units occurring in the process of program implementation. The methodology used a panel dataset of SPOT-VEGETATION NDVI data, multi-station surface meteorological observations, and socio-economic statistics across 88 counties from 2000 to 2013. The modeling results suggested that these programs in general significantly facilitated grassland vegetation rehabilitation. Enrollment in the Beijing–Tianjin Wind/Sand Source Control Program and in the Grazing Withdrawal Program was predicted to increase the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) value by an amount equivalent to the effects of 136 mm and 56 mm additional annual precipitation, respectively. The positive and significant coefficient of spatial lag term indicated that there was a synergistic relationship in the vegetation variations of neighboring counties, and a unit increase in the weighted sum of all neighboring counties’ NDVI values could approximately increase a target county's NDVI value by 0.2, after controlling for other factors’ effects. Certain spatial spillover mechanisms may function to generate this effect, such as benign competition, mutual cooperation and coordination, or sharing of successful experiences among neighboring counties in carrying out the programs. Nevertheless, the actual mechanisms need to be confirmed by field surveys in future studies.  相似文献   

15.
Being fertile lands, wetlands have been managed for traditional agriculture over millennia. However, the integrity and ecosystem services of wetlands are being jeopardized by intensive land-use comprising of drainage and excessive disturbance. An adhoc and intensive use of wetlands, without preserving ecological integrity is causing ecosystem disservices and threatening conversion of a large soil organic carbon (SOC) sink into a net source. Wetlands in the tropical parts of the world are distributed unevenly and represent ∼3% of the total world land area. Due to stagnancy and even reduction in rice (Oryza sativa) yield of many agricultural regions, there is a need for additional and alternative land-uses which can raise the global rice production to ∼1 billion Mg (megagram = 106g = metric ton) by 2050 from ∼497 million Mg now. Wetlands can be a viable option to advance global food security because of high soil fertility and vast geographical distribution. A ‘3-tier rice production system’ is proposed herein based on specific hydrological niche to advance global food security without degrading the ecosystem services of wetlands. In addition to increasing agronomic yield, the proposed modus operandi can also improve the livelihood security of farmers through an additional income streams by: (i) trading of SOC credits generated through adoption of conservation agriculture in littoral zones, and (ii) promoting fish and duckery culture in conjunction with deepwater rice farming. Furthermore, the proposed strategies will also set in motion the process of restoration of wetlands while enhancing C sink capacity of the ecosystems.  相似文献   

16.
The study examines citizens’ opinions about one crucial factor: the fire that affects the Brazilian savannah “Cerrado”. The paper aims at introducing a new tool that facilitates the assessment of people’s behaviour in order to support practitioners and decision makers to develop management strategies that fostering the environmental conservation, economic growth and human wellbeing.The study applies the network analysis in order to analyse the citizens’ opinions about causes of fire ignition and suppression activities for firefighting evoked by local inhabitants during the face-to-face interviews.The main finding carried out in this work is the usefulness of a cognitive map for synthesising a variety of people’s beliefs. Furthermore, the study reveals the general lack of awareness among people concerning fire use and management and the careless use of fire in rural activities. The chi-square test reveals that natural and physical dimensions affect society’s beliefs with statistical significance p < 0.001.  相似文献   

17.
In 2011 Indonesia decreed a moratorium on forest licenses over 69 million hectares (Mha) in order to suspend haphazard forest exploitation. However, only ∼12–22 Mha were actually afforded new protection from licensing. Herein I observe a further 5.5 Mha of moratorium area overlapping forest licenses and therefore subject to excisement from the moratorium. These 5.5 Mha, like the 4.5 Mha excised from the moratorium to date, are not readily explicable outside of small government committees. This highlights the quasi-transparency of the mapping process: the moratorium map is widely disseminated, yet its base data and decisions made on their basis are guarded. Implementing ministries seek to comply with reforms while simultaneously protecting their administrations from upset – an ultimately compromised position with tangible implications. This has undermined acceptance by the inherently sceptical Indonesian conservation community; yet its highly critical ‘watch dog’ role has ironically contributed by heightening government wariness. The way out of this dynamic is for the ministries to render all data public and, critically, be prepared to weather the inevitable wave of data-fuelled attack for the public good.  相似文献   

18.
Concerns about the sustainability of an ageing farming population have brought interest in so called entry-exit issues in policy circles. Policy interventions to date have offered limited scope in stimulating farm transfer in UK, however, the increase in unconventional tenures which include partnerships, share farming and contract farming (collectively called joint ventures) would appear to offer new opportunities for those wishing to enter or leave farming. In recognition of this the Fresh Start initiative in Cornwall set up a matchmaking element with the aim of identifying and facilitating potential joint ventures agreements between new entrants and older farmers. The emphasis was on setting up long-term arrangements that would enable the new entrant to ‘buy into’ an existing farm business, gradually taking over managerial control. This paper examines the processes of matching partners for the possible formation of farm joint ventures, using qualitative data derived from interviews with the participants, deliverers and stakeholders involved in the matchmaking element of this initiative. The results reveal that there is a deep rooted reluctance amongst participants in the initiative to enter formal long term joint ventures due to differing motivations, expectations, and concerns about their respective responsibilities in the working relationship and about the validity of the legal framework. Only where a relationship had already been informally established was there a commitment to formalise a joint venture agreement. Future emphasis in policy should therefore be on helping to facilitate and formalise existing partnerships, rather than trying to artificially orchestrate matches where the parties do not know each other.  相似文献   

19.
In the inter-stakeholder relations in environmental and natural resource management disputes, farmers and environmentalists have traditionally fallen along opposing lines arguably due to seemingly incompatible values and fundamental differences between the groups. However, the expansion of the coal seam gas (CSG) industry has resulted in outrage and opposition from farming groups, environmentalists, and communities, leading to an alliance of these “strange bedfellows”. This study explored the opposition movement to CSG in Australia with the use of techniques from social psychology to investigate whether shared values provided the common ground for the alliance. An online survey of values was conducted (N = 197) with members of the CSG opposition alliance. No evidence was found to support the hypothesis that this alliance of stakeholders is comprised of two distinct sub-groups; farmers and environmentalists. The personal values of the respondents were highly inter-compatible, and aligned with social altruism. Sub-clusters were identified which corresponded with the extent to which respondents considered the CSG industry to impact on their lives. This research challenges the appropriateness of predetermined stakeholder classifications being applied to environmental and natural resource management issues, and highlights values as a relevant social factor in the cooperation potential of oft-conflicting stakeholder groups.  相似文献   

20.
Objectives(1) To quantify the contribution of the French forest-wood product chain in terms of carbon sequestration and substitution when accounting for both the physical impacts (shifts in tree growth and mortality rates) and the market impacts (increased demand of harvested wood products (HWP)) of climate change (cc) and the subsequent forest managers adaptations; (2) To assess the uncertainty of the impacts on the above carbon balance and on forest allocation; and (3) To assess the role of managers’ expectations toward these future, uncertain but highly anticipated, impacts.MethodologyWe used a bio-economic model of the French Forest Sector (FFSM++) that is able to consider and integrate: (a) the effects of climate change over forest dynamics; (b) forest investment decisions (among groups of species) according to expected profitability; and (c) market effects in terms of regionalised supply, consumption and trade of HWP, depending on the forest resource stocks and international prices. By including both forest dynamics and forest products, we can evaluate the carbon balance taking the following elements into consideration: (a) carbon sequestered in live and dead biomass in the forest; (b) carbon sequestered in HWP; (c) carbon substituted when wood is used in place of fossil fuels or more energy-intensive materials; and (d) carbon released by forest operations.ResultsWhen the model is run at constant conditions for the next century, the average carbon potential of French forests is 66.2–125.3 Mt CO2 y−1, depending on whether we consider only inventoried wood resources, HWP pools and direct energy substitution, or if we also account for the carbon stored in tree branches and roots and if we consider the more indirect, but also largely more subjective, material substitution. These values correspond to 18.3% and 34.7%, respectively, of the French 2010 emissions (361 Mt CO2). However, when we consider both the probable increment of coniferous mortality and changes in forest growth, plus the rise in HWP demand worldwide, the average sequestration rate of the French forest decreases by 6.6–5.8% to 61.8–118.0 Mt CO2 y−1. Running partial scenarios, we can assess the relative interplay of these two factors, where the price factor increases the HWP stock while decreasing the forest stocks (where the latter effect prevails), while the physical impact of climate change reduces both, but to a lesser extent. Considering short-sighted forest managers, whose behaviour is based uniquely on the observed conditions at the time decisions are made, we obtain a limited effect of the overall carbon balance but a relatively large impact on the area allocation of broadleaved vs. coniferous species.  相似文献   

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