U.S. Agricultural Trade with Mexico

Abstract

This study examined the effects of exchange rates, economic growth, trade liberalization, and export assistance programs on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico. The Commodity Credit Corporation's GSM-102 Export Credit Guarantee Program reduces the risk associated with export financing and payment. The impact of the export credit guarantee program on U.S. agricultural exports to Mexico was estimated in an import demand model using quarterly data from 1980 to 1996. The results indicate that for every $1 of export credit guarantees, Mexican imports of U.S. farm products increased $0.30. Real income growth in Mexico, however, was the most important factor in the expansion of U.S. exports. Trade liberalization under NAFTA also increased U.S. exports to Mexico.     

Macroeconomic Policy Impacts on United States Agriculture: A Simulation Analysis

United States monetary and fiscal policies influence the domestic agricultural economy directly and, through international linkages, indirectly. This study estimates the magnitude and statistical influence of coefficients relating U.S. macroeconomic policy to the U.S. agricultural economy through domestic and foreign markets. Specific objectives are to specify and estimate a general equilibrium quarterly econometric model of the U.S. macroeconomy and simulate the impact of federal deficit spending on real interest rates, real exchange rates, and net exports of agricultural products. Three hypotheses were tested. The first hypothesis that an increase in federal deficit spending increases the real interest rate could not be rejected; a $100 billion reduction in the U.S. deficit was estimated to reduce real interest rates by two percentage points or more. The second hypothesis that an increase in real interest rate increases the real value of the U.S. dollar in foreign exchange markets had strong support and could not be rejected. A third hypothesis that a rise in the real value of the dollar reduces net exports of U.S. farm products also could not be rejected. Results indicate that the U.S. agriculture would benefit from the lower exchange value associated with an ‘optimal’ macroeconomic policy. That policy initially made the overall U.S. economy perform less satisfactorily but that performance improves over time.     

The Labor Market for New Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics Ph.D.s

We describe the characteristics and labor market experiences of new agricultural and natural resource economics Ph.D.s. Women earned roughly 27% of the Ph.D.s earned during 1996–97 and 2001–02; 36% of the Ph.D.s awarded were earned by U.S. citizens. About half of the employed graduates found jobs in academe, with the remainder divided roughly equally among government, international or research organizations, business, industry, and consulting. The median salary of new Ph.D.s holding full-time jobs in the United States was $62,500 in 2002, up from $47,500 five years earlier.     

WOOL POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES: ITS DIRECT IMPACT ON AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

Australian apparel wool exports to the United States are less than they might be because of two protective policies of the U.S. government: a fixed tariff and a system of direct price.support payments to U.S. wool producers. Dismantling these policies, though difficult, could mean $10 million to $21 million worth of additional Australian wool sales to the United States, over 1966 levels. Most of the increase would come from tariff cuts. Such amounts are worth negotiating for but would not solve the industry's problems.     

The National Economic Benefits of Food Imports: The Case of U.S. Imports of Hass Avocados From Mexico

Imports of food products are often seen primarily as a threat to domestic producers while the broader economic impacts are ignored. Research on rapidly growing U.S. avocado imports has focused on the consequences for the U.S. avocado industry. This study conducts an economic impact analysis to measure the level and industry distribution of any benefits of U.S. imports of avocados from Mexico that may accrue to the U.S. national economy. We find that the US$1.5 billion in U.S. imports of Mexican avocados in 2015 had a positive and statistically significant effect on the U.S. economy in that year. Every dollar of avocado imports from Mexico in 2015 generated US$2.31 in U.S. output, US$1.41 in U.S. GDP, and US$0.79 in U.S. labor income. About 12.3 jobs were generated per US$1 million of imports. A separate econometric analysis corroborates the result. We conclude that imports of Mexican avocados are pro-growth for the U.S. economy.     

Adjustment costs and dynamic factor demands for U.S. cigarette manufacturing

Following the approach of Berndt, Fuss, and Waverman, a dynamic model for U.S. cigarette manufacturing is developed and factor demands estimated. Tobacco and capital stocks are treated as quasi-tixed inputs. The results indicate that there are significant adjustment costs associated with adjusting tobacco stocks, but not with adjusting the capital stock. Short-run, intermediate-run, and long-run output constant elasticities are estimated for inputs in cigarette production. Demand for U.S. tobacco by U.S. cigarette manufacturers is found be more inelastic than shown by previous studies using static models. Cigarettes produced for export appear to differ in their marginal cost of production from cigarettes produced for the sale in the U.S. market.     

Linking of U.S. monetary policy and exchange rates to world soybean markets

The linkage between macroeconomic policies and agricultural commodity trade has become an important research issue of agricultural economists. This paper investigates the macroeconomic linkage of soybean trade competition between the exporting countries of the United States, Brazil, and Argentina in the EC-12 and Japan import markets. It is argued that U.S. monetary growth may have important impacts on the competitive position of U.S. soybean exports through exchange rates. Two relationships are investigated: (a) the effects of U.S. monetary growth on the agricultural trade weighted exchange rates, and (b) the responsiveness of agricultural commodity prices and U.S. exports to exchange rate movements. Results indicate that a weak dollar increases imports of soybeans and soymeal significantly which serves to increase the equilibrium world price and increase both U.S. and Brazil/Argentina exports in the long run. However, during periods of more expansionary U.S. monetary policy there is little evidence of significant increases in market share position for U.S. soybeans and soymeal in world markets.     

A Price Analysis of U.S. Agricultural Exports in East Asian Markets

This paper examines the price competition between U.S. agricultural exports and that of its competitors in East Asia. The results show weak price competition in Japan's corn and soybean markets, and no price competition in the wheat market. U.S. cotton exports to Japan face strong price competition. In Hong Kong, U.S. market shares are low, while the demand for its rice, corn, soybeans and cotton is elastic. For South Korea and Taiwan, improved political relationships between China, South Korea, and Taiwan have caused the U.S. to lose market shares to China.     

Development Assistance and Exports: The Case of the United States

The relationship of development assistance and exports has been a controversial subject in recent years. U.S. public organizations feel that development assistance, particularly for research, while intended primarily and immediately to encourage economic development in low-income nations, will also help increase the effective demand for agricultural exports. Some commodity-oriented U.S. farm groups, on the other hand, see assistance primarily in terms of leading to increased competition for exports of their product. They would have the U.S.A. provide less international support for agricultural development and they have had some influence. While there has been considerable debate on the subject, this has not yet resulted in the development of an enlightened national policy. The paper attempts to sort out the facts and perceptions that have led to this situation and to provide some policy suggestions. Two important needs are for: (a) greater public understanding, and (b) strengthened domestic research and improved linkages between domestic and international research activities. Paradoxically, the latter point tends to be overlooked by some of the farm groups but is essential if the U.S. is to remain competitive in what is likely to become a more open international market in the future.     

Impact of the 2014 Suspension Agreement on sugar between the United States and Mexico

In December 2014, the U.S. and Mexico agreed to a suspension agreement that set a $22.25/cwt import price floor on U.S. sugar imports from Mexico. A partial equilibrium trade model was developed to estimate the economic impact the agreement would have had if it had been in effect from 2008 to 2014. In years when the price floor would have been binding, on average, U.S. producers would have gained $138 million and Mexican producers would have lost $218 million. However, total Mexican welfare would have actually increased by $11.5 million. Furthermore, the average price floor that would have maximized total Mexican welfare over that period is $22.76/cwt. Also, under certain supply and demand elasticity conditions, the average price floor that would have maximized joint U.S. and Mexican producer welfare over that period is $21.91/cwt. The latter two estimates are both close to the actual price floor agreed to in the 2014 Suspension Agreement.     

Incidence of the 1996 Canada–U.S. Softwood Lumber Agreement and the Optimal Export Tax

Our partial-equilibrium analysis suggests 63% of the Canada-U.S. Softwood Lumber Agreement's export tax is absorbed by Canadian consumers. Still, sufficient surplus was extracted from U.S. consumers for the agreement to be in Canada's national interest. In fact, the agreement was suboptimal from a Canadian perspective in that a higher tax rate would have raised national welfare, at least in the short run. Although the agreement decreased U.S. welfare, the net loss for the combined U.S. and Canadian economies is modest, about 5% of the bilateral softwood lumber trade value according to our baseline estimates. This suggests the agreement's tariff rate quota scheme is a reasonably efficient mechanism for redistributing economic surplus from U.S. consumers to producers. Still, a better policy may be to enlarge the softwood lumber market via a research and promotion program funded by a modest (say, 5%) tax on Canadian exports.     

Impacts of Policy Reforms on the Supply of Mexican Labor to U.S. Farms: New Evidence from Mexico

The availability of immigrant farm-workers from Mexico is a critical factor affecting the U.S. fresh fruit and vegetable sector. This paper uses retrospective panel data from rural Mexico to examine the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement and the Immigration Reform and Control Act on the supply of migrant labor to the United States. We find that, in contrast to expectations, both policies were associated with an increase in migration to U.S. farm jobs from rural Mexico.     

Effects of media headlines on consumer preferences for food safety,quality and environmental attributes

In recent years, Asia has emerged as an important supplier of food to Western countries. In this study, we focus on shrimp, a major aquaculture commodity, to evaluate consumer willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for enhanced food safety, use of antibiotics and eco‐friendly practices used in producing shrimp in the presence of country‐of‐origin labelling. Specifically, this research assesses the effects of news headlines regarding product safety, as information shocks on U.S. consumer demand. Consumers were found to have a mean willingness‐to‐pay of $7.81 per pound of shrimp with an enhanced safety characteristic from the United States, $0.94 for the same type of shrimp from China and $2.43 for similar shrimp from Thailand. Consumers had a WTP for the absence of antibiotics in the production of U.S. shrimp of $7.31 and were only willing to pay for an eco‐friendly attribute on domestically produced shrimp. Media headlines were found to have a statistically significant effect on consumer preferences and WTP for product characteristics. Food policy and international agribusiness implications of our findings are discussed.     

Agricultural Trade among NAFTA Countries: A Case Study of U.S. Meat Exports

The U.S. NAFTA partners are important markets for U.S. meat exports. A source-differentiated almost ideal demand system is used in this study to estimate meat demand in Canada and Mexico. Empirical results suggest that while a U.S. price increase in the Canadian market is expected to increase U.S. sales revenues; it would decrease sales revenues in the Mexican market. Furthermore, an increase in meat expenditures in Canada and Mexico is expected to increase the demand for U.S. meats, while the bovine spongiform encephalopathy outbreaks have had a negative effect on U.S. and Canadian beef market shares. Finally, a decomposition of the causes of changes in demand for U.S. meats over time is performed.     

How sensitive is U.S. agricultural trade to the bilateral exchange rate? Evidence from bulk,intermediate, and consumer‐oriented products

This article examines the dynamic effects of changes in bilateral exchange rates on changes in bilateral trade of bulk, intermediate, and consumer‐oriented agricultural products between the United States and its 10 major trading partners. We find that, for consumer‐oriented products, U.S. exports are highly sensitive to bilateral exchange rates in both the short and long run, while U.S. imports are mostly responsive only in the short run. For bulk products, on the other hand, U.S. exports and imports are relatively insensitive to exchange rate changes in both the short and long run. For intermediate products, exports and imports are responsive to exchange rate changes in the short run, but not in the long run. It is also found that income of the United States and its trading partners has a significant effect on U.S. exports and imports of the three types of agricultural products in both the short and long run.     

Effect of Sugar Price Policy on U.S. Imports of Processed Sugar-containing Foods

The relationship between U.S. and world sugar prices, and U.S. import demand for four categories of sugar-containing products is examined. Results from econometric estimation indicate that U.S. intervention in the sugar market has helped to increase U.S. imports of some sugar-containing products, but that increased disposable income has played a more important role. Although some developing countries have benefitted from U.S. sugar policy by increasing their exports of sugar-containing products to the United States, U.S. sugar policy has helped imports from developed countries proportionately more than those from developing countries as a whole.     

Patent Rights and Trade: Analysis of Biological Products, Medicinals and Botanicals, and Pharmaceuticals

This article analyzes the effects of foreign patent rights on U.S. bilateral exports. The empirical analysis covers three highly disaggregated drug industries over three decades. We estimate bilateral trade equations for each industry using cross-country data on the strength of national patent rights. The findings show that strong foreign patent rights enhance the market power of U.S. drug exporters across countries with weak imitative abilities. Alternatively, strong foreign patent rights stimulate the market expansion of U.S. drug exports across countries with strong imitative abilities. These effects are larger in magnitude during the 1980–90s relative to the 1970s.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTIVENESS OF BRAND ADVERTISING PROGRAMMES FOR U.S. ORANGE JUICE IN THE EUROPEAN MARKET: AN ERROR COMPONENT ANALYSIS

An econometric model is used to measure the impact of the Three-Party Programme on European demand for U.S. orange juice. The results show that the programme has helped expand the demand for orange juice in European countries and, from the viewpoint of the U.S. citrus industry, is an economically preferred way of generating additional exports compared with using price reductions to achieve additional sales.     

Potential Impacts of Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) on the Fresh Vegetable and Beef Trade

ABSTRACT

The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (T-TIP) negotiations influence the global economic position of both the European Union (EU) and the United States (U.S.). Agricultural issues are an important part of the negotiation. There have been several analyses of the aggregate impacts of a T-TIP agreement. This report analyzes the commodity impacts on trade for fresh vegetables and beef. Vegetables represent the situation where the U.S. is a growing net importer and the EU has substantial potential for expanding exports to the U.S. in this highly competitive marketplace. Beef represents the situation where sanitary and phytosanitary restrictions on hormone use in production have prohibited consumer choices from being revealed in the marketplace for both the EU and the U.S. The authors provide insight into where the comparative advantages lie in freer trade situations.     

The Effects of NAFTA on Trade and Welfare in the U.S. Fresh Tomato Industry

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to measure NAFTA's impact to date and quantify how the producers and consumers of fresh tomatoes in the United States, Canada and Mexico have benefited or lost. Changes in consumer and producer surpluses were calculated in 2001 US dollars based on simulations of two scenarios. The analysis found that U.S. consumers captured $12.1 billion more surplus than they would have captured had NAFTA not been enacted. Mexican fresh tomato producers gained an additional $2.08 billion in surplus due to NAFTA. In contrast to Mexican growers, U.S. and Canadian producers appear not to have benefited economically from NAFTA. Findings suggest that U.S. producers would have earned $3.29 billion more if NAFTA had not gone into effect. Canadian producer surplus with NAFTA was estimated to be approximately $20 million less with NAFTA, and the total net benefit from NAFTA was found to be a positive $10.87 billion.