Dynamics and Heterogeneity of Inter‐ and Intranational Risk Sharing

This study extends the empirical model of incomplete risk sharing developed by Crucini ( 1999 ) by allowing unequal income pooling and explores the implications of using an alternative measure for aggregate risk. Based on samples from Canadian provinces, G‐7, and OECD countries spanning the years 1961–2008, we show that the empirical procedure used by Crucini tends to overstate the average degree of risk sharing and understate the dispersion of risk sharing, when compared to our unequal income pooling model. The empirical results from our unequal pooling model show that (i) the degree and dispersion of risk sharing across Canadian provinces, G‐7 countries, and OECD countries remain stable over time; (ii) the degree of risk sharing across Canadian provinces is higher than that across the G‐7 and OECD countries; and (iii) the degree of risk sharing seems positively related to equity and trade diversification.     

我国城镇居民消费的风险分担与跨期平滑——基于1985~2011年的实证研究

应用我国1985~2011年的省级数据,构建面板数据模型实证分析了城镇家庭消费的风险分担和跨期平滑情况。研究结果显示：我国城镇家庭消费的跨期平滑是不完全的。无论是从我国整体情况来看,还是从不同地区或者不同收入组家庭来考察,城镇家庭消费的跨期平滑系数γ均介于0~1之间。此外,城镇家庭消费的风险分担程度很低,消费风险分担机制很不完善。进一步的分析显示：各个地区内部和不同收入组内部的风险分担系数要高于全国总体的风险分担系数,这说明我国城镇家庭在进行消费风险分担时具有显著的“本地偏好”和“阶层效应”。     

On International Consumption Risk Sharing,Financial Integration and Financial Development

This article investigates the empirical link between international consumption risk sharing, financial integration, and financial development for a group of twenty-nine developed and developing countries in the G7, the Euro area, and the OECD. Estimation results indicate that (1) risk sharing in the Euro area is higher than those in the G-7 and the OECD, and (2) a higher degree of risk sharing is associated with a greater degree of financial integration and a lower level of financial development. These results suggest that more financially integrated countries might be better able to insure themselves against idiosyncratic income shocks and countries with more developed financial markets might tend to engage in less consumption risk sharing with other countries thanks to their own sophisticated financial markets. Holding financial integration and financial development equal, countries in the Euro area engage in significantly more risk sharing than the ones in the G7 and the OECD.     

Understanding the Backus–Smith puzzle: It's the (nominal) exchange rate,stupid

Backus, Kehoe and Kydland (BKK 1992) demonstrated that if international capital markets are complete, consumption growth correlations across countries should be higher than their corresponding output growth correlations. In stark contrast to the theory, however, in actual data the consumption growth correlation is lower than the output growth correlation. By assuming trade imperfections due to non-traded goods, Backus, D.K., Smith, G.W. [1993 Consumption and real exchange rates in dynamic economies with non-traded goods. Journal of International Economics 35(3–4), 297–316] showed that there is an additional impediment at work that can lower the consumption growth correlation. While their argument was successful in partially explaining the puzzlingly low cross country correlation of consumption growth rates, it contributed to generating another puzzle because the data forcefully show that consumption growth is negatively correlated with the real exchange rate, which is also a violation of the theory. Using data for OECD countries, we decompose real exchange rate growth into its nominal exchange rate growth and inflation differential components, and find that nominal exchange rate movements are the main source for the Backus-Smith puzzle. We demonstrate the robustness of this finding by examining sub-samples of the data, by allowing for imperfect risk sharing due to ‘rule of thumb’ consumers, and by examining intranational data across the U.S. states where the nominal exchange rate is fixed.     

Evaluating international consumption risk sharing gains: An asset return view

International consumption risk sharing studies often generate counterfactual implications for asset return behavior with potentially misleading results. We address this contradiction using data moments of consumption and asset returns to fit a canonical international consumption risk sharing framework. Introducing persistent consumption risk, we find that its correlation across countries is more important for risk sharing than that of transitory risk. To identify these risk components, we jointly exploit the comovement of equity returns and consumption. This identification implies high correlations in persistent consumption risk, suggesting a strong degree of existing risk sharing despite low consumption correlations in the data.     

Incentive problems and the pattern of international risk sharing

This paper analyzes the implications of moral hazard and a lack of contract enforcement for risk sharing across countries and regions. We demonstrate that both incentive problems can considerably restrict efficient risk sharing. However, we show that the cross-sectional risk sharing component is much more affected than the intertemporal component. We argue that this may help to explain several stylized facts of international risk sharing, such as the low degree of insurance against permanent shocks.     

The impact of international portfolio composition on consumption risk sharing

Recent empirical work has shown that ongoing international financial integration facilitates cross-country consumption risk sharing. These studies typically find that countries with high equity home bias exhibit relatively low international consumption risk sharing. We extend this line of research and demonstrate that it is not only a country's equity home bias that prevents consumption risk sharing. In addition, the composition of a country's foreign asset portfolio plays an important role. Using panel-data regression for a group of OECD countries over the period 1980–2007, we show that foreign investment bias has additional explanatory power for consumption risk sharing.     

External balance adjustment: An intra-national and international comparison

Large external imbalances have become a policy concern. This study investigates the determinants of external balances for regions within a single country—Canadian provinces—as well as for a sample of 18 OECD countries. External balance adjustment may differ for provinces since there are few intra-national barriers to the mobility of capital, goods and labour within Canada. Also, because Canada is a monetary union, there is no currency risk associated with lending and borrowing across provinces, and this may promote inter-provincial financial flows. The estimates show that the short run response of the external balance to disturbances, such as a deterioration in the terms of trade, is typically larger for Canadian provinces than for OECD countries. There is also a much greater speed of adjustment of the external balance in the Canadian provinces. This faster adjustment speed, combined with the larger response of the external balance, means that provinces may see a quicker resolution of external imbalances, but larger deficits or surpluses may emerge before adjustment occurs.     

Quantifying the risk-sharing welfare gains of social security

The welfare effects of intergenerational risk sharing through a pay-as-you-go social security system that is efficiently indexed to wages or interest rates are quantified. Comparing steady states, there are large welfare gains of being born into an economy with efficient risk sharing as compared to the current U.S. system. Efficient policy involves an increasingly risky net of tax income over the life cycle. When adjustment to steady state is taken into account, the welfare gains largely turn negative. The results are also compared and contrasted to the first best allocation.     

Labour market rigidities and international risk sharing across OECD countries

In this paper we examine the role of labour market rigidities in the context of international consumption risk sharing. Stronger labour market regulation may make it easier to borrow against future income, thus allowing shocks to be smoothed to a greater extent. In addition, rigid labour markets may help to enforce implicit contracts that shift risk from employees to owners of firms, who, in turn, may diversify risk internationally. Using data for 19 OECD countries we show that labour market rigidities significantly increase consumption correlations and reduce the exposure to country-specific shocks. These results suggest that labour market rigidities improve the international sharing of consumption risks by fostering a more efficient intra-national allocation of risk.