我国商业银行中小企业信贷风险评估体系的构建

开展中小企业贷款业务是商业银行优化信贷资产结构的重要措施，快速、准确评估其信贷风险是商业银行亟须解决的技术问题。经过长期实地调研，本文建立了适用于我国的中小企业信贷风险评估体系，其中，所建非财务指标体系，从行业环境、企业经营管理水平、经营者经验与素质、信用品质四方面进行评估；财务指标体系包括现金流流动负债比、净资产总资产比、息税前利润流动负债比、总资产周转速度、流动比率、现金流贷款比六个指标。以Logit统计回归模型为基础建立的评估模型，在分别评估非财务指标信息和财务指标信息后，加权相加两方面结果得到综合评估结果。实证检验证明，该评估体系的评估正确率达到95％以上。     

农村小额信贷财务可持续发展研究——基于渝农商行与青农商行财务分析

以重庆农村商业银行和青岛农村商业银行为样本,通过建立一套包括存款能力、贷款能力、运营能力、盈利能力和支农能力的财务指标体系,对比评价两家银行小额信贷业务的财务可持续发展能力.结果表明:在2014-2018年间,两行的财务可持续能力整体不断加强,但青农商行的贷款能力比渝农商行稍强,说明良好的地区经济环境会对信贷业务的持续发展产生一定的促进作用.基于此,提出加强信贷经验积累等促进农村小额信贷财务可持续发展的建议.     

突破信用瓶颈--关于解决信贷『两难』的思考

当前,我国信贷总量和结构的矛盾颇为突出.尤其是商业银行难贷款和中小企业贷款难(下称信贷"两难")深深困扰着经济金融的改革发展,引起了社会各界的强烈关注.对于信贷"两难"的矛盾,商业银行与中小企业站在自身的立场各有说法.我们认为,信贷"两难"的根本原因主要不在商业银行和中小企业,而在于社会信用体系不健全所导致的巨大信用缺口.因此,加快社会信用体系建设才是解决的根本之策.     

利率市场化、银行竞争与中小企业信贷可获性

金融机构贷款利率全面放开后,大型企业与银行的议价能力提高,而中小企业信贷可获性问题则需要多角度分析。利率市场化从两方面影响中小企业融资问题,一是利率浮动带来的直接影响;二是通过加剧商业银行竞争程度带来的间接影响。文章构建了银企博弈和商业银行竞争两个模型对中小企业信贷可获性进行理论分析,结果表明,无论放开贷款利率上限管制还是下限管制,随着商业银行竞争的加剧,长期来看中小企业信贷可获性都得到了提高。     

中小企业知识产权质押贷款的制约因素与解决对策

随着近年来中小企业的迅速发展,传统的担保方式已不能满足中小企业特别是科技型中小企业的融资需求,部分商业银行尝试性地开展了中小企业知识产权质押贷款业务。但从我国的实践来看,知识产权质押贷款存在着法律制度不完善、价值评估困难、质押物处置不便和金融经验不足等因素的制约没有得到广泛应用。推进中小企业知识产权质押贷款,应建立健全知识产权担保的法律体系和操作规程,完善知识产权价值评估制度,加快建立知识产权交易平台,创新知识产权质押的信贷机制,建立知识产权质押贷款的政府补偿机制,同时加强中小企业自身的建设。     

关系型借贷与中小企业融资的实证分析

本文通过一个计量经济学模型来检验企业贷款是否存在关系型借贷,结果发现:大型企业的确存在关系型借贷行为,且对企业的贷款量有显著性影响;中小企业关系型借贷对于贷款量的影响较小,且并不明显。原因可能是商业银行在审批中小企业贷款时,注重对“硬”信息的考察,同时中小企业并没有同某一家或几家商业银行保持长期关系。为改善中小企业融资状况,商业银行应建立起一套完整的信用记录体系,并实现信息共享,在贷款过程中增强对“软”信息的考察,积极培育一批资质较好的中小企业客户并建立密切的联系;中小企业则应该规范财务制度并增强财务信息的透明度,同银行建立长期关系。     

关系型借贷与中小企业融资的实证分析

本文通过一个计量经济学模型来检验企业贷款是否存在关系型借贷，结果发现：大型企业的确存在关系型借贷行为，且对企业的贷款量有显著性影响；中小企业关系型借贷对于贷款量的影响较小，且并不明显。原因可能是商业银行在审批中小企业贷款时，注重对“硬”信息的考察，同时中小企业并没有同某一家或几家商业银行保持长期关系。为改善中小企业融资状况，商业银行应建立起一套完整的信用记录体系，并实现信息共享，在贷款过程中增强对“软”信息的考察，积极培育一批资质较好的中小企业客户并建立密切的联系；中小企业则应该规范财务制度并增强财务信息的透明度，同银行建立长期关系。     

我国中小企业融资问题探讨

中小企业的发展需要强有力的支特,"融资难"日益成为其进一步发展的巨大障碍.中小企业融资的最大特点是"信息不对称",由此带来信贷市场的"逆向选择"和"道德风险"等问题,商业银行的审查监督成本和潜在收益不对称,降低了它们在中小企业贷款方面的积极性.我国中小企业普遍存在信用观念薄弱,偿债和抵押担保能力差的问题.因此,本文从我国金融环境,商业银行信贷机制以及担保体系的构建等三方面着眼并进行讨论,力图打破中小企业的融资瓶颈,解决其贷款难的问题.     

基于博弈视角的中小企业贷款难求解之道

中小企业贷款难是一个世界级的金融难题,在中国显得尤为突出。本文运用博弈理论从商业银行的角度分析得出,信贷市场的信息不对称使得缺乏抵押或者担保的优质中小企业很难从银行体系获得资金支持。解决中小企业贷款难问题绝不是商业银行单方面的事情,首先需要中小企业稳健经营、诚信经营,培育良好的企业文化,累计良好的信誉;其次,需要政府出台政策加大对中小企业的扶持力度;金融监管部门要进一步优化金融环境,推进信用体系建设,增进优质中小企业的信用级别;商业银行应该积极转变经营方式,实施差别化的经营模式,加大对优质中小企业的信贷支持。     

非财务指标在商业银行业绩评价中的应用——我国商业银行平衡计分卡应用研究

我国商业银行的业绩评价侧重于财务指标,对非财务指标没有给予应有的重视.在金融业竞争日益激烈的今天,忽视非财务指标是商业银行业绩评价体系的重要缺陷,不利于银行业绩的提升.本文以平衡计分卡为基础,阐述建立商业银行业绩评价的非财务指标体系的可行性及其应用.     

Real asset liquidity,cash holdings,and the cost of corporate debt

We study the impact of the interplay between cash holdings and asset sales on the corporate debt spread. We allow cash holdings and asset sales to assist with both debt repayment and sequential investments. The interplay between cash holdings and asset sales leads to a convex relationship between credit spreads and the liquidity of the market for real assets. We use the 2008 financial crisis as a natural experiment and find that post-2008, the nonlinearity of the link between credit spreads and asset liquidity is pronounced, closely matching analytical predictions. This is especially acute for highly leveraged and low profitability firms.     

企业金融资产配置与融资约束的缓解机制:基于流动性管理的分析

企业进行金融资产配置,一方面能够为企业提供流动性,缓解融资约束;另一方面也因投机动机而占用企业流动性资源,加剧融资约束,对实体投资造成挤压。这是形成企业金融化的"投资挤出效应"和"蓄水池效应"两种现象并存的内在机制。为衡量这种内在机制,本文使用2007—2018年我国上市公司样本,对金融资产配置的流动性管理效应展开分析。结果显示:非金融企业的金融收益会推动超额现金的持有,通过超额现金的中介效应引致了融资约束程度的缓解;而企业持有金融资产行为则产生相反的效应。进一步研究发现,在典型的公司治理机制中,无论是外部股东的投票机制,还是来自内部的代理成本与高管持股机制,都在一定程度上推动了金融资产配置产生的流动性效应。     

Leverage Choice and Credit Spreads when Managers Risk Shift

We model the debt and asset risk choice of a manager with performance‐insensitive pay (cash) and performance‐sensitive pay (stock) to theoretically link compensation structure, leverage, and credit spreads. The model predicts that optimal leverage trades off the tax benefit of debt against the utility cost of ex‐post asset substitution and that credit spreads are increasing in the ratio of cash‐to‐stock. Using a large cross‐section of U.S.‐based corporate credit default swaps (CDS) covering 2001 to 2006, we find a positive association between cash‐to‐stock and CDS rates, and between cash‐to‐stock and leverage ratios.     

自由现金流量创造力与违约风险——来自A股公司的经验证据

本文基于我国A股上市公司数据,研究了企业自由现金流量创造力与违约风险之间的关系。研究发现:(1)企业自由现金流量创造力越强,其违约风险越低。经过一系列稳健性检验后,该结论依旧成立。(2)自由现金流量创造力越强的企业往往有更低的债务规模、更高的资产收益率和更低的股票波动,因而其违约风险更低。(3)自由现金流量创造力与违约风险的负相关关系,主要存在于货币政策紧缩时期以及外部信息环境较差的企业。本文发现意味着,监管部门和投资者应重视上市公司自由现金流量创造力不足所带来的潜在债务违约风险,通过不断提高公司自由现金流量创造力,助力我国宏观经济与微观企业高质量发展。     

Financial constraints on credit ratings and cash-flow sensitivity

This study investigates whether financial constraints, as measured by the level of credit ratings and their migrations would affect the firm's cash flow allocation policies and reflect the main financial constraints on a firm's cash flow sensitivity of cash. For a given credit quality shock, control for firm-level characteristics and endogeneity of cash flow allocation, our results suggest that firms with higher credit financial constraints have significantly higher cash flow sensitivities on cash holding, investment, and debt financing activities. Our results provide evidence that credit rating risk has a larger impact on cash flow allocation and drives the financial constraints on cash flow sensitivity for various reasons, including precautionary motivation and restricted access to external financing.     

非金融企业杠杆率与银行信用风险关系研究

本文立足于重庆市非金融企业杠杆率的测算,采用描述性统计分析、变异系数法、向量自回归模型分析等分析方法,重点分析了重庆市非金融企业杠杆率的发展情况及非金融企业杠杆率与商业银行信用风险之间的关系。研究结果表明：重庆市非金融企业杠杆率总体稳定可控,但部分行业风险不容忽视;去杠杆短期内会增加商业银行信用风险,长期有助于化解金融风险;去杠杆对商业银行不良率攀升的影响较为显著。据此,根据研究结论提出了相应的对策建议。     

Classification of commercial bank loans through policy capturing

The judgmental policy of a group of national bank examiners in classifying commercial bank loans was identified using stepwise multiple discriminant analyses and was expressed in the form of a linear model. Credit scenarios (which were composed of both financial and non-financial cues) were presented to 24 national bank examiners at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) in Washington D.C. Each examiner received 20 scenarios and was asked to classify the scenarios in one of the five classifications used by the OCC. Based upon 75% of these observations, a linear discriminant model was developed using stepwise MDA analyses. The remaining observations were used to validate the model developed. Non-financial variables appeared to be important discriminators; the financial variable of industry comparison of the interest coverage ratio using cash flow was an excellent discriminatory variable; and industry comparisons and trends of financial variables appeared to be more important than the variables themselves. The model developed contained two of these variables: (a) an industry comparison of the interest coverage ratio using cash flow and (b) the trend of the debt/equity ratio.     

Predicting banking distress in the EMEAP economies

This study develops a panel probit model to identify the leading indicators of banking distress and to estimate the banking distress probability for EMEAP economies. Macroeconomic fundamentals, currency crisis vulnerability, credit risks of banks and non-financial companies, asset price gaps, credit growth, and the occurrence of distress in other economies are found to be important leading indicators. The model is applied to stress test the Hong Kong banking sector. Simulation results suggest that compared with the period before the Asian financial crisis, the banking sector is currently more capable of withstanding shocks similar to those that occurred during the crisis.     

宏微观分析相结合的信贷风险预测模型研究

我国现有的信贷风险评估方法存在宏微观分析结合不紧密以及风险评估不全面的问题.本文在基于财务分析的企业风险评估模型基础上,构建了宏微观分析相结合的信贷风险预测模型.建模的主要工作包括:选择反映行业信贷风险的指标与反映宏观经济变化的指标;确定反映宏观经济变化的指标与反映行业信贷风险指标之间的函数关系;依据以上的关联函数和宏观经济指标预测值,计算行业信贷风险调整系数;据此对属于该行业的企业即期信贷风险指标进行调整,对企业的信贷风险进行前瞻性预测.作者还利用证券市场数据检验了上述模型的准确性,结果表明模型可以有效预测企业未来的信贷风险.     

Determinants of financial covenants and pricing of debt in private debt contracts: the UK evidence

This paper presents details of financial covenants given by a sample drawn from the largest 200 non-financial quoted firms in the UK in private debt contracts and analyses these data to see whether there are relationships between the nature of the covenants given and firm characteristics. Data were obtained from 72 firms, of which 17 gave no financial covenants. Firm size was found to be the only significant factor influencing whether firms did or did not give covenants as well as the only factor which influenced the margin given on debt. Some types of covenants given were found to be different from those found in previous research. In particular, there is greater use of EBITDA as a base for both interest cover and gearing covenants. This shows the importance of cash flow based lending as opposed to asset based lending for general financing for large firms.