商业银行资产质量演变趋势特征分析及发展对策

银行是经营风险的企业,资产质量是经营成效的重要体现。文章总结了我国商业银行资产质量变化趋势,分析了近年来我国商业银行资产质量的变化特征是资产质量变化周期与经济周期高度相关、不同类型机构资产质量变化兼具一致性和差异性、近年来对公和零售资产质量出现不同走势、高不良率行业数量增多等,提出增强对经济周期的预见性、把控对公贷款量的增长、关注对公行业风险特征、灵活调整资源投放、从严落实资产质量分类标准等相关对策建议。     

商业银行信贷资产质量发展趋势——以工商银行与建设银行为例

中国银行业信贷资产质量状况一直为金融业界与学术界所关注,各方对其未来发展趋势看法不一。考虑到信贷资产质量的变化是内外部因素共同作用的结果,本文依次选取了经济周期、影子银行、地方政府偿债能力等外部宏观因素指标,以及关注贷款、银行内部风险管理水平、信贷资产状况等内部因素指标,分别就指标自身状况、对信贷资产质量的作用机制与影响效果进行了分析。基于本文的分析,在短期内,商业银行信贷资产指标受惯性影响,仍将呈现双降态势,预计中期将出现一定反弹,若要实现信贷资产质量持续稳定的目标,监管部门与商业银行应着手采取相应措施。     

我国商业银行信贷资产安全现状分析

在间接融资模式下，我国经济增长对商业银行信贷资金的高度依赖加剧了我国商业银行信贷资产的不安全性。本文从银行盈利能力、不良贷款、贷款结构、资本充足率等方面对商业银行信贷资产安全现状进行了深入分析。     

经济周期与银行业资产质量

国际经验显示,商业银行资产质量呈现周期性波动,并且与宏观经济周期有较强反向相关性。信贷规模顺周期扩张行为,后景气时期企业偿债能力与负债成本错位,也对银行资产质量造成压力。资产价格自高位快速回落往往成为资产质量恶化的导火索,房地产市场泡沫破裂是其中典型情形,波及面最为广泛,影响最为深远。影响银行业资产质量的宏观要素经济增长与资产不良率逆相关。经济周期与银行业资产质量的相关度较高,经济环境变化是决定客户违约率的最重要变量。理论研究与实践均证明:在经济高涨期,企业经营良好,利润水平较高,同时贷款抵押品价值也较高,银行贷款的资产质量     

信贷资产质量前瞻性预测与压力测试——基于ARMA模型和VAR模型的研究

本文利用ARMA模型和VAR模型,对重要宏观经济指标、商业银行信贷资产的规模与质量进行预测分析,对商业银行房地产开发贷款增速和质量进行压力测试,并对指标间的波动特性及变化规律进行量化.研究结果表明,宏观经济波动对商业银行信贷资产的增长和质量稳定均有显著影响.商业银行应加强基础数据的整理、储备,将土地、物业作为抵质押物的...     

宏观经济的不确定性与商业银行信贷行为研究

在我国的投资资金主要来源当中的一项就是银行信贷,而因为投资与宏观经济的增长是具有正面相关的增长关系的。是以银行信贷与宏观经济的增长之间也存在着同样的关系。宏观经济的不确定性对于商业银行信贷行为的影响是无疑的,而它们之间的这种关系也有传导机制辅助产生,甚至宏观经济不确定性和商业银行信贷资产配置之间也存在着一定关系。     

《新资本协议》对商业银行信贷运行的影响——兼论其宏观经济效应

《新资本协议》的出台和实施是银行监管历史上一个具有里程碑意义的事件。本文认为,《新资本协议》特别是内部评级法极大地提高了资本监管的风险敏感度,将对商业银行的信贷增长方式、信贷结构调整和贷款损失准备计提、以及宏观经济运行产生一定的影响。按照目前我国商业银行资本充足水平和资产质量,无论是实施标准法还是内部评级法都将强化信贷扩张的资本约束效应。我国应慎重选择《新资本协议》的实施时机,避免由此对信贷供给和宏观经济运行造成的负面冲击。     

宽松货币政策形势下银行信贷风险的识别与防范

在今年贯彻国家"保增长、扩内需、调结构"的决策部署,实施宽松的货币政策形势下,商业银行信贷高速增长,在防止经济过快下滑、支持经济回暖的同时,也面临着许多特殊的风险.本文分析了在当前信贷高增长背景下需要重点关注的七大信贷风险,以及可能影响信贷资产质量变化的因素,提出从加强宏观经济分析、实现信贷结构优化、加强信贷精细化管理、控制集团客户中的关联贷款、防止银行资金对投机性活动的支持等方面采取必要的风险防范措施,保持商业银行的可持续发展.     

发展消费信贷业务潜力多多

坚持扩大内需,保持消费需求对经济增长的拉动作用是我国的宏观经济政策.这为我国消费市场持续增长和金融机构大力发展消费信贷业务提供了难得的历史机遇.商业银行应抓住这一机遇,扩大消费信贷业务,调整信贷结构,提高信贷资产质量.     

货币政策回“稳”后的商业银行信贷风险控制策略

金融危机以来国内外经济形势日趋复杂,国家加强了宏观调控,实施了"稳健"的货币政策,这一政策的转向对商业银行信贷规模天量增长后的信贷风险管控提出了新的要求和挑战,必须引起高度重视。一、信贷高速增长下的银行业风险以及经济周期与不良贷款的关系银行作为典型受宏观经济影响的高风险行业,其经营的不仅     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

我国助学贷款改革刍议--"双担保"机制设计

国家新出台的助学贷款政策,还不过是既有的框架下的局部调整,存在诸多不完善的地方。为此,对国家助学贷款应构建高校与就业单位的“双担保”机制。从长期来看,要构建一个系统有效的“政府部门管理和商业银行运作相结合”、“多层次、多渠道、多方式”、“担保和非担保、贴息和非贴息、市场和非市场运作互相补充”的中国教育金融框架。     

人行县支行备份路由的解决方案

目前江苏省内人民银行各县(市)支行与其市中心支行的网络互联是通过专线经中国电信的x.25分组交换网实现的,没有其它备份线路,一旦线路或路由器出现故障,电子联行、银行信贷登记咨询、货币发行管理等业务系统就不能与中心支行的业务系统实现正常通信,这不仅会影响本行业务工作的正常进行,甚至可能会影响上级行业务系统的正常运行.针对这一问题我们首先想到的解决方法是,购买一个路由器作为备份路由器,再租用一条其它方式的远程连接线路作为备份线路,这样的备份设备费用至少15万～2万元.如果采用Windows 2000 Server(或者Windows NT Server 4.0),使用其免费提供的请求拨号路由服务,就能实现临时应急备份路由.下面对Windows2000的请求拨号路由及其安装配置做一详细说明.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.