Factors Associated with the Presence of Domestic Energy Efficiency Measures in England

We use cross‐sectional household survey data in England between 2002–03 and 2010–11 to explore potential barriers to ownership of three common energy efficiency measures (loft insulation, cavity wall insulation and full double glazing) in residential properties. There is little compelling evidence that credit constraints, as proxied by income, education or means‐tested benefit receipt, inhibit ownership. Failures in landlord–tenant relationships, though, are a key issue: private renters are significantly less likely to have the measures in their homes than other tenure groups. More broadly, it is the characteristics of the dwelling rather than of the occupants which are most strongly related to the presence of the measures. However, relatively few factors are consistently associated with lower ownership rates over time and efficiency measures, suggesting that policies to encourage increased take‐up may need to be tailored to the specific measure.     

Prospect theory,mitigation and adaptation to climate change

Prospect theory (PT) is a widely accepted theory for decisions under uncertainty. However, so far a systematic application to climate policy (CP) does not exist. One important postulation of PT is that outcomes are perceived as gains or losses, relative to the reference point. When it comes to CP, different decision-makers may have different reference points. For example, one decision-maker perceives the current climate as the reference point whereas another decision-maker may have another one, say climate in 100 years. For the former, climate damages are losses and the benefits of CP are reductions of losses. For the latter, benefits of CP are gains. PT suggests that the former places a higher value in CP than the latter. After a critical review whether and how PT may be applied to CP, the paper systematically presents this and other cases where PT offers new insights into climate-related analyses, notwithstanding the importance of well-known aspects such as discounting, altruism, political and economic costs. It is shown that accounting for PT may contribute to a better understanding of some well-known puzzles in the climate debate, including different preferences for CP amongst individuals and nations, the role of technical vs. financial adaptation, and the apparent preference for hard protection measures in coastal adaptation. Finally, concrete possibilities for empirical research on these effects are proposed.     

Preserving Value through Adaptation to Climate Change

Corporate “mitigation” efforts to limit greenhouse gases alone will not be sufficient to protect companies against future environmental impacts. For most companies intent on preserving their operating efficiency and value, “adaptation”—the process of changing behavior in response to actual or expected climate change impacts—is emerging as a critical partner to mitigation efforts aimed at reducing the accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. The recent growth in the expected costs associated with the risk of climate change emphasizes the importance of developing new technology and redesigning infrastructure and other assets that will enable companies to respond to such change without excessive reductions in profitability. The nature and extent of adaptation in each situation will depend on the costs involved relative to the benefits of adopting different adaptation strategies to achieve a target level of resilience. Companies that choose to adapt and do so effectively are expected to benefit from an improvement in their net risk‐return profile. Consistent with this expectation, the authors found that a sample of companies from the European energy sector that adapted to the 2005 EU climate change mandate by diversifying their fuel sources (mainly away from coal) experienced reductions in both risk and return while non‐adapting firms experienced roughly the same returns, but at the cost of higher risk. The benefit of adapting is thus seen as showing up not in higher returns per se, but in higher risk‐adjusted returns.     

Postnormal network futures: A rejoinder to Ziauddin Sardar

Sardar's “Welcome to Postnormal Times” describes the chaotic, contradictory and uncertain climate today, and analyses the failure of progress, modernisation or efficiency to provide ethical, political or even trustworthy economic solutions to the instability of the present. Missing in his analysis is the role of knowledge, especially as it is migrating from individuals to technical networks. This paper argues that recent developments in the networking of knowledge point towards a new constellation in which networks are emerging as major powers alongside the nation and the market, the two pillars of global political economy in the 20th and early 21st century. It responds to Sardar's challenge to imagine the future by imagining the political consequences of recognising non-human agencies as political actors.     

NHS purchasing and the supply council

The Defence budget is over‐stretched. The scope for greater efficiency is large, but only radical and unpalatable action ‐ possibly at the expense of the UK defence‐industry ‐ can produce enough savings in existing programmes.     

Private retirement savings and mandatory annuitization

The present paper studies the growth, welfare, and efficiency consequences of tax-favored retirement accounts in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic lifespan and labor income uncertainty. We focus on the implicit differential taxation of savings motives and the mandatory annuitization of withdrawals after retirement. The simulations performed for the German economy indicate that the differential taxation of savings motives has only modest efficiency effects but especially low-income households benefit. On the other hand, mandatory annuitization improves overall economic efficiency significantly by about 0.4% of aggregate resources, but future generations are hurt due to intergenerational income effects from reduced accidental bequest.     

储蓄率与杠杆率:一个U型关系

近年来,中国呈现典型的“高储蓄—高杠杆”特征,高储蓄率也被认为是中国杠杆率偏高的主要原因之一。能否通过降低储蓄率的方式来去杠杆成为了广泛讨论的问题。为此,本文构建了一个含有融资约束的动态宏观模型,研究了储蓄率对杠杆率的影响机理。并且,基于41个代表性经济体1966-2017年的面板数据,对储蓄率与杠杆率之间的关系进行了实证分析,主要有两点研究发现:(1)虽然高储蓄率会导致高杠杆率,但是储蓄率与杠杆率不是简单的正相关关系,而是呈现显著的U型关系。结合测算的U型曲线拐点值与中国实际情况,预计储蓄率下降在降低杠杆率方面的作用效果有限。(2)高杠杆下,较高的储蓄率可以有效降低发生金融危机的概率,而储蓄率下降则会加大发生金融危机的概率。基于此,本文认为中国不能通过降低储蓄率的方式来降低杠杆率,反而需要对近年来储蓄率下滑的现象予以高度重视,从而更好地守住不发生系统性金融风险的底线。     

Carrot or stick: Impacts of alternative climate and energy policy scenarios on agriculture

The climate and energy strategy of the European Union presents the aims for all economic sectors to cut carbon dioxide emissions. In this paper, we studied what kind of conflicts, synergies, opportunities and control measures the climate and energy policy brings to farms in Finland. We used the Delphi method to assess possible outcomes of three scenarios based on the strength of mitigation policy. The scenarios scrutinised were (1) Baseline, (2) Tight Control and (3) Energy Plus Food. These scenarios create different adaptive needs and measures on farms. Baseline scenario follows the present and forthcoming development in agriculture and Tight Control scenario, in turn, constitutes all possible mitigation measures recently introduced in the scientific discussion. In Energy Plus Food scenario, farms increasingly produce renewable energy in addition to food and, therefore, have new opportunities to develop their businesses. The Delphi panel estimated how the farms would cope with different future developments represented by the scenarios. Based on our results, it is evident that interdisciplinary analysis in research and inter-sectoral cooperation between agricultural and energy policies are required.     

The Impact of Oportunidades on Consumption,Savings and Transfers*

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the Mexican conditional cash transfer programme, Oportunidades, on transfers, savings and consumption for treated households. We find positive effects on consumption of non‐durable and durable goods, an increase in savings coupled with a drop in the number and values of loans, and a reduction of in‐kind transfers received by households in treatment areas. These results are consistent with the existing evidence that conditional cash transfer programmes have beneficial effects in both the short and medium term, but that they partly crowd out private transfers.     

Sustainable technologies and the innovation–regulation paradox

This article examines the paradox between innovation and regulation and its implication for the adoption of sustainable technologies in the domestic sector of the construction industry. The case of UK is examined, where progress towards the inclusion of social and environmental considerations has been slow. Recent change in attitude in the private sector, combined with government initiatives, has prompted a more sustainable agenda in construction. With significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions required to meet climate change targets, the case for a particular energy-saving technology—natural thermal insulation materials for cavity wall insulation—suitable for widespread use in residential buildings, is assessed. In addition to the inherent conservatism in the construction industry, additional barriers inhibiting the uptake of new sustainable thermal insulation technologies include capital costs, the failure of the market to account for social and environmental costs and savings and their perceived cost-effectiveness and performance over a 50-year lifetime. Policy implications are drawn from the analysis.     

Mexico’s low carbon futures: An integrated assessment for energy planning and climate change mitigation by 2050

This paper shows an integrated assessment for energy planning and climate change mitigation in Mexico, as an international case study. The Mexico 2050 Calculator was used to run a number of low carbon future scenarios by 2050. The calculator consists of a whole-systems model, which combines the main sectors of the Mexican economy into a single visual tool. By integrating energy and carbon dynamics across all sectors and carrying out a sensitivity analysis of the entire model, we compare four low carbon energy scenarios to assess current energy policy strategies in the country. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to any other nation, particularly to those with similar models already available. Our findings show the relative impact of each sector and their various interactions for achieving Mexico’s ratified climate commitments. The paper also includes policy recommendations and highlights the need for scaling-up energy efficiency policy efforts in industry and transport, for having a higher focus on agricultural and land use policies, and for promoting integrated renewable energy policies.     

The missing link: Bringing institutions and politics into energy future studies

Energy future studies can be a useful tool for learning about how to induce and manage technical, economic and policy change related to energy supply and use. The private sector has successfully deployed them for strategic planning, examining key parameters such as markets, competition and consumer trends. However in public policy, most energy future studies remain disconnected from policy making. One reason is that they often ignore the key political and institutional factors that underpin much of the anticipated, wished-for or otherwise explored energy systems developments. Still, we know that institutions and politics are critical enablers or constraints to technical and policy change. This paper examines how analytical insights into political and institutional dynamics can enhance energy future studies. It develops an approach that combines systems-technical change scenarios with political and institutional analysis. Using the example of a backcasting study dealing with the long term low-carbon transformation of a national energy system, it applies two levels of institutional and political analysis; at the level of international regimes and at the level of sectoral policy, and examines how future systems changes and policy paths are conditioned by institutional change processes. It finds that the systematic application of these variables significantly enhances and renders more useful backcasting studies of energy futures.     

Equity Markets, Transactions Costs, and Capital Accumulation: An Illustration

Poorly developed equity markets inhibit the transfer of capitalownership. Moreover, the costs of transacting in equity marketsaffect not just the level of investment, but the kinds of investmentsthat are undertaken. Once equity markets allow the ownershipof capital to be transferred economically, reductions in coststend to favor the use of longer-maturity investments. When thereis a relationship between the maturity of an investment andits productivity, transactions cost reductions are conduciveto observing certain kinds of increases in productive efficiency.This article analyzes savings, investment, and consumption decisionsby using an overlapping generations model with two-period-livedagents. The analysis allows for several technologies for convertingcurrent output into future capital that vary by productivityand maturity, and it makes ownership of capital costly to transfer.A reduction in transactions costs will typically alter the compositionof savings and investment, and have potentially complicatedconsequences for capital accumulation and steady-state output.     

The Effect of House Prices on Household Consumption in Italy

This paper studies the effect of a change in real estate wealth on the consumption behaviour of Italian households, using the Bank of Italy’s Survey of Household Income and Wealth dataset. We relate annual household consumption to capital gains in housing, controlling for characteristics such as age. In line with the empirical predictions of our model, we find the oldest households—which are less affected by the higher costs of future rent—to be the most affected by increases in real net housing wealth. Younger households, on the other hand, are not significantly affected in their consumption decisions by house price increases. We also take into account the fact that benefiting from capital gains is conditional on owning housing wealth and estimate the different impacts of house price changes on the savings behaviours of both homeowners and renters. Our estimates suggest that house price increases raise consumption not only for homeowners but also for renters.     

Can enhancing financial inclusivity lower climate risks by inhibiting carbon emissions? Contextual evidence from emerging economies

Climate change is regarded as a global concern whereby lowering climate risks, especially by curbing greenhouse gas emissions, has become a critically important policy agenda worldwide. Hence, this study assesses whether financial inclusion, alongside energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy use, economic growth, international trade, and urbanization, can mitigate carbon dioxide emissions in 22 emerging economies. Considering the period of analysis from 2008 to 2018 and utilizing econometric methods robust to handling cross-sectionally-dependent, heterogeneous, and endogenous panel data, the findings reveal that financial inclusion is directly associated with higher discharges of carbon dioxide. Contrarily, energy efficiency improvement and higher share of renewable energy in the aggregate energy consumption level inhibit carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, energy efficiency gains moderate the financial inclusion-emissions nexus by jointly reducing carbon emissions with greater financial inclusivity. Finally, the results indicate that economic growth, international trade, and urbanization trigger climate risks by boosting the emission figures. In light of these findings, several carbon dioxide-mitigating policies are recommended for neutralizing climate risks in emerging countries of concern.     

World civilisations at crossroads: Towards an expansionist or a sustainable future—Lessons from history

Like may periods of the past, the future will be characterised by resource scarcities, with limited pollution sink capacities constituting a new constraint. The strategic choices discussed in the West today resemble quite closely the strategies developed in Europe during past centuries to deal with resource scarcities: to overcome them by means of market mechanisms leading to efficiency improvements and substitution, by global trade enhancing resource availability, or by forcefully seizing foreign resources. In order to learn lessons for the future, these strategies are discussed regarding their past performance and their present applicability. They face severe limits regarding their problem solving capabilities, either because they are structurally unsuitable as a response to global economic and environmental scarcity problems, or their success is too questionable to rely on it. Consequently, another strategy is needed to adapt human economies and societies to the limits of Planet Earth. Sustainable development is such a strategy, developed in Europe in the 18th century to deal with absolute scarcities; its roots help to understand its current relevance. In a globally interconnected world it cannot be operationalised top-down, but is dependent on cooperation to become effective. Sustainability strategies cannot be designed as one-size-fits-all solutions, but are civilisation specific. This in turn requires an international institutional framework based on the subsidiarity principle (the imperative to take decisions at the lowest effective level), requiring the acceptance of political and cultural diversity of the current and future world society. It encourages different civilisation specific development objectives and trajectories, however with all actors contributing in their own ways to the achievement of agreed common goals like combating climate change, preserving biodiversity or eradicating poverty, following the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities.     

Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm

Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher-Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.     

Governing the transition to low-carbon futures: A critical survey of energy scenarios for 2050

There is a growing scientific consensus that limiting the increase in global average temperature to around 2 °C above pre-industrial levels is necessary to avoid unacceptable impact on the climate system. This requires that the developed countries’ emissions are radically reduced during the next 40 years. Energy scenario studies provide insights on the societal transitions that might be implied by such low-carbon futures, and in this paper we discuss how a greater attention to different governance and institutional issues can complement future scenario exercises. The analysis is based on a critical review of 20 quantitative and qualitative scenario studies, all of relevance for meeting long-term climate policy objectives. The paper: (a) analyzes some key differences in energy technology mixes and primary energy use patterns across these studies; (b) briefly explores the extent and the nature of the societal challenges and policy responses implied; and (c) discusses a number of important implications for the design and scope of future scenario studies. Our review shows that in previous scenario studies the main attention is typically paid to analyzing the impact of well-defined and uniform policy instruments, while fewer studies factor in the role of institutional change in achieving different energy futures. We therefore point towards a number of strategies of integrating issues of transition governance into future scenario analyses, and argue for a closer synthesis of qualitative and quantitative scenario building.     

如何实现当前大学生思想政治教育创新的思考

创新教育是二十一世纪高等教育的重要任务.学生思想政治教育作为高等教育的重要组成部分,面对新世纪,必然提出学生思想政治教育创新的新课题.思想政治教育创新在高校教育中具有促进学生全面发展'培养学生竞争意识、形成学生团队精神、激发学生创造能力的作用.通过机制、内容和方法的创新来实现学生思想政治教育的全面创新.     

Interaction of individual framing and political orientation in guiding climate change risk perception

There is a general agreement that climate change is a potential hazard threatening the global village. An appropriate level of risk perception should be a critical issue in coping with the global environmental risk. We examined the determinants of the level of climate change risk perception. In particular, we examined if individual framing of climate change interacts with political orientation in guiding climate change risk perception. The main effect of the two factors was also investigated. A nationwide online survey (N = 592) was conducted in South Korea by a professional survey agent. When self-efficacy, trust, and other demographics were controlled for, multiple regression analyses revealed that those focusing on what is happening (diagnostic framing) rather than what-to-do (prognostic framing) had higher risk perception. More importantly, only conservatives showed significantly different levels of risk perception according to their framing of the issue. Conservatives inclined to diagnostic framing showed higher risk perception than conservatives favoring prognostic framing. This difference disappeared when it comes to South Korean liberals, indicating an interaction between individual framing and political orientation. The significance of investigating individual framing, not media framing, and their interaction with political orientation are discussed.