农村贫困地区支付环境建设中存在的问题及建议--以吉林省长岭县为例

长岭县位于吉林省西部,国土面积5728.4平方公里。长岭全年平均风速每秒3.5米以上,是吉林省有名的贫困地区。2015年,长岭县生产总值实现300亿元,全口径财政收入实现8.2亿元,地方级财政收入实现5.6亿元;完成固定资产投资224亿元;规模以上工业总产值实现374万元,增加值实现11%。新增规模以上工业企业没有;社会消费品零售总额实现115.7亿元;城镇居民人均支配收入达到2.2万元;农民人均纯收入达到1.1万元。全县乡级行政区22个,全县村级行政区232个,农村地区人口数量53.69万人,农村地区银行网点数量60个。     

Short‐Horizon Return Predictability in International Equity Markets

This study measures the degree of short‐horizon return predictability of 50 international equity markets and examines how its variation is related to the indicators of equity market development. Two multiple‐horizon variance ratio tests are employed to measure the degree of return predictability. We find evidence that return predictability is negatively correlated with publicly available indicators of equity market development. Our cross‐sectional regression analysis shows that the per capita gross domestic product, market turnover, investor protection, and absence of short‐selling restrictions are correlated with cross‐market variations in return predictability.     

A note on modelling economic growth determinants in the Dominican Republic

The article models economic growth determinants in the Dominican Republic. The exercise considers a panel of 25 candidate explanatory variables observed during the last three decades of the twentieth century. The time series are selected on the basis of economic theory and previous findings in the cross-country empirical growth literature. The modelling reveals that the annual growth rate of real gross domestic product per capita is, on average, inversely associated to a proxy for market distortions, and positively related to government expenditure, economic growth in the United States of America, and an index of globalization comprising international trade and migration variables.     

The Impact of Financial Development on Energy Demand: Evidence from China

An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds approach and vector error correction model (VECM) are used here to better understand the role of financial development in energy demand in China. Based on data from 1980 to 2014, the ARDL bounds approach yields empirical evidence that confirms the existence of long-run relationships among energy demand per capita, gross domestic product per capita, urbanization, economic structure, and financial development. The VECM framework shows the direction of Granger causality that combines the short run and the long run between the variables. The results suggest a feedback effect between financial development and energy demand per capita in the long run. However, financial development Granger causes per capita energy demand without a feedback effect in the short run. The results of this research may be of great importance for decision makers as they develop policies on energy and economic growth.     

Finance and European regional economy

This study computes banking risk indexes for European developing countries and analyses the impact of identified risk factors on economic growth across regions and cities. We examine the short-run and long-run behaviours of the series. The results reveal that real gross domestic product (RGDP) per capita co-moves with banking risk. We find that about 17% of focal regions suffer significantly from banking risk shocks. The effect ranges from 0.1% to 0.7%, with a lower magnitude for cities. Banking risk has the most detrimental effects in Russia. Short- and long-run decrements in RGDP range between 0.2% and 0.3% across the panel.     

Personal income tax mimicry: evidence from international panel data

This paper investigates personal income tax (PIT) mimicry at the international level. It is the first to empirically investigate the extent to which PIT mimicry varies along the tax schedule and the first to include nations which are not part of the OECD. We use data on international personal income tax schedules from the world tax indicators to estimate marginal and average tax rates at various multiples of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). These tax rates are then used to estimate the extent to which countries respond to their neighbors’ PIT policy. We find evidence of PIT mimicry using a balanced panel of 53 countries over 24 years. This finding is strongest for tax rates at lower multiples of per capita GDP and survives several robustness checks.     

Institutions,Informal Economy,and Economic Development

Using cross-national panel data, we examine the evolution of the informal economy through the course of economic development. Borrowing from previously published informal economy estimates for 141 countries over the period 1984-2009 and using panel data estimation techniques, we investigate the relationship between informal economy and the level of economic development, proxied by gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. Our findings suggest that institutional quality strongly interacts with this relationship. Specifically, we find that a higher GDP per capita is associated with a larger informal sector size in countries where the institutional quality is low. The opposite is true in countries with good institutions. These results are also in line with a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model.     

基于灰色关联分析的区域保险差异影响因素分析

区域保险差异是我国保险业发展过程中的不争事实,在构建区域保险差异层次结构和衡量指标的基础上,对形成区域保险差异的影响因素进行假设,并通过灰色关联分析方法实证研究发现,影响区域保险差异的相关因素依次是国内生产总值、人均可支配收入、城乡居民储蓄存款余额、人口数量、人们风险意识以及社会保障福利费.     

Government size and economic growth in emerging market economies: a panel co-integration approach

A significant positive influence of both government size and domestic investment on economic growth is found in the long run during 1970–2006 for a sample of 19 emerging market economies, employing panel co-integration testing and estimating the parameters using dynamic ordinary least square method, for all the indicators, excepting the case when one chooses general government final consumption expenditure as a percentage of GDP a measure of government size and gross capital formation as a percentage of GDP a measure of domestic investment, with per capita GDP a proxy for economic growth. The findings corroborate the argument that diverse results of the earlier studies are due to different measures adopted.     

Infrastructure, Externalities, and Economic Development: A Study of the Indian Manufacturing Industry

If infrastructure tends to generate spillover externalities,as has been the assumption in much of the development literature,one may reasonably look for evidence of such indirect effectsin the accounts of manufacturing industries. Empirical supportfor this assumption has so far been ambiguous. This analysisof Indian data, however, reveals substantial externality effectsfrom the states’ infrastructure to manufacturing productivity.The analysis separates the direct effects of roads and electricity,as mediated by the infrastructure services purchased by manufacturingindustries along with other intermediate inputs, from the indirecteffects, as measured by the impact of infrastructure capacityon the Solow productivity residual. In the 20 years from 1972to 1992, growth of road and electricity-generating capacityseems to have accounted for nearly half the growth of the productivityresidual of India’s registered manufacturing.     

Determinants of tax revenue in OECD countries over the period 2001–2011

By using static and dynamic panel data techniques, this paper analyses the impact of economic, structural, institutional and social factors on tax revenue, across 34 countries from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, over the period 2001–2011. The results show that gross domestic product per capita, the industrial sector, and civil liberties have positive impact on the dependent variable, while the agricultural sector and the share of foreign direct investment in gross fixed capital formation have negative impact. The lagged value of the dependent variable enters positively in the equation and its effect is larger in high income countries. We also encounter tax effort and tax gap and find that they are stable over time but diverse across countries regardless the level of development of the economies.     

International Evidence on the Determinants of Private Saving

A broad set of possible determinants of private saving behavioris examined using data for a large sample of industrial anddeveloping countries. Both time-series and crosssectional estimatesare obtained. Results suggest that there is a partial offseton private saving of changes in public saving and (for developingcountries) in foreign saving, that demographics and growth areimportant determinants of private saving rates, and that interestrates and terms of trade have positive, but less robust, effects.Increases in per capita gross domestic product seem to increasesaving at low income levels (relative to the United States)but decrease it at higher ones.     

Economic Globalization and Financial Development in East Asia: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis

This study examines the role of economic globalization in financial development in eight East Asian economies. The heterogeneous panel cointegration test reveals that cointegration is present among economic globalization, institutions, financial development, real gross domestic product per capita, and financial reforms. The Granger causality test results indicate that economic globalization has a significant causal influence on institutional quality, and institutional reforms have in turn facilitated and supported financial development, in particular of the banking sector in East Asia. Economic globalization is also found to have a favorable causal impact on stock market development without going through the institutional quality channel.     

Are investors moonstruck? Further international evidence on lunar phases and stock returns

This study uses an alternative model specification to re-examine the influences of the new moon and the full moon on the daily returns of 62 international stock indices for the period 1988 to 2008. The fixed effects panel model incorporates the prior day effect and two calendar anomalies, i.e., the Monday effect and the turn-of-the-month effect, to assess variations in the lunar influences. A covariate, based on per capita gross domestic product (GDP), examines how the results vary between countries. The prior day effect is greater for less developed countries. The overall enhanced new moon effect is independent of GDP. An overall full moon effect is absent. These lunar effects are weakly influenced by the calendar anomalies.     

Modeling the macroeconomic effects of AIDS, with an application to Tanzania.

The 1956 Solow growth model is expanded to study the effects of the AIDS epidemic on the growth path of the economy and per capita GDP (gross domestic product). AIDS and no-AIDS scenarios are compared analytically and via simulations based upon Tanzanian demographic and macroeconomic data. The 1st section discusses various channels through which AIDS might affect the macroeconomy and describes its expected demographic impact in Tanzania. The model incorporating these key channels is then developed in the 2nd section. It is employed specifically to discuss the likely effect on the ratio of capital to labor and on output per capita as the economy moves from a no-AIDS situation toward a new steady state in which AIDS is assumed to be endemic. A simple simulation model in the 3rd section forecasts the time paths of macro aggregates in Tanzania as the prevalence of AIDS increases. These time paths are then compared with simulated results for a no-AIDS situation to determine the severity of the impact of the disease on the growth path of the Tanzanian economy, Bulatao's 1990 demographic scenarios are input in the simulated version of the model. The 4th section concludes by considering the policy implications of the analysis. The analysis indicates that without decisive policy action AIDS may reduce the GDP of Tanzania in the year 2010 by 15-25% over what it would be if AIDS did not exist. Per capita income levels are expected to fall by 0-10% by the year 2010.     

Further results on the macroeconomic effects of AIDS: the dualistic, labor-surplus economy.

Analyses by Cuddington in 1993 and forthcoming work from Cuddington and Hancock model the macroeconomic effects of the AIDS epidemic using a modified Solow growth model. This single-sector framework rests upon the assumption that labor and capital are always efficiently allocated throughout the economy with neither market failures nor policy-induced distortions resulting in resource misallocation. Economies in low-income developing countries in sub-Saharan Africa, however, are not operating at capacity. Impact models based upon the potential growth path of economies will therefore significantly overstate the effect of an AIDS epidemic. The author thus incorporates the presence of underemployment and dual labor markets to redress the limitations of these earlier impact models. The dual-economy simulations of the economic impact of AIDS using Tanzanian data suggest that the macroeconomic consequences of the epidemic are of the same order of magnitude as those obtained using a single-sector, full-employment model: gross domestic product (GDP) is 15-25% smaller by 2010 than it would have been without AIDS, and per capita GDP is 0-10% smaller. Output lost from AIDS in the dual-economy framework is approximately the same as the output gain achievable through policies designed to increase labor market flexibility. Findings suggest that serious economic reform in economies fraught with AIDS may lessen the negative economic effects of the epidemic.     

Big business stability and economic growth: Is what's good for General Motors good for America?

What is good for a country may not be good for its big businesses, at least recently. More turnover in top businesses correlates with faster per capita gross domestic product, productivity, and capital growth; supporting Schumpeter's [1942. Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, third ed., Harper & Bros., New York, NY] theory of “creative destruction”—innovative firms blooming as stagnant ones wither. These correlations are greater in more developed economies, supporting Aghion and Howitt's [1992. A model of growth through creative destruction. Econometrica 60, 323–351] thesis that creative destruction matters more to economies nearer the technological frontier. More big business turnover also correlates with smaller government, common law, less bank-dependence, stronger shareholder rights, and greater openness.     

Using artificial neural network and multivariate analysis techniques to evaluate road operating conditions

Regional paved roads are low volume roads with a prevalence of heavy traffic. In the world, these roads concern about 80% of the total road network; however, the traffic that affects these roads is about 20%. Since regional roads are characterized by weak demand, budget for their management/maintenance is very low. This produces considerable difficulties in the choice of strategies for maintenance planning and scheduling. For this reason, the recurring topics of research in this field deal with typical roads issues and aim to develop low cost tools and methods. The study proposes a decision support system to evaluate regional paved roads operating condition in relation to the hydrogeological situation. In particular, the system allows to evaluate in a quick and easy manner, the operating conditions of the road, through low-cost tools (i.e. using low economic resources). This is very useful in the case of LVRs because administrations for these roads have a limited budget. The procedure is developed on a regional paved roads network based on more than 80 roads located in Southern Italy. Data is collected by direct surveys in the field and is integrated with cartography and information available in road agency records. From data analysis, obtained using two different techniques, an easy and quick use procedure is made. In particular, Model 1 is built through multivariate analysis and Model 2 using the artificial neural network (ANN) technique. The results show the validity of the two models in Regional paved roads operating conditions estimation in relation to hydrogeological situations of sites. Both models show good reliability. In particular, the first model (Model 1) is characterized by a high level of significance (p < 0.01) and by a coefficient of determination equal to 0.82. Comparative tests between the second model (Model 2) on which standard tests cannot be performed for obvious reasons, and the first model (Model 1). The results show that the ANN model (model 2), characterized by lower residual, simulates more accurately than the second (Model 1).     

Understanding Patterns of Economic Growth: Searching for Hills among Plateaus, Mountains, and Plains

The historical path of gross domestic product (GDP) per capitain the United States is, except for the interlude of the GreatDepression, well characterized by reasonably stable exponentialtrend growth with modest cyclical deviations: graphically, itis a modestly sloping, slightly bumpy hill. However, almostnothing that is true of U.S. GDP per capita (or that of othercountries of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation andDevelopment) is true of the growth experience of developingcountries. A single time trend does not adequately characterizethe evolution of GDP per capita in most developing countries.Instability in growth rates over time for a single country isgreat, relative to both the average level of growth and thevariance across countries. These shifts in growth rates leadto distinct patterns. While some countries have steady growth(hills and steep hills), others have rapid growth followed bystagnation (plateaus), rapid growth followed by decline (mountains)or even catastrophic falls (cliffs), continuous stagnation (plains),or steady decline (valleys). Volatility, however defined, isalso much greater in developing than in industrial countries.These stylized facts about the instability and volatility ofgrowth rates in developing countries imply that the explodingeconometric growth literature that makes use of the panel natureof data is unlikely to be informative. In contrast, researchinto what initiates (or halts) episodes of growth has high potential.