Particulate matter air pollution control programs in Japan — an analysis of cost savings in the absence of future remediation

The objectives of this study were to assess avoided economic costs (or anticipated ‘benefits’) of not implementing new environmental policies for particulate matter (PM) in Japan and compare these future benefits to estimates of future health risks developed in a separate analysis. The estimates for the benefits of avoided PM pollution control in the year 2010 were (1) $27 billion USD for stationary source controls, (2) $2.1 billion to $3.3 billion USD for diesel motor vehicle controls, (3) $41 million USD for governmental employee salaries, (4) $470 million USD for governmental financial assistance, (5) $510 million USD for special diesel vehicle control measures in Tokyo, and (6) $31 billion USD for total costs.

Using human health and productivity risks, calculated in a separate study to be $56 billion USD, the best net ratio of benefits to costs was 1.8 to 1. Inexpensive control options include road watering or paving for unpaved dirt roads and road vacuuming for paved roads. Intermediate options include differential road pricing, retrofitting diesel particulate filters, and reformulating diesel fuel. High cost options include adding particulate controls, such as wet scrubbers, baghouses, and electrostatic precipitators on uncontrolled stationary sources.     

Interregional Income Redistribution and Convergence in a Model with Perfect Capital Mobility and Unionized Labor Markets

The model presents a general equilibrium dynamic model of an economy consisting of many regions. Capital is perfectly mobile and labor is immobile across regions. Wages are determined by local unions. There is training on the job and strategic complementarity between investment in physical capital by firms and investment in becoming “trainable’’ by workers. Structurally similar regional economies preserve forever their differences in per capita output and employment rate, if the workers’ non-labor income is equalized across regions by interregional income redistribution operated via central budget. Regional decentralization of income redistribution allows convergence in per capita output and employment rate.     

区域战略性新兴产业选择研究

本文重点关注＂区域性、战略性和新兴性＂三个特征,区域战略性新兴产业选择应坚持国家意志与区域特征相结合、定量分析与定性分析相结合、增长潜力与关联带动相结合以及技术创新与持续发展相结合的四个原则。基于以上原则,构建出＂区域战略性新兴产业选择五力模型＂,即包含产业惯性力、产业发展力、产业带动力、产业创新力和产业持续力的＂五力＂因素,具体分解出包括14个指标的选择指标体系。依据以上选择指标体系,本文综合运用层次分析法（AHP）和Del-phi法,建立起一个主客观方法相结合的区域战略性新兴产业选择模型。     

Risk-type density diagrams by crash type on two-lane rural roads

The research presented here aims to plot density diagrams per road crash risk type to identify all possible scenarios where driving is less than safe. The starting point was the prediction of injury crash rate on horizontal homogeneous segments of two-lane rural roads for three main injurious crash types (head-on/side collisions, rear-end crashes, and single-vehicle run-off-road crashes) as observed on the network. A careful analysis of the database shows that a wide variety of factors appear to be influenced or associated with the crash dynamic, as follows: the road scenario (combination of infrastructure and environmental conditions found at the site at the time of the crash), mean lane width, the horizontal curvature indicator (measurement of the curvature change rate), and mean speed. Crashes recorded from 2003 to 2010, of which 1597 were injurious, and 645 resulted only in damage to property, were analyzed on more than 3700?km of road network in Southern Italy. Generalized estimating equations with a negative binomial distribution were implemented. Risk-type density charts were plotted to thoroughly identify all possible combinations of existing explicative variables producing hazardous conditions on the road. The different shades in the diagrams represent different ranges of injurious crash rates: the white band shows low levels, while a black band shows high values. It is not possible to consider working on an explanatory variable to reduce hazardous conditions on the road network without also considering how this variation might affect the influence of the remaining explanatory variables on crash phenomena and, consequently, on the predictive model. The risk maps make it possible to keep under control in a simple and immediate approach the way each variable as a result of variations of a part or of all.     

A Database of World Stocks of Infrastructure, 1950-95

This article describes an annual database of physical infrastructurestocks for a cross-section of 152 countries for 1950–95.The database includes estimates of six measures of infrastructure:the number of telephones, the number of telephone main lines,kilowatts of electricity-generating capacity, kilometers oftotal roads, kilometers of paved roads, and kilometers of railwaylines. Both raw and manipulated data sets, in which series havebeen linked to overcome changes in definition and coverage,are reported. Some measures of infrastructure quality, suchas the percentage of roads in poor condition, the percentageof local telephone calls that do not go through, the percentageof diesel locomotives available for use, and the percentageof electricity lost from the distribution system, are included.The data on all series except total roads are of reasonablygood quality and should prove useful to researchers. The article also presents regression results relating stocksof infrastructure to population, per capita gross domestic product,land area, and level of urbanization. It shows that stocks oftelephones, electricity-generating capacity, and paved roadstend to increase proportionately with population and more thanproportionately with per capita gross domestic product. Boththe length of total roads and the length of total rail linesrise with country size and are relatively insensitive to populationand income.     

NEURO‐GENETIC PREDICTIONS OF CURRENCY CRISES

We create a neuro‐genetic (NG) model for predicting currency crises by using a genetic algorithm for specifying (1) the combination of inputs, (2) the network configuration and (3) the training parameters for a back‐propagation artificial neural network (ANN). The performance of the NG model is evaluated by comparing it with standalone probit and ANN models in terms of utility for a policy decision‐maker. We show that the NG model provides better in‐sample and out‐of‐sample performance, as well as provides an automatic and more objective calibration of a predictive ANN model. We show that using a genetic algorithm for finding an optimal model specification for an ANN is not only less laborious for the analyst, but also more accurate in terms of classifying in‐sample and predicting out‐of‐sample crises. For a sufficiently parsimonious, but still nonlinear, model for generalized processing of out‐of‐sample data, the creation and evaluation of models is performed objectively using only in‐sample information as well as an early stopping procedure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

HIGH‐FREQUENCY EXCHANGE‐RATE PREDICTION WITH AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

This paper examines how market microstructure variables can be used to forecast foreign exchange (FX) rates at frequencies of one to several minutes. We use a unique FX dataset of global inter‐dealer electronic transactions and applied the artificial neural network (ANN) as the predicting model. The immediately preceding bid and ask prices are significant factors in these predictions, which is in keeping with market microstructure theory. These microstructure factors have not been tested in an ANN model before. High‐frequency trading strategies based on the ANN model are shown to be profitable even when transaction costs are included. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Roads, Land Use, and Deforestation: A Spatial Model Applied to Belize

Rural roads promote economic development, but they also facilitatedeforestation. To explore this tradeoff, this article developsa spatially explicit model of land use and estimates probabilitiesof alternative land uses as a function of land characteristicsand distance to market using a multinomial logit specificationof this model. Controls are incorporated for the endogeneityof road placement. The model is applied to data for southern Belize, an area experiencingrapid expansion of both subsistence and commercial agriculture,using geographic information system (GIS) techniques to selectsample points at 1-kilometer intervals. Market access, landquality, and tenure status affect the probability of agriculturalland use synergistically, having differential effects on thelikelihood of commercial versus semisubsistence farming. Theresults suggest that road building in areas with agriculturallypoor soils and low population densities may be a "lose-lose"proposition, causing habitat fragmentation and providing loweconomic returns.     

The future of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

Concern about the future of Amazonian forests is growing as both the extent and rate of primary forest destruction increase. We combine spatial information on various biophysical, demographic and infrastructural factors in the Brazilian Amazon with satellite data on deforestation to evaluate the relative importance of each factor to deforestation in the region. We assess the sensitivity of results to alternative sampling methodologies, and compare our results to those of previous empirical studies of Amazonian deforestation. Our findings, in concert with those of previous studies, send a clear message to planners: both paved and unpaved roads are key drivers of the deforestation process. Proximity to previous clearings, high population densities, low annual rainfall, and long dry seasons also increase the likelihood that a site will be deforested; however, roads are consistently important and are the factors most amenable to policymaking. We argue that there is ample evidence to justify a fundamental change in current Amazonian development priorities if additional large-scale losses of forests and environmental services are to be avoided.     

企业资金战略预算管理模式研究

企业资金战略预算管理模式创新既是企业财务管理模式创新的重要内容,也是企业管理模式创新的关键环节和核心内容之一,它直接关系到企业财务战略管理的决策效率。本文以企业科学理财观为导向,基于利益相关者合作逻辑,以企业资金最大化增值为主线,以强化企业资金战略风险管理为实现路径,对企业资金战略预算模式创新问题进行了研究。文章揭示了资金战略预算管理模式的内涵;构建了企业资金战略预算管理指标体系,透视了资金战略预算管理的运作模式;分析了资金战略预算管理模式面临的风险性、适时性和有效性问题;提出了解决资金战略预算管理问题的有效策略,以此确保企业资金战略管理目标的实现。     

Comparing Investments in New Transport Infrastructure: Roads versus Railways?

This paper contributes to the debate on investment in transport infrastructure and the allocation of public funds between road and railway projects. We model the two options and provide a consistent framework to appraise investment in typical new inter–urban road and rail projects. Our results suggest that road improvements have substantially higher returns than railway schemes. These findings cast doubt on the rationale of the new transport policy for the UK, which proposes to allocate more public funds to the (private) railways than total new investment in strategic roads.     

Black–Scholes versus artificial neural networks in pricing FTSE 100 options

This paper compares the performance of Black–Scholes with an artificial neural network (ANN) in pricing European‐style call options on the FTSE 100 index. It is the first extensive study of the performance of ANNs in pricing UK options, and the first to allow for dividends in the closed‐form model. For out‐of‐the‐money options, the ANN is clearly superior to Black–Scholes. For in‐the‐money options, if the sample space is restricted by excluding deep in‐the‐money and long maturity options (3.4% of total volume), then the performance of the ANN is comparable to that of Black–Scholes. The superiority of the ANN is a surprising result, given that European‐style equity options are the home ground of Black–Scholes, and suggests that ANNs may have an important role to play in pricing other options for which there is either no closed‐form model, or the closed‐form model is less successful than is Black–Scholes for equity options. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Organization size, budget cycle, and budget related influence in city governments: An empirical study

This paper explores the relationship between budgeting and perceived power in city government organizations. Data are reported from a survey of perceived budget influence in six city governments in Texas. The findings suggest that perceived influence varies by stage of budget cycle, city size, level of hierarchy, department function, and vertical vs horizontal direction of influence. For example, during budget formulation city managers were perceived as having the most vertical power. During budget implemetation, there was a perceived increase in department head vertical power and a decrease in city council power. Perceptions of horizontal power suggested that budget departments generally had greater perceived influence than operating departments for budget formulation, but not for budget implementation. The findings are used to develop a strategic contingencies model of budget-related power, and to suggest some research steps for testing the proposed model.     

Land Under Roads - A Financial Bonanza OR Fool's Gold?

This paper critically reviews and rejects the requirement that councils value the land under their roads and include it in their financial statements. Land under roads is a public good which does not satisfy the requirements for recognition as an asset. Moreover, it does not need to be valued financially for purposes of road management. Councils are cowect in opposing the requirement of AAS 27. The inclusion of land under roads as a council asset distorts the representation of their financial position.     

Bailouts in a Federation

The recent move towards decentralization in countries such as Spain, Hungary, and South Africa and the difficulties that central governments have had in dealing with fiscal irresponsibility on the part of regional governments in countries such as Argentina, Brazil, and India has made the study of transfer systems one of the most important areas of research in federalism today. A model of a federation is developed in which regional governments act as Nash competitors with each other but are first-movers in a Stackelberg game with the central government. The central government finds that it will maximize its expected votes by increasing transfers as regions borrow. This bail out of regional governments creates a regional soft budget constraint and results in two incentive effects, a common pool effect on tax payments and an opportunity cost effect. The soft budget constraint lowers the opportunity cost of borrowing for the region, but also increases the tax-cost since a portion of the borrowing must be paid for through increased taxes. The common property problem associated with tax payments implies that the increased tax cost must be less than the decrease in the opportunity cost (leading to excessive borrowing) unless the central government increases grants to other regions when it institutes a bailout. Somewhat surprisingly, in the latter case the additional increased taxes may increase costs enough to offset the lower opportunity cost resulting from the bailout, leading to efficient borrowing decisions as in the case of a hard budget constraint. The results are also useful for understanding the empirical estimation of soft budget constraints.     

Pricing,operating efficiency,and profitability among large commercial banks

This study uses statistical cost accounting techniques to examine the relationship between bank profitability and two dimensions of operating performance — pricing and operating efficiency. The traditional statistical cost accounting model, which relates a firm's income to its asset and liability mix, is expanded to account for differences in market structure, regional demand and supply conditions, and macroeconomics factors. The study focuses on large (above $500 million in domestic deposits) banks, comparing a sample of relatively profitable banks against a matched group of much less profitable banks over the period 1970–1977. After allowing for regional supply and demand factors, the high and low-profit banks are estimated to earn equal market rates of return on individual assets and liabilities. There is virtually no evidence that differential prices are an important discriminator between the two bank groups. Some evidence is found that the high-earnings banks experience lower operating costs on some liabilities, but the opposite is true with respect to selected asset items. After taxes are taken into account, however, any such cost differentials virtually disappear. Overall, there is no compelling evidence that high-profit banks are characterized by greater operating efficiency than their low-earnings counterparts. This finding is consistent with the view that over time, and especially among relatively large banks, information flows and competitive pressures act to reduce operating efficiency differences that may appear in the short run.     

中国城市网络结构及空间关联性 ——来自"网络流"数据的分析

基于中国城市之间的关联特征和溢出效应,将人力资本变量纳入引力模型,运用社会网络分析和机器学习方法并依据主要节点城市的有向数据,考量城市网络结构及其关联性.结果显示:新引力模型可有效衡量样本城市的网络关联效应,金融状况、港口距离和高等教育资源丰裕度是决定城市引力流量重要原因,政府干预对城市引力流作用不明显;城市空间分布呈现明显的四级分层特征,但从人力资本对城市引力流影响看,作为中心城市的广州和深圳在网络拓扑中心的稳定性相对较弱.     

Financial structure,informality and development

The impact of capital market imperfections and costs of creating and operating formal sector firms on total factor productivity is studied. We propose a firm dynamics model with endogenous formal and informal sectors where firms face a technology adoption opportunity. The model predicts that countries with a low degree of debt enforcement and high costs of formality are characterized by low allocative efficiency and large output shares produced by low productivity, informal sector firms. For frictions parametrized using the Doing Business database, the model generates a drop in total factor productivity of up to 25% relative to the US.     

Budgeting—the Role of Trust and Participation: A Research Note

Prior studies have found a combination of an evaluative style with high budget emphasis and high participation to be associated with better behavioural outcomes (e.g., lower job-related tension) than all other combinations of budget emphasis and participation. Yet there has been little research to investigate the theory on why this particular combination of budget emphasis and participation is associated with better behavioural outcomes. A path analytical model, which investigates the intervening effects of trust and participation on the relationship between budget emphasis and job-related tension, was used. Senior Norwegian managers were selected as subjects for this study. The results indicate that budget emphasis has an insignificant direct effect on job-related tension but a strong indirect effect through trust and participation. Trust also has an intervening effect on the relationship between budgetary participation and job-related tension. It is therefore possible to conclude that high budget emphasis is associated with high budgetary participation and high trust. High trust, in turn, is associated with reduced subordinates' job-related tension.     

刘易斯模型与托达罗模型的否定之否定--城市化战略的理论回顾与现实思考

城市化是刘易斯二元经济发展理论的基本政策含义。否定刘易斯模型的托达罗模型导致了农业发展低水平均衡、经济增长低效率和经济结构低级化等消极后果。走出托达罗困境的可行选择 ,是经过修正和补充的刘易斯模型的复归。伴随着发展中国家经济发展战略重点的转换 ,经济发展理论走出了一条螺旋式上升的成长道路