发展中国家货币危机以及对中国的启示

本文主要以阿根廷、土耳其和印度尼西亚这三个发展中国家为例,通过介绍各自货币危机发生的情况和原因,寻找共性并进行总结,提炼出发展中国家容易引发货币危机的主要原因:长期面临高外债、高通胀、国家经济结构单一和外汇储备偿债能力不足。并针对这些原因,结合我国当前经济发展特点,提出了要未雨绸缪,避免发生货币危机的对策建议:即保持外债负债率整体可控,警惕外债债务率过高、保持外汇储备偿债能力充足,增持黄金等稳定的外汇资产和控制货币供应量,抑制通货膨胀。     

Money,Bitcoin, and Monetary Policy

A search-theoretic model is constructed, where money and Bitcoin can be used as mediums of exchange. We investigate how each currency facilitates transactions and how they compete with each other. Quantitative analysis shows that welfare in an economy with both money and Bitcoin is lower than in a money-only economy due to congestions in the confirmation of Bitcoin transactions and that the welfare gap between the two economies expands as inflation rises. Moreover, an increase in transaction fees for Bitcoin can increase welfare by reducing inefficient Bitcoin transactions.     

Are Open Markets Good for Foreign Investors and Emerging Nations?

Although policymakers of emerging nations routinely brand foreign capital as "hot money" and hold it responsible for the ills of their economies, this article suggests that the experience of opening up their markets to overseas investors has been largely beneficial for the host countries. Based on their own recent study, the authors report that when emerging economies open their markets, the level of stock prices tends to rise without an associated increase in volatility, and more capital becomes available for domestic investment at a lower cost. The stock markets also appear to become more efficient, thus resulting in a better allocation of resources. Furthermore, the inflow of foreign capital does not lead to higher inflation or stronger currencies, nor does the volatility of inflation or exchange rates increase. If some countries experience large capital outflows with damaging consequences, the culprit is not foreign investors, but rather policymakers' futile attempt to defy market forces and the failure of their economies to put the capital to productive uses.
The authors' analysis also suggests that, when the recent turmoil in emerging markets is set in the context of a longer-run historical perspective, nothing appears to have changed that would materially alter the prospects for investing in emerging markets. The recent market volatility and currency crises in emerging nations are by no means extraordinary—indeed, the currencies of many developing countries fall routinely. What distinguishes the Mexican and Thai currency crises from such run-of-the-mill devaluations is that both governments resisted the inevitable until market forces brought about a crash. The recent emerging market currency crises should accordingly be viewed as more or less predictable "road bumps" that can be expected when the policymakers of emerging economies gradually—and grudgingly—relinquish their power to the markets.     

Bitcoin – Its Economics for Financial Reporting

Despite its increasing popularity, no official guidance on the financial reporting of Bitcoin transactions has been provided by standard setters, although tax accounting guidance began to appear in 2014. Designed as a decentralised currency, Bitcoin is not intended to become a reporting currency and will instead complement fiat money. We argue that in the case of Bitcoin the accounting principle of faithful representation requires interpretation of the economic substance for financial reporting that varies with reporting entity: trading firms recognise Bitcoin like a foreign currency and measure the revenue, or expense, at the equivalent amount of the reporting currency and digital currency exchanges recognise Bitcoin as goods in line with tax accounting treatment. An Economica paper by Radford (1945), which describes the use of cigarettes as commodity money in a prisoner of war camp alludes to this economic basis. This paper applies accounting principles to a practical issue and contributes to the process by which standard setters may issue an interpretation.     

The transactions demand for money in a two-currency economy

In this paper the model of the transactions demand for money of Baumol (1952) is extended to an economy where transactions are conducted in two currencies. The currency substitution hypothesis - that the domestic demand for domestic money depends on the expected rate of depreciation, as well as the domestic rate of interest and level of income - is derived from the model. In addition, several new insights into the implications of currency substitution are provided.     

Commodity money inflation: theory and evidence from France in 1350–1436

This paper presents a theory of inflation in commodity money and supports it by evidence from inflationary episodes in France during the 14th and 15th centuries. The paper shows that commodity money can be inflated similarly to fiat money through repeated debasements, which act like devaluations. Furthermore, as with fiat money, demand for commodity money falls with inflation. However, at high rates of inflation demand for commodity money becomes insensitive to inflation, since commodity money has intrinsic value in addition to its transactions value. Finally, we show that anticipated stabilization reduces demand for commodity money.     

Accounting for Foreign Business

The currency translation problem is the same in kind as the inflation accounting problem. No demonstrable connection may be made between financial information and evaluation or choice unless the components of the information are derived uniformly in a dated setting. Proposals hitherto suffer in different degrees from heterotemporal aggregation and cross-temporal translation. By recourse to four examples of different relations between an investor company and foreign investees, an integral method is described for dealing with foreign transactions and investments, where prices and inflation rates are different and exchange rates may vary. The essence of the process is that the components of financial statements shall be made to correspond with their factual or factually based features from time to time.     

Monetary policy, ‘dollarization,’ and parallel market exchange rates: The case of the Dominican Republic

Excessive money creation may give rise to inflation tax revenues and to a depreciation of the domestic currency. this in turn leads to a shift away from the domestic currency into a foreign currency (e.g., the US dollar, hence the term ‘dollarization’). From the domestic monetary authority's point of view, ‘dollarization’ is an unwelcomed phenomenomn, thus the monetary authorities will attempt to arrest the ‘dollarization’ phenomenon while maintaining the excessive money growth. This paper develops and tests a model which analyzes the effects of monetary policy on dollarization and the ‘parallel’ market exchange rates.     

Currency substitution, capital mobility and money demand

This paper re-examines the currency substitution (CS) issue by specifying a general portfolio balance (PB) model where domestic residents' demand for foreign money is distinguished from their demands for foreign non-monetary assets. The latter possibility, which reflects international capital mobility as opposed to CS per se, is already a key feature in the open-economy macro literature. The inclusion of foreign money leaves the usual asset demand functions unchanged (in the PB model that ignores CS), at least as far as the appropriate rate-of-return arguments and their signs are concerned. Although this suggests that CS is of limited importance in macro modelling, it implication for the estimation of money demand functions is pursued. An initial attempt is made to empirically isolate the separate efects of high capital mobility and currency substitution for Canada, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The results, while not conclusive due to high multicollinearity problems, bring into question the empirical as well as the theoretical relevance of currency substitution.     

Revenue maximizing inflation

A classic monetary policy result is that revenue maximization entails setting the inflation tax rate equal to the inverse of the interest semi-elasticity of the demand for money. The standard approach underlying “Cagan's rule” is partial equilibrium in nature, treating money demand as being given from outside the model and abstracting from the real effects of inflation. This paper reconsiders the question of the revenue maximizing inflation rate in a general equilibrium framework with a labor-leisure choice, where money is held because it reduces transactions costs. In this framework, the revenue maximizing inflation tax rate is lower than that implied by Cagan's rule.     

U.S. domestic money, inflation and output

Recent empirical research documents that the strong short-term relationship between U.S. monetary aggregates on one side and inflation and real output on the other has mostly disappeared since the early 1980s. Using the direct estimate of flows of U.S. dollars abroad we find that domestic money (currency corrected for the foreign holdings of dollars) contains valuable information about future movements of U.S. inflation and real output. Statistical evidence suggests that the Friedman-Schwartz stylized facts can be reestablished once the focus of analysis is back on the correct measure of domestic monetary aggregates.     

中华经济圈的货币合作与汇率协调

两岸三地进行货币合作可进一步扩大区内贸易、降低交易成本和减少外汇储备.两岸三地在失业率、通货膨胀率、财政赤字、公共债务、货币供给等方面具有相关性和趋同现象.区内货币汇率具有相同的波动趋势,为中华经济圈的货币合作和汇率协调奠定了经济基础.     

对中国通货膨胀的基本判断及货币政策建议

中国宏观经济正处于一个通货膨胀的通道之中,但中国强有力的货币政策措施效果不显著。究其原因,在于本轮通货膨胀具有不同以往的外源性特征,其中包含了美国美元贬值阴谋。正因为中国通货膨胀仅仅是全球性通货膨胀的一部分,同时中国承担着全球性通货膨胀成本,因此解决通货膨胀问题,并非中国的"家务事"。在此背景中,针对国内通货膨胀问题,中国不能急于求成,而只能顺势而为,以财政政策为主,来弱化通胀之负作用。货币政策作为辅助性政策,仅需要保持从紧状态,避免信贷失控即可。     

Foreign Demand for Domestic Currency and the Optimal Rate of Inflation

We characterize the Ramsey optimal rate of inflation in a model with a foreign demand for domestic currency. In the absence of such demand, the model implies that the Friedman rule—deflation at the real rate of interest—is optimal. We show analytically that in the presence of a foreign demand for domestic currency, this result breaks down. Calibrated versions of the model deliver optimal annual rates of inflation between 2% and 10%. The domestically benevolent government imposes an inflation tax to extract resources from the rest of the world in the form of seignorage revenue.     

Presidential Address: Debt and Money: Financial Constraints and Sovereign Finance

Economic analyses of corporate finance, money, and sovereign debt are largely considered separately. I introduce a novel corporate finance framing of sovereign finance based on the analogy between fiat liabilities for sovereigns and equity for corporations. The analysis focuses on financial constraints at the country level, making explicit the trade‐offs involved in relying on domestic versus foreign‐currency debt to finance investments or government expenditures. This framing provides new insights into issues ranging from the costs and benefits of inflation, optimal foreign exchange reserves, and sovereign debt restructuring.     

International reserves and global interest rates

In this paper we study the relationship between foreign currency international reserve holdings and global interest rates. To guide empirical work we solve a simple, small open-economy model with money, where the central bank manages international reserves to smooth inflation over time. This model shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to the target level of reserves. As a consequence interest rate hikes increase reserve transfers, defined as the change in international reserves net of the interest earned on reserves. Using quarterly data for 75 countries between 2000 and 2013, we document a positive relationship between interest-rate changes and reserve transfers as a share of GDP, that is consistent with the model.     

货币因素、供给冲击与中国通胀动态特征

本文将以货币供应量和汇率为代表的货币因素、供给因素以及需求因素引入菲利普斯曲线建立了新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线,并利用1995年第1季度～2013年第2季度的数据来实证分析不同因素对于我国通货膨胀动态衍化的影响。研究表明：前瞻性预期与通货膨胀惯性对于我国通货膨胀的影响同时存在,但是前瞻性预期对于我国通货膨胀的影响较大;其次,货币供应量变动对于我国通货膨胀率影响具有最重要的作用,而代表需求因素的产出缺口以及代表供给冲击的原油价格对于我国通货膨胀的影响很小;最后,人民币实际汇率升值对通货膨胀可以产生一定的抑制作用,但作用不大。     

International currency substitution and the income velocity of money

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the degree to which international currency substitution destabilizes domestic money demand. It also provides an explanation of some apparent discrepancies among previous empirical studies of currency substitution. This explanation hinges on the distinction between the elasticity of currency substitution and the cross-elasticity of money demand. A large (small) value of one elasticity does not imply a large (small) value of the other. A large cross-elasticity is required for currency substitution to destabilize domestic money demand. The empirical evidence presented here is consistent with the view that these cross-elasticities are typically small.     

Inside–outside money competition

We study how competition from privately supplied currency substitutes affects monetary equilibria. Whenever currency is inefficiently provided, inside money competition plays a disciplinary role by providing an upper bound on equilibrium inflation rates. Furthermore, if “inside monies” can be produced at a sufficiently low cost, outside money is driven out of circulation. Whenever a ‘benevolent’ government can commit to its fiscal policy, sequential monetary policy is efficient and inside money competition plays no role.     

SOME REFLECTIONS ON RECENT MONETARY TURMOIL IN EASTERN EUROPE

This article makes the case for the use of "currency boards" in dealing with the monetary problems of Russia and other developing economies. The concept of the currency board was developed originally by the British in the 19th century to allow their colonies to maintain their local currencies without having an autonomous money supply or central bank. Currency boards hold out the promise of price stability because the local government gives up all discretionary powers over the money supply and the exchange rate. As the author puts it, "The country's monetary affairs, internal and external, will be running on automatic pilot, not on manual control. For the Russian people, the great advantage of this automatic arrangement, of course, is that the Russian government can no longer finance itself by inflation—that is, by printing money."
A currency board, to be sure, is not a panacea. It cannot substitute for the massive restructuring of Russian financial and governmental institutions that is so clearly needed. But, as happened in Argentina, a currency board can make that task easier by restoring stability and confidence. The promise of exchange rate stability that a currency board offers is also a major inducement to the foreign capital that is critical to the growth of the Russian as well as most developing economies.