Theory and practice in transformation: The disowned futures of Integral extension

The strength of futures studies is its epistemological pluralism. Integral futures as defined by Slaughter and Riedy loses sight of this strength. Instead of an interpretive dialogue, the “Integral Extension” seeks to frame and define causal layered analysis (CLA) within its own terms. Its proponents do so by constructing their version of Integral as above—more evolved, higher, more… and CLA as lower. Integral, in Riedy and Slaughter's terms, appears to inhabit the totalizing linear modernist paradigm, not to mention the straightjacket of the masculinist discourse. Their strategy is the classic defining of the other within the terms of the person who seeks to define. Riedy's piece in particular makes a strange series of errors in that it: (1) confuses Vedanta with Tantra; (2) misreads subjectivity—arguing that subjectivity does not exist for the poststructural, instead of seeing how the self is contextualized with structure and genealogy (as in Foucault's work); (3) misses the entire work around inner CLA; (4) adopts the Orientalist discourse of constructing CLA as cultural (instead of recognizing that it seeks to move up and down layers of data, systems, worldviews and myths), and (5) is not grounded in the practice of conducting layered analysis with varied groups. This essay concludes by arguing that there is no need for this battle. We do not need to be either for or against Integral or CLA. We can live in multiple spaces, use different theories and methodologies, each having its purpose, each useful depending on the person, time and particular space we inhabit.     

Towards an Integral renewal of systems methodology for futures studies

This article considers the use of systems methodology in futures studies and foresight, in relation to Slaughter's call for Integral methodological renewal in futures studies. The diversified methodologies that have developed within the systems practice field over the past 25 years are examined for their potential to address concerns about the field's reduction of interior realities to epiphenomena of systemic processes, articulated by Habermas in the 1970s, and more recently by Wilber from the perspective of his Integral Methodological Pluralism. It is argued, though, that Integral methodology requires more than methodological pluralism: some understanding of the structures of consciousness within which methodologies are conceived and applied is needed. Drawing on the work of Dr. Susanne Cook-Greuter, capacity to understand “system” itself is explored, looking at the way that humans make sense of reality and the stages through which this sense-making develops. It is argued that systems methods and tools used with sufficient practitioner awareness of epistemological biases have an essential role to play in improving the quality of our futures perception and knowledge.     

An other view of integral futures: De/reconstructing the IF brand

This paper points to some limitations of the narrow version of integral futures (IF) as represented in the recent special issue of Futures (2008, vol. 40, issue 2). I also propose several ways that the IF brand could be refreshed through a broader and deeper approach to integral futures by way of a scholarly engagement with other kindred discourses. The main focus of this paper is to open out beyond the “myth-of-the-given” in relation to the notion of integral and in this way broaden and deepen possibilities for integral futures.     

Endowing cognitive mapping with computational properties for strategic analysis

A number of cognitive, causal mapping and simulation techniques exist for dealing with the growing importance of environmental uncertainty. After briefly commenting on some of the more salient extant approaches, this paper offers a new one for consideration by the scenario planning community. Comprehensive Situation Mapping (CSM) is a powerful analytical tool combined with a process for framing and debating strategic situations. The CSM approach combines the problem framing features of causal mapping with a dialectical inquiry process patterned after Churchman's. Like the better approaches to planning through cognitive mapping, it facilitates the “backward analysis” of the underlying strategic assumptions. Its novelty is that it also allows the “forward analysis” of a situation by computing the potential change scenarios. Initially developed for manual application, the principles of CSM were originally tested in appropriate case studies. The contribution of the present paper is to present its theory and point out that its future potential is even greater: in concluding we indicate that, by using recent distributed artificial intelligence (DAI) technology, a fully computerized and interactive prototype is now being set up for commercial applications.     

Beyond epistemological pluralism: Towards an integrated vision of the future

This paper is a response to Epistemological Pluralism in Futures Studies, featured as a special edition of Futures (42:2). Since that special edition was a response to Integral Futures, a previous special edition of Futures (40:2), this paper begins with a treatment of some of the critiques of IF, as well as the critiques of Ken Wilber and integral theory. I examine the validity of those critiques, focusing in particular on the accuracy of the “portraits” given of Ken Wilber and his contribution to integral theory. I also examine the claims of “epistemological pluralism” to determine whether it is a more appropriate framework for futures inquiry and practice. In this consideration, I treat epistemological pluralism (devoid of an “integrating” theory) as an expression of skeptical postmodernism. Finally, I conclude with a historical overview of integral theory.     

Nonlinear dynamics in discretionary accruals: An analysis of bank loan-loss provisions

Several studies have analyzed discretionary accruals to address earnings-smoothing behaviors in the banking industry. We argue that the characteristic link between accruals and earnings may be nonlinear, since both the incentives to manipulate income and the practical way to do so depend partially on the relative size of earnings. Given a sample of 15,268 US banks over the period 1996–2011, the main results in this paper suggest that, depending on the size of earnings, bank managers tend to engage in earnings-decreasing strategies when earnings are negative (“big-bath”), use earnings-increasing strategies when earnings are positive, and use provisions as a smoothing device when earnings are positive and substantial (“cookie-jar” accounting). This evidence, which cannot be explained by the earnings-smoothing hypothesis, is consistent with the compensation theory. Neglecting nonlinear patterns in the econometric modeling of these accruals may lead to misleading conclusions regarding the characteristic strategies used in earnings management.     

Short-horizon contrarian and momentum strategies in Asian markets: An integrated analysis

In this paper, we test the profitability of short-term contrarian and momentum strategies, which take into account the effects of trading activity, size/value characteristics, and asymmetric investor responses to news regarding stock markets in Japan, Taiwan, Korea, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore during 1990-2000. Except for the Taiwanese and Korean markets, “winner” (“loser”) portfolios experience subsequent reversal (momentum) of stock prices. Among actively traded stocks, significant contrarian profits can be obtained from only “winner” portfolios in Japan, while sizeable momentum profits from “loser portfolios” in both Japan and Hong Kong.     

Regulatory networks for accounting and auditing standards: A social network analysis of Canadian and international standard-setting

Rose and Miller [Rose, N., & Miller, P. (1992). Political power beyond the state: Problematics of government. British Journal of Sociology, 43(2), 173–205] note that governmentality is exercised through “centers of calculation” embedded in “networks of rule;” we focus on the “networks of rule” and use social network analysis to document the linked organizations, both domestic and international, that affect the creation of accounting and auditing standards in Canada. The network is defined as the set of regulatory bodies and other organizations that have the right to appoint (or approve the appointment of) members of another organization’s standard-setting body. The network consists of 61 organizations, sharing 131 interlocks. These organizations are clustered into four groups centered on, respectively, the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants, the Canadian Securities Administrators, International Federation of Accountants and the IOSCO/World Bank. The analysis identifies the boundaries of these clusters and the key organizations that maintain the cohesion of the network. The conclusion identifies research opportunities opened by this perspective on accounting and auditing regulation.     

SOCIAL ANALYSES OF ACCOUNTING INSTITUTIONS: ECONOMIC VALUE,ACCOUNTING REPRESENTATION AND THE CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The paper is a commentary on Bryer's article “A Marxist Critique of the FASB's Conceptual Framework”; the commentary is divided into three main sections. The first section begins by addressing the changing relationships between accounting and economics and, more specifically, the ideas of economic value and accounting representation (often called “representational faithfulness”, see Bryer, p. 582) that underlie Bryer's concerns with the FASB project. The second section considers the role of the FASB conceptual framework project in order to address the different ways that the “impact” of the FASB's Conceptual Framework project upon accounting practices can be considered. Several of the existing studies of this project that consider its purpose in social and political terms are reviewed. This is not to suggest that the FASB's work has had @9pno@2p effects, but rather that its consequences might be thought of in institutional and political terms. In the final section some of the specifics of Bryer's Marxist analysis are addressed. In particular the relationship between Marxian analysis and accounting change is considered.     

The social constitution of regulation: The endogenization of insider trading laws

Accounting research, whether founded in an economics or sociological paradigm, has generally treated regulation as an exogenous part of the environment that shapes the behavior of those who operate within it. Recently, joining those who have advanced the regulator capture hypothesis, the exogenous presumption of the regulatory framework has been challenged by institutional theorists within the sociology literature, and it has been reasoned that those regulated seek to influence the regulations applied to them to gain advantage. In effect, the actions of those regulated “endogenize” the regulations that gird them. Employing this emerging strand of institutional theory research, we probe efforts to “endogenize” the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) regulation of insider trading. More specifically, applying both latent and manifest content analyses, we examine archival material relating to the development of insider trading regulations, focusing in particular on the social negotiation of the SEC’s Rule 10b5-1, which prohibits company officers from trading in their company’s stock while in “knowing possession” of material, non-public information. Our results suggest that those regulated by 10b5-1 effectively influenced this regulation (viz., by way of successfully advocating for an affirmative defense provided for so-called “planned trades”). Our analysis suggests that endogenization is an on-going, recursive process marked by moves and counter-moves among contending factions. Implications are explored.     

Accounting for organizational performance: The construction of the customer in the privatized water industry

The concept of the customer exercising market power to obtain the desired combination of attributes in terms of price and quality of the product to be purchased has been integral to the Conservative Government's justification of privatization. However the practical import of giving effect to customer sovereignty was problematic if it was not accompanied by an increase in competition and choice for customers. This is particularly true of the recently privatized Water industry, where the monopoly character of the industry has remained unaltered. To give effect to its claims that customers would benefit, and to prevent overcharging and to protect standards of service, the Government had to introduce a new regulatory system operated by the Office of Water Services (Ofwat). In pursuing these objectives the Director General of Ofwat has stated that his aim is to secure for the customer a place that he/she would have were the companies operating in a competitive market. This paper, drawing on Miller and Rose's analysis of Governing economic life, examines the attempts that have been made to give effect to this “place for customers”. In doing so much of the analysis focuses on exploring how notions of “the customer”, and “customer service”, have been constructed through new forms of accounting and accountability, and how this new accounting for customer service has enabled the concept of “the customer” to be made operational within the newly privatized Water plcs, even though their monopoly status has remained unaltered. Central to this has been Ofwat's determination of performance indicators on levels of service to customers, its measurement of company performance against these indicators, and assessments based on these measures of companies' success in “serving customers”. The paper seeks to demonstrate how these new accounts of organizational performance required of the Water plcs by Ofwat have only been made possible by rendering “customer service” a calculable and comparable entity. The paper also looks at some of the ways in which this accounting for customer service has been incorporated into other accounts of managerial and organizational performance.     

Calendar anomaly in the Greek stock market: Stochastic dominance analysis

Using stochastic dominance (SD) analysis, this paper examines calendar anomalies in the Athens Stock Exchange (ASE), an emerging market thrust into a path of rapid transition by the economic integration of Greece with the European Union. SD offers two essential analytical attributes: It requires no assumptions regarding the normality of return distributions, and it imposes few restrictions on investors' risk-return tradeoff preference. Between 1985 and 2004, we find temporal predictability of returns in the ASE — a strong “day” effect and rather weak “week” and “January” effects. Our findings on the week and January effects are far less robust as compared to those reported in earlier studies based on parametric tests.     

Boundary work: Costing and caring in the social services

“Where does it stop on costs?”—this paper offers some responses to this question on the appropriate boundaries for costing expertise. The question was posed by a contracts officer within a social services department. The context for the question was an empirical research study in which front line welfare professionals were asked to comment, first, on costing information which could, possibly, assist in making “value for money” assessments and, second, on the contracting regime within which such costing information assumes a potentially highlighted significance. At the first stage of the study welfare professionals were found to be engaged in boundary-work to prevent the encroachment of costs on care activities. “Costing” and “caring” were being managed as “disengaged domains” through the boundary work of obfuscation, “reality-defining” and marginalization. Consequent upon the initial study the social services departments were re-visited two years later. By this time it was apparent that boundary-work had allowed some engagement between costing and caring. The paper argues that processes of alignment between costing and caring and the reconstitution of organizational tasks (including the creation of care “managers”) have allowed social work professionals to accept some costing work—work which had previously been defined as “the other”. The major themes of this paper are: the exploration of the responses of operational social services personnel to their new financial roles, and the interpretation of change in the social services context through the ideas of boundary-work. These themes are developed through a consideration of the ambiguous tasks of welfare-professionals and the consequent indeterminacy of resourcing decisions. The paper concludes that the limits of applicability of costing are yet to be set in the domain of the social services.     

Climate change, human genetics, and post-normality in the UK

Virtually intractable matters characterized by uncertainty over consequences, diverse and multiple engaged interests, conflicting knowledge claims, and high stakes, call for post-normal policy responses. This paper explores how two such responses have been implemented in the UK through the management of specific aspects of anthropogenic climate change and human genetics, which we argue can be described as “wicked” or post-normal issues. To address these, approaches require that a broader range of epistemic positions and worldviews be recognized as valid in the policy development process. We suggest that the concept of boundary organisations is well suited to examine some of the institutions that have been set up in the UK to deal with the two post-normal issues we consider here. This paper explores the extent to which the UK Climate Impacts Programme and the Human Genetics Commission respond to a post-normal policy approach and their achievements in overcoming epistemological boundaries and effecting integrated management responses. We conclude by considering the insights such an analysis offers into operationalising post-normal policy approaches. As intermediaries and facilitators, we suggest the two organisations can be considered forerunners in applying a post-normal approach to climate change adaptation and human genetics, respectively.     

Capital market imperfections and the theory of optimum currency areas

This paper studies how within- and cross-country capital market imperfections affect the welfare effects of forming a currency union. The analysis considers a bank-only world where intermediaries compete in Cournot fashion and monitoring and state verification are costly. The first part determines the credit market equilibrium and the optimal number of banks, prior to joining the union. The second part discusses the benefits from joining a currency union. A competition effect is identified and related to the added monitoring costs that banks may incur when operating outside their home country, through an argument akin to the Brander-Krugman “reciprocal dumping” model of bilateral trade. However, in our framework, whether joining a union raises welfare of the home country is ambiguous; it depends on the relative strength of “investment creation” and “intermediation diversion” effects.     

Tone at the top: CEO environmental rhetoric and environmental performance

In this study we attempted to ascertain the environmental leadership and commitment of the CEO as evidence of “tone at the top” in the belief that this would lead to enhanced environmental performance. We measure “tone at the top” by the environmental disclosure score which is collected from a content analysis of CEO letters to shareholders. We adopt the two environmental performance measures: (1) Environmental Impact Score (EIS) from Newsweek Green Ranking and (2) Modeled Hazard Population Results (MHPR) based on Risk-Screening Environmental Indicator (RSEI) models built by EPA. The results indicate that the environmental disclosure score from the CEO letter is inversely correlated with environmental performance. The overall findings support legitimacy theory in that CEOs essentially “spin” firms' environmental performance so it looks better than it actually is.     

In- and out-of-sample specification analysis of spot rate models: Further evidence for the period 1982–2008

We review and construct consistent in-sample specification and out-of-sample model selection tests on conditional distributions and predictive densities associated with continuous multifactor (possibly with jumps) and (non)linear discrete models of the short term interest rate. The results of our empirical analysis are used to carry out a “horse-race” comparing discrete and continuous models across multiple sample periods, forecast horizons, and evaluation intervals. Our evaluation involves comparing models during two distinct historical periods, as well as across our entire weekly sample of Eurodollar deposit rates from 1982 to 2008. Interestingly, when our entire sample of data is used to estimate competing models, the “best” performer in terms of distributional “fit” as well as predictive density accuracy, both in-sample and out-of-sample, is the three factor Chen (Chen, 1996) model examined by Andersen, Benzoni and Lund (2004). Just as interestingly, a logistic type discrete smooth transition autoregression (STAR) model is preferred to the “best” continuous model (i.e. the one factor Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR: 1985) model) when comparing predictive accuracy for the “Stable 1990s” period that we examine. Moreover, an analogous result holds for the “Post 1990s” period that we examine, where the STAR model is preferred to a two factor stochastic mean model. Thus, when the STAR model is parameterized using only data corresponding to a particular sub-sample, it outperforms the “best” continuous alternative during that period. However, when models are estimated using the entire dataset, the continuous CHEN model is preferred, regardless of the variety of model specification (selection) test that is carried out. Given that it is very difficult to ascertain the particular future regime that will ensue when constructing ex ante predictions, thus, the CHEN model is our overall “winning” model, regardless of sample period.     

The wandering weekday effect in major stock markets

This paper reports a wandering weekday effect: the pattern of day seasonality in stock market returns is not fixed, as assumed in the Monday or weekend effects, but changes over time. Analysing daily closing prices in eleven major stock markets during 1993–2007, our results show that the wandering weekday is not conditional on average returns in the previous week (the “twist” in the Monday effect). Nor does it diminish through the period of analysis. The results have important implications for market efficiency, and help to reconcile mixed findings in previous studies, including the reported disappearance of the weekday effect in recent years.     

An Integral extension of causal layered analysis

Causal layered analysis (CLA) is a futures method developed by Sohail Inayatullah and since applied by numerous futurists across multiple content areas. The central assumption of CLA is that there are different levels of reality and ways of knowing; beneath the popular conceptions of an issue (the litany) and more academic analysis of systemic causes are deep worldview commitments, discourses, myths and metaphors. This layered understanding of reality initially seems to resonate with ideas from Ken Wilber's Integral Theory, which identifies developmental levels across behavioural, social, psychological and cultural quadrants. On closer inspection, there are some important theoretical and conceptual differences between CLA and Integral Theory; from an Integral perspective, the layers in CLA confuse quadrants, developmental levels and developmental lines. In this paper, I explore these differences in search of a resolution that will allow the fruitful application of CLA within an Integral Futures framework. I find that CLA, as currently conceived, is not an Integral method in its own right. However, CLA has great value for Integral Futures work as a way of drawing attention to the neglected cultural dimension of futures. Further, with some modifications and extensions, a more Integral application of CLA seems possible.