信贷资产质量前瞻性预测与压力测试——基于ARMA模型和VAR模型的研究

本文利用ARMA模型和VAR模型,对重要宏观经济指标、商业银行信贷资产的规模与质量进行预测分析,对商业银行房地产开发贷款增速和质量进行压力测试,并对指标间的波动特性及变化规律进行量化.研究结果表明,宏观经济波动对商业银行信贷资产的增长和质量稳定均有显著影响.商业银行应加强基础数据的整理、储备,将土地、物业作为抵质押物的...     

对住房抵押贷款证券化实施的思考

一、现行房地产市场对推行住房抵押贷款证券化的障碍 住房抵押贷款达到一定规模时必将会使我国金融机构"短存长贷"的矛盾和资金短缺问题凸现出来,此时住房抵押贷款证券化就会成为各商业银行降低经营风险的必然选择.尽管如此,要在房地产市场推行住房抵押贷款证券化将会面临很多的障碍.     

组合风险管理视角下信贷结构的优化

本文通过构建组合管理模型,对信贷资产组合结构进行实证研究,计算各行业的组合损失分布和经济资本。研究表明,信贷资产组合损失呈现对数状态分布;各行业贷款的经济资本结构和贷款规模结构、收益结构之间存在巨大的差异。商业银行应该基于贷款的经济资本、贷款规模和收益等要素来制定信贷结构优化调整策略;商业银行在开展信贷结构调整的过程中,不仅要考虑各个行业的回报率和资产规模,还应该从风险调整收益角度进行"投入—产出"的对比分析,应按照风险收益相匹配的原则,增加风险调整收益较高的"高效能"领域信贷资产的规模水平。     

商业银行从事影子银行业务的影响因素与经济后果--基于影子银行体系资金融出方的实证研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文基于2006-2012年中国商业银行同业业务买入返售金融资产的数据,从影子银行体系资金融出方的角度,分析了商业银行从事影子银行业务的影响因素与经济后果。本文发现,四大国有商业银行、业绩好的银行、资产规模小的银行、贷款比率和存款比率高的银行以及位于地区金融发展水平高的省份的银行,其买入返售金融资产业务规模更小,说明银行业绩压力以及外部金融发展水平是影响商业银行开展同业业务的重要因素。而且,商业银行从事买入返售金融资产业务的规模越大,其潜在经营风险越高,具体表现为买入返售业务的低收益率降低了商业银行的总资产收益率,但是这种负效应在存贷比比率高的银行并不显著,说明商业银行向影子银行体系融出资金的一个重要动机就是规避贷款能力受监管限制而对业绩造成的负面影响。     

对加强房地产信贷业务风险防范的建议

目前,房地产贷款已经成为商业银行贷款的主要投向之一。如何规避和防范经营风险,促进房地产信贷业务健康发展是商业银行值得关注的问题。     

试论房价波动对商业银行资产的影响

基于次贷危机的启示,本文构建了在不同的金融发展程度下房地产价格波动对商业银行资产影响的理论模型,并在此基础上对中国的现状进行分析,指出当前对中国的影响主要集中于商业银行基于负债业务发放的贷款领域。进一步地,利用向量自回归模型(VAR)及冲击响应函数对中国房地产价格波动对商业银行贷款的影响进行了实证检验。研究表明:金融创新改变了房地产价格波动对商业银行资产的影响模式;中国房价波动对商业银行资产的影响主要集中在源于银行负债发放的贷款领域,但总体影响有限;中国应加快发展银行资产证券化业务,谨慎发展信用衍生产品。     

房地产资产证券化的制约与发展

目前我国金融机构储蓄存款绝大部分都是短期存款,而房地产抵押贷款中的个人住房按揭贷款的期限一般为长期贷款,如果商业银行扩大信贷规模,必然引起自身的流动性风险等一系列问题,而房地产的资产证券化便是分散风险的一种切实可行的方法.但是我国现有的商业体制和住房体制改革,对房地产资产证券化的开展存在着一定的制约和障碍,因此它的发展任重而道远.     

金融发展规模、门槛效应与房地产库存 ——基于门槛面板模型的实证检验

基于2004-2017年我国金融发展规模和房地产库存的省际面板数据,构建基准面板模型和门槛面板模型,考量金融发展规模对房地产库存的影响.结果表明:金融机构存款对房地产库存的影响具有区域差异性,东部地区和西部地区表现出抑制作用,全国和中部地区表现出促进作用,中部地区和西部地区显著.金融机构贷款对房地产库存具有显著的促进作用.股票市价总值对房地产库存的影响存在显著的门槛效应,随着人均GDP跨过门槛值,股票市价总值对房地产库存的影响由抑制作用转化成促进作用.此外,上市公司数量对房地产库存的影响在全国、中部地区表现出促进作用,且中部地区显著.市场化指数在基准面板模型中表现出抑制作用且不显著,但在门槛面板模型中表现出显著的促进作用.经济发展水平对房地产库存表现出促进作用,但不显著.     

房地产贷款占比对商业银行稳定性影响的理论推导

本文主要是通过房地产贷款占比对商业银行破产概率的分析,来研究房地产贷款占比对商业银行稳定性的影响。首先,本文分析了商业银行的房地产贷款占比与其稳定性之间的理论基础。在商业银行破产概率模型(即商业银行破产的条件是其净资产小于零)基础之上,通过房地产贷款占比与商业银行净资产收益之间的关系,分析房地产贷款占比对商业银行破产概率的影响。然后,本文又通过分析房地产贷款占比与商业银行破产概率之间的关系,而得到房地产贷款占比影响商业银行稳定性的理论假说。最后,经过一些列理论分析得出的结论是,商业银行的房地产贷款占比与其破产概率之间存在U形函数关系,并且又因为商业银行稳定性与其破产概率之间呈负相关关系,所以本文提出商业银行的房地产贷款占比与其稳定性经营之间存在倒U形函数关系的理论假说。     

贷款损失准备计提与商业银行经营风险相关性研究 ——基于经理自主权视角

贷款损失准备的计提作为商业银行调节会计利润的手段,是否对商业银行经营风险有影响,是一个值得探讨的问题。基于我国上市商业银行2007-2017年的数据为研究样本进行实证分析,研究结果表明：贷款损失准备对商业银行经营风险有正向信号传递作用。其中,基于经理自主权计提的自由裁量部分能缓释经营风险,非自由裁量部分对经营风险产生加速放大效应,从而证明了自由裁量贷款损失准备能增强银行风险承担能力,为商业银行经理人员和监管者合理规范计提准备金提供新思路。     

我国商业银行宏观压力测试研究——基于四类银行的SUR模型

本文以不良贷款率作为评估银行主要风险的指标,建立SUR模型对我国国有商业银行、股份制银行,城市商业银行和农村商业银行四类银行进行了宏观压力测试。通过构建房价下跌和物价上涨的极端情景,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法得到宏观经济因素冲击下四类银行的贷款损失分布,结果表明在设定的压力情景下,四类银行的贷款损失率都有不同程度的上升,国有商业银行的稳健性最好,而城市商业银行表现相对较差。     

论我国商业银行个人住房贷款的风险防范

2010年4月中央政府为遏制房价过快上涨陆续出台了多项严厉的调控政策,随着房地产市场不确定性逐步增加,商业银行原本安全性较高的个人住房贷款的风险也在逐渐加大.本文在此背景下分析了近年来我国商业银行个人住房贷款的发展情况、普遍存在的风险类型,并在此基础上对商业银行个人住房贷款的风险防范提出了相关对策.     

Are real estate specializing depositories viable? Evidence from commercial banks

This study investigates whether depository institutions that concentrate on real estate lending are economically viable by examining the behavior of a sample of commercial banks that chose over the last decade to specialize in real estate lending. The results show that over the 1978–1988 period, the average real estate specializing bank earnings performance was on par with regular commercial banks, and those that were in the business for a longer period of time had higher returns with less risk than substantially more diversified commercial banks. Real estate banks has relatively lower loan losses and relatively higher proportions of lower risk, one- to four-family mortgage loans than regular commercial banks. Finally, it appears that real estate banks exhibited substantial flexibility in their ability to adjust their real estate loan holdings.     

Assessing targeted macroprudential financial regulation: The case of the 2006 commercial real estate guidance for banks

In January 2006, federal regulators issued guidance requiring banks with specific high concentrations of commercial real estate (CRE) loans to tighten managerial controls. This paper shows that banks with concentrations in excess of the thresholds set in the guidance subsequently experienced slower growth in their CRE portfolios than can be explained by changes in bank or economic conditions. Moreover, banks above the CRE thresholds tended to have slower commercial and industrial loan growth but faster household loan growth following issuance of the guidance. The results highlight the potentially broad influence that portfolio-based macroprudential regulation might have on bank behavior.     

The sensitivity of bank stock returns to real estate

According to the Federal Reserve Board, banking firms have recently been shifting significantly larger portions of their loan portfolios into real estate. This increase in real estate lending has caused concern about the continuing economic health of banks on the part of state and federal regulators, since changes in real estate returns, evidenced by changes in property value, can potentially have a significant impact on bank default risk and profit-ability. However, concerned parties do not seem to have explicitly considered the relationship between mortgage default risk and the specific characteristics of real estate investments.This study examines the sensitivities of stock returns for different bank groups, based on the percentage of total loans in real estate and the percentage of loans in five different mortgage categories (construction and development loans, farmland loans, one- to four-family residential loans, multifamily residential loans, and nonresidential and nonfarm loans), to changes in real estate market returns. This is done by developing and using a three-index model.The results of this study indicate that bank stocks, overall, are very sensitive to changes in real estae returns. Banks, with a larger portion of their total loans invested in all types of real estate loans, except farmland loans, are most sensitive to changes in real estate returns.     

Déjà Vu All Over Again: The Causes of U.S. Commercial Bank Failures This Time Around

In this study, we analyze why commercial banks failed during the recent financial crisis. We find that traditional proxies for the CAMELS components, as well as measures of commercial real estate investments, do an excellent job in explaining the failures of banks that were closed during 2009, just as they did in the previous banking crisis of 1985–1992. Surprisingly, we do not find that residential mortgage-backed securities played a significant role in determining which banks failed and which banks survived. Our results offer support for the CAMELS approach to judging the safety and soundness of commercial banks, but call, into serious question the current system of regulatory risk weights and concentration limits on commercial real estate loans.     

资本计量方法改革、商业银行风险偏好与信贷配置

为提高银行业风险管理水平与信贷配置效率,监管部门于2014年开展了资本管理高级方法的试点工作。本文基于上市银行2010至2016年的微观数据,与银监会公布的行业信贷风险进行匹配,采用双重差分和三重差分法,实证分析前述改革如何影响试点银行的风险偏好和信贷调配。研究发现,在资本管理高级方法实施后:(1)试点银行显著降低了风险加权资产的规模;(2)试点银行风险偏好的变化存在非线性的特征,在调减高风险行业贷款的同时,并未显著增加最安全行业的贷款,而是增加了风险略高行业的贷款,体现出试点银行对风险与收益的权衡;(3)进一步将行业划分为“虚”与“实”,研究发现试点银行减少了房地产业(“虚”)、制造业(“实”)和建筑业(“实”)贷款,显著增加了金融业(“虚”)贷款。本文研究不仅丰富了资本监管方面的文献,也对金融支持供给侧结构性改革具有启示意义。     

Ability of accounting and audit quality variables to predict bank failure during the financial crisis

We examine the ability of selected accounting and audit quality variables measured in a period prior to the financial crisis (i.e., the four quarters of 2006), to predict banks that subsequently failed during the financial crisis. We employ two sets of samples from the US: a troubled banks sample that includes banks that failed in or after 2007 as well as banks classified as being troubled based on profitability, loan quality, and balance sheet position in 2007, and a full sample that includes all banks with available required data. Using the troubled banks sample, we identify six reliable predictors of bank failure: auditor type, auditor industry specialization, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, growth in loans, and loan mix. For the larger full sample of banks, we identify the following ten predictors of bank failure: auditor type, Tier 1 capital ratio, proportion of securitized loans, nonperforming loans, loan loss provisions, growth in commercial loans, growth in real estate loans, growth in overall loans, loan mix, and whether the bank is a public bank.     

Political Connections and Corporate Borrowing: an Analysis on the Listed Real Estate Firms in China

This paper investigates the relationship between political connections and corporate borrowing behaviour using the listed real estate development firms in China from 2001 to 2014. Evidence from China is of particular importance due to China being the world’s largest emerging and transition economy. We find that the benefit of political connections is manifested in firms obtaining loans from state-controlled banks in the first instance, but that political influence diminishes over subsequent loan extensions. The performance based requirement prevents banks providing systemic favourable treatment to the connected real estate firms, especially after the Chinese banking system reform in 2006. The results provide fresh insight on the risks and benefits of political connections in the Chinese real estate market as it transitions from a centrally planned to a market based economy under on-going market oriented banking and political reforms.     

对产业集群的信贷风险分析与控制

本文通过对产业集群潜在风险及案例分析,剖析银行对产业集群贷款的风险特征与分析方法,指引商业银行把握对产业集群的贷款政策,探究规避风险的措施。文章认为,如果银行对产业集群的风险状况不能很好把握,盲目投放贷款,无异于高风险的聚集。因此,商业银行应从把握贷款规模,限制授信总量;根据产业集群生命周期把握贷款投放期限,有效进行结构调整;严密监控,严防地区性金融风险等方面规避和防范这类风险。