人民币对外币的“货币反替代”问题探讨

现阶段存在的人民币升值趋势下居民抛售外币持有本币这一"货币反替代"问题,已对我国的货币政策和开放经济产生了消极影响。影响的因素主要是国民收入水平、国际收支状况、人民币汇率稳定程度、国内外的短期利率水平及其差异、国内通货膨胀水平、人民币可兑换程度与外汇冲销机制的发挥。为此,要因势利导,加快推进人民币可兑换的步伐;改革和完善银行结售汇制度;增强汇率制度的灵活性;实施多元化储备政策,减少经常项目顺差;变招商引资战略为招商选资战略,限制投机性资本流入。     

Why European Banks Are Undercapitalized and What Should Be Done About It

Major European banks are significantly undercapitalized as compared to large American banks, and, more importantly, as compared to the capital levels they would need to survive another severe financial crisis. Bank capital shortfalls in Italy, Spain, Germany, France and the United Kingdom, in particular, are largely the consequence of European bank regulations that: (1) apply static risk weights to assets like mortgages and sovereign debt; (2) fail to require an overall market‐based capital ratio that is high enough to enable banks to survive a severe financial crisis; (3) fail to get banks to promptly write down their impaired assets to market value; (4) subject banks to weak stress tests that can create a false impression of capital adequacy; and (5) fail to compel banks to retain sufficient earnings and to raise sufficient capital externally to eliminate capital shortfalls promptly, all apparently out of fear that being tougher might cause investors and customers to lose confidence in the banks. This article summarizes important recent independent bank stress testing that has quantified the capital shortfalls in European banks. The recent highly publicized regulatory interventions to resolve failing European banks were inevitable due to these shortfalls. The authors recommend steps European bank regulators should take to address the problem and to eliminate the risk of serious capital shortfalls. In the absence of such steps, bank depositors, customers, and security holders should be prepared to expect further unwelcome surprises as the risks inherent in allowing undercapitalized banks to operate will continue to materialize in more bank failures.     

Disaster relief, inc

When disaster strikes, many corporations respond generously. After the 2004 tsunami, for instance, U.S. firms alone contributed more than half a billion dollars in cash and in-kind donations. But a host of reactive efforts don't produce the best results-and may even get in the way. To make the most of their humanitarian efforts, companies need to address two fundamental questions: What kind of aid do we want to contribute--philanthropic (money and in-kind donations) or integrative (backroom, operational assistance)? And how do we want to contribute it--by working one-on-one with a single agency or by joining a consortium? The permutations of those two decisions lead to four different approaches, each with its own strengths and challenges. Single-company philanthropic partnerships work well when there's a good match between what a company wants to contribute and what an agency needs, as with Coca-Cola's donations of water to the Red Cross. More diffuse, but also potentially more effective, are the benefits of joining a multicompany philanthropic partnership, which enables the resources of many firms to be matched to the missions of many agencies. More difficult to establish but more fundamental in its impact is a single-company integrative partnership, in which a corporation works to improve the way an aid agency operates, as the logistics giant TNT has done to help the distribution efforts of the World Food Programme. And most difficult to implement--but potentially most effective-is a multicompany integrative partnership, which brings to bear the collective best practices of many companies to improve the response capabilities of multiple agencies. It's easy to see why the image of a relief worker carrying a sack of grain delivers an emotional wallop, but the behind-the-scenes work of process enhancement is just as crucial to humanitarian efforts. The sooner executives realize this, the better positioned the world will be to respond to global disasters.     

Corporate debt and financial balance sheet adjustment: a comparison of the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany

The level of UK corporate debt directly affects financial stability in the United Kingdom because a significant amount of the exposure of the UK financial system is to UK corporates. Our paper provides a comparison of the determinants of corporate debt in the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Germany. The comparison serves to benchmark our findings about the determinants of UK corporate debt. In addition, the UK financial sector is significantly exposed to the corporate sectors in the United States, Germany and France. The model assesses the contribution of investment, acquisitions, cash flows and market-to-book values to the determination of debt, and also the tendency of debt to revert to its optimum level. Debt was found to be positively related to the financing needs of the firm, and the optimum level of debt to be negatively related to the market-to-book ratio. This casts some light on the procyclicality of debt.     

The passive-aggressive organization

Passive-aggressive organizations are friendly places to work: People are congenial, conflict is rare, and consensus is easy to reach. But, at the end of the day, even the best proposals fail to gain traction, and a company can go nowhere so imperturbably that it's easy to pretend everything is fine. Such companies are not necessarily saddled with mulishly passive-aggressive employees. Rather, they are filled with mostly well-intentioned people who are the victirms of flawed processes and policies. Commonly, a growing company's halfhearted or poorly thought-out attempts to decentralize give rise to multiple layers of managers, whose authority for making decisions becomes increasingly unclear. Some managers, as a result, hang back, while others won't own up to the calls they've made, inviting colleagues to second-guess or overturn the decisions. In such organizations, information does not circulate freely, and that makes it difficult for workers to understand the impact of their actions on company performance and for managers to correctly appraise employees' value to the organization. A failure to accurately match incentives to performance stifles initiative, and people do just enough to get by. Breaking free from this pattern is hard; a long history of seeing corporate initiatives ignored and then fade away tends to make people cynical. Often it's best to bring in an outsider to signal that this time things will be different. He or she will need to address every obstacle all at once: clarify decision rights; see to it that decisions stick; and reward people for sharing information and adding value, not for successfully negotiating corporate politics. If those steps are not taken, it's only a matter of time before the diseased elements of a passive-aggressive organization overwhelm the remaining healthy ones and drive the company into financial distress.     

注册体制下商标使用意图要件检视

商标使用意图要件是使用体制国家转向注册体制的关键,对在注册体制下维持和强调发挥商标作用所必需的使用义务以及对相对具体规则进行有效补充等方面具有不可替代性。据此,我国为规制频发的恶意注册和囤积行为,在商标法中增加了使用意图要件的规定,禁止缺乏使用意图的商标注册,并允许就此提出异议和申请无效宣告。然而,本次修改为保证商标法体系的稳定性而过于简略,很容易出现使用意图要件地位不明、意图认定困难、规则适用冲突等问题。对此,有必要在明确商标法注册体制下宣示性与规则性相结合条款与兜底性绝对无效理由条款的法律地位的基础上,吸收国内外实践和立法经验,细化完善意图声明审查、兜底性适用顺位、实际使用豁免无效以及由实际使用衔接注册审查与无效宣告等具体规则,从而增强我国使用意图要件的可操作性并使其发挥应有作用。     

THE ATTITUDES OF ACCOUNTING STUDENTS TO WORKING WITH COMPUTERS: A PRELIMINARY STUDY

A sample of final-year accounting students, 94 from an Australian university and 61 from an Australian CAE, completed a special scale to determine their attitudes to working with computers, as well as items to assess a variety of hypothesized correlates of such attitudes including age, sex, school performance, tertiary accounting performance, usage of computers, access to a computer at home, preference for working with machines rather than people, and self-confidence. The amount of time students spent with computers was significantly related to students' attitudes toward working with computers (being directly related to positive attitudes and inversely related to negative attitudes). The relationships between the other correlates and attitudes to working with computers were all nonsignificant. The majority of students held very favourable attitudes to working with computers.     

金融支持三江平原农业产业化经营模式创新的路径探析

三江平原是我国重要的商品粮基地,在确保国家粮食安全等方面发挥着重要的作用。2012年7月20日,全国现代农业建设现场交流会在三江平原腹地佳木斯市召开,国务院副总理回良玉、农业部部长韩长斌出席会议并作了重要讲话。随着近年来传统农业向现代农业转变的大趋势,使得现代农业发展越来越受到各方面的重视。现代化农业的发展离不开农业产业化的支持,农业产业化可以从整体上推进传统农业向现代农业的转变,是加速农业现代化的有效途径。本文以地处三江平原腹地的佳木斯市为例,对农业产业化经营模式以及发展中存在的问题进行探讨,并对金融如何支持农业产业化经营进行分析,以更好地促进三江平原农业产业化的发展。     

A novel approach in risk evaluation for ship-to-ship (STS) transfer of cargo using process failure mode and effects analysis (PFMEA)

The ship-to-ship transfer (STS) of oil and oil products plays currently an important role on a worldwide scale. Usually, it refers to the transfer of cargo between seagoing ships positioned alongside each other. Although the procedure of STS transfer has become a day-to-day practice, it remains a difficult operation, which deserves special consideration. To reduce the adverse effect of a potential accident on humans as well as on the environment, a risk assessment is necessary to be done to evaluate the hazards that derive from such a difficult procedure. To this end, the process failure mode and effect analysis (PFMEA), which is under the umbrella of the traditional failure mode and effect analysis, is properly modified and applied to assess the hazards of a typical STS transfer procedure. PFMEA is based on the risk priority number with regard to each risk related to the procedure of interest by multiplying the numerical values of the severity, occurrence and detection indices. Although PFMEA is currently applied mainly to manufacturing processes, the aim of the paper was to implement this methodology to STS transfer of petroleum products. According to the study of PFMEA implementation, the petroleum cargo is the product similar to the product in a manufacturing procedure; hence, the different phases of the STS procedure are similar to the production line of the manufactured product. Moreover, proposals to eliminate the disadvantages of the implementation of PFMEA by a qualitative manner (using linguistic terms) are proposed. The objective target of this effort is to assess and evaluate the effectiveness of implementing the PFMEA in a maritime activity and therefore to address the advantages and disadvantages of such an approach.     

试述债转股动作中的问题与政策建议

文章指出债转股运作中存在着道德风险，企业对股权回购压力大把握小，分离企业办社会职能和安置富余人员困难大，债转股不能解决企业和银行的所有问题，针对所存在的问题提出了明确主体目标，完善资产管理公司的职能建立有效的激励约束机制，积极拓宽股权退出通道及大力发展中介机构并加强信息披露等政策建议。     

我国农村剩余劳动力转移途径及对策选择

我国农村剩余劳动力转移是解决三农问题的重中之重.现行土地制度、户籍管理制度、城市化进程以及农村剩余劳动力素质是制约农村剩余劳动力转移的主要因素.农村剩余劳动力在第一产业内部的转移和劳动力向二、三产业的转移,是我国农村劳动力转移的基本途径.坚持走农业产业化道路、推进乡镇企业二次创业、完善农村金融体系、推进城市化进程、建立和完善社会保障体系等,是推动农村劳动力转移的必然选择.     

Storm surge disaster risk management: the Xynthia case study in France

In recent years, a series of catastrophic storm surges have occurred in Europe. The large number of fatalities and high material damage are mainly due to an increase in vulnerability and exposure to coastal flooding of hit regions. It is, therefore, necessary to intensify research activities in order to better understand this kind of disasters, to reduce their impacts and to reinforce risk management. This study describes the consequences of Xynthia windstorm that hit France in 2010: strong wind gusts, associated to high-coefficient tides and very low pressure, caused a phenomenon of storm surge in the Atlantic coastal area of France. Sea walls, lacking maintenance and originally built to defend agricultural land, were not able to protect houses. Fourty-seven people were killed, most of them from drowning, and direct losses amounted to more than 2.5?billion Euros. Around 10,000 people were forced to evacuate after the inundation of their properties. Uncontrolled urbanization was involved in the increase of stakes, as demonstrated by the fact that all the 29 victims in the city of la Faute-sur-Mer were living in houses built after 1980. The paper describes the event considering the aspect of increased vulnerability in the affected area, the lack of preparedness that exacerbated the final damage, the emergency response phases and the adaptation strategies adopted by the French Government after the disaster. We conclude that an attentive governance should include a balanced approach to risk protection, to reduce vulnerability and exposure.     

EDUCATION VOUCHERS IN PRINCIPLE AND PRACTICE: A SURVEY

An education voucher system exists when governments make paymentsto families that enable their children to enter public or privateschools of their choice. The tax-funded payments can be madedirectly to parents or indirectly to the selected schools; theirpurpose is to increase parental choice, to promote school competition,and to allow low-income families access to private schools.Some opponents predict that vouchers will destroy the publicsystem, aggravate poverty, and foster segregation. Others fearthat voucher-receiving independent schools will be regulatedout of recognition. The main purpose of this article is to examine the recent emergenceof voucher systems as an interesting phenomenon in its own right.The evidence summarized relates to voucher systems operatingin twenty countries, provinces, and states. The typical "funds-follow-the-child"voucher system, in which governments subsidize "schools of choice"in strict proportion to enrollment, appears to be the favoriteform. This type of voucher has been adopted by developing countries—notablyBangladesh, Belize, Chile, Colombia, Guatemala, and Lesotho—aswell as by industrial countries such as Poland, Sweden, theUnited Kingdom, and the United States. Much of the recordedexperience with such programs is pertinent to the longstandingtheoretical debates on the desirability of voucher systems.      

… Und sie bewegt sich doch! Ein blick in Geschichte und Gegenwart der Personenversicherungsmathematik

Contrary to non-life insurance mathematics, to mathematical risk theory and, in particular, to mathematical finance, life insurance mathematics is often viewed as static, impressed by long term regulation and administrative supervision of insurance markets in many countries, in short: as a scientifically not very attractive part of actuarial mathematics. With this paper, we want to point out that this is a prejudice. For this, the reader’s attention is drawn to the time when life insurance mathematics started to move, to the 17th century, in particular to the birth and prime of modern life insurance in the then absolutistic France and in the Netherlands. We try to indicate, which needs of the society gave rise to this development and which ?mathematical needs“ came up as a consequence. In the most important fields (mathematical finance, mathematical modelling of the biometric risk, actuarial modelling) we draw a line from there to modern developments.     

Taking notice of risk culture – the regulator’s approach

Following the financial crisis and a series of mis-selling and ‘rigging’ scandals in the financial services, organisational culture, and particularly the risk culture of organisations, has come to be regarded as a key issue for both financial firms and their regulators This paper considers the extent to which regulatory published notices, ‘Final Notices’ (FNs), relating to breaches of the regulatory Handbook, are able to provide lessons, or pointers, in the development of ‘appropriate’ cultures. By undertaking a qualitative content analysis of all the FNs in 2012, we examine the extent to which FNs draw attention to issues of culture, and to the regulator’s analysis of the drivers of culture published as part of its treating customers fairly (TCF) initiative. The analysis finds that, although not easy to extract, there are important learning points in FNs relating to organisational culture, and in particular to the factors driving behaviours and outcomes that are signs of poor culture. This paper suggests that, whilst it may not be for a regulator to dictate firms’ culture, it could do much more to make use of the content of FNs as a learning tool for firms; particularly in the context of its cultural framework for TCF. This would support the ‘outcomes-based’ approach being espoused by the UK’s regulators.     

Creditor Protection and Credit Response to Shocks

This article studies the relationship between creditor protectionand credit responses to macroeconomic shocks. Using a data seton legal determinants of finance in a panel of data on aggregatecredit growth for 79 countries during 1990–2004, it isshown that credit is more responsive to external shocks in countrieswith weak legal creditor protection and weak enforcement. Theresults are statistically and economically significant and robustto alternative measures of creditor protection, to the inclusionof variables that reflect different stages of economic development,to the restriction of the sample to only developing economies,to the controls for systemic crises, to alternative shock measures,and to vector autoregressive specifications.     

Assessing adaptive capacity of water management organizations. The case study of the municipality of Tomave (Bolivia)

Climate change is only one of several pressure and drivers, such as natural disasters, improvements in technologies and changing customers’ behaviors that water organizations have to relate and adapt to. This places new challenges (e.g. dealing with increased exposure, vulnerability, and uncertainty) to water management and require water organizations to change their perspective on how to deal with water issues. This paper builds on a literature review to identify dimensions and criteria of adaptive capacity and presents a conceptual framework to assess organizational adaptive capacity. The developed framework has been tested within the Municipality of Tomave (Bolivia). The paper results emphasize the incapacity to transform routines as the context is changing leads to the construction of barriers and to the inability of an organization to support the process of change of the society. In addition, the study emphasis that the development of a working system based on cooperation requires first that an organization acquires skills and adapt its routines to the new working system. Furthermore, the development of a participatory process of planning and implementation of policies would help to reduce the trade-offs and conflicts related to water management. Linked to this, the development of a system for monitoring and evaluation of policies implemented organization can contribute to build an iterative mechanism so to allow a redefinition and improvement of such policies.     

房地产多元化融资的保障路径之考——从赋予公证抵押合同强制力的角度

在房地产市场多元化融资需求日渐膨胀的大背景下,越来越多的民间资本涌入了房地产领域。然而,因民间融资稳定性较低而引发的市场波动不断发生,急需探索保障民间投资顺利发展的有效途径。借助公证的赋予债权文书强制执行力的功能,将借款合同和抵押合同一并进行公证,以具有强制执行力的抵押合同作为履约保证是降低投资风险的有效尝试之一。但因现行公证法律制度并未明确规定能否对抵押合同赋予强制执行力的问题,导致公证实务和司法实践的做法不尽统一,严重阻碍了民间融资市场的繁盛。本文认为,抵押合同在性质上属于公证债权文书的范围,赋予其强制执行力非但不会与诉权理论发生冲突,还能满足实践中的大量需求,为房地产市场融资起到一定的保障作用。     

股票市场投资者结构国际比较研究

本文梳理了A股市场与相关国家(地区)股市投资者结构的现状,探讨这些市场投资者结构的演变路径、以及促成这种演变的主要因素。基于境外主要市场投资者结构演变及政策措施的经验教训,本文提出改进A股市场相关制度的六点政策建议:第一,从更宏观的政策层面入手,改进上市公司结构,增厚上市公司利润,以增进A股市场的长期投资价值;第二,着力培育和鼓励大体量资金机构进入股市;第三,有必要继续扩大海外合格机构投资者资金规模;第四,完善金融产品供应,适当放宽交易规则约束,使机构投资者有更多工具和交易方式参与市场交易;第五,在个人投资者方面,监管部门需要适度转变监管理念,进而改进相关交易规则,鼓励个人投资者以合理方式理性参与股市;第六,创新税收激励机制,合理引导个人投资者。     

发行高新技术企业高收益债券的探讨

发行高新技术企业高收益债券有利于培育和发展战略性新兴产业、解决技术创新融资困境、深化金融改革、丰富科技和金融结合的内涵。目前我国发行高新技术企业高收益债券的条件已经具备,时机已经成熟,建议适时推出。与此同时,我国还需要在发行和交易规则、配套制度建设以及推动形成规范统一的债券市场等方面给予前瞻性关注。