新能源汽车综合商业模式对企业绩效的影响研究

基于"价值链、目标市场、资本结构和竞争战略"4个维度,建构新能源汽车企业商业模式分类标准,对2017-2019年我国的新能源汽车上市公司,确定所属综合商业模式,运用面板模型回归,检验商业模式类型与企业绩效关系,结果表明:多数综合商业模式能显著提升新能源汽车企业持续发展能力."生产制造型"和"国内市场主导"商业模式企业,产出效益显著提升;"保守型资本结构"和"集中化战略"商业模式企业,存货周转率显著提升;"资源型"或"成本领先型"商业模式企业,总资产周转率效果欠佳;"风险型资本结构"商业模式企业,容易出现长期负债过高问题.     

企业年金基金资产结构动态优化研究——基于DCC-GARCH-CVaR模型

资本市场震荡加剧背景下,如何通过资产结构动态调整来增强基金的保值增值能力,是我国企业年金基金投资运营管理中亟需解决的现实技术问题。论文建立DCC-GARCH-CVaR模型刻画资产间动态相关关系和度量投资组合风险,以投资组合风险最小化为目标函数,以期望收益满足最低保证要求为主要约束条件,构建企业年金基金资产结构动态调整模型。结果表明,企业年金基金最优资产结构具有一定的时变特征;资产配置最优权重是各类资产收益风险关系的权衡;资产结构的动态化与多元化是企业年金基金提升保值增值能力的必然选择。     

企业战略风险分析中的动态风险控制模型构建

文章分析了战略风险的概念,探析了基于战略风险的动态风险控制模型的构建途径,旨在为企业战略制定与管理人员提供一定的参考。     

基于隐马尔可夫模型的物流企业客户违约风险评估

物流企业客户违约及其变化过程具有马尔可夫性。在利用经典算法预测违约损失值的基础上,将违约损失值作为影响因素,借鉴隐马尔可夫理论,构建基于影响因素的物流企业客户违约风险评估模型。通过该模型可以计算得到某一时刻物流企业服务的每个客户的违约风险及其风险变化指数和物流企业面临的平均违约风险及其变化指数。算例计算结果表明,该评估模型能够准确度量客户违约风险,并具有可行性和易操作性。     

我国财险企业欺诈类操作风险度量研究

我国财险企业的操作风险管理起步较晚,目前尚未建立损失事件库,损失数据的缺失导致量化分析的研究较少。通过搜集整理并分析近15年来财险企业的欺诈类操作风险损失事件,发现数据具有“高频低损”和“低频高损”的特征,因此采用两阶段损失分布法(PSD-LDA)进行拟合。考虑到操作风险事件的属性以及数据搜集的不完整性,运用复合Poisson-Geometric分布来拟合损失频率从而度量欺诈类操作风险损失,并计提了相应的经济资本来抵御非预期的操作风险损失。结果表明,相对于设定损失频率为齐次泊松分布,基于复合PG分布的PSD-LDA模型能更好的拟合财险企业欺诈类操作风险损失,为我国财险企业操作风险的度量和管理提供了新思路。     

中国信用评级体系反映企业风险了吗

今年年初国家加大对债券市场调整力度,信用评级市场也迎来改革契机.因而本文采用多元有序回归模型,从实证分析角度检验中国企业债券评级方法是否反映企业风险.研究发现中国债券评级和企业的负债率、收益率以及资产增周转率等之间无显著关系.但是企业分布在东部地区、国有企业以及其资产规模会对信用评级产生积极的影响,而在中部和西部对信用评级高低产生消极的影响.     

基于RF-GA-BP模型的芯片上市企业价值评估研究

芯片上市企业是科技创新和资本驱动的双加持型企业，科学评估芯片上市企业价值，是助力芯片企业科技自立自强，探索并提升其价值的有效方法之一。目前芯片企业价值评估方法自洽性较弱。本文收集整理了2016-2021年61家芯片上市企业的相关数据，依据机器学习与企业价值评估相关理论，构建了RFGA-BP模型并实证验证了模型的可行性和有效性。研究表明，RF-GA-BP模型能较好的反映芯片企业的内在价值，为芯片企业价值评估提供新思路；同时，建议芯片上市企业通过强化现金流管理以增强营运资金抗风险能力，加大核心专有技术可持续开发以增强核心竞争力，实施精细化管理以降低经营成本，规范销售流程以加快总资产周转率等措施来提升芯片企业的内在价值。     

智力资本与企业战略绩效:基于中国上市公司的实证研究

基于企业资源观的分析框架,从促进企业竞争优势的稀缺战略资源特性出发,构建了智力资本贡献于企业战略绩效的关系模型.采用上市公司2006-2008年的相关数据,对智力资本与企业战略绩效之间的相关性进行了实证研究.研究结果显示物质资本与企业战略绩效显著正相关,人力资本对企业具有积极的价值创造作用,结构资本与企业战略绩效呈一定...     

信用债违约:潜在水平与时空分布

2018年债券市场风险案件频发,违约触发机制与以往有所不同,体现为由外部现金流收缩而非内部现金流恶化引发。从中债国债指数和经济数据的周期叠加看,流动性风险是当前信用债违约风险的集中表现。通过Fisher判别得出流动资产周转率、速动比率、总资产周转率、现金债务比和总资产报酬率等5个指标是影响信用债风险的核心指标,并由此筛选出当前信用债市场532家潜在风险企业。基于KMV模型对潜在风险企业违约距离及违约概率进行测算,存在3个高风险区间,进一步筛选出136家高风险企业。这些企业从行业看集中于制造业及批发零售业,从地域分布看集中于东部省份,从企业性质看集中于民企及地方国有企业,风险引爆时间集中于2018年四季度及2019年。     

基于Logistic模型的小微企业信用风险度量研究

本文通过对小微企业信贷特征及国内外主流信用风险度量方法的对比分析,筛选出适用于我国小微企业信用风险度量的Logistic模型。利用从银行取得的94个小微企业信贷样本,综合企业的财务及非财务信息,进行了Logistic模型的构建和检验。实证结果表明,该模型对于小微企业的信贷违约概率具有较高的正判率。     

引进境外战略投资者对我国银行信用风险水平的影响

本文以我国19家引资银行2002-2009年的面板数据为样本,实证检验了引进境外战略投资者对银行业信用风险水平的影响。结果表明:引进境外战略投资者确实能改善我国银行信用风险水平,且这种改善效果随着持股时间的增加而增强。但就目前来看,这种改善作用仍较微弱。考察各控制变量系数可知,我国银行业信用风险水平的改善在很大程度上是得益于政府对银行业的保护以及宏观经济的高速发展。针对这一情况,本文在最后对如何进一步发挥境外战略投资者在改善我国银行业信用风险管理水平方面的作用提出了政策建议。     

Economic policy uncertainty and executive turnover

This paper examines whether economic uncertainty increases executive turnover. The negative perception perspective and business change theory suggest that executives are more likely to leave their jobs during periods of corporate distress. However, the additive effects of internal and external risk are thought to prompt firms to carefully consider executive turnover, thereby reducing the likelihood of executive changes. Based on the literature, we propose a check-and-balance hypothesis for the relationship between external uncertainty and executive change, according to which the optimal superposition of the internal and external risks stemming from increased external uncertainty would be to avoid a wave of executive departures. Using a sample of Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2019 and the China economic policy uncertainty index of Baker et al. (2013), we examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty on executive turnover and our results support the check-and-balance hypothesis. Our findings enhance our understanding of how economic policy uncertainty affects executive turnover, and enrich the literature on corporate risk management and strategic management.     

Corporate culture and CEO turnover

We study the effect of corporate culture on the relationship between firm performance and CEO turnover. Utilising a measure of cultural dimension developed in organisation behaviour research, we quantify corporate culture by assessing official documents using a text analysis approach. We employ this quantification to examine the impact of culture on CEO turnover, especially in the case of poor firm-specific performance. First, we find strong evidence of a negative relationship between firm-specific performance and CEO turnover. Second, we demonstrate that the probability of a CEO change, on average, is positively influenced by the competition- and creation-oriented cultures. The negative relationship between firm-specific performance and CEO turnover is reinforced by the control-oriented culture and reduced by the creation-oriented culture. Finally, we study the CEO insider or outsider succession and observe that the creation-oriented culture has a negative relationship with the probability of hiring an outsider. Moreover, the creation-oriented culture weakens the negative relationship existing between the firm-specific performance under the incumbent CEO and the probability of hiring an outsider.     

Fundamental Drivers of Dependence in REIT Returns

We analyse the empirical relationships between firm fundamentals and the dependence structure between individual REIT and stock market returns. In contrast to previous studies, we distinguish between the average systematic risk of REITs and their asymmetric risk in the sense of a disproportionate likelihood of joint negative return clusters between REITs and the stock market. We find that REITs with low systematic risk are typically small, with low short-term momentum, low turnover, high growth opportunities and strong long-term momentum. Holding systematic risk constant, the main driving forces of asymmetric risk are leverage and, to some extent, short-term momentum. Specifically, we find that leverage has an asymmetric effect on REIT return dependence that outweighs the extent to which it increases the average sensitivity of REIT equity to market fluctuations, explaining the strong negative impact of leverage on firm performance especially during crisis periods that has been documented in recent empirical work.     

Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implications of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the ten market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect on property prices. However, we do find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides increased price revelation which, in turn, reduces investment risk and increases property values.     

基于KMV模型的上市中小企业信贷风险研究

本文利用改进的KMV模型,对我国上市中小企业2008-2011年的信贷风险进行实证分析,并对改进后的模型进行准确性研究。研究结果表明:上市中小企业资产规模对违约距离的影响具有不确定性,但效果也不明显;股价的波动也会影响到违约距离的大小,且两者的关系是负相关的。改进后的KMV模型计算出的违约距离能很好地对上市中小企业的信贷风险进行度量和判别,实证分析表明:上市中小企业的违约距离近年来呈下降趋势,信贷风险有增大的迹象。     

Top management turnover,firm performance and government control: Evidence from China's listed state-owned enterprises

Using a sample of 916 Chinese listed state-owned enterprises (SOEs) from 2001 to 2005, we find that the likelihood of top management turnover is negatively associated with firm performance, suggesting the existence of an effective corporate governance mechanism in an emerging economy that is highly controlled by government. We also find that the negative turnover–performance relationship is stronger when the SOE is directly held by the central or local government, holding a monopolistic position in a local economy or in a strategic/regulated industry. The results indicate that the market-based corporate governance mechanism that disciplines top executives as a result of poor performance is not only used in Chinese SOEs, but is used more frequently when the governance control of SOEs is more intense. Our findings support the notion that government control strengthens rather than weakens the turnover–performance governance mechanism. Our additional analysis shows that this complementary effect is stronger in regions that lack pro-market institutions, such as investor protections and a functioning capital market.     

Risk Attitude and Housing Wealth Effect

This paper examines whether the housing wealth effect—the consumption change induced by house price appreciation is dependent upon households’ attitudes toward risk. A simple theoretical model is introduced to highlight a negative relationship between the wealth effect and risk aversion. The paper empirically tests for this negative relationship, using data from the U.S. Consumer Expenditure Survey. The investigation involves two steps. In the first step, we make use of households’ demographics and their risky and liquid asset holdings to estimate risk aversion. The Heckman correction model is applied to address the issue of limited stock market participation. For the second step, we construct pseudo panel data through grouping households by their birth years and their predicted values of risk aversion, and then, we estimate the responses of households’ consumption changes to house price fluctuations by risk-attitude group. Consistent with the prediction of the theoretical model, the estimation results suggest a significant negative relationship between the housing wealth effect and households’ risk attitudes. Households, who are less risk averse, experience greater consumption changes in response to house price appreciation.     

Risk aversion, intertemporal substitution, and the aggregate investment-uncertainty relationship

We analyze the role of risk aversion and intertemporal substitution in a simple dynamic general equilibrium model of investment and savings. Our main finding is that risk aversion cannot by itself explain a negative relationship between aggregate investment and aggregate uncertainty, as the effect of increased uncertainty on investment also depends on the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. In particular, the relationship between aggregate investment and aggregate uncertainty is positive even if agents are very risk averse, as long as the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is low. A negative investment-uncertainty relationship requires that the relative risk aversion and the elasticity of intertemporal substitution are both relatively high or both relatively low. We also show that the implications of our model are consistent with the available empirical evidence.     

The effect on competition of banking sector consolidation following the financial crisis of 2008

Consolidation of the Spanish banking sector after the financial crisis of 2008 raises concerns about potential negative effects on competition. I use structural econometric methods to examine these anti-competitive concerns in the Spanish mortgage market. I estimate a mixed-logit model of mortgage demand and recover bank-level cost information with a strategic model of price competition. Counterfactual experiments reveal that the observed increase in concentration is associated only with small variations in mortgage rates and market shares, staying far from collusive levels. This moderate change in industry conduct implies a small direct effect of consolidation on bank exposures to mortgage risk.