当前我国经济金融形势和相关政策措施

我国成功经受了国际金融危机的严峻挑战,金融宏观调控取得较好成效,金融业抗风险能力不断增强。未来我国金融业发展仍将面临诸多挑战,需要深化金融改革,不断加强金融宏观调控,促进国民经济平稳较快发展。金融宏观调控和经济发展成效显著（一）金融宏观调控取得较好成效2008年下半年,国际金融危机加剧,对我国经济的影响不断加深。     

稳步推动我国金融业综合经营健康发展

国际金融危机并没有改变综合经营作为金融业发展的主流趋势。为实现金融业综合经营的长期健康发展,危机后,国际组织及美欧国家纷纷推出改革举措,强化了对综合经营和系统性风险的监管。我国自2005年10月十一五规划建议提出稳步推进金融业综合经营试点以来,金融业综合经营试点取得了一定成效,金融业尤其是银行业资产和实力进一步壮大,抗风险能力不断增强。当前,需要认真总结和反思国内外经验教训,针对我国金融业综合经营的现状及存在的问题,切实加强监管,有效防范系统性风险,促进我国金融业持续健康发展。     

中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2012年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)——改革与发展:经济金融全球化背景下的中国金融战略

面对当前日趋复杂的国际经济金融形势,以及我国改革进入攻坚阶段的种种挑战,为促进对国际金融领域热点问题的追踪和研究,共谋经济金融全球化背景下中国金融业的改革和发展,中国国际金融     

当前我国经济金融形势和相关政策解析

本文分析了当前国内外经济金融形势,认为国际金融危机对我国金融业造成了一定程度的冲击.为应对国际金融危机,中国人民银行认真执行适度宽松的货币政策,灵活运用货币政策工具组合进行宏观调控,引导货币信贷较快增长,优化信贷结构,促使经济回暖和金融稳健运行.目前我国经济金融持续回升和复苏的基础尚不稳固,需要继续实行适度宽松的货币政策,进一步优化信贷结构,深化金融改革,促进国民经济稳定发展.     

中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2012年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)——改革与发展:经济金融全球化背景下的中国金融战略

面对当前日趋复杂的国际经济金融形势,以及我国改革进入攻坚阶段的种种挑战,为促进对国际金融领域热点问题的追踪和研究,共谋经济金融全球化背景下中国金融业的改革和发展,中国国际金融学会     

中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2013年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)——变化中的全球金融业:问题与选择

2013年已经过半,我们依然面临着不断变幻的国际经济金融形势的挑战。在我国经济金融领域改革全面深化的时期,为促进对国际金融形势和中国金融业改革发展进程中重大问题的研究,中国国际金融学会、中央财经大学金融学院、《国际金融研究》编辑部,定于2013年1l月1日在北京联合举办"中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2013年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)"。论坛将以"变化中的全球金融业:问题与选择"为主题展开征文,并邀请入选者     

中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2012年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)——改革与发展:经济金融全球化背景下的中国金融战略

面对当前日趋复杂的国际经济金融形势,以及我国改革进入攻坚阶段的种种挑战,为促进对国际金融领域热点问题的追踪和研究,共谋经济金融全球化背景下中国金融业的改革和发展,中国国际金融学会、《国际金融研究》编辑部与西南财经大学金融学院,定于2012年11月2     

金融监管协调制度研究:现实障碍与最优路径

金融业的经济核心作用近年来日益被社会广泛认知,其安全同社会公众利益息息相关,如何通过金融业监管协调防化金融风险已成为国际金融危机后国际社会的共识和我国金融业健康发展的重大课题。本文从我国金融业行政管理主体入手,立足我国金融业监管协调的现实障碍,建设性地提出我国金融业监管协调的具体改革路径与重塑的理想框架。     

“中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2012年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)”综述

面对当前日趋复杂的国际经济金融形势,以及我国改革进入攻坚阶段的种种挑战,为促进对国际金融领域热点问题的追踪和研究,共谋经济金融全球化背景下中国金融业的改革和发展,中国国际金融学会、《国际金融研究》编辑部与西南财经大学金融学院,于2012年11月2日在四川成都西南财经大学联合举办了"中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2012年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)",并以"改革与发展:经济金融全球化背景下的中国金融战略"为主     

中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2013年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)——变化中的全球金融业:问题与选择北大核心CSSCISSCI

<正>2013年已经过半,我们依然面临着不断变幻的国际经济金融形势的挑战。在我国经济金融领域改革全面深化的时期,为促进对国际金融形势和中国金融业改革发展进程中重大问题的研究,中国国际金融学会、中央财经大学金融学院、《国际金融研究》编辑部,定于2013年1l月1日在北京联合举办"中国国际金融学会学术峰会暨2013年《国际金融研究》论坛(秋季)"。论坛将以"变化中的全球金融业:问题与选择"为主题展开征文,并邀请入选者     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…