融资流动性与债券资产流动性的互动特征——基于MS-VAR模型的时变分析

依据2015-2021年货币市场和债券市场的时间序列数据,运用MS-VAR探究了不同违约风险环境下融资流动性与债券资产流动性间的互动关系。研究发现：无论是利率债还是信用债,其资产流动性与货币市场的融资流动性存在互为正反馈的流动性螺旋。此外,两类流动性间的互动特征存在非对称性和异质性,在风险时期,融资流动性与利率债资产流动性互动特征比较明显,而在平稳时期,融资流动性与信用债资产流动性互动特征比较明显。     

中债估值识别了债券信用风险吗？——基于跳跃视角的实证分析

本文以2011—2018年中国A股上市公司发行的一般公司债为样本,探究了中债估值跳跃对债券信用利差的影响及作用机制,以此说明中债估值对债券信用风险的识别作用。研究发现:中债估值跳跃能够显著提高债券信用利差,其中,中债估值上跳降低了信用利差,下跳提高了信用利差,且相对于上跳,下跳对信用利差的作用更大。异质性分析发现:中债估值跳跃对信用利差的作用在机构投资者中较大,同时在信息不对称性较严重、流动性较差及违约风险较高的债券中也较大。进一步研究发现:中债估值跳跃不仅包含了公共信息,还含有私有信息,并能改善股票分析师预测表现。本研究说明中债估值能够识别债券信用风险,具有信息含量,对于债券市场信息环境建设和系统性金融风险防范具有重要意义。     

集中持股下的独立审计作用:基于债券市场信用评级的分析

本文基于我国债券市场1550家上市公司和非上市公司数据,从债券市场信用评级视角实证检验了独立审计在控股股东集中持股情况下的治理作用,研究发现:控股股东持股比例与高质量审计师选择之间呈倒U型关系,信用评级相应体现出了这种倒U型关系背后的信号传递动机与企业风险评估。选择不同质量的审计师向市场传递了不同的信号,造成审计师选择在信用评级方面的治理作用也存在差异。结果表明,在控股股东集中持股情况下,我国独立审计(尤其是高质量的独立审计)在债券市场仍然发挥了治理功能,能够在一定程度上降低投资者的信息不对称程度,向市场传递信号,从而提高企业的信用评级水平。     

大力发展我国债券市场的建议

我国债券市场在资本性资源的配置方面发挥了积极的作用，为我国经济建设筹集了大量的资金，对能源、交通、城市基础设施等大型建设项目给予了重点支持，但企业债券融资发展滞后，本文在分析我国债券市场问题的基础上．提出了完善信用评级制度、提高企业债券市场流动性等建议。     

政策预期企稳流动性支撑市场继续走强——2009年11月债券市场简评

11月份债券市场主要特点为：债券市场结束振荡下行进入快速上升通道；国债总指数领涨；1～10年期国债收益率全面下降；高等级企业债收益率呈平坦化；企业债信用利差走势出现明显分化。下一阶段，在货币政策预期企稳的情况下，流动性将支撑债券市场继续走强，国债收益率曲线短端以及中短期信用债券有可能受到投资者的特别关注。因此，初步判断，收益率曲线或陡峭化下移，而信用利差有望全面会企稳甚至下降。     

利率市场化对债市的影响（下）

利率市场化对固定收益类资产的影响 长期影响：信用债配置需求上升 商业银行是债券市场体量最大的投资者。在国债乃至利率债市场，商业银行的托管量占比远超其他机构投资者；在信用债市场，商业银行同样为第一大持有者。     

沈涛:首选高等级信用债

沈涛表示,明年的债市投资可能比权益类更能够吸引普通投资者的注意。其中,中长期限的利率债券和中高等级的信用债券有望实现更多收益。由于受流动性紧张和信用事件冲击等因素影响,今年三季度债券市场出现巨幅下跌,中低评级信用债券和可转债的价格下跌幅度为中     

市场振荡趋弱明显货币政策动向是关键——2009月10月债券市场简评

10月份债券市场主要特点为：债券市场继续振荡下行；债券指数全线下挫，短融指数下降幅度最小；中长期国债收益率全面上涨；高等级企业债收益率普遍上涨；信用利差走势出现分化。下一阶段，债券市场投资者虽资金充裕有一定配置压力，但只要年内还有调整时间，债券市场就难以实现反转。初步判断，收益率曲线可能出现平坦化上移态势，而信用利差或会企稳甚至下降。     

我国债券市场双向开放的现实与对策

经过40年的发展,我国债券市场的债券品种不断增加,投资者类型日益丰富,相关法规制度都不断完善,市场运行质量也有很大提升。尤其是十八大以来,债券市场对外开放日益提速,我国债券市场的国际影响力不断提高,开放的层次也更高,但与发达债券市场相比,我国债券市场开放的程度仍有待提升。本文系统梳理了我国债券市场双向开放的进程和现状,具体包括境外机构投资者境内发债、境内投资,境内投资者境外发债和境外投资四个维度,通过系统梳理发现我国债券市场的开放存在市场分割、信用评级体系不健全、衍生品市场发展不足以及离岸人民币债券市场发展面临制约的问题,并针对这些问题提出进一步深化我国债券市场开放的对策,具体包括整合债券基础设施、完善信用评级体系、丰富衍生品市场和大力发展离岸人民币债券市场等四个方面。     

信用违约互换：中国债券投资者的机遇

该文首先分析了信用违约互换作为一种风险管理工具如何为投资者提供固定收益投资的违约保护；其次分析了信用违约互换作为一种资产如何为投资者提供投资机会；最后文章认为2008年随着操作流程的简化，企业债券将在国内债券市场上占据较大的份额，而引入信用违约互换将进一步促进国内债券市场的长期稳定和发展。     

Liquidity and CDS premiums on European companies around the Subprime crisis

This paper sheds new light on the liquidity dynamics of the credit default swaps (CDS) market in Europe around the Subprime crisis. Based on an original dataset of 94 European companies from 2005 to 2009, we use a panel regression analysis to study the relationship between CDS premiums and liquidity. We measure the level of liquidity, look at liquidity risk, and study the liquidity spillovers from the bond and equity markets to the CDS market. We show that the effect of liquidity on CDS premiums is dominated by the influence of worsening credit conditions and deteriorating investors?? expectations about default risk. Controlling for credit risk, we also find that liquidity risk is priced in the European CDS market and that liquidity spillovers from the bond market matter in determining CDS premiums.     

Investor strategies in the green bond market: The influence of liquidity risks,economic factors and clientele effects

The green bond market has dramatically expanded especially in Europe but severe liquidity issues may undermine its rapid development. If few studies have assessed the implied liquidity risks for investors in terms of liquidity premium, none of them have specifically analysed its behavior across bond maturities. To fill this gap, this paper studies the term structure of the liquidity premium of the green bond market.We find that the sizes of short-term and long-term premia are close to those estimated on the German government bond market. We show that those premia are affected by economic factors and by spillover effects between them, which contribute to the U-Shape of the liquidity premium. Finally, we detect a liquidity clientele effect on the ask side impacting the liquidity premium, which implies a maturity segmentation i.e., high-risk (resp. low-risk) investors buy short-term (resp. long-term) green bonds and hold them until maturity.Taken together, our results deliver valuable insights on investors' strategies in the green bond market. Quite importantly, green bond investors prefer to opt for buy and hold strategies because they are compensated for higher liquidity risks along the entire maturity spectrum.     

流动性补偿、市场内及跨市场“流动性转移”行为

本文分析了我国国债市场的流动性补偿问题,讨论了国债市场内部不同债券之间的流动性转移(Flight-to-liquidity)行为以及国债与企业债市场之间的跨市场流动性转移行为。研究结果发现:流动性显著影响我国国债市场收益率;我国国债市场上,国债市场内部不同债券之间的流动性转移行为显著,当投资者发现债券的流动性变差时,将在国债市场范围内选择流动性好的债券进行投资转移;国债市场与企业债券市场之间的跨市场流动性转移行为比较微弱。     

The fragile capital structure of hedge funds and the limits to arbitrage

During a financial crisis, when investors are most in need of liquidity and accurate prices, hedge funds cut their arbitrage positions and hoard cash. The paper explains this phenomenon. We argue that the fragile nature of the capital structure of hedge funds, combined with low market liquidity, creates a risk of coordination in redemptions among hedge fund investors that severely limits hedge funds' arbitrage capabilities. We present a model of hedge funds' optimal asset allocation in the presence of coordination risk among investors. We show that hedge fund managers behave conservatively and even abstain from participating in the market once coordination risk is factored into their investment decisions. The model suggests a new source of limits to arbitrage.     

Insider employee stock option trading and stock prices

The question of which factors determine corporate bonds pricing is investigated by analysing the spreads of eurobonds issued by major G-10 companies during the 1991–2001 period. Three main results emerge from the analysis. First, bond ratings appear as the most important determinant of yield spreads, with investors’ reliance on rating agencies judgments increasing over time. Second, the primary market efficiency and the expected secondary market liquidity are not relevant explanatory factors of spreads cross-sectional variability. Finally, rating agencies adopt a different, ‘through the cycle’, evaluation criteria of default risk with respect to the forward looking one adopted by bond investors.     

On Speculation, Index Futures Markets, and the Link Between Market Volatility and Investor Welfare

This paper develops a trading model that incorporates informed speculators as well as investors who possess incorrect expectations about asset values. It is shown that the introduction of an index futures market, by stimulating additional misinformed speculation, increases market liquidity and adversely affects price variability and efficiency in the underlying stock markets. An analysis of the welfare of uninformed hedgers suggests that the relationship between uninformed investor welfare and two key parameters that dominate policy discussions, market liquidity and price variability, is quite tenuous.     

Price dispersion in OTC markets: A new measure of liquidity

In this paper, we model price dispersion effects in over-the-counter (OTC) markets to show that, in the presence of inventory risk for dealers and search costs for investors, traded prices may deviate from the expected market valuation of an asset. We interpret this deviation as a liquidity effect and develop a new liquidity measure quantifying the price dispersion in the context of the US corporate bond market. This market offers a unique opportunity to study liquidity effects since, from October 2004 onwards, all OTC transactions in this market have to be reported to a common database known as the Trade Reporting and Compliance Engine (TRACE). Furthermore, market-wide average price quotes are available from Markit Group Limited, a financial information provider. Thus, it is possible, for the first time, to directly observe deviations between transaction prices and the expected market valuation of securities. We quantify and analyze our new liquidity measure for this market and find significant price dispersion effects that cannot be simply captured by bid-ask spreads. We show that our new measure is indeed related to liquidity by regressing it on commonly-used liquidity proxies and find a strong relation between our proposed liquidity measure and bond characteristics, as well as trading activity variables. Furthermore, we evaluate the reliability of end-of-day marks that traders use to value their positions. Our evidence suggests that the price deviations from expected market valuations are significantly larger and more volatile than previously assumed. Overall, the results presented here improve our understanding of the drivers of liquidity and are important for many applications in OTC markets, in general.     

中国信用债券市场现状与展望

该文回顾了中国信用债市场的发展历程,指出经过自2005年以来的快速发展,目前中国信用债券市场已取得了市场规模持续扩大、产品创新不断涌现、市场基础性建设不断完善等成绩,但同时也存在机构投资者持债结构不均衡、国际化程度较低以及信用评级机制有待完善等不足。展望未来,中国信用债市场仍将继续保持高增长态势,发行和投资主体将更加多样化、国际化,且交易市场也将趋向统一。     

Underwriter reputation and the quality of certification: Evidence from high-yield bonds

This paper provides primary evidence of whether certification via reputable underwriters is beneficial to investors in the corporate bond market. We focus on the high-yield bond market in which certification of issuer quality is most valuable to investors owing to low liquidity and issuing firms’ high opacity and default risk. We find bonds underwritten by the most reputable underwriters to be associated with significantly higher downgrade and default risk. Investors seem to be aware of this relation, as we further find the private information conveyed via the issuer-reputable underwriter match to have a significantly positive effect on at-issue yield spreads. Our results are consistent with the market-power hypothesis, and contradict the traditional certification hypothesis and underlying reputation mechanism.