移动支付对家庭货币需求的影响——来自中国家庭金融调查的微观证据

本文运用2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,基于鲍莫尔—托宾模型研究了移动支付对家庭货币需求的影响。为了克服移动支付的内生性,本文选取工具变量,用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS)进行了估计。研究发现,相较于没有移动支付的家庭,拥有移动支付的家庭现金在金融资产的占比下降25%,对其他层次的货币需求也有显著的负向影响,表明移动支付的使用减少了家庭不同层次的货币需求。机制分析表明,交易成本变化是导致移动支付影响现金需求的重要渠道。进一步,本文用分位数回归发现,移动支付对预防性货币需求的影响大于交易性货币需求。移动支付对货币需求的影响在不同的年龄水平、教育水平、城乡地区、东中西部地区和不同城市之间也存在显著差异。本文的研究为理解中国家庭货币需求的变化提供了新的证据,可为相关政策的制定提供参考。     

Money Funds or Markets? Valuing Intermediary Services

Recent market developments, such as on-line trading of Treasury securities and the reduction of the minimum Treasury bill denomination to $1,000, facilitate creation of a viable alternative to U.S. Treasury money funds for investors. Comparison of a direct investment in Treasury bills to U.S. Treasury money funds shows that money fund intermediary services such as check writing, telephone exchange privileges, payroll and automatic transfers, retirement plans, and minimum initial and subsequent purchases are worth an estimated 43 basis points per year, and investors pay an additional 11 basis points for active portfolio management. An analysis of fund net cash flows shows evidence consistent with arbitrage activity between money funds and the direct investment in Treasury bills, especially for investors with few ties to the money fund manager.     

Strategic complementarities and money market fund liquidity management

I use a unique institutional feature of money market funds to identify whether funds hold additional liquidity to guard against and prevent potential investor runs. Specifically, some funds are used as a cash management vehicle for related entities, such as other funds in the fund family. These “internal” funds should experience less outflows during market stress, and should thus have less need to hold this additional liquidity. Indeed, these “internal” prime money market funds do hold lower liquidity than other prime funds. This effect is most pronounced at quarter ends, when there is an exogenous reduction in cash demand from non-US bank dealers.     

Price Elasticity of Demand and an Optimal Cash Discount Rate in Credit Policy

While the provision of a cash discount is equivalent to a reduction in price, the role of price elasticity of demand in determining credit terms has been neglected in the extant literature. In this paper, this role is investigated and it is shown that the optimal cash discount rate is affected by the price elasticity of demand for the firm's product. The comparative effects on the optimal cash discount rate with respect to exogenous changes in the fraction of credit sales paid after taking cash discount, the cost of short-term funds and the bad debt loss ratio are investigated. A trade-off between the time value gain and the price elasticity of demand is established. We find that firms which sell in locations having different price elasticities for their products, and/or which face various costs of short-term funds in different locations, should vary their cash discount terms accordingly.     

Demand and supply functions for money in Canada: Some further evidence

The demand and supply functions for money in Canada are estimated in a simultaneous-equation model format in which the supply of money is considered endogenous. The results indicate that the important determinants of the demand for money are income, short-term interest rate and lagged real cash balance variables. Wealth is an unimportant explanatory variable in money demand thus rejecting the hypothesis that an increase in outside wealth increases the demand for money. The monetary base and cash reserve ratio are important explanatory variables in the money supply function and play a direct role in monetary control.     

The Total Cost of Transactions on the NYSE

This paper develops a measure of execution costs (market impact) of transactions on the NYSE. The measure is the volume-weighted average price over the trading day. It yields results that are less biased than measures that use single prices, such as closes. The paper then applies this measure to a data set containing more than 14,000 actual trades. We show that total transaction costs, commission plus market impact costs, average twenty-three basis points of principal value for our sample. Commission costs, averaging eighteen basis points, are considerably higher than execution costs, which average five basis points. They vary slightly across brokers and significantly across money managers. Though brokers do not incur consistently high or low transaction costs, money managers experience persistently high or lost costs. Finally, the paper explores the possible tradeoff between commission expenditures and market impact costs. Paying higher commissions does not yield commensurately lower execution costs, even after adjusting for trade difficulty. We cannot determine whether other valuable brokerage services are being purchased with higher commission payments or whether some money managers really are inefficient consumers of brokerage trading services.     

大额现金交易问题及其对策研究

当前现金管理中的一个突出问题是随着金融电子化快速发展,大额现金交易反而出现显著增长,这不仅导致社会成本支出的大量增加,而且给一些违法犯罪活动提供便利条件,因此迫切需要加强大额现金交易的监督和管理。本文从灰色经济学理论出发,通过实际调查客观分析大额现金交易问题的主要原因,在此基础上借鉴国际经验和国内银行经验,分析设计多种大额现金管理措施,并通过利用群决策方法对大额现金交易原因的重要性和大额现金管理措施的有效性进行比较评价,提出明确的政策取向和具体的政策建议,从而为进一步加强大额现金管理提供决策依据。     

电子货币视角下的商业银行流动性需求

电子货币的快速发展已经给传统金融理论带来了挑战,特别是对以货币作为经营对象的商业银行经营管理产生了明显的冲击。文章以电子货币发展为视角,尝试性地引入凯恩斯的货币需求理论分析商业银行的流动性需求,旨在为商业银行的流动性管理提供有益的思路。     

2008年1月金融形势评述

1月份金融运行主要特点是：广义货币M2增长18．9％，现金投放较多；人民币贷款新增较多；人民币各项存款增速减缓，企业资金总体充裕，银行间市场人民币交易成交活跃，市场利率保持平稳，人民币对美元继续升值。     

How fast can your company afford to grow?

Everyone knows that starting a business requires cash, and growing a business requires even more. But few people understand that a profitable company that tries to grow too fast can run out of cash even if its products are great successes. So a big challenge for managers of any growing concern is to strike the proper balance between consuming cash and generating it. Authors Neil Churchill and John Mullins offer a framework to help identify and manage the level of growth that a company's cash flow can support. They present a formula to calculate an organization's self-financeable growth (SFG) rate, taking into account three critical factors: a company's operating cash cycle--the amount of time the company's money is tied up in inventory and other current assets before customers pay for goods and services; the amount of cash needed to finance each dollar of sales; and the amount of cash generated by each dollar of sales. The authors offer a detailed hypothetical example that carefully considers these three factors; they then illustrate how a company can influence its SFG rate by carefully managing some combination of those factors--that is, some mix of speeding cash flow, reducing costs, and raising prices. They expand on the original example by showing how to include income taxes and depreciation; plan for asset replacement; and identify which one of multiple product lines holds the greatest growth potential. The authors also discuss how various kinds of businesses--manufacturing firms, importers, and service companies--differ greatly in their abilities to finance growth from internally generated funds.     

The individual's transactions demand for money: A utility maximization approach

This model of the transactions demand shows how an individual may simultaneously choose patterns of consumption, money holdings, and bond holdings over time that maximize utility when faced with a wide variety of possible cyclical patterns in his flow of income. Interesting conclusions about the transactions demand and the real balance effect are derived. For example, there is no theoretical reason to believe that a single individual's demand for money is proportional to his income, and a small excess stock of money is likely to cause a large increase in his level of consumption.     

The transactions demand for money in a two-currency economy

In this paper the model of the transactions demand for money of Baumol (1952) is extended to an economy where transactions are conducted in two currencies. The currency substitution hypothesis - that the domestic demand for domestic money depends on the expected rate of depreciation, as well as the domestic rate of interest and level of income - is derived from the model. In addition, several new insights into the implications of currency substitution are provided.     

Substitution of Noncash Payment Instruments for Cash in Europe

The substitution of noncash (check, giro, credit and debit card) payments for cash transactions is of interest for monetary policy and for determining central banks' future seigniorage revenue. We develop a novel method for approximating the share of cash transactions using public information on currency stocks, noncash payments, and card payment technology for 10 European countries. We also provide a forecast of future cash use by country. The trend in cash substitution across countries is quite similar, but the countries themselves are at significantly different stages in this process. The spread of debit and credit card payments has been the key factor behind the substitution away from cash as the use of electronic cash is still in its infancy.     

Innovation in monetary policy: Challenge and response

This paper presents some relatively non-technical thoughts on the changing rôle of money under the pressure of declining transactions costs and the innovations in monetary policy-making it induces or requires. In the first part, recent British experience is interpreted as a serious warning about the special rôle of money among financial assets under present-day circumstances and the high cost of disregarding it. While this may please the ‘monetarists’, the remainder of the paper argues, as a counterpoint, that this may not remain so forever. In particular, as argued in the second part, the evolution of the Eurodollar market suggests that the rôle of bank money and the significance of the money multiplier are declining. The third part visualizes the outlines of an economy in which the decline in transactions costs has made money stocks generally obsolete.     

大额现金收费制度对遏制利用现金洗钱犯罪行为的作用初探

利用现金洗钱是洗钱活动主要方式之一,而在我国目前现金结算率较高的情况下,现行大额现金管理制度难以满足反洗钱的需要.本文从分析大额现金存取收费制度建立的必要性和可行性着手,本着既能有效服务于反洗钱又不影响民众正常生活的原则,初步设计了对大额现金交易合理限制、合理收费、监测、分析和报告等制度,对大额现金收费制度遏制利用现金洗钱犯罪行为作用进行了初步探索.     

Using Cash to Monitor Liquidity: Implications for Payments,Currency Demand,and Withdrawal Behavior

This paper provides one explanation why cash is still used for transactions despite a broad diffusion of noncash payment instruments. In particular, we argue that a distinctive feature of cash—a glance into one's pocket gives a signal of the remaining budget and past expenses—provides utility to some consumers. Using payment survey data, we show that consumers who need to keep control over their remaining liquidity and who have elevated costs of information processing conduct a larger percentage of payments using cash, withdraw less often, and hold larger cash balances than other consumers.     

Modelling the Implied Volatility of Options on Long Gilt Futures

This paper investigates the properties of implied volatility series calculated from options on Treasury bond futures, traded on LIFFE. We demonstrate that the use of near-maturity at the money options to calculate implied volatilities causes less mis-pricing and is therefore superior to, a weighted average measure encompassing all relevant options. We demonstrate that, whilst a set of macroeconomic variables has some predictive power for implied volatilities, we are not able to earn excess returns by trading on the basis of these predictions once we allow for typical investor transactions costs.     

Two Monetary Models with Alternating Markets

We present a thought‐provoking study of two monetary models: the cash‐in‐advance and the Lagos and Wright ( 2005 ) models. The different approaches to modeling money—reduced form versus explicit role—induce neither fundamental theoretical nor quantitative differences in results. Given conformity of preferences, technologies, and shocks, both models reduce to equilibrium difference equations that coincide unless price distortions are differentially imposed on cash prices, across models. Equal distortions support equally large welfare costs of inflation. Performance differences stem from unequal assumptions about the pricing mechanism that governs cash transactions, not the differential modeling of the monetary exchange process.     

浅析中俄跨境人民币结算

人民币跨境人民币业务源于贸易结算,进而扩展到了投融资与金融交易等领域。因此推行跨境人民币结算的成本收益不应只考虑贸易结算,必须把投融资与金融交易包括在内。近年来对俄跨境人民币结算取得了一些成效,但仍然存在着结算渠道不完善、现钞回流方式单一、人民币输出力度不足和综合服务水平不高等问题,为此应该在增加中俄本币结算代理行数量基础上探索人民币清算行集中清算模式,实施推进中俄货币互换,扩大对俄人民币直接投资,在现有的政策框架内完善在俄人民币回流机制,提升跨境人民币结算的金融服务管理水平,跨境贸易人民币结算制度与原有外汇结算管理制度相衔接。