Private Hochwasservorsorge und Elementarschadenversicherung

In light of increasing flood damage, private flood mitigation gains more relevance. We investigate empirically whether the uptake of private flood mitigation measures in Germany is affected by (a) the perceived flood insurance coverage, and (b) public information campaigns focussing on flood hazards. We use a novel longitudinal dataset of more than 3200 households and employ a difference-in-differences estimation approach. The results show that households who state a change in their insurance status and report themselves as being insured mitigate more, not less. This contradicts the expectation of moral hazard and suggests that insurance and mitigation are rather seen as complements than substitutes. Moreover, the survey data suggest that many households falsely expect being flood-insured. Public information campaigns show no measurable effect on the flood mitigation behaviour of households, which poses questions about the effectiveness of large-scale information campaigns. In tendency, our results support the idea of compulsory flood insurance.     

Flood insurance literacy and flood risk knowledge: Evidence from Portland,Oregon

Flood costs are escalating due to climate change and increased development in hazardous areas. Flood insurance plays a critical role in financial recovery, but there is very little research on how well consumers understand flood insurance policies. Poor insurance literacy could lead to suboptimal risk management decisions. This paper presents some of the first evidence on homeowner flood insurance literacy from a survey of residents in Portland, Oregon. We find that while a basic understanding of general insurance terms is widespread, details about flood insurance policies are not well-understood and many respondents do not know the specific terms of their policy. Residents of the 100-year floodplain are more likely to know that their homeowners’ insurance does not cover flooding, but do not have substantially better understanding or knowledge of specifics about their policy than those outside the floodplain. We also find that the majority of survey respondents did not learn about their flood risk or the cost of flood insurance until after making an offer on their property.     

Flood Insurance Coverage in the Coastal Zone

We explore determinants of flood insurance demand in the coastal zone using micro‐data for nine Southeastern counties. Overall estimates indicate price inelastic demand, though subsidized policyholders have greater coverage and are more price sensitive. Mortgage borrowers exhibit no greater coverage; only 12 percent in 100‐year flood zone indicate flood insurance was required by their lender. Flood insurance demand is increasing in the levels of flood and erosion risk. We find a positive correlation between household income and coverage, but the effect is not monotonic. Community‐level erosion hazard mitigation projects influence flood insurance coverage, with beach replenishment acting as a complement.     

A longitudinal study of concern and judged risk: the case of Ebola in the United States, 2014–2015

The goal of the present study was to investigate whether playing a serious game concerning natural and man-made risks leads to increased risk awareness and additional information search. As an experimental task, we developed a serious board game. Fifty-six students participated in the experiment; half of them played the serious game whereas the other half only filled in a questionnaire at pretest and posttest (after two weeks). Participants who had played the game were more aware of risks in their own environment. Furthermore, playing the serious game counterbalanced the decline in self-efficacy as seen in the control condition. In both conditions, participants gathered more information on natural risks. This positive effect in the control condition is probably a side effect of the method used: a reasonably elaborate questionnaire in combination with a delay of two weeks. In all, the results provide a positive basis for further development of the game and to use it on a larger scale to empower citizens to take more responsibility for their own safety.     

The two faces of social capital in private flood mitigation: opposing effects on risk perception,self-efficacy and coping capacity

Impacts of flooding are expected to increase, most notably in residential areas. As a consequence, private households are increasingly encouraged to engage in private flood mitigation complementary to public measures. Despite the growing literature on private flood mitigation, little is known about how social capital influences households’ perception of and coping with flood risks. This study draws on survey data of 226 flood-prone households in two Austrian Alpine municipalities, both recently affected by riverine flooding. We show that social capital cuts both ways: on the positive side, social capital increases perceived self-efficacy and provides critical support during and most notably after flood events. On the negative side, social capital reduces flood risk perceptions of private households. While social ties are effective when responding to and recovering from floods, the expectation of social support downplays risk, making precautionary action by households less likely. The results also show that flood-affected households receive more social support than they provide to others. In the long-run, this can lead to a problematic reciprocity imbalance, challenging the long-term stability of the interpersonal exchanges underlying social capital. Among the various sources of social support, informal social networks (neighbours, friends and relatives) provide the most important workforce in the response and recovery phase of a flood event. It is therefore crucial for flood risk management to recognise and promote the protective quality of social capital alongside conventional structural and non-structural measures.     

The earnings game. Everyone plays, nobody wins.

Quarterly earnings numbers dominate the decisions of executives, analysts, investors, and auditors. Yet for all the attention paid to these numbers, they're not much use in predicting a company's future performance and cash flows. Even economists are unanimous in their view that these numbers say next to nothing about a company's prospects beyond the next quarter. Nonetheless, meetings analysts' expectations that earnings will rise in a smooth, steady, unbroken line has become, at many corporations, a game whose imperatives override even the imperative to deliver the highest possible return to shareholders. The fetishistic attention paid to this almost meaningless indicator might be cause for amusement, except for one thing: the earnings game does real harm. It distorts corporate decision making. It reduces securities analysis and investing to a guessing contest. It compromises the integrity of corporate audits. Ultimately, it undermines the capital markets. As market participants increasingly come to view the quarterly number as a sort of collective fiction, offered and received in a spirit of mutual cynicism, they lose faith in the numbers affected by quarterly earnings--including stock prices themselves. And no market can survive long if its participants see no connection between prices and the intrinsic value of the goods on offer. In this article, HBR senior editor Harris Collingwood takes an in-depth look at these effects, examining the intricacies of the earnings game and why companies believe they have no choice but to play it. Until more corporate executives change their practices, he explains, the earning game will never lack for players.     

Accessibility of flood risk insurance in the UK: confusion,competition and complacency

Flood risk insurance can be an effective tool in assisting the restoration of damaged property after a flood event and sustaining communities through difficult times. It can also form part of a wider flood risk management strategy. In the light of recent flood events in the UK and in the context of changing property insurance markets, the universal cover previously enjoyed by floodplain residents has been called into question. Conflicting media and industry views leave the floodplain resident and the wider community in confusion. A survey of floodplain residents in England regarding their experience with flooding and flood insurance in England has been undertaken. The results reveal that some floodplain residents do indeed encounter difficulties when seeking insurance for their homes. However, despite the risk‐averse policies of some insurers, availability of insurance is still strong in both at‐risk and previously flooded locations. Success in gaining insurance may lead to complacency among residents who see no advantage in pursuing other, more costly, damage mitigation actions. As a tool in risk management, therefore, the market is prevented from realising its potential by competition, which results in a lack of a consistent approach, rewards homeowners' search strategies and reduces information flow.     

上山下乡经历与家庭风险金融资产投资——基于断点回归的证据

本文使用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010年家庭和个人层面数据,考察了户主的上山下乡经历对于家庭风险金融资产投资决策的影响。结果表明,上山下乡经历显著提高了家庭对于股票及广义风险金融资产的投资概率和投资规模。机制分析表明,此经历主要通过提升家庭投资的风险偏好和投资能力来影响家庭的风险金融资产投资。分样本讨论结果表明,上山下乡经历对家庭风险金融投资产生的正向影响在高人力资本、高收入和高社会资本群体中更为显著。     

Associations between risk judgments and demand for transport risk mitigation

The present study tested a hypothesized model regarding associations between risk sensitivity, risk perception, transport priorities, worry, and demand for risk mitigation in transport. An additional aim was to investigate differences in risk perception, worry, risk sensitivity, transport priorities, and demand for risk mitigation in age-groups, gender, and educational levels. A mail survey was conducted in a representative sample of the Norwegian public over 18?years (n?=?1947) in 2008. The response rate was 31%. The results showed that transport priorities were the strongest predictor of demand for risk mitigation. Risk perception seems to be mediated by worry. Risk sensitivity was directly associated with transport risk perception and, not as predicted, also directly with demand for risk mitigation. The two youngest age-groups (18–30 and 31–50?years) perceived the probabilities of transport accidents in private transportation as significantly larger and also judged other nontransport risks to be larger than those over 50?years of age. The youngest age-group was more worried about injuries from private transportation, but reported lower demands for risk mitigation. The findings merit further research into the relationship between risk perception and demand for risk mitigation. The results indicated that younger individuals were more worried about injuries and assessed the probability of accidents to be larger, while they report a lower demand for risk mitigation compared to older age-groups.     

Preparing for the worst: public perceptions of risk management innovations

Scholars often call for research on the public’s involvement in crisis and risk mitigation. Yet, before the public can be persuaded to become involved in new mitigation initiatives, risk managers must first understand how members of the public perceive such initiatives. Grounded in diffusion of innovation (DOI) theory, this study presents insights from 70 adult residents of a US urban metro area through focus group research. Findings yield insights about public perceptions of risk management innovations including that ‘greater good’ incentives can motivate interest in innovations (more so than financial incentives), thereby extending DOI theory. In addition, participants suggested mechanisms for facilitating government transparency to encourage program participation, along with additional insights about involving the public in government-sponsored risk management innovations.     

Beyond brainstorming: The effectiveness of computer-mediated communication for convergence and negotiation tasks

Although a considerable body of research in information systems has established that computer-mediated communication (CMC) is beneficial for brainstorming (idea generation) tasks, less is known about its effectiveness for more complex decision-making tasks. This paper reports the results of two experiments comparing the performance of face-to-face and CMC teams in decision-making tasks that move beyond brainstorming. In the first experiment, the performance of face-to-face and computer-mediated teams was compared in two tasks: one requiring participants to engage in convergent thinking and a second brainstorming task requiring divergent thinking. Consistent with predictions derived from McGrath's task circumplex model, the results of experiment one reveal that participants using computer-mediated communication perform significantly better than those interacting face-to-face on the divergent (brainstorming) task. On the convergent task, computer-mediated and face-to-face teams performed equally well; i.e., there was not a significant difference in their performance. In the second experiment, the performance of face-to-face and computer-mediated teams was again compared in two tasks: an integrative negotiation task and an idea-generation task. The results of the second experiment were similar to those of experiment one, in that computer-mediated teams significantly outperformed face-to-face teams in the idea-generation task, while computer-mediated and face-to-face teams performed equally well on the integrative negotiation task. These experiments contribute to the literature by shedding additional light on the conditions under which computer-mediated communication is as effective as, and in some cases more effective than, face-to-face interaction.     

Emotions,attitudes, and appraisal in the management of climate-related risks by fish farmers in Northern Thailand

Many previous studies have documented that farmers are risk-averse, while other studies have shown that farmers analyze and estimate risks. Conventional risk aversion measures and analytical judgment often do not fully explain decision behavior. Thus, it may be necessary to consider emotions. The objective of this study was to enhance understanding of the interactions between attitudes, analysis, and emotions in making risk decisions. The study used a mixture of methods, including: a tablet game, risk aversion scales, in-depth interviews, and focus group discussions with fish cage farmers in Northern Thailand. There was no significant difference in risk aversion with respect to gender, age group, or region. Having sufficient capital made it possible to take more risks. Recently being impacted by floods or droughts, or being very concerned with climate change, was not associated with taking fewer risks. Measures of risk aversion did not predict risk decisions. Feeling worried, concerned, anxious, or stressed were the most common negative emotions referred to in interviews. Fear was a reason for not taking risks. Common positive emotions were joy, excitement, and feeling relaxed or relieved. Men who expressed feeling excited or thrilled chose riskier, higher stocking densities in games than women. A common belief was that men were quicker and more confident when making decisions. Another was that emotions had little impact on decisions, but were a response to success and failure – a claim inconsistent with other findings that imply emotions are also important prior to stocking decisions, and while waiting for the harvest. Fear and anxiety in the period prior to harvest may help motivate risk management practices, such as close monitoring and aeration. In conclusion, emotions may play a more important role in making decisions about climate-related risks than was previously recognized.     

ON THE LINKAGE BETWEEN FINANCIAL RISK TOLERANCE AND RISK AVERSION

We explore the linkage between financial risk tolerance (FRT) and risk aversion. To do this, we obtain FRT scores from a psychometrically validated survey and conduct a battery of online lottery choice experiments involving the same nonstudent participants. We contrast: real and hypothetical payoffs, low and high stakes, decisions involving gains and losses, and order effects. Our key finding is that the two approaches to analyzing decision making under uncertainty are strongly aligned. We present evidence that this is particularly the case for the female participants in our sample and when high‐stake gambles are employed.     

How do people perceive graphical risk communication? The role of subjective numeracy

This study aims to evaluate directly how a graphical risk ladder is perceived and how this perception is related to people’s subjective numeracy. Gaze durations and frequencies were used to examine visual attention. Participants (N = 47) appeared to focus on the target risk information, whereas referential information was less attended. Subjective numeracy was negatively correlated with total watching time and the absolute number of gaze events. Results suggest that participants with low subjective numeracy have more difficulty in comprehending the graph, and that they process the graphical information less efficiently than the participants with high subjective numeracy. In addition, the position of referential risks on risk ladders could influence people’s risk perception. Based on these findings, we provide some implications for the design of risk communication graphs and for the use of graphs in informing persons with low subjective numeracy about risks.     

Evaluating lotteries,risks, and risk‐mitigation programs

Two experiments were designed to explore the existence of systematic differences in risk perceptions and risk attitudes between Chinese and US participants. The first experiment involved ranking monetary lotteries using measures of perceived riskiness and willingness to pay (WTP). Several simple heuristics were evaluated to predict perceived riskiness and WTP. Using WTP responses, Cumulative Prospect Theory functions were determined for participants from both countries. The second experiment involved ranking multi‐attribute real‐world risks and associated risk‐mitigation programs using measures of concern and preference, respectively. Compared to their US counterparts, Chinese participants are found to be less risk averse, more concerned about risks with higher catastrophic potential, and more in favor of risk‐mitigation programs with greater scope of benefit. The results also reveal higher within‐group agreement by Chinese participants for all tasks. For both national groups, the within‐group agreement was highest when ranking risk‐mitigation programs, but lowest when ranking lotteries with negative expected value. The implications of cross‐cultural versus cross‐task variation are discussed.     

Messages in online stock forums and stock price synchronicity: Evidence from China

Online stock forums allow investors to share information and exchange opinions, which facilitates the incorporation of firm-specific information into prices and reduces stock price synchronicity. However, prior research presents mixed evidence as to the value of messages in online forums. Using the information of the Eastmoney Guba online forum in China, we find a causal and negative relation between Guba messages and stock price synchronicity. The finding is robust after accounting for media reports and firm fixed effects and using both an instrumental variable analysis and an experimental design that exploits exogenous changes in the authenticity of Guba messages. We find the impact of Guba information is attributed to its roles in both information dissemination and investor interaction and is more pronounced for messages with a negative narrative tone. Additional tests suggest Guba messages improve firm information disclosure quality, reduce stock price crash risk and decrease stock return volatility synchronicity.     

Strategisches Risikomanagement in Versicherungen

Current risk management practise is based on classical stochastic methods. This view encompasses only a fragment of the story of risk management in information networks which must be rewritten. Is strategic interaction the driver of the games the risk community plays one has to answer the question: What are the roots of risk and what is its nature? If one takes the strategic aspect seriously it is obvious that strategic thinking has to be the main input into the risk management process. Strategic interaction is best modelled by game theoretic methods. The article shows how game theory can be used to give risk management strategies a more realistic shape as can be achieved by a purely stochastic approach.     

Schöne Aussicht auf den Fluss? Wahrnehmung von Risiken aus Naturkatastrophen

Impacts of natural disasters have increased worldwide during the last decades. Facing the growing losses from natural hazards also in Germany, the question emerges how persons in likely affected areas perceive risks from natural hazards such as windstorm, flood, and earthquake. The everyday, ?intuitive“ perception of risks is basic for the individual, subjective assessment of natural risks. Consequently, perception and evaluation of risk is basic for behaviour in dangerous situations. It is also fundamental for decisions concerning preventive protective measurements. To be able to develop effective information and communication strategies and politics about natural risks, the perception and evaluation of these risks and influencing factors should be known. Therefore, the purpose of the study presented in this paper is to focus on the perception of storms, floods, and earthquakes and to study factors that influence risk perception. To study risk perception, a mail survey was conducted in summer 2001 in six regions of Germany which had been affected by windstorm, flood and / or earthquake within the last 30 years. Köln-Rodenkirchen, Passau, Karlsruhe, Neustadt/Donau, Albstadt and Rosenheim were selected as survey areas. In total, 450 persons responded the questionnaire. In the study a mixture of approaches to risk perception was applied, among them the psychometric paradigm. The project was conducted at the Institute for Insurance, Universität Karlsruhe (TH) and additionally funded by the Stiftung Umwelt und Schadenvorsorge der SV Versicherungen. The results show that storm, flood, and earthquake are rated heteroge-neously regarding their general dangerousness, several risk characteristics and attributions of causes. Personal characteristics, such as age, education level, and the experience of damage seem to play a role for the general risk rating. In addition, the risk perception of homeowners and tenants differs.     

政策性农业保险参与主体博弈分析及风险防范策略

本文在对政策性农业保险参与主体进行角色定位分析的基础上,剖析了政策性农业保险中政府、保险公司和农户等主体之间以及各级政府之间在不同风险状态下的利益博弈关系,探讨了政府介入政策性农业保险条件下风险补偿的博弈行为,分别从政府、商业保险公司和农户三个主体的角度提出了政策性农业保险风险的具体防范策略。     

The relationship between risk experience and risk response: a study of farmers and climate change

Within the existing literature, the role of experience of risk on attitudinal and behavioural risk response has been relatively neglected. Recent research that draws on the psychological distance of climate change as a concept notes the importance of local, significant experience as a driver for encouraging appropriate response. The experience of flooding was used as the stimulus in this paper, and emphasis placed on whether direct and/or indirect experience of flood risk is associated with different responses to climate change risk. In order to explore the relationship between climate change risk experience and response in the form of on-farm mitigation and adaptation, this paper draws on a case study of farmers in England, many of whom have experienced flooding. Results from a quantitative survey undertaken with 200 farmers in Gloucestershire, England are discussed. Statistical analysis found experience of flooding to be significantly associated with a heightened concern for climate change. Although also finding an association between experience and behavioural response, the sample were most likely to be taking adaptive behaviour as part of normal practice, with factors such as lack of overall concern for climate change risk and absence of information and advice likely to be the main barriers to action. Risk communication needs to further emphasise the connection between climate change and extreme weather events to allow for farmers to perceive climate change as a relevant and locally salient phenomenon, and subsequent tailored information and advice should be offered to clearly illustrate the best means of on-farm response. Where possible, emphasis must be placed on actions that also enable adaptation to other, more immediate risks which farmers in this study more readily exhibited concern for, such as market volatility.