Individual and institutional herding and the impact on stock returns: Evidence from Taiwan stock market

Using high frequency intraday data, this paper investigates the herding behavior of institutional and individual investors in the Taiwan stock market. The study finds evidence of herding by both investors but a stronger herding tendency among institutional than among individual investors. Institutional investors herd more on firms with small capitalizations and lower turnovers and they follow positive feedback strategies. The portfolios that institutional investors herd buy outperform those they sell by an average of 1.009% during the 20 days after intense trading episodes. By contrast, individual investors herd more on firms with small sizes and higher turnovers, and they crowd to buy (sell) stocks with negative (positive) past returns. The portfolios that individual investors herd buy underperform those they sell by an average of − 0.829% during the following 20 days. Moreover, these return differences of both investors are more pronounced under a market with higher pressure and among small stocks. These findings suggest that the herding of institutional investors speeds up the price-adjustment process and is more likely to be driven by correlated private information, while individual herding is most likely to be driven by behavior and emotions.     

An Empirical Investigation of Herding Behavior in the U.S. REIT Market

Our study investigates the market-wide herding behavior in the U.S. equity REIT market. Utilizing the quantile regression method, we find that herding is more likely to be present in the high quantiles of the REIT return dispersion. This implies that REIT investors tend to herd under turbulent market conditions. Our results also support the asymmetry of herding behaviors, that is, herding is more likely to occur and becomes stronger in declining markets than in rising markets. In addition, our findings show that the current financial crisis has caused a change in the circumstances under which herding can occur, as we find that during the current crisis REIT investors may not start to herd until the market becomes extremely turbulent whereas during the relatively normal period before the crisis, investors tend to herd when the market is moderately turbulent. Finally, we find that compared with the case of the ‘pre-modern’ era, REIT investors are more likely to herd in the ‘modern’ era, during which herding usually occurs when the market becomes tumultuous. This implies that the switch of REITs from passive externally managed entities into active self-managed ones has made the investors more responsive to market sentiment.     

THE BROKERAGE FIRM EFFECT IN HERDING: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA

We examine herding behavior of domestic and foreign investors in the Indonesian stock market. We document that both domestic and foreign investors from a particular brokerage firm tend to herd. The foreign investors exhibit a greater propensity to herd than domestic investors. However, when examining investor trading across brokerage firms, we find only weak evidence of herding by domestic investors and no herding by foreign investors. Our overall findings suggest a strong brokerage firm effect on herding but a weak marketwide effect. Moreover, we find evidence that the strong brokerage effect on herding is likely driven by acting on common information.     

Herding and information based trading

This paper expands on the existing literature on information asymmetry by testing if herding exists. We test herd behavior in a transparent and order-driven market using intraday data. We propose (1) a modification in the herding measure, (2) that investors tend to herd more based on fundamental analysis relative to technical analysis, and (3) that informational asymmetry can be identified by applying the informational cascade model to herding. In general, our analyses agree with the existing literature that herding tends to be more prevalent with small stocks and in economic downturns and that investors are more likely to herd when selling rather than buying stocks. Most importantly, our results reveal the existence of informational cascades, which highlights the crucial role played by so-called fashion leaders, especially when more informed investors trade with “noise”.     

Herding and market volatility

In this paper, we explore the impact of investor herding behavior on stock market volatility. We adopt a direct herding measure based on the variation of cross-sectional stock betas. The measure can be readily separated into positive and adverse components, whereby investors herd towards and away from the market portfolio, respectively. Using A-shares listed in the Chinese equity market from August 2005 to March 2021, we show that the market volatility is Granger caused by the measure, and that there exists an asymmetric effect between positive and adverse herding on volatility. Furthermore, we provide robust evidence that the information contained in the herding measure helps generate significantly improved volatility forecasts and add economic value to investors. Our paper not only contributes to the volatility forecasting literature but also advances our understanding of herding in the equity market.     

Institutional herding in international markets

This paper studies herding behavior of institutional investors in international markets. First, we document the existence of wide-spread herding in 41 countries (referred to as “target countries” hereafter) in the sample. We then examine the relation between contemporaneous institutional demand and future returns and find that institutional herding stabilizes prices. Next, we examine the relation between institutional investors’ herding behavior and the level of information asymmetry in the target countries. We measure the degree of information asymmetry in each target country along five dimensions: (1) stock market development, (2) ease of access to information, (3) corporate transparency, (4) investor rights, and (5) macroeconomic factors that relate to the information environment. We find evidence that institutional investors herd more in markets characterized by low levels of information asymmetry (high level of information transparency). This result suggests that institutional investors’ herding behavior is likely driven by correlated signals from fundamental information. Lastly, we show that price adjustment is faster in informationally transparent markets.     

The Response of Dynamic Herd Behavior to Domestic and U.S. Market Factors: Evidence from the Greater China Stock Markets

ABSTRACT

We investigate the dynamic reaction of stock market herding in China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan to unexpected shocks from domestic and U.S. market factors. In China and Taiwan, herding is more pronounced, and the investors tend to herd with the rising stock market returns. Overconfident investors will herd on the subsequent trading days under market stress. Compared with the response to the domestic market factors, the responses of herding in the Greater China stock market to the U.S. market factors are weaker. After the 2007–8 financial crisis, the U.S. market factors highly explain the forecast error variance of herding in the Shanghai A-share and Taiwan markets.     

Dynamic herding analysis in a frontier market

We use constant coefficient and time-varying parameter approaches to examine herding in the context of a frontier market. Our sample comprises of all companies listed on the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange from January 2001 to December 2014. We find significant evidence of herding across the market, which is more prominent for smaller stocks. Microstructures, including liquidity and volatility, intensify herd behavior, except for larger firms. Additional analyses show that herding is present in both up and down markets, but is stronger during rising markets. The time-varying analysis, based on a state-space Kalman filter, further establishes that herding, though quite prevalent, is not a static feature of the market but evolves throughout the sample period. Specifically, it oscillates between greater herding to anti-herd behavior, as investors identify themselves with crises and better information access respectively.     

Firm specific and macro herding by professional and amateur investors and their effects on market volatility

We find a herding tendency among both amateur and professional investors and conclude that the propensity to herd is lower in the professionals. These results are obtained both when we consider herding into individual stocks and herding into stocks in general. Herding depends on the firm’s systematic risk and size, and the professionals are less sensitive to these variables. The differences between the amateurs and the professionals may be attributable to the latter’s superior financial training. Most of the results are consistent with the theory that herding is information-based. We also find that the herding behavior of the two groups is a persistent phenomenon, and that it is positively and significantly correlated with stock market returns’ volatility. Finally, herding, mainly by amateurs, causes market volatility in the Granger causality sense.     

Institutional herding and its price impact: Evidence from the corporate bond market

We examine the extent to which institutional investors herd in the U.S. corporate bond market and the price impact of their herding behavior. We find that the level of institutional herding in corporate bonds is substantially higher than what is documented for equities, and that sell herding is much stronger and more persistent than buy herding. The price impact of herding is also highly asymmetric. While buy herding facilitates price discovery, sell herding causes transitory yet large price distortions. Such price destabilizing effect of sell herding is particularly pronounced for speculative-grade, small, and illiquid bonds, and during the financial crisis.     

Do Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors Herd in Taiwan's Securities Market?

This paper investigates whether and why qualified foreign institutional investors (QFIIs) in Taiwan herd when picking stocks. The evidence shows that QFIIs herd in Taiwan's securities market: They follow each other into and out of the same securities. We identify how the herding behavior forms and how it changes over time. The results suggest that there is an industry effect when QFIIs pick up stocks. They herd on securities classified in specific industries and also prefer stocks with high past returns as well as large firm size, supporting the argument that QFIIs are momentum traders. Characteristic herding and investigative herding explain QFIIs' trading behavior in Taiwan.     

Herding behavior in the Pakistan stock exchange: Some new insights

This study attempts to examine the presence of herding behavior in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX). The novel contribution of this paper is that it investigates the herding phenomenon from a large number of facets such as herding of firms towards market, herding of firms towards industry portfolios, herding of industry portfolios towards market, herding in mostly traded stocks and in large and small stocks, and herding in the crisis period. For this purpose, we use the herding behavior model of Christie and Huang (1995) on the daily closing prices data of 609 firms listed on the PSX from January 2004 to December 2013. Results show that individual firms do not herd towards market index, except when the market experiences a negative return of 5%. However, when we sort firms into small and large groups based on median market capitalization, results indicate that large firms show herding behavior in extreme market movements. Further, we find that firms in several industries herd towards their industry portfolios. However, we find weak evidence of industry portfolios herding towards the market. We also segregate the impact of financial crisis of 2008 from normal times. These findings support results of our baseline estimation.     

中国股市羊群效应的区制转移时变性研究

传统研究采用静态CCK模型检验股票市场的羊群效应,但无法描述羊群行为的动态变化以及市场可能受到的外部影响。本文基于中国股市日频交易数据,在静态CCK模型中引入参数的区制转移性质识别股市在不同状态间的转换,并分析中国股市羊群效应和交叉羊群效应的时变特征。研究表明,中国股市运行周期可被划分为两个区制,分别呈现低波动和高波动的行情特征;羊群效应的程度随区制转移而变化,具有区制依存性。其中,沪深股市在高(低)波动区制中,羊群效应更强(弱),相应区制持续时间较短(长);中国台湾股市仅在高波动区制中出现羊群效应,相应区制持续时间较短;中国香港股市无论在低波动区制或是高波动区制中,均不存在羊群效应。此外,沪深A股在低波动区制中对美国股市和中国香港股市存在交叉羊群效应。     

Analysis of intraday herding behavior among the sector ETFs

A body of literature has emerged suggesting that investors herd, or tend to make investment decisions on the basis of information provided by the trades of other market participants. In this paper, we use intraday data to examine whether traders herd during periods of extreme market movements using sector Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). Two procedures, one based on identifying extreme up market and down market periods and the other based on incorporating a nonlinear term in a regression specification, are used to identify the possibility of the existence of herding behavior in nine sector ETFs traded on the American Stock Exchange. The results support the conclusion that investors do not herd during periods of extreme market movements using ETFs. Furthermore, we show that the market reaction to news is not symmetric for up markets and down markets.     

Retail investor attention and herding behavior

In this paper, we argue that when individual investors can obtain information from public resources such as Google search, the degree of investor attention to a particular underlying company is positively linked with herding behavior for retail investors. Empirical results confirm that Google Search Volume Index can be a proxy for the information demand of uninformed individual investors. Empirical evidence also shows that reaching the price limit generates an attention-grabbing effect. Further, in general, small cap firms generate more intensive individual investor herding. In addition, we explore the asymmetric impact of abnormal search volume index on individual investor herding behavior for bull and bear markets, and confirm that the individual investor buy herding phenomenon is stronger in bull markets, especially for small capitalization firms. In bear markets, with greater price deterioration for large cap firms, we detect herding behavior on the sell side.     

Herd mentality in the stock market: On the role of idiosyncratic participants with heterogeneous information

This paper examines herd behaviour using aggregate market data for stocks, with a focus on the role of idiosyncratic participants with heterogeneous information. We look at herding asymmetry between up and down markets, taking into consideration the daily price limits and the impact of the recent financial crisis. We also improve upon existing tests for fundamental and non-fundamental herding, as well as proposing a method for investigating herd behaviour of different groups of investors. Empirical evidence based on the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange in Vietnam reveals a greater level of herding on up compared to down market days, and a significant reduction in the magnitude of herding following the crisis. We document robust intentional herding even when unintentional (fundamental) herding is factored out. Our empirical results also uncover potential within-group herding and between-group interactions among arbitrageurs and noise traders in the market.     

Investors’ Fear and Herding Behavior: Evidence from the Taiwan Stock Market

This article analyzes the influence of investors’ fear on their investment behavior in the Taiwan stock market. This study used the volatility index (VIX) as a barometer of investors’ fear. Our results show that herding behavior increases with the VIX; that is, herding behavior is encouraged by an increase in investors’ fear. Moreover, our results demonstrate that investors react more quickly to bad news than to good news when their fear increases, supporting the hypothesis of the presence of an asymmetric reaction to news. However, investors react more quickly to good news when their fear decreases, indicating an inverse asymmetric reaction. In addition, our empirical results reveal that herding behavior tends to exist on days with a large trading volume.     

Herding by mutual funds: impact on performance and investors’ response†

In this paper we investigate whether herding by actively managed equity funds affects their performances and flows over the 1980–2013 period. We show that during the herding quarter, on average, funds that trade with the herd benefit from this behavior. Although this does not directly translate into a positive association between the extent to which funds herd and their subsequent performance, we find that the funds that follow the herd earn negative abnormal returns whereas the ones that lead earn no abnormal returns. Our results also indicate that investors react adversely to follower funds while they are neutral towards the leader funds.     

Herd behavior and equity market liquidity: Evidence from major markets

This paper provides new evidence on the relation between herd behavior and equity market liquidity, an issue that has been neglected when it comes to studying herd behavior towards the consensus. We use equity price data for the G5 markets, and initially find no evidence of herding. When, however, we condition on the liquidity of stocks we find significant evidence of herd behavior for high liquidity stocks, for most countries, a result robust to different definitions of the crisis period and different measures of liquidity. The only exception is Germany for which there is weaker evidence of herding in high liquidity stocks. Variance decomposition tests indicate that the variance of the average equity market liquidity is affected by return clustering, especially during the crisis and post-crisis period an effect that is more pronounced for the US market.     

Investor type trading behavior and trade performance: Evidence from the Thai stock market

This paper examines the trading behavior and decomposes the trading performance of foreign, individual and institutional investors as well as proprietary traders in a dynamic emerging stock market, the Stock Exchange of Thailand. Foreign investors follow a positive feedback, momentum strategy and are good short term market timers but have poor security selection performance in poor markets, thus suggesting that they have a macro (market timing) but not a micro (security selection) informational advantage relative to local investors. Institutions and proprietary traders have poor security selection trading performance. Individuals display herding behavior and have fairly good security selection performance, but individual investors appear to compensate proprietary traders for the provision of short term liquidity by proprietary traders, so individuals' security selection gains are canceled out by market timing losses.