A STUDY OF POSSIBLE GAINS FROM INTERNATIONAL INVESTMENT AND THE STATIONARITY OF INTER-COUNTRY CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS: A REPLY

Previous studies have demonstrated that substantial benefits (beyond those available from a naive diversification strategy) were available to the international investor who could perfectly predict future inter-country correlation coefficients. The present author's second paper (Watson, 1980) tested the null hypothesis that the sample correlation coefficients were drawn from the same population. The fact that the null hypothesis was not rejected does not exclude the possibility, as Yallup correctly points out, that the data could be generated by another process.     

Stability of international stock market relationships across month of the year and different holding intervals

Potential benefits from international diversification depend upon the stability in stock market relationships. Using monthly data of 11 international stock markets, this paper examines the stability in stock market relationships across month of the year and across different holding intervals. Empirical results show that the correlation structure is more stable than the covariance structure. While empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that the correlation structure is very stable across different holding intervals, the empirical support for the stability in correlation structure across month of the year is much weaker.     

Transition to the Euro and its impact on country portfolio diversification

By examining the impact of the introduction of the Euro on stock markets and on country diversification within the Eurozone, the evidence does not suggest a high risk to the stock market to justify a risk premium as a result of currency union. Although the Euro market integration has increased inter-country correlations, it does not preclude gains from international diversification, which partially rely on the non-Eurozone countries for an optimal portfolio in a mean-variance framework. Furthermore, the empirical evidence supports that there is a significant stationarity of average correlations over time between pre-Euro and post-Euro periods, and it has improved since the introduction of the Euro. Also, results show that the Euro produced a change in volatility with a different pace within the Eurozone vis-à-vis non-Eurozone countries, to support a direct and opposite relationship between volatility and correlation.     

Performance, Productivity and Innovation in Health Care Organisations: Comparing England and Scotland

The political reforms of the public sector, termed "new public management" (NPM), now have a 20-year history. This paper looks at local differences between England and Scotland over a particular dimension of NPM — performance management in health care. In the context of the dynamic reform agenda in the UK, it is expected that these "local" lessons will have some global relevance. This paper elaborates on these inter-country differences and proposes how the approaches in England and Scotland may affect productivity and innovation in health care delivery. It does this by exploring research into the behaviour of the most powerful of health care providers, the senior clinicians in hospitals.     

Heterogeneous Beliefs, the Term Structure and Time-varying Risk Premia

This paper demonstrates theoretically and empirically that one possible economic explanation of the dynamics of the term structure of interest rates is the time-varying heterogeneous beliefs about future economic conditions. Assuming that each agent forms heterogeneous expectations about both his income shock and others’ beliefs about their income shocks each period, the paper illustrates that heterogeneous beliefs generate time-varying risk premia of the term structure in a closed-form solution. Motivated by this theory, several empirical tests are conducted using the cross-sectional mean and dispersion of belief indices that are extracted as the differences between non-judgemental econometric forecasts based on diffusion indices in Stock and Watson (J Bus Econ Stat, 2002) and professional survey forecasts. It is shown that (a) an increase in the mean belief about inflation steepens the yield curve, (b) the mean and dispersion of interest rate beliefs help explain the mean and the stochastic volatility of the term structure, suggesting that time-varying risk premia may be explained by endogenous uncertainty caused by heterogeneous beliefs in the economy.I am indebted to Mordecai Kurz, Timothy Cogley and Narayana Kocherlakota for constant support and extensive discussions that inspired this work. I would like to thank Randall Moore for providing the Blue Chip financial forecast data. The financial support from the Smith Richardson Foundation to the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research is gratefully acknowledged.     

Estimating Trend Inflation Based on Unobserved Components Model: Is It Correlated with the Inflation Gap?

Building on the work of Stock and Watson (2007), this paper empirically shows that a negative correlation between innovations to trend inflation and the inflation gap plays an important role in the dynamics of postwar U.S. inflation. Additional features that we incorporate in our model include regime‐switching inflation gap persistence and association between inflation and inflation uncertainty. The resulting estimate of trend inflation is smooth, and our model provides superior out‐of‐sample forecasts than Stock and Watson's (2007) unobserved components model with stochastic volatility or than Atkeson and Ohanian's (2001) random walk model does.     

Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory: A copula based approach

In this paper, we seek to examine the effect of the presence of long memory on the dependence structure between financial returns and on portfolio optimization. First, we focus on the dependence structure using copulas. To select the best copula, in addition to the goodness of fit tests, we employ a graphical method based on visual comparison of the fitted copula density and the smoothed copula density estimated by wavelets. Moreover, we check the stability of the copula parameter. The empirical results show that the long memory affects the dependence structure. Second, we analyze the impact of this dependence structure on the optimal portfolio. We propose a new approach based on minimizing the Conditional Value at Risk and assuming that the dependence structure is modeled by the copula parameter. The empirical results show that our approach outperforms the traditional minimizing variance approach, where the dependence structure is represented by the linear correlation coefficient.     

A universal lattice

When valuing derivative contracts with lattice methods, one often needs different lattice structures for different stochastic processes, different parameter values, or even different time intervals to obtain positive probabilities. In view of this stability problem, in this paper, we derive a trinomial lattice structure that can be universally applied to any diffusion process for any set of parameter values at any given time interval. It is particularly useful to the processes that cannot be transformed into constant diffusion. This lattice structure is unique in that it does not require branches to recombine but allows the lattice to freely evolve within the prespecified state space. This is in spirit similar to the implicit finite difference method. We demonstrate that this lattice model is easy to follow and program. The universal lattice is applied to time and state dependent processes that have recently become popular in pricing interest rate derivatives. Numerical examples are provided to demonstrate the mechanism of the model. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

THE CONSEQUENCES OF GROWTH MAXIMISATION AND EXPENSE PREFERENCE POLICIES OF MANAGERS: EVIDENCE FROM UK BUILDING SOCIETIES. A STUDY OF THE CAUSES OF PROFIT INSUFFICIENCY DURING A PERIOD OF INCREASED COMPETITION USING DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS

It has often been argued that the monopolistic position of building societies and the lack of constraints on policies of their managers has brought inefficiencies and managerial utility maximising results. This may be seen in society growth policies and their expense preference behaviour. When there is increased competition affecting margins some building societies may earn insufficient profits so as to threaten their financial stability. The present study uses multiple discriminant analysis to study the period 1978–1980 and verifies the hypothesis that both growth and expense preferences caused profit insufficiency which could lead to financial distress.     

Completeness,interconnectedness and distribution of interbank exposures—a parameterized analysis of the stability of financial networks

This paper assesses the impact of a certain structure of interbank exposures on the stability of a stylized financial system. Given a certain balance sheet structure of financial institutions, a large number of valid matrices of interbank exposures is created by a random generator. Assuming a certain loss given default, domino effects are simulated. The main results are, first, that financial stability depends not only on the completeness and interconnectedness of the network, but also on the distribution of interbank exposures within the system (measured by entropy). Second, looking at random graphs, the sign of the correlation between the degree of equality of the distribution of claims and financial stability depends on the connectivity of the financial system as well as on additional parameters that affect the vulnerability of the system to interbank contagion. Third, the more concentrated the assets are within a money center model, the less stable it is. Fourth, a money center model with asset concentration among core banks is less stable than a random graph with banks of homogeneous size.     

GMO-free regions in Europe: an analysis of diffusion patterns

Genetically modified organisms (GMOs) have been a controversial issue in the European Union (EU). A growing number of member states and regions within the member states oppose the EU’s agro-biotechnology policy, resulting in a complex multi-level structure of policy-making. This study is interested in the regional opposition to GMOs and scrutinises the determinants of membership in the European Network of GMO-free Regions. In terms of theory, this study builds on the literature of policy diffusion. For the analytical purpose, we distinguish among four diffusion mechanisms: learning from earlier adopters, economic competition among proximate regions, imitation of economically powerful regions and deviation from national law. Our research questions are the following: How has membership developed since the foundation of the network? Which mechanisms explain the diffusion patterns observed? The empirical findings show that membership in the network has grown substantially between 2003 and 2014, which supports the general expectation that there is a diffusion of GMO-free regions. Yet, most new member regions are located in the same member states as the regions that founded the network. In other words, what is observed is intra-country diffusion rather than inter-country diffusion. The empirical findings provide support for the importance of learning from earlier adopters for the growing of the European Network of GMO-free Regions.     

ESTIMATING THE DEPENDENCE STRUCTURE OF SHARE PRICES: A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE UNITED STATES AND JAPAN

In this paper, we show that estimating the correlation structure of domestic share prices via the Overall Mean method cannot be considered universally superior to estimation at the Full Historical level for all countries. Specifically, the Japanese data show that the Full Historical Model outperforms the Overall Mean Model in forecasting accuracy, while the opposite is true with the U.S. data. We derive a Composite Model that analytically explains this contrasting result. The Industry Mean Model, which allows for efficient ex ante portfolio selection via a simple algorithm, is likely to be the best forecasting model applicable to both the U.S. and Japanese stock markets.     

Portfolio Optimization under Solvency Constraints: A Dynamical Approach

We develop portfolio optimization problems for a nonlife insurance company seeking to find the minimum capital required that simultaneously satisfies solvency and portfolio performance constraints. Motivated by standard insurance regulations, we consider solvency capital requirements based on three criteria: ruin probability, conditional Value-at-Risk, and expected policyholder deficit ratio. We propose a novel semiparametric formulation for each problem and explore the advantages of implementing this methodology over other potential approaches. When liabilities follow a Lognormal distribution, we provide sufficient conditions for convexity for each problem. Using different expected return on capital target levels, we construct efficient frontiers when portfolio assets are modeled with a special class of multivariate GARCH models. We find that the correlation between asset returns plays an important role in the behavior of the optimal capital required and the portfolio structure. The stability and out-of-sample performance of our optimal solutions are empirically tested with respect to both the solvency requirement and portfolio performance, through a double rolling window estimation exercise.     

货币政策纳入资产价格目标后能更好地调控经济波动吗——基于金融结构视角的分析

本文通过构建包含金融结构的NK-DSGE模型,分析在不同的金融结构下,包含金融资产价格稳定目标的扩展型货币政策能否更加有效地熨平经济波动.研究表明:(1)相比传统货币政策,包含金融资产价格稳定目标的货币政策不仅能更好地熨平宏观经济波动、缩短波动持续期,还能提升社会福利;(2)在扩展型货币政策框架下,央行需结合不同类型冲击下金融结构与宏观调控变量波动的异质相关性,依据金融结构市场化进程,灵活调整其对各个变量的调控力度;(3)在扩展型货币政策框架下,当经济体系面临非持续性技术冲击、投资边际效率冲击或金融冲击时,金融结构市场化程度越高,社会福利增进效果越好.本文的研究为宏观经济调控政策特别是货币政策决策提供了有益启示,或可为新时期增强宏观经济调控效果、构建兼顾金融稳定和经济稳定的平衡发展路径提供新思路和新抓手.     

SOME EVIDENCE ON THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES: HOW TO FIND A BLACK CAT WHEN IT'S NOT THERE

This paper is a critique of a recent Australian study of the term structure of interest rates. It argues that the tests used are likely to be biased and provides some evidence of this effect.     

基于GARCH类模型的人民币汇率非线性依赖关系研究

利用三类不同结构的基本 GARCH 类模型对四个不同时间跨度上人民币汇率序列进行拟合和效度检验;并进一步结合窗口检验程序,借助相关性 C 统计量和双相关 H 统计量对实证对象的 GARCH 类非线性结构的稳定性及 GARCH 类模型中有关非线性相关的基本假设进行检验。结果表明,人民币汇率系统是一个典型的非线性动态复杂系统,人民币汇率序列中的 GARCH 类非线性结构表现出了非持续和瞬时性的特点。     

Bank credit risk events and peers' equity value

This paper documents a negative cross-transmission of bank-idiosyncratic credit risk events to the equity value of peers comprising other banks, insurance and real estate firms inter alia. Large jumps in the idiosyncratic component of bank CDS spreads significantly reduce the equity value of peers, particularly on the event day. The negative externality does not hinge on the “information connectedness” between the two entities as proxied by characteristics such as common core line of business, common country or region, and inter-country common legal tradition. The negative externality is stronger in turmoil market conditions when risk-aversion levels are higher and/or investors are subject to pessimism. The more fragile the risk profile of the event bank and peer firm prior to the event the stronger the cross-transmission. The findings lend support to the wake-up call paradigm at micro level, and are insightful towards a better assessment of the vulnerability of the financial system.     

A MULTIPERIOD MEAN-VARIANCE MODEL OF OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE

The continuing interest in the capital structure issue among financial researchers is evidenced by the stream of capital structure models that have appeared in the literature. Much of this research has used a risk-neutral and/or a single-period framework. In this paper, we develop a capital structure model for multiperiod firms and allow for the firm's cash flows to grow over time, for the firm to issue new debt, and for two types of bankruptcy costs to occur. The types of bankruptcy costs that occur are determined by the firm's uncertain operating cash flows and negotiations between the firm and creditors. Risk is priced via the Sharpe-Lintner capital asset pricing model. Multiperiod risk-priced models, we argue, realistically represent actual firms and are thus an important step toward the development of more testable and usable models of capital structure. We execute a demonstration example in which the value of the levered firm achieves a maximum and discuss the steps the firm would take to maximize shareholder wealth within this example. The example illustrates that the value of the firm passes through an interior optimum as the promised debt payment is increased. A simulation of the effect of changes in firm-specific parameters shows that the model exhibits expected and appealing relationships between these parameters and the value of the levered firm.     

金融稳定有关问题研究综述

金融稳定是一个古老而又现代、历久而又弥新的课题,其引起广泛关注是与 20世纪90年代以来世界各国频仍发生、带来惨重损失的金融危机及由此引发的社会动荡联系在一起的。金融稳定方面的理论研究在国內外尚处于起步的阶段。本文综述了国际上对金融稳定几个主要问题的研究进展状况,重点就金融稳定的框架、货币政策和金融稳定与中央银行和金融稳定等问题梳理、分析和评述了现有文献,以便促进金融稳定研究的进一步深入。     

AUDITOR LIABILITY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRATEGIC EVALUATION OF GOING CONCERN

This paper addresses various aspects of the auditor liability problem in Australia. It identifies, as the fundamental cause of the auditor liability problem, the moral and ethical degradation of the accountancy profession and, as a derivative thereof, its intellectual impoverishment. It indicates a significant imbalance between self-interest and public-interest in the profession. This imbalance is supported with an examination of the resolute efforts which were actioned by powerful members of the profession to control the initiatives which were taken to protect a small minority of members, including themselves, from damage awards. It examines the success which those parties had in bringing about the introduction of an act of parliament to cap damages awarded by a judge and it explores the obnoxious scheme that was enacted under that act to protect wrongdoers from the payment of just, fair, and equitable damages to their victims. The paper indicates that the profession did not do its job properly and that, accordingly, it is not so much the victim as it is the culprit. The paper identifies the evaluation of the going concern basis as being fundamentally flawed and, thereby, as being a basic cause of auditor liability. It suggests the introduction of a multi-disciplinary approach to such evaluations utilizing, amongst other things, strategic management dimensions. It also proposes an order of magnitude expansion of the role of going concern basis evaluations. The paper indicates that the profession is a victim of itself. It concludes with the observation that the accountancy bodies are myopic and that they are not learning organizations. This situation, it states, must change.