The relevance of earnings and cash flows in a heavily regulated industry: Evidence from the Greek banking sector

This study examines the informational quality of annual accounting earnings within Greek banking institutions taking into consideration the most significant risks facing by such firms and specifically interest rate risk, credit risk, liquidity risk and solvency risk, alongside with the persistence of earnings and bank size as significant determinants of ERCs. Data analysis over a period of ten years (1995-2004) revealed that earnings have higher incremental importance in explaining stock return movements compared to cash flows since earnings change has been found to affect stock returns positively. Additionally, interest rate risk has a positive but not significant impact on the return-earnings relation but on the contrary solvency risk, credit risk and liquidity risk proved to have a negative impact on the valuation process for both small and big-sized banks. Finally, tests on the incremental informativeness of cash flows when earnings are transitory provide significant results suggesting that investors seek for alternative measures of banks' performance when earnings are characterized by increased extremity but inversely cash flows and earnings seem to be equally value relevant when investors evaluate big-sized banking institutions. The results are generally robust to the specification of the empirical models and the research design employed in our study.     

Cash Flow Sensitivity of Investment

Investment cash flow sensitivity is associated with both underinvestment when cash flows are low and overinvestment when cash flows are high. The accessibility of external capital is positively correlated with cash flows, intensifying investment cash flow sensitivity. Managers actively counteract the variations in internal and external liquidity by accumulating working capital when liquidity is high and draining it when liquidity is low. These results imply that cash flow sensitive firms face financial constraints, which are binding in low cash flow years. Traditional indicators of financial constraints, such as size and dividend payout, successfully distinguish firms that may potentially face constraints, but are less successful in distinguishing between periods of tight and relaxed constraints. These periods are much more clearly separated by the KZ index, which, on the other hand, is less successful in identifying firms that are likely to face liquidity constraints.     

Accounting Information, Disclosure, and the Cost of Capital

In this paper we examine whether and how accounting information about a firm manifests in its cost of capital, despite the forces of diversification. We build a model that is consistent with the Capital Asset Pricing Model and explicitly allows for multiple securities whose cash flows are correlated. We demonstrate that the quality of accounting information can influence the cost of capital, both directly and indirectly. The direct effect occurs because higher quality disclosures affect the firm's assessed covariances with other firms' cash flows, which is nondiversifiable. The indirect effect occurs because higher quality disclosures affect a firm's real decisions, which likely changes the firm's ratio of the expected future cash flows to the covariance of these cash flows with the sum of all the cash flows in the market. We show that this effect can go in either direction, but also derive conditions under which an increase in information quality leads to an unambiguous decline in the cost of capital.     

The Effects of Liquidity Shocks on Corporate Investments and Cash Holdings: Evidence from Actuarial Pension Gains/Losses

This paper investigates how anticipated liquidity shocks affect corporate investment and cash holdings by examining the impacts of actuarial pension gains/losses that do not reduce current internal resources but will reduce those available in the future. Using a sample from Japanese manufacturing firms in which pension deficits had a huge impact on the internal resources of sponsoring firms, I show that pension losses significantly decrease the capital expenditures of sponsoring firms. Pension losses also increase corporate cash holdings, suggesting precautionary demands for cash prepared for future pension contributions. Overall, the results indicate that managers consider anticipated liquidity shocks in determining current investment and cash‐saving policies.     

The impact of labor unions on investment-cash flow sensitivity

This paper empirically examines how labor unions affect investment-cash flow sensitivity using samples from the US covering the period of 1984–2009. We find a significant positive union effect using a q model of investment. The capital expenditures of firms are 1.71 times more sensitive to internal cash flows when unionization rates increase one standard deviation from the mean. This effect holds when we control for other proxies of financial constraints. In addition, unionized firms are associated with lower cash–cash flow sensitivity, which suggests that the higher investment-cash flow sensitivity in unionized firms is primarily driven by the incentive of these firms to reduce liquidity and enhance bargaining power against the union. We also show that the above union effects become more pronounced during labor contract negotiation years.     

TOWARD A MORE COMPLETE MODEL OF OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE

Most corporate finance practitioners understand the trade-off involved in making effective use of debt capacity while safeguarding the firm's ability to execute its business strategy without disruption. But quantifying that trade-off to arrive at an optimal level of debt can be a complicated and challenging task. This paper develops a simulation model of capital structure that starts by generating multiple estimates of market rates (LIBOR, currency rates) and corresponding company operating cash flows. To arrive at an optimal capital structure, the model then incorporates the shareholder value effects of alternative financing decisions by directly measuring the costs of financial distress, including the costs of missed investment opportunities and higher working capital requirements.
The model generates both a target credit rating and a lower fallback rating that permits a higher level of debt to maintain investments and dividends when operating cash flows are weak. As the model shows, companies with volatile cash flows and significant investment opportunities can add substantial shareholder value by establishing a fallback credit rating that is one or two notches below the target rating. The model also optimizes the mix of fixed versus floating debt, the maturity structure, and the currency composition. Another distinctive feature of the model is its ability to estimate the expected cost of alternative liability structures that can provide the liquidity insurance necessary to sustain the firm through periods of severe stress. This cost turns out to be quite small relative to the total market capitalization of the average firm.     

Bank regulatory capital and liquidity: Evidence from US and European publicly traded banks

The theory of financial intermediation highlights various channels through which capital and liquidity are interrelated. Using a simultaneous equations framework, we investigate the relationship between bank regulatory capital and bank liquidity measured from on-balance sheet positions for European and US publicly traded commercial banks. Previous research studying the determinants of bank capital buffer has neglected the role of liquidity. On the whole, we find that banks decrease their regulatory capital ratios when they face higher illiquidity as defined in the Basel III accords or when they create more liquidity as measured by Berger and Bouwman (2009). However, considering other measures of illiquidity that focus more closely on core deposits in the United States, our results show that small banks strengthen their solvency standards when they are exposed to higher illiquidity. Our empirical investigation supports the need to implement minimum liquidity ratios concomitant to capital ratios, as stressed by the Basel Committee; however, our findings also shed light on the need to further clarify how to define and measure illiquidity and also on how to regulate large banking institutions, which behave differently than smaller ones.     

Corporate financial and investment policies when future financing is not frictionless

We study a model in which future financing constraints lead firms to have a preference for investments with shorter payback periods, investments with less risk, and investments that utilize more pledgeable assets. The model also shows how investment distortions towards more liquid, safer assets vary with the marginal cost of external financing and with firm internal cash flows. Our theory helps reconcile and interpret a number of patterns reported in the empirical literature, in areas such as risk-taking behavior, capital structure choices, hedging strategies, and cash management policies. For example, contrary to Jensen and Meckling [Jensen, M., Meckling, W., 1976. Theory of the Firm: managerial behavior, agency costs, and ownership structure. Journal of Financial Economics 305–360], we show that firms may reduce rather than increase risk when leverage increases exogenously. Furthermore, firms in economies with less developed financial markets will not only take different quantities of investment, but will also take different kinds of investment (safer, short-term projects that are potentially less profitable). We also point out to several predictions that have not been empirically examined. For example, our model predicts that investment safety and liquidity are complementary: constrained firms are specially likely to decrease the risk of their most liquid investments.     

Do bank managers signal through cash flow statements?

We empirically examine the cash flow statements for Japanese banks and whether their managers engage in classification shifting to temper concerns about risk exposure. To create a buffer against liquidity shocks, they shift cash flows from investing and/or financing activities to operating activities. We also find robust evidence that classification shifting intensifies in higher risk situations. Although prior research on managerial discretion focuses on earning management, we are the first to show cash flow management to avoid sequential negative changes in operating cash flows. We show that these activities convey valuable information about changes in banks' risk exposure.     

Firms’ histories and their capital structures

This paper examines how cash flows, investment expenditures, and stock price histories affect debt ratios. Consistent with earlier work, we find that these variables have a substantial influence on changes in capital structure. Specifically, stock price changes and financial deficits (i.e., the amount of external capital raised) have strong influences on capital structure changes, but in contrast to previous conclusions, we find that over long horizons their effects are partially reversed. These results indicate that although firms’ histories strongly influence their capital structures, over time their capital structures tend to move towards target debt ratios that are consistent with the tradeoff theories of capital structure.