欧佩克要革"石油美元"的命

“石油美元”支撑美国经济从 2 0世纪 30年代以来 ,世界绝大多数跨国贸易长期由美元充当“一般等价物” ,其中最大宗的贸易商品石油 ,始终以美元计价和结算 ,由此还生成了对国际金融产生巨大影响的“石油美元”。“石油美元”是石油输出国在油价高企时获得的对外收支的巨额顺差     

人民币计价结算背景下汇率制度选择研究--基于汇率变动时变传递效应的视角北大核心CSSCISSCI

国际贸易计价货币的选择会直接影响汇率变动对物价、出口和产出的传递效应,进而对最优汇率制度选择有重要影响。人民币计价结算为研究计价货币转换背景下汇率变动传递效应的差异提供了一个良好的样本。本文采用随机波动的时变系数结构向量自回归模型(SV-TVP-SVAR),讨论了汇率变动传递效应的时变特征,发现人民币计价结算能够在一定程度上缓解汇率变动对价格、出口和产出的冲击,人民币计价结算背景下实行更加弹性的汇率制度是可行的。     

新疆跨境贸易与投资人民币结算若干问题分析

<正>随着美元、欧元、日元、英镑等国际货币遭遇金融危机的打击,未来新兴经济体在国际金融机构中地位和话语权不断得到提升,当前及今后一个时期,必将成为推进跨境贸易与投资人民币计价结算的重要机遇期。2010年6月22日,经国务院批准,跨境贸易人民币结算试点范围扩大到包括新疆在内的全国20个省(自治区、直辖市);2010年9月30日新疆成为全国首个可以开展跨境直接投资人民币结算试点地区;2010年10月29日,新疆跨境贸易与投资人民币结算试点工作正式启动,这对于密切我国与新疆周边国家的经贸关系、推动跨境人民币计价结算进程具有重要意义。     

基于油价冲击分解的价格传递效应研究

本文通过构建SVAR模型,采用2000年12月至2016年12月的月度数据,将国际油价冲击分解为供给冲击、经济需求冲击以及预防性需求冲击,考察这三种结构性冲击对我国进口价格与国内价格的传递效应及其差异性,在此基础上进一步识别我国通货膨胀的主要来源.结果显示:经济需求冲击与预防性需求冲击带来的国际油价上涨对价格具有正向影响,而供给冲击带来的国际油价上涨对价格的影响方向则不确定;在影响程度上,预防性需求冲击的影响最大,经济需求冲击次之,供给冲击的价格传递作用最小,国际油价冲击对我国通胀的影响主要表现为预期型通胀;此外,在整个商品流通链条中,由于我国市场需求不足以及价格管制等因素,国际油价冲击对我国通胀的影响具有不完全性,这主要表现在国际油价冲击对生产者价格指数的影响最大,而对消费者价格指数的影响则不显著.     

油价再次破百的原因与影响

<正>油价快速破百：走势回顾与原因分析2021年12月以来,国际油价快速上涨。布伦特原油期货价格由2021年12月1日的69美元/桶,快速升至2022年3月8日的128美元/桶,三个多月涨幅达80%以上,近期有所回落。分阶段看,第一阶段,2021年12月1日至2022年2月23日,油价由69美元/桶平稳上涨至95美元/桶,涨幅为38%;第二阶段,     

不受欢迎的美元本位制——狭隘的美国货币政策及中国的作用

<正>一、引言二战结束以来,美元一直是全球贸易的记账货币、银行间国际收支的清算媒介、初级商品贸易的计价货币和官方外汇储备的首选,世界美元本位制极大地方便了国际贸易与交流。而近年来美国相较其主要贸易伙伴经济增速放缓,但美元在国际结算中仍然占据主导地位。     

人民币在跨境交易中计价与结算偏离问题探析

当前,跨境人民币业务存在重跨境交易人民币结算、轻跨境交易人民币计价的问题,使得跨境交易中人民币计价与人民币结算产生较大偏离。这一偏离如长期存在,将对跨境人民币业务乃至人民币"走出去"产生不利影响。本文从货币的计价与结算入手,分析当前跨境人民币业务存在的人民币计价与结算偏离现状、影响及原因,并就缩小人民币计价与结算偏离度提出对策建议。     

中俄贸易人民币计价和结算的瓶颈问题研究

中俄本币结算业务开展5年多以来，人民币计价和结算的比例和规模一直处于明显的弱势地位。人民币国际化对我们来讲是一个全新的课题，其中蕴含着机遇，也充满着挑战。在这种特殊的历史条件下，推进人民币计价和结算在中俄本币结算领域的发展，研究和解决人民币计价和结算在中俄本币结算领域面临的瓶颈问题，对促进人民币区域化发展和为推进人民币国际化积累经验意义十分重大。     

人民币在跨境交易中计价与结算偏离问题探新

当前,跨境人民币业务存在重跨境交易人民币结算、轻跨境交易人民币计价的问题．使得跨境交易中人民币计价与人民币结算产生较大偏离。这一偏离如长期存在,将对跨境人民币业务乃至人民币“走出去”产生不利影响。本文从货币的计价与结算入手,分析当前跨境人民币业务存在的人民币计价与结算偏离现状、影响及原因．并就缩小人民币计价与结算偏离度提出对策建议。     

海外证券市场动态

(2012年7月)7.2新加坡交易所拟交易人民币计价证券。7月2日,新加坡交易所称,拟对人民币计价证券进行报价、交易、清算和结算。目前新加坡交易所支持的外币包括港元、澳元和美元。纳斯达克OMX成功收购挪威结算所。7月2日,经过     

美元指数与原油价格暴涨暴跌的交互刺激研究

采用具有相互刺激特征的Hawkes过程探究美元指数与原油价格暴涨暴跌的交互刺激作用。结果表明:在暴涨暴跌幅度均服从广义帕累托分布的基础上, Hawkes过程对美元指数与原油价格的暴涨暴跌均拟合得较好;美元指数和原油价格的暴涨暴跌具有明显的自我刺激效应,且原油价格的暴涨暴跌会单向刺激美元指数暴涨暴跌的发生,即交叉刺激效应具有非对称性。同时,实证发现Hawkes过程对美元指数与原油价格的暴涨暴跌的预测能力要优于泊松过程。     

人民币对美元汇率和非美货币汇率定价机制的探讨

本文主要研究人民币对美元汇率和人民币对非美货币汇率的定价机制。首先本文探讨了人民币对美元汇率的定价机制,分析了这种定价机制存在的问题,并进一步探讨了人民币对美元汇率参考人民币有效汇率的一篮子货币的定价机制,指出可通过人民币对美元汇率的调整,实现人民币有效汇率目标。其次本文分析人民币对非美货币的定价机制,指出人民币对非美货币汇率必须通过套算机制来确定,本文认为人民币对林吉特和卢布的定价最终可能仍然通过套算确定。最后本文分析了人民币对美元汇率、人民币对非美货币汇率波动幅度之间的关系,指出由于人民币对美元汇率和人民币对非美货币汇率之间存在相互制约的关系,可先放开人民币对非美货币的波动幅度。     

Oil prices,US stock return,and the dependence between their quantiles

In this article, we examine the relationship between oil prices and US equities by proposing a novel quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach to construct estimates of the effect that the quantiles of oil price shocks have on the quantiles of the US stock return. This approach captures the dependence between the distributions of oil price shocks and the US stock return and uncovers two nuance features in the oil–stock relationship. First, large, negative oil price shocks (i.e. low oil price shock quantiles) can affect US equities positively when the US market is performing well (i.e. at high US return quantiles). Second, while negative oil price shocks could affect the US stock market, the influence of positive oil price shocks is weak, which suggests that the relationship between oil prices on the US equities is asymmetric.     

Cointegration test of oil price and us dollar exchange rates for some oil dependent economies

This study examines the long-run dynamics between oil price and the bilateral US dollar exchange rates for a group of oil-dependent economies before and after the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crises. Exchange rates are for the euro, Indian rupee, Russian ruble, South African rand, Ghanaian cedi and the Nigerian naira. The dependence on crude oil of these economies is either because fiscal revenues are primarily reliant on oil export receipts or because industrial production is heavily dependent on petroleum. Empirical results show evidence of a long run equilibrium relationship between oil price and exchange rate, especially for currencies of the key oil-exporting countries. This relationship is more evident in the post crisis period, which is also the period when both exchange rate volatility and the inverse relationship between oil price and exchange rate experienced a significant increase.     

Normal mixture diffusion with uncertain volatility: Modelling short- and long-term smile effects

This paper introduces a parameterization of the normal mixture diffusion (NMD) local volatility model that captures only a short-term smile effect, and then extends the model so that it also captures a long-term smile effect. We focus on the ‘binomial’ NMD parameterization, so-called because it is based on simple and intuitive assumptions that imply the mixing law for the normal mixture log price density is binomial. With more than two possible states for volatility, the general parameterization is related to the multinomial mixing law. In this parsimonious class of complete market models, option pricing and hedging is straightforward since model prices and deltas are simple weighted averages of Black–Scholes prices and deltas. But they only capture a short-term smile effect, where leptokurtosis in the log price density decreases with term, in accordance with the ‘stylised facts’ of econometric analysis on ex-post returns of different frequencies and the central limit theorem. However, the last part of the paper shows that longer term smile effects that arise from uncertainty in the local volatility surface can be modeled by a natural extension of the binomial NMD parameterization. Results are illustrated by calibrating the model to several Euro–US dollar currency option smile surfaces.     

美元贬值和石油价格变动相关性的实证分析

进入新世纪以来,由于各种因素导致美元不断贬值,与此形成鲜明对比的是,石油价格一路飙升。那么,美元汇率和石油价格之间是否存在着某种因果关系呢?由于期货市场具有价格发现功能。本文以最具代表性的美国纽约商品交易所的原油期货价格为研究对象,分析美元贬值和石油价格之间的关系。本文首先定性分析美元贬值导致石油价格上涨的传导机制,然后利用模型对相关数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明,石油期货价格的上涨,除了有美元指数的影响之外,更重要的原因是前期石油期货价格上涨对本期石油期货价格上涨有正向的推动作用。     

Nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation on the global prices of oil and gas

With the acceleration of global energy transition and financialization, intense climate policy uncertainty and financial speculation have significant impacts on the global energy market. This paper uses TVP-VAR-SV models to analyze the nonlinear effects of climate policy uncertainty (CPU), financial speculation, economic activity, and US dollar exchange rate on global prices of crude oil and natural gas respectively, and then compare the time-varying response of oil prices and gas prices to six representative CPU peaks. The results show that responses of energy prices to various shocks have significant nonlinear effects: the time-varying effect of CPU on energy prices from positive to negative over time is significant, and financial speculation has the opposite effects on oil and gas prices. The effect from economic activity is mainly positive, while the effects of US dollar exchange are negative and stable. These results provide important implications for policymakers and investors dealing with high levels of climate policy uncertainty, financial speculation, and global economic activity.     

Has Petroleum Pricing Reform in China Achieved Its Objective? An Empirical Study

China’s petroleum pricing reform has started since 1998 and is still ongoing. It has a profound impact on China’s oil market and even global oil market. We quantitatively evaluate the effectiveness of the reform on two key issues. Has the pricing reform strengthened the linkage between the international crude market and China’s petroleum products market? Has the pricing reform magnified shocks to the international crude market on China’s economy? Our results show that the reform has strengthened the relationship between China’s petroleum prices and international crude price without negative influence on China’s economy, but the effect of China’s petroleum prices on international crude price is still limited. Furthermore, the reform helps the Chinese government reduce oil subsidies.     

Nonlinear Pricing and the Market for Settling Payments

Fedwire Funds is a real‐time gross settlement system that uses a decreasing block pricing scheme to attract nonurgent payments. A bank's optimal response to Fedwire's pricing depends on its perceived benefits to settling nonurgent payments quickly. If the urgency for immediate settlement is great enough, a bank responds to marginal price; otherwise, it responds to average price. We find banks respond to average price, suggesting that Fedwire's advantage over competing services of being able to provide immediate settlement is small. Moreover, attempts to increase demand for Fedwire services by lowering the cost of banks' final block of payments may be ineffective if there is not a corresponding decrease in average cost.     

The Effect of Listing Price Strategy on Transaction Selling Prices

While true underlying home values are expected to be randomly distributed, actual residential listing prices tend to be highly clustered. Particularly, more than 75 % of the homes in our sample are associated with a round or “just below” round asking price. This study provides a theoretical and empirical examination of how the thousands digit in a home’s asking price is related to the final transaction price relative to its true underlying value. Our findings suggest that, on average, homes listed using a “just below” pricing strategy are associated with the greatest discount negotiated relative to the asking price. However, the higher initial degree of list overpricing reflected in “just below” pricing compared with other strategies more than offsets the greater discount. Therefore, “just below” is the most effective pricing strategy for the seller in terms of a greater dollar yield relative to value. These empirical findings have economic significance and are robust across both “buyer” and “seller” housing markets, new versus existing homes, and across multiple home price ranges.