Relative Significance of Journals,Authors, and Articles Cited in Financial Research

We evaluate journals based on their relative contributions to top-level finance research in a recent period. Journals are ranked according to the number of citations found in articles published in Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, and Review of Financial Studies. The analysis controls for both the average number of articles and average number of words published annually in each cited journal. We identify the fifty most frequently cited journals during this period. We also list the fifty most frequently cited authors and articles and note topical trends in the research.     

The monetary policy dilemma: Will interest rates have to rise?

UK interest rates are now at their lowest level for more than two decades, and the government is hoping that interest rates can be kept at a low and sustainable level comparable to the 1960s. Indeed, some commentators are calling for still lower interest rates to offset the risk that the £12bn tax increases and cuts in government spending that will come into effect in the next financial year will lead to stagnant consumer spending and a stalled recovery. Against this must be weighed the risk that the recent very good run of inflation figures will prove temporary. Both headline and underlying inflation will be pushed up by indirect tax increases and there is the possibility that wages will follow too, as employees seek to maintain their living standards in a tightening labour market. That risk would point to a much more cautious monetary policy stance and the possibility that the government may need to raise rates from their present level if it is to achieve its inflation objective. The Chancellor faces a clear dilemma. In this Viewpoint, we assess the evidence available to guide him in his decisions and draw out the implications for the future path of interest rates.     

Land and Credit: A Study of the Political Economy of Banking in the United States in the Early 20th Century

We find that, in the early 20th century, counties in the United States where the agricultural elite had disproportionately large land holdings had significantly fewer banks per capita, even correcting for state‐level effects. Moreover, credit appears to have been costlier, and access to it more limited, in these counties. The evidence suggests that elites may restrict financial development in order to limit access to finance, and they may be able to do so even in countries with well‐developed political institutions.     

The Impact of House Prices on Consumer Credit: Evidence from an Internet Bank

This paper shows that house price fluctuations can have a significant impact on credit availability. Data from Prosper.com, a peer‐to‐peer lending site that matches borrowers and lenders to provide unsecured consumer loans, indicate that homeowners in states with declining house prices experience higher interest rates, greater credit rationing, and faster delinquency. We find especially large effects for subprime borrowers whose balance sheets are likely most exposed to asset price declines. This evidence suggests that asset price fluctuations can play an important role in determining credit conditions and are thus a potentially significant mechanism for propagating macroeconomic shocks.     

The Effect of Errors in Variables on Tests for a Risk Premium in Forward Exchange Rates

Conventional tests for a risk premium in the price of forward exchange use the subsequently realized spot rate as a proxy for prior expectations. Use of this proxy creates a serious errors-in-variables problem which makes it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of zero risk premium. Use of a better proxy for expectations indicates the presence of a risk premium in the forward exchange rate of all countries analyzed.     

Re-Examining the Consumption–Wealth Relationship: The Role of Model Uncertainty

This paper discusses the consumption–wealth relationship. We use data on consumption, assets, and labor income and a vector error correction framework. This framework defines a set of models that differ in the number of co-integrating vectors, the form of deterministic components and lag length. Further models can be defined through parametric restrictions and, in particular, interest centers on a weak exogeneity restriction that says that the co-integrating residuals do not affect consumption and income directly. Key results in previous work relate to the roles of permanent and transitory shocks in driving wealth and how consumption responds to these shocks. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty and argue for the use of Bayesian model averaging. We find that there is a large degree of model uncertainty. Whether this uncertainty has important empirical implications depends on the researcher's attitude toward the theory used to motivate a co-integrating relationship between consumption, assets and income. If we work with models consistent with this theory and impose the weak exogeneity restriction, we find precisely estimated results that show that permanent shocks have only a small role in driving assets and that the predominant transitory shocks have little effect on consumption. These findings are consistent with the previous literature. However, if we work with a broader set of models and let the data speak, we find that the exact magnitude of the role of permanent shocks is hard to estimate precisely. Thus, although some support exists for the view that their role is small, we cannot rule out the possibility that they have a substantive role to play.     

Nonlinear Pricing and the Market for Settling Payments

Fedwire Funds is a real‐time gross settlement system that uses a decreasing block pricing scheme to attract nonurgent payments. A bank's optimal response to Fedwire's pricing depends on its perceived benefits to settling nonurgent payments quickly. If the urgency for immediate settlement is great enough, a bank responds to marginal price; otherwise, it responds to average price. We find banks respond to average price, suggesting that Fedwire's advantage over competing services of being able to provide immediate settlement is small. Moreover, attempts to increase demand for Fedwire services by lowering the cost of banks' final block of payments may be ineffective if there is not a corresponding decrease in average cost.