以违约率为核心的评级质量验证机制研究

债券违约率是衡量信用风险和检验信用评级质量的重要指标.构建以违约率为核心的评级质量验证机制,需要借助历史违约数据.在国内违约数据不足的情况下,为了满足监管要求和完善自身评级体系,评级机构尝试多种方法对传统信用评级方法进行调试和改进.梳理国际和国内违约率统计和应用相关情况,分析以违约率为核心的评级质量验证机制的现状及发展...     

我国信用债违约问题及对策研究

近年来,我国信用债违约事件不断出现,从利息违约到本金违约,从私募债违约到公募债违约,几乎涵盖了所有的信用债品种.违约事件频发背后,反映出我国信用债市场违约风险分担和市场化处置机制不完善、监管与信息披露机制不足、信用评级机构评级质量不高等问题.本文深入剖析了信用债违约背后所呈现出的共性特征,并对信用债违约风险防范方面存在的问题进行了梳理,从统一监管、提高市场透明度和加快评级市场建设等角度,提出了若干对策建议.     

经济波动与违约概率的估计

在经济结构调整的新常态下,我国银行对公客户的实际违约率呈逐渐增长趋势,并且与预估违约率的离差也越来越大,内部评级模型估测的准确性逐渐降低。通过对我国经济增长率和公司类客户的实际违约率进行检验发现,实际违约率与经济波动之间存在着长期稳定的协整关系,且实际违约率相对于GDP增长率变化具有一定的滞后性。因此,在建立信用评级的违约概率模型过程中,可以将经济增长指标作为重要的参考因素,或采用较短的经济波动期间来估计违约集中趋势,从而改善银行信用风险评级体系的敏感性,提高评级结果的准确性。     

建立基于企业价值的信用评级体系

建立基于企业价值的信用评级体系，是对企业未来的还款能力，即企业价值进行评估。企业价值的高低及变化趋势将揭示该企业是否值得给予信贷支持。银行可以运用基于企业价值的信用评级方法来确定信贷支持的客户群。     

顺周期评级行为对信用评级质量的影响研究——基于中国债券市场违约数据北大核心

基于中国债券市场2014-2022年间的违约数据,利用国际评级机构构建的基于违约数据的主流评价指标,从评级一致性和及时性双视角实证考察了评级机构顺周期评级行为对评级质量的影响。研究结果表明:评级机构的顺周期评级行为不仅导致评级结果的一致性下降,而且导致评级调整的及时性变差。应进一步完善我国信用评级理念和评级技术,探索构建跨周期评级体系,提升信用评级质量。     

信用评级中的违约率、违约概率研究

信用评级是对个人、经济体与金融工具履行各种经济承诺的能力及可信任程度的综合评价，本文通过对KMV评级模型的研究，指出在信用评级中的关键指标——“违约率和违约概率”在评级中的重要意义。     

中国银行新一代客户信用评级系统

一、评级系统建立的背景客户信用评级,也称内部评级,是银行准确评估借款人的资信水平,测算借款人的违约概率,把握授信风险,从源头上提高授信资产质量的一种有效途径。在巴塞尔新资本协议中,最引人注目的是对信用风险进行估值的内部评级法(IRB,InternalRating-BasedAp-proach)的推出。建立内部信用评级体系是适应新的监管要求的必然趋势。巴塞尔新协议代表了新的监管趋势和要求,只有适应了这一趋势和要求,银行才能在日趋国际化、多元化的市场中获得生存与发展。建立内部信用评级体系是提高银行核心竞争力的重要手段。新资本协议对于银行风…     

劳动投资效率、企业性质与资产收益率

基于中国信用债券市场的近期违约事件,本文研究发现:涉事评级机构不仅没有因为涉及债券违约事件而收紧信用评级标准,反而更加高估企业的信用评级水平,并且涉及的债券违约事件越多,高估信用评级的程度越大。但投资者通过“用脚投票”方式惩罚了涉事评级机构,导致其市场份额相对于非涉事评级机构出现显著下降或者增长较低的态势,同时涉事评级机构的信用评级意见对于降低企业融资成本的作用显著降低。     

金融信用评级与信用违约互换的风险定价研究

信用违约互换作为一种信用衍生产品通过转移信用风险为信用风险管理带来了深刻变化,其定价问题值得深入研究。通过对违约强度的建模给出两种违约模型——结构性模型、简约模型,结合信用评级制度发现了一个公司的违约强度与其所处的评级之间的关系,使用马尔科夫链建模该公司的信用等级转移状况证明其违约强度为马氏调节过程。该模型增加了模型参数,得出了具有较强操作性的信用违约互换定价公式,并对金融危机下信用违约互换的前景进行了展望。     

客户违约概率(PD)在风险组合管理中的应用

内部评级体系是商业银行风险管理的核心工具,通过客户的违约概率(PD)来体现的客户信用评级是内部评级体系中重要的内容之一,新资本协议和银监会均对其在风险管理中的使用有相应要求。总体而言,客户违约概率(PD)在行业、地区的风险组合管理的作用分为以下几个方面。     

美国评级业监管发展动向及述评

在过去近百年的时间里,美国的资信评级业扩张明显,在资本市场的作用日益重要,评级业的监管也日益完善。本文回顾了美国评级业的监管历史,对2006年新发布的资信评级机构改革法案进行了介绍,并总结和评论了美国证监会2007年发布的“注册为全国认可统计评级组织的评级机构监管”规则提案征求意见稿的相关内容,以期为我国的评级业发展提供借鉴。     

中美监管机构对商业银行风险评级的比较研究

2004年2月,中国银监会颁布了《股份制商业银行风险评级体系(暂行)》,要求逐步开展对商业银行风险状况的评级。由于这一体系是在美国骆驼群评级法的基础上建立起来的,因此,本文集中研究了中美两国监管机构的这两个评级体系。本文在评价指标、评级分类方式、评级结果的运用政策等方面对中国银监会的《体系》与骆驼群评级法进行了比较研究,希望其不但能对中国银监会的评级体系有一个系统的透视,而且能为该体系的进一步改进提供一些参考。     

中美监管机构对商业银行风险评级的比较研究

2004年2月，中国银监会颁布了《股份制商业银行风险评级体系（暂行）》，要求逐步开展对商业银行风险状况的评级。由于这一体系是在美国骆驼群评级法的基础上建立起来的，因此，本文集中研究了中美两国监管机构的这两个评级体系。本文在评价指标、评级分类方式、评级结果的运用政策等方面对中国银监会的《体系》与骆驼群评级法进行了比较研究，希望其不但能对中国银监会的评级体系有一个系统的透视，而且能为该体系的进一步改进提供一些参考。     

国际信用评级体系改革进程及我国评级业发展展望

信用评级是解决金融市场信息不对称问题的重要途径之一,其在资本市场特别是债券市场运行中起着风险揭示、市场定价、防范信用风险等重要作用。长期以来,国际信用评级领域形成了以美国三大评级机构为主体的寡头垄断格局。本次国际金融危机和欧洲主权债务危机的爆发,凸显出现行国际信用评级体系存在的种种弊端。本文分析了现行国际信用评级体系所存在的缺陷,探讨了国际社会及我国政府为进一步完善国际信用评级体系所采取的措施、信用评级对我国商业银行的重要作用及应对建议。     

主权信用评级问题研究

主权信用评级在金融危机中发挥预警作用的同时，还在一定程度上起到了推波助澜的作用。随着各国政府在国际资本市场上发行主权债券的增多，主权信用评级从商业领域步入政治经济领域，不得不引起世界各国政府的高度关注。评级公司在对主权风险进行评级的过程中存在着很多问题，如道德风险、评级失误等，对主权评级过程、模型进行研究、修正具有十分重要的现实意义。本文对标普公司主权评级模型进行了介绍，对主权评级模型提出建议，并对美国主权信用登记进行了分析。     

The role of ESG scoring and greenwashing risk in explaining the yields of green bonds: A conceptual framework and an econometric analysis

This article aims to investigate the factors that most influence the yields of public sector and corporate green bonds besides those conveyed by the conventional finance theory (e.g., rating, volatility, maturity). To accomplish that, we first develop a theoretical framework that postulates the negative relationship between the size of the underlying project financed by a green bond issuance, the use of the ESG metrics to quantify such impact, as well as the positive relationship between the risk of greenwashing practices by the issuer, and the yield to maturity of the green bond. We then provide an empirical validation of our conceptual framework by estimating multiple regression models applied to two distinct samples of public and corporate green bonds issued globally in the 2012–2020 period. The reliability of our results is confirmed by further exploring the effects of some key determinants on the yield spread of green versus comparable ordinary bonds of corporate issuers. Our findings corroborate our theoretical predictions showing that investors are inclined to accept lower returns in exchange for contributing to the funding of infrastructure projects with greater impact on the sustainability of target communities or territories and require higher premia as a form of compensation when being exposed to higher risk of greenwashing by issuers. At corporate level, greenwashing risk is higher among manufacturing (rather than services) firms but more pronounced in the financial sector. At public level, greenwashing strategies may be more easily pursued by multinational or sovereign issuers rather than local governments as the former's greater distance from communities enables them to elude investors' controls. Important recommendations are drawn for investors, rating agencies, and policymakers.     

Intensified Competition and The Impact on Credit Ratings in the RMBS market

In this paper, we empirically investigate the impact of intensified competition on rating quality in the credit rating market for residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) in the period 2017–2020. We provide evidence that competition between large credit rating agencies (CRAs) (Moody's and Standard & Poor's) and newer smaller ones (Dominion Bond Rating Service Morningstar and Kroll Bond Rating Agency) creates credit rating inconsistencies in the RMBS market. While a credit rating should solely represent the underlying credit risk of a RMBS, irrespective of the competition in the market, our results show that this is not the case. When competitive pressure is higher, both large and small CRAs tend to adjust their rating standards (smaller CRAs react to large CRAs and vice versa).     

Rating or no rating? That is the question: an empirical examination of UK companies

The aim of this paper is to examine the main determinants of the rating likelihood of UK companies. We use a binary probit specification to model the main drivers of a firm's propensity to be rated. Using a sample of 245 non-financial UK companies over the period 1995–2006, representing up to 2872 firm years, the study establishes important differences in the financial profiles of rated and non-rated firms. The results of the rating likelihood models indicate that the decision to obtain a rating is driven by a company's financial risk, solvency, default risk, public debt issuance, R&D, and institutional ownership, thus identifying a wider range of determinants and extending the current literature. The study also finds that the rating decision can be modelled by means of a contemporaneous or predictive specification without any loss of efficiency or classification accuracy. This offers support to the argument that the rating process is fundamentally forward-looking.     

Sovereign credit ratings and bank funding cost: Evidence from Africa

This paper aims to examine the relationship between sovereign credit ratings and funding costs of banks and also the relationship between sovereign credit ratings. Using over 300 banks operating in Africa from 2006 to 2012, the study investigates sovereign ratings’ impact on funding cost. The long term domestic sovereign ratings announced by Fitch and Standard & Poor’s during the period under study were used. The panel made use of Generalized Method of Moments estimation strategy for funding cost. The findings of the study indicate that sovereign ratings upgrades have an inverse and statistically significant relationship with funding costs. The findings suggest that sovereign rating upgrades makes it easier for banks to access funds from the capital and global market at a cheaper cost compared to rating downgrades. The study recommends and encourages emerging economies to use the services provided by credit rating agencies since these agencies may help improve accessibility of funds in the international markets by banks. It is recommended that sovereign rating should be considered as a supplement and not a substitute to our own perceived judgement and research.     

The information content of three credit ratings: the case of European residential mortgage-backed securities

We assess the information content of three credit ratings for tranches of newly issued European residential mortgage-backed securities. We find that tranches rated by three credit rating agencies where the rating by Standard & Poor's (S&P's) Ratings Service or Fitch is inferior to Moody's lead to higher funding costs and reflects what we refer to as rating risk. Our results suggest that market participants do not view credit ratings by Fitch and S&P's as redundant despite the fact that both employ the same rating approach.