董事会报告可读性、制度环境与分析师预测——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

依据2007-2016年中国上市公司数据,考量上市公司董事会报告可读性、制度环境对证券分析师盈利预测表现的影响。结果发现：董事会报告可读性越好,分析师预测越准确,分析师预测的分歧度也越小;考虑宏观制度环境的影响,上市公司所处地区的制度环境越好,分析师盈利预测的准确度越高,分歧度越小,受到董事会报告可读性的影响越少。鉴此,应完善公司非财务信息披露和外部制度环境,从而提高分析师预测准确性,促进资源有效配置。     

绿色前置与分析师关注——来自社会责任报告的证据

信息呈现存在顺序效应,影响信息使用者的关注程度。基于心理学顺序效应理论,本文实证研究企业社会责任报告中环境信息呈现位置对分析师关注度的影响。研究发现,环境信息的前置呈现吸引了更强的分析师关注。异质性分析表明,环境信息前置呈现对分析师关注的正向影响在企业所处地区污染更严重、已设立地区环保法庭、环保投资大的企业中,以及非明星分析师和非行业专家分析师的背景下更为显著。我们进一步检验环境信息前置呈现对分析师预测结果的影响,发现这种呈现方式加大了分析师的预测偏差和预测分歧。本文研究发现了环境信息呈现相对位置的分析师效应,分析师更加青睐“绿色前置”,该结论对于企业社会责任报告披露的改进和分析师效率的提升具有重要启示。     

上市公司社会责任信息披露与资本成本的互动关系研究

根据现代企业组织理论,企业承担了社会责任就应当履行向社会披露企业信息的义务。社会责任信息扮演着与财务信息类似的角色,即减少信息不对称,降低资本成本。但其又不同于财务信息披露,因此正确认识社会责任信息披露与资本成本之间的关系,有利于促进上市公司积极承担社会责任,降低资本成本,提高其盈利水平。     

企业社会责任信息披露影响因素实证研究

本文从公司特征和公司治理的角度探讨了企业社会责任信息披露的影响因素,结果发现:公司规模对企业社会责任信息披露具有积极的影响,企业社会责任信息披露与财务杠杆以及股权集中度显著负相关,而与盈利能力、股权性质和外部独立董事比例关系不显著。     

碳信息披露与资本成本的关系研究

资本市场上企业的信息披露行为从财务信息披露到非财务信息披露,从企业社会责任报告披露到碳排放披露。企业自愿披露更多的信息都是为了自身利益,包括提高企业价值,降低资本成本等。本文从碳信息披露与资本成本的关系视角出发,以剖析企业的资本成本是否受益于更好的碳信息披露。     

分析师对创新相关信息的关注能提高预测准确性吗？

本文通过对2012―2020年分析师发布的研究报告进行文本分析，提取其中的创新相关信息含量，探究分析师的创新相关信息关注对于提高其盈利预测准确性的价值。研究发现，分析师研究报告中创新相关信息的含量与盈利预测准确性正相关，说明分析师对创新相关信息的关注有助于提高其盈利预测质量；特别是在公司创新活动强度较大、盈余质量较差、信息不对称程度较高的情况下，分析师对创新相关信息的关注和利用对于提高其盈利预测准确性的作用更强。本文丰富了关于分析师盈利预测和非财务信息价值的研究，为分析师的信息关注和利用提供了一定的启示。     

社会责任信息披露与资产误定价:基于分析师盈余预测的中介效应北大核心

以2010—2017年沪深两市A股上市公司数据为样本,实证检验了企业社会责任信息披露对资产误定价的影响。研究结果表明,随着上市公司社会责任信息披露质量的提高,资产误定价程度显著降低,在控制样本选择偏误后,该结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,分析师盈余预测活动在社会责任信息披露影响资产误定价的过程中发挥了部分中介效应。研究结论在证实社会责任信息披露能够提升股票市场定价效率的同时也丰富了分析师信息中介假说。     

年报风险信息披露有助于提高分析师预测准确度吗?

年报风险信息披露既可能提高信息质量而对分析师预测行为产生积极影响,又可能因增加分析师的风险感知而对分析师预测行为产生消极影响。本文通过文本分析法量化年报风险信息披露,进而探讨其对分析师预测准确度的影响。基于公司层面的证据表明:风险信息披露频率越高,分析师预测准确度越高,而且这种积极影响主要体现在非国有企业、盈余质量较高及公司治理较好组。基于分析师层面的证据表明:风险信息披露频率越高,分析师预测准确度越高,这种积极影响主要体现在非明星、行业专长较低、对公司追踪时间较少的分析师中。这说明我国年报风险信息异质性较弱,有助于提高分析师预测准确度,从而支持了风险信息披露的信息观。本文结论有助于丰富信息披露以及分析师预测文献。     

企业社会责任报告中负面信息披露策略的研究

企业社会责任报告是企业非财务信息披露的重要载体．近年来,我国越来越多的企业开始发布社会责任报告。绝大多数企业社会责任报告更多地披露了履行社会责任的绩效等正面信息,而对于运营中存在的问题等负面信息的披露不足。自愿披露的企业也往往采用一些策略来避免客观公正地传递负面信息,在研究大量企业社会责任报告的基础上．文章分析了六种常用策略,并提出了相关建议改善报告信息的平衡性。     

上市公司信息披露质量与证券分析师盈利预测

本文研究了上市公司信息披露状况与分析师预测行为之间的关系，结果发现，分析师的预测准确性总体上显著优于随机游走模型。进一步的研究发现，上市公司信息披露状况会对证券分析师的预测特征产生影响，信息披露透明度越高，分析师预测对会计盈利数据的依赖程度越低，预测准确性也随之提高。     

ESG Controversies,ESG Disclosure and Analyst Forecast Accuracy

We investigate whether an environmental social governance (ESG) disclosure moderates the relation between ESG controversies and analyst forecast accuracy. The previous literature has shown that ESG controversies increase uncertainty about a firm's future prospects, while ESG disclosure decreases this uncertainty. We therefore take the next step and integrate ESG controversies, ESG disclosure and uncertainty into one model. Our study is based on 8,369 firm-year observations across 51 countries from 2008 to 2017, containing data from RepRisk, Bloomberg and the Institutional Brokers' Estimate System. We find that analyst forecast errors are generally higher for firms with higher exposure to ESG controversies. More importantly, we establish ESG disclosure as a moderator that mitigates the strength of the relation between ESG controversies and analyst forecast errors. Additionally, we identify that the most important pillar for the relation derives from social controversies and disclosure.     

Informative or distracting: CSR disclosure of peer firms and analyst forecast accuracy

We investigate the relationship between the CSR disclosure of peer firms and the analyst forecast accuracy of the focal firm. We find a negative association between peer CSR disclosure and analyst forecast error of the focal firm, indicating that peer CSR disclosure is informative. This negative association is more pronounced when the information environment of the focal firm is worse, when the correlation in fundamentals between the focal firm and its peers is higher, when the business of the focal firm is less complex, when the focal firm has more expert analyst coverage, when the focal firm's financial performance is more sensitive to CSR engagement, or when the quality of peer CSR disclosure is higher. Overall, we show that peer CSR disclosure conveys value-relevant information about the focal firm. Our study enriches the literature on both analyst forecasts and peer information, and we also provide important implications for practitioners in understanding the role of CSR disclosure in capital markets.     

Does corporate governance transparency affect the accuracy of analyst forecasts?

Using country‐level proxies for corporate governance transparency, this paper investigates how differences in transparency across 21 countries affect the average forecast accuracy of analysts for the country's firms. The association between financial transparency and analyst forecast accuracy has been well documented in previous published literature; however, the association between governance transparency and analyst forecast accuracy remains unexplored. Using the two distinct country‐level factors isolated by Bushman et al. (2004 ), governance transparency and financial transparency, we investigate whether corporate governance information impacts on the accuracy of earnings forecasts over and above financial information. We document that governance transparency is positively associated with analyst forecast accuracy after controlling for financial transparency and other variables. Furthermore, our results suggest that governance‐related disclosure plays a bigger role in improving the information environment when financial disclosures are less transparent. Our empirical evidence also suggests that the significance of governance transparency on analyst forecast accuracy is higher when legal enforcement is weak.     

Causal language intensity in performance commentary and financial analyst behaviour

We use automated techniques to measure causal reasoning on earnings‐related financial outcomes of a large sample of MD&A sections of US firms and examine the intensity of causal language in that context against extent of analyst following and against properties of analysts’ earnings forecasts. We find a positive and significant association between a firm's causal reasoning intensity and analyst following and analyst earnings forecast accuracy respectively. Correspondingly, analysts’ earnings forecast dispersion is negatively and significantly associated with causal reasoning intensity. These results suggest that causal reasoning intensity provides incremental information about the relationship between financial performance outcomes and its causes, thereby reducing financial analysts’ information processing and interpreting costs and lowering overall analyst information uncertainty. Additionally, we find that decreases in analyst following are followed by more causal reasoning on performance disclosure. We also find that firms with a considerable increase of causal disclosure especially attract new analysts who already cover many firms. Overall, our evidence of the relationship between causal reasoning intensity and properties of analyst behaviour is consistent with the proposition that causal reasoning is a generic narrative disclosure quality characteristic, able to provide incremental information to analysts and guide analysts' behaviour.     

Did Regulation Fair Disclosure,SOX, and Other Analyst Regulations Reduce Security Mispricing?

Between 2000 and 2003 a series of disclosure and analyst regulations curbing abusive financial reporting and analyst behavior were enacted to strengthen the information environment of U.S. capital markets. We investigate whether these regulations reduced security mispricing and increased stock market efficiency. After the regulations, we find a significant reduction in short‐term stock price continuation following analyst forecast revisions and earnings announcements. The effect was more pronounced among higher information uncertainty firms, where we expect security valuation to be most sensitive to regulation. Analyst forecast accuracy also improved in these firms, consistent with reduced mispricing being due to an improved corporate information environment following the regulations. Our findings are robust to controls for time trends, trading activity, the financial crisis, analyst coverage, delistings, and changes in information uncertainty proxies. We find no concurrent effect among European firms and a regression discontinuity design supports our identification of a regulatory effect.     

Disclosure Practices, Enforcement of Accounting Standards, and Analysts' Forecast Accuracy: An International Study

Using a sample from 22 countries, I investigate the relations between the accuracy of analysts' earnings forecasts and the level of annual report disclosure, and between forecast accuracy and the degree of enforcement of accounting standards. I document that firm‐level disclosures are positively related to forecast accuracy, suggesting that such disclosures provide useful information to analysts. I construct a comprehensive measure of enforcement and find that strong enforcement is associated with higher forecast accuracy. This finding is consistent with the hypothesis that enforcement encourages managers to follow prescribed accounting rules, which, in turn, reduces analysts' uncertainty about future earnings. I also find evidence consistent with disclosures being more important when analyst following is low and with enforcement being more important when more choice among accounting methods is allowed.     

Incremental Voluntary Disclosure on Corporate Websites,Determinants and Consequences

This study analyses the determinants and consequences of internet financial reporting (IFR). Our evidence indicates that firms use the internet to report complementary information on firm background, management forecasts, intangible assets and on social and environmental issues. Our results indicate that the decision to provide additional voluntary financial disclosures through corporate websites is mostly influenced by share turnover, the future profitability of the firm and the level of competition in the industry. Last, we find that the extent of voluntary disclosure on corporate websites is related positively to forecast accuracy, and negatively to the dispersion of analysts forecasts, suggesting that such disclosures provide useful information to analysts.     

Voluntary disclosure of corporate political spending

In this paper, we study voluntary political spending disclosure, a widespread yet relatively unexplored corporate voluntary disclosure practice. Using an index created by the CPA-Zicklin Center that measures the level of voluntary political spending disclosure for S&P 500 firms, we examine firm-level characteristics associated with such disclosures, and their importance. We find that firms with greater political expenditures, direct political connections, higher investor activism, better corporate social responsibility performance and governance, and more industry competition tend to have a higher level of political spending disclosure. We also find that a higher level of political spending disclosure is positively associated with both the number of institutional investors and the proportion of shares owned by institutional investors, particularly socially responsible institutional investors, after controlling for the quality of other disclosures. The level of political spending disclosure is also associated with a higher analyst following, lower forecast error, and smaller forecast dispersion. Finally, we find that political spending disclosure enhances the positive relationship between annual corporate political spending and firm financial performance. Together, these results are consistent with the view that voluntary political spending disclosure helps align managers’ interests with those of shareholders.     

加拿大高校信息披露制度扫描

加拿大高等教育发达,大学治理富有特色,高校信息披露制度全面、完整、系统.从利益相关者视角,以年度财务报告为核心,对加拿大高校信息需求与供给及信息披露的监督进行阐述和分析,强调了董事会在大学治理和信息披露中的责任和作用,以期对我国高校信息披露制度改革有所启示并能提供有用的参考.     

The Effects of Disclosure and Analyst Regulations on the Relevance of Analyst Characteristics for Explaining Analyst Forecast Accuracy

We posit and find an effect of disclosure and analyst reporting regulations implemented from 2000 through 2003 (including Regulation Fair Disclosure, the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act and the Global Settlement Act) on the importance of analyst and forecast characteristics for analyst forecast accuracy. Following the enactment of these regulations, more experienced analysts and All‐Star analysts do not maintain their superior forecast accuracy, and analysts employed by large brokerage houses perform worse than other analysts. In addition, we find a decrease in the importance of analyst effort, the number of industries and firms followed, days elapsed since the last forecast, and forecast horizon. While the importance of bold upward forecast revisions does not change, bold downward revisions lose their relevance for forecast accuracy after 2003. Finally, we find an increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy. We find that the importance of these characteristics varies with the precision of publicly available information. Specifically, the decrease in the importance of most analyst and forecast characteristics and the increase in the importance of prior forecast accuracy are greater when the precision of publicly available information is low. Overall, our results suggest that the positive effects of experience, effort, brokerage house size and All‐Star status on forecast accuracy in the pre‐regulation period were because of the information advantages that these analysts enjoyed (rather than their ability to generate private information). In contrast, our results suggest that prior forecast accuracy is related to analysts’ ability to generate private information.