Inside the black box: Bank credit allocation in China’s private sector

This study examines how the Chinese state-owned banks allocate loans to private firms. We find that the banks extend loans to financially healthier and better-governed firms, which implies that the banks use commercial judgments in this segment of the market. We also find that having the state as a minority owner helps firms obtain bank loans and this suggests that political connections play a role in gaining access to bank finance. In addition, we find that commercial judgments are important determinants of the lending decisions for manufacturing firms, large firms, and firms located in regions with a more developed banking sector; political connections are important for firms in service industries, large firms, and firms located in areas with a less developed banking sector.     

Banks and bubbles: How good are bankers at spotting winners?

This paper examines the bank lending relations of a large sample of technology and nontechnology firms that went public during the 1996–2000 period. We use a unique hand-collected data set to examine the characteristics of firms that establish pre- Initial Public Offering (IPO) bank lending relations and whether post-IPO performance is related to the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. We find that the majority of IPO firms have banking relations before they go public. Firms with banking relations are older, more profitable or, in the case of tech firms, have lower losses, and are more likely to have funding from venture capitalists than firms without banking relations. We also find that banks lent aggressively to technology firms in the sense that current earnings and cash flows were significantly less important in determining banking relations for technology firms than for nontechnology firms. Consistent with the importance of so-called soft information in lending decisions, we find that, controlling for ex ante observable risk measures, there is a positive and significant relation between improvements in post-IPO operating performance and the existence and size of pre-IPO banking relations. Overall, our results indicate that firms with the best current and future prospects establish banking relations. Our findings provide an explanation as to why investors could interpret lending relations as a positive signal of firm quality.     

El índice SEBI como medida del nivel de compromiso con los principios que definen la banca ética

As a consequence of the financial crisis, social banking has become more visible and attractive for both, disappointed customers of conventional banks, and the scientific community. However, research in social banking is still beginning. So, there are many issues without consensus, like the definition itself or the identification of social banks. Thus, this research aims to identify social banking characteristics, with the empirical objective of measuring the commitment to this movement, and ranking values-based banks according to the score obtained as a result of the quantification method that is suggested. The quantification of commitment to social banking is achieved with the new Social and Ethical Banking Index (SEBI), designed with the characteristics firstly defined. The empirical research is carried out with all the banks identified as social by their membership within the main network of social banking: The Global Alliance for Banking on Values (GABV).     

Foreign banks in syndicated loan markets

Foreign banks play a prominent role in syndicated loan markets. In this paper we examine foreign banks’ motives in participating in cross-border deals in 25 European countries. We find that usual explanations of foreign banking activities can only account partly for the high rate of foreign involvement in syndicated loan markets. The usual argument is that foreign banks are at a disadvantage because they lack soft information and thus they tend to lend to more transparent firms compared to their domestic counterparts. We find that this relationship only holds in relatively small financial systems. We illustrate different motivations for the large amount of cross border lending in large developed markets. In these markets foreign banks tend to lend to especially risky borrowers and projects.     

(In)Efficient Interbank Networks

We study the efficiency properties of the formation of an interbank network. Banks face a trade-off by establishing connections in the interbank market. On the one hand, banks improve the diversification of their liquidity risk and therefore can obtain a higher expected payoff. On the other hand, banks not sufficiently capitalized have risk-shifting incentives that expose them to the risk of bankruptcy. Connecting to such risky banks negatively affects expected payoff. We show that both the optimal and the decentralized networks are characterized by a core-periphery structure. The core is made of the safe banks, whereas the periphery is populated by the risky banks. Nevertheless, the two network structures coincide only if counterparty risk is sufficiently low. Otherwise, the decentralized network is underconnected as compared to the optimal one. Finally, we analyze mechanisms that can avoid the formation of inefficient interbank networks.     

Can pure play internet banking survive the credit crisis?

This paper positions the pure-play internet banking model (PPI) as a hybrid business model that combines features of both relationship and transaction banking. Although in terms of customer orientation PPI banks may partly resemble relationship banks, they lack their comparative advantage in generating borrower-specific information. Instead, the characteristic features of PPI banks are low costs and easy scalability. While the latter may enable PPI banks to quickly capture market share, it may also generate overexposure in risky markets. We present a case study on ING Direct, one of the leading global PPI banks and address the sustainability of the PPI business model by comparing the ING Direct foreign operations. The findings for ING Direct are validated using data for E-Trade Bank. We conclude that managing growth appears to be the prime challenge to PPI banks.     

Contagion risk in the Australian banking and property sectors

The Australian banking system emerged from the global crisis virtually unhurt, with most banks still profitable, adequately capitalized, and with AA credit ratings. Are there any risks or vulnerabilities in this success story? This paper analyzes Australia’s systemic banking risk and attempts to determine if this risk increased with the recent global crisis and whether this risk is related to the downturn experienced in the real estate market. We use extreme value theory to measure banks’ and property firms’ univariate Value at Risk, as well as multivariate intra-sector and inter-sector contagion risks. Of the 13 sectors analyzed, we find that the property sector exhibits the highest level of extremal dependence with the banking sector. The credit crisis significantly increased the probability of a bank or property firm crashing. Moreover, contagion risks significantly increased not only within the banking and property sectors, but also between those sectors.     

The future and dynamics of global systemically important banks

The purpose of this paper is to analyse some of the issues associated with supervision and regulation of global systemically important banks, G-SIB. The paper highlights the importance of managing liquidity risk and creating a global financial system that can minimise regulatory arbitrage by large financial institutions. The paper argues that, unlike some industries such as the airline industry in which risk has been contained and yet the size and capacity of aircrafts have increased, in the banking system, less progress has been made to contain financial risk and allow large banks to expand their global activities. The paper argues that G-SIB are able to continue remaining large provided that a globally integrated financial system ensures effective global supervision of these large banks. The paper compares the US banking crises in the 19th century and the subsequent emergence of the US Federal Reserve System to the possibility of establishing a world central bank and a global supervisory board. Such new global institutions will have the capacity to reduce regulatory arbitrage, increase effective supervision, reduce systemic and liquidity risk and create a more stable global financial system.     

Systemic risk and dynamics of contagion: a duplex inter-bank network

This paper constructs a duplex banking network formed by credit relationships and information interaction via the banks’ balance sheet to model the structure of systemic risk and investigate the dynamic mechanism of contagion in terms of default and liquidity infection along with the factors that affect the extent of the contagion. We systematically explain the role that duplex banking networks play in different aspects of risk contagion. Through theoretical analysis and simulations, we conclude that asymmetric information interaction would increase the inflexibility of the system, which leads to liquidity shortage and possibly the collapse of the whole market. The weakness of systemic risk in the interior of the complex banking system can be characterized by the partial discount factor using illiquid assets in the information network. By improving the connectedness of the information network of the duplex networks, the spread of contagion can be partially slowed.     

Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network

We derive the default cascade model and the fire-sale spillover model in a unified interdependent framework. The interactions among banks include not only direct cross-holding, but also indirect dependency by holding mutual assets outside the banking system. Using data extracted from the European Banking Authority, we present the interdependency network composed of 48 banks and 21 asset classes. For the robustness, we employ three methods, called Anan, Hała and Maxe, to reconstruct the asset/liability cross-holding network. Then we combine the external portfolio holdings of each bank to compute the interdependency matrix. The interdependency network is much denser than the direct cross-holding network, showing the complex latent interaction among banks. Finally, we perform macroprudential stress tests for the European banking system, using the adverse scenario in EBA stress test as the initial shock. For different reconstructed networks, we illustrate the hierarchical cascades and show that the failure hierarchies are roughly the same except for a few banks, reflecting the overlapping portfolio holding accounts for the majority of defaults. We also calculate systemic vulnerability and individual vulnerability, which provide important information for supervision and relevant management actions.     

The patterns of cross-border bank mergers and shareholdings in OECD countries

In recent years there has been a surge in mergers and acquisitions (M&As) in all sectors of economic activity. Cross-border operations have followed this trend, creating global companies operating in all major world markets. In this paper we study the pattern of cross-border M&As in the banking industry relative to the non-financial sector of the economy and investigate which factors make it more likely that a bank will expand its activities abroad. We find that cross-border M&As are rarer in banking than in other sectors, possibly owing to the importance of information asymmetries in banking relationships and to regulatory restrictions. Using data on almost 2500 banks from 29 OECD countries, we also show that the most significant features of banks with foreign equity interests relate to efficiency: banks with cross-border shareholdings are on average larger, more profitable, and based in countries with a more highly developed banking market.     

Transatlantic systemic risk

In this paper we study systemic risk for the US and Europe. We show that banks’ exposures to common risk factors are crucial for systemic risk. We come to this conclusion by first showing that relations between US and European banks are smaller than within each region. We then show that European banks react more strongly to the onset of the financial crisis than US banks. Regarding the consequences of systemic risk, we show that dependence between the banking sector and a wide range of real sectors is limited. Our results imply that regulators and supervisors should address international bank dependencies arising from common risk factors, while recessions in real sectors due to bank defaults should be a secondary concern.     

Assessing systemic risk using interbank exposures in the global banking system

This paper contributes to the literature on systemic risk by examining the network structure of bilateral exposures in the global banking system. The global interbank market constitutes a major part of the global banking system. The market has a hierarchical network structure, composed of the national or jurisdictional area's local markets and the cross-border interbank market. First, we estimate the bilateral exposures matrix using aggregate financial data on loans and deposits from Bankscope and analyze the interconnectedness in the market using network centrality measures. Subsequently, for the model analysis, we apply the Eisenberg–Noe framework to a multi-period setting. In this framework, bank defaults are classified into stand-alone defaults and contagious defaults. The banks in our sample (i.e., the top 202 banks with more than $50 billion in total assets) comprise a major part of this global banking system. The main findings are as follows: The theoretical network analysis using network centrality measures showed that most of the banks designated as global systemically important banks (G-SIBs) play a central role in the global interbank market. The theoretical default analysis showed a few contagious defaults triggered by the basic defaults during and after the global financial crisis. Our stress test proved that many G-SIBs theoretically caused 1–6 contagious defaults. Our methodology would assist in the development of a monitoring system by the respective supervisory authorities as well as in the implementation of bank-internal stress tests of default contagion.     

The profitability of small single-market banks in an era of multi-market banking

This paper examines the relationship between the profitability of small single-market banks and the presence in the market of large banking organizations and banking organizations that operate primarily outside of the local banking market. We find that, in rural banking markets, the profitability of small single-market banks is significantly related to the presence of both large and small primarily-out-of-market banks. We also find that an increased presence of large or small primarily-out-of-market banks in rural banking markets reduces the positive effect of an increase in concentration on small single-market bank profits. This finding is consistent with theoretical predictions reported in the recent literature and has important implications for antitrust policy. In urban banking markets, we find little evidence of any relationship between the profitability of small single-market banks and the presence of large or primarily-out-of-market banks.     

Globalizations and bank performance in China

The paper provides for the first time empirical evidence on the impact of economic globalization on the performance of banks operating in the Chinese banking sector. The empirical findings from this study suggest that the well capitalized banks tend to be more profitable, while expense preference behavior exerts negative impact on bank profitability in China. By examining different components of economic globalization, we find that greater economic integration via higher trade flows, cultural proximity, and greater political globalization have significant and positive influence on bank profitability levels. The impacts of personal contacts and information flows seem to work in favour of the Chinese banks. During the period under study, the empirical findings seem to suggest that liberalization (restrictions) of the capital account exerts positive (negative) influence on the profitability of banks operating in the Chinese banking sector.     

Financial development,government ownership of banks and firm innovation

Using a newly-available World Bank survey of over 28,000 firms from 46 countries, we examine how financial development affects firm innovation around the world. We find that while stock market development significantly enhances firm innovation, banking sector development has mixed effects. We show that the latter result can be explained by different levels of government ownership of banks. Specifically, in countries with lower government ownership of banks, banking sector development significantly enhances firm innovation; while in countries with higher government ownership of banks, banking sector development has no significant or sometimes even significantly negative effects on firm innovation. Such negative effects are significantly stronger for smaller firms. The results are robust to various controls such as firms’ human capital and ownership structure, to estimations using instrumental variable techniques and alternative measures of firm innovation.     

Contagious synchronization and endogenous network formation in financial networks

When banks choose similar investment strategies the financial system becomes vulnerable to common shocks. We model a simple financial system in which banks decide about their investment strategy based on a private belief about the state of the world and a social belief formed from observing the actions of peers. Observing a larger group of peers conveys more information and thus leads to a stronger social belief. Extending the standard model of Bayesian updating in social networks, we show that the probability that banks synchronize their investment strategy on a state non-matching action critically depends on the weighting between private and social belief. This effect is alleviated when banks choose their peers endogenously in a network formation process, internalizing the externalities arising from social learning.     

The determinants of bank margins in European banking

Most of the theoretical and empirical literature on bank margins has dealt solely with interest margins. Applying the seminal Ho–Saunders model (JFQA, 1981) to a multi-output framework, we show that the relationship between bank margins and market power varies significantly across bank specializations. In this context, European banks are a better laboratory than US banks, since they have generally enjoyed a more flexible regulatory environment in which to provide a wider range of services. Using accounting margins and New Empirical Industrial Organization margins, we find that market power increases as output becomes more diversified towards non-traditional activities in European banking.     

Bank panics and the endogeneity of central banking

Central banking is intimately related to liquidity provision to banks during times of crisis, the lender-of-last-resort function. This activity arose endogenously in certain banking systems. Depositors lack full information about the value of bank assets, so that during macroeconomic downturns they monitor their banks by withdrawing in a banking panic. The likelihood of panics depends on the industrial organization of the banking system. Banking systems with well-diversified big banks are less prone to inefficient bank runs because diversification alleviates the information asymmetry. In addition, big banks can self-monitor through publicly observable branch closure. Systems of many small banks form incentive-compatible bank coalitions to emulate the big banks during times of crisis. Such coalitions improve efficiency by monitoring member banks and issuing money that is a kind of deposit insurance—a precursor of central banking.     

SME financing and the choice of lending technology in Italy: Complementarity or substitutability?

This paper investigates SME financing in Italy. The literature distinguishes between two main different lending technologies (LTs) for SMEs: transactional and relationship LTs. We find that banks lend to SMEs by using both LTs together, independently of the size and proximity of borrowers. Moreover, we show that the use of soft information decreases the probability of firms being credit rationed. Finally, we find that more soft information is produced when the bank uses relationship LT as primary technology individually or coupled with transactional LT. Our results support the view that LTs can be complementary, but reject the hypothesis that substitutability among LTs is somehow possible for outsiders by means of hardening of soft information.