Finance and growth: Time series evidence on causality

This paper re-examines the empirical relationship between financial and economic development while (i) taking into account their dynamics and (ii) differentiating between stock market and banking sector development. We study the cointegration and causality between finance and growth for 22 advanced economies. Our time series analysis suggests that causality patterns depend on whether countries’ financial development stems from the stock market or the banking sector. We show that stock market development tends to cause economic development, while a reverse causality is mostly present between banking sector development and output growth. These findings indicate that the direction of causality between finance and growth is likely to be different at high levels of development.     

Investor wealth,the IMF,and the Asian crisis

This study further investigates the impact of IMF actions on stock markets during the Asian crisis. Extending two earlier studies by Kho and Stulz (2000) and Evrensel and Kutan (2007), we investigate the long-term shareholder wealth impact of IMF actions and programs on both financial and real sector returns in the stock markets of Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea. We perform a series of tests employed in Cornett and Tehranian (1989, 1990) that incorporate heteroscedasticity across sectors and contemporaneous dependence of the disturbances. The findings indicate that IMF actions regarding liquidity disbursement or liquidity concerns in markets are the most important events affecting abnormal returns and hence investor wealth in both real and financial sectors. However, the response of the financial sector to IMF actions is much stronger than that of the real sector. In addition, the results suggest moral hazard effects during the Asian crisis in all the three countries.     

Financial System Size in Transition Economies: The Effect of Legal Origin

Gorton and Winton (1998) link the size of the banking system in transition economies to financial stability. We provide empirical evidence consistent with their notion that the size of the financial system will be smaller in these countries. This effect holds even after controlling for the effect of rule of law and/or legal origin, and other relevant variables. Transition economy status, thus adds additional explanatory power to traditional law and finance explanations of financial development. Classification of transition economies by legal origin reveals that Russian legal origin has a strong negative effect on financial development. Regression analysis shows claims on the private sector/gross domestic product (GDP) to be 46 to 60 percentage points lower in the countries of the former Soviet Union, and 23 to 39 percentage points lower in non-Soviet transition economies compared to countries of English legal origin. There is a positive relation between claims on the private sector and the rule of law for a broad cross section of countries.     

Stock markets,credit markets,and technology-led growth

The high-tech sector accounts for the majority of corporate innovation in modern economies. In a sample of 38 countries, we document a strong positive relation between the initial size of the country's high-tech sector and subsequent rates of GDP and total factor productivity growth. We also find a strong positive connection between a country's equity (but not credit) market development and the size of its high-tech sector. Our main difference-in-differences estimates show that better developed stock markets support faster growth of innovative-intensive, high-tech industries. The main channels for this effect are higher rates of productivity and faster growth in the number of new high-tech firms. Credit market development fosters growth in industries that rely on external finance for physical capital accumulation but is unimportant for growth in innovation-intensive industries. These findings show that stock markets and credit markets play important but distinct roles in supporting economic growth. Stock markets are uniquely suited for financing technology-led growth, a particularly important concern for advanced economies.     

Corruption and stock market development: Developing vs. developed economies

This paper looks at the impact of corruption on stock market development, emphasizing the difference between developing and developed economies and the role corruption may play in preventing firms from listing. Guided by a theoretical model that explains why corruption’s impact on stock market development may differ, we use a sample of 87 economies worldwide over the period 1995–2017 to test for that difference. For the full sample we find no evidence that corruption has a significant effect on stock market development, but this changes when we split the sample into two groups: high-income and low-income countries. For the subsample of poorer (developing) countries, the corruption-stock market development relationship remains insignificant or weak. For the subsample of high-income (developed) countries, however, we find a significant relationship between lower levels of corruption and stock market capitalization as a share of gross domestic product. Our results further indicate that higher levels of income and investment reduce the impact of that relationship. Our results are robust to alternative estimation specifications and confirm the importance of macroeconomic fundamentals (i.e., income, investment, domestic credit, and macroeconomic stability) for the development of stock markets. In particular, those fundamentals seem more important for developing economies before reduced corruption will have as much (if any) of an impact.     

Financial crisis,structure and reform

In this study, we examine the relationship between the structure of financial systems and financial crises. Using cross-country data on financial structures and crises, we find that there is a significant short-term reversal in development of the banking sector and the stock market during both bank crises and market crashes, with the corporate bond market moving in the same direction as bank credit. However, the results are significant for countries with market-based financial systems but not for countries with bank-based financial systems. Emerging markets have mainly bank-based financial systems, which may explain why these markets require more time to recover from economic downturns after a financial crisis. Therefore, we argue that governments should emphasize a balanced financial system structure as it helps countries to recover from financial crises more quickly compared with countries that lack such balanced structures.     

GLOBALIZATION OF CAPITAL MARKETS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

This article has three basic aims: (1) to analyze the impact of the opening of their capital markets on the economies of host countries; (2) to investigate the causes of the Asian financial crisis; and (3) to evaluate the likely effects of the South Korean government's recent attempts to restructure its corporate sector. Although the recent Asian financial crisis has led some to question the merits of open capital markets and to call for regulatory restraints on capital flows across international borders, the scientific evidence suggests that the opening of stock markets to foreign investors has been largely beneficial for emerging economies. On average, stock market liberalization has been accompanied by increases in stock prices and reductions in stock return volatility, reductions in inflation, and reductions in the rate of currency depreciation. Much of the blame for the Asian currency crises is assigned to Asian policymakers' futile attempts to defy market forces by trying to maintain their currencies at artificially high levels. But a more fundamental cause of Asia's economic problems has been the widespread value destruction by Asian corporations, which has led to a lower value for the overall economy and weakened the banking sector. The government-directed banking systems and weak corporate governance structures (including managerial incentives to increase size and market share at the expense of shareholders) that characterize most Asian economies have resulted in systematic overinvestment, bloated payrolls, and sharp declines in corporate profitability. While applauding most of the Korean government's recent measures to reform the economy, the article expresses skepticism about the government-mandated restructuring of the chaebol known as the “big deal.” Rather than trying to direct the process of restructuring, Korean policymakers should limit their efforts to improving the market mechanism by increasing competition in the markets for capital, corporate control, and goods and services. The Korean market for corporate control transactions could be greatly improved by increasing the efficiency of bankruptcy proceedings and by allowing hostile takeovers by foreign as well as domestic investors. To increase the productivity of capital, Asian companies should seek to realign managerial with shareholder interests by tying compensation to measures of value creation like EVA.     

The impact of terrorism on financial markets: An empirical study

The main focus of this paper is to study empirically the impact of terrorism on the behavior of stock, bond and commodity markets. We consider terrorist events that took place in 25 countries over an 11-year time period and implement our analysis using different methods: an event-study approach, a non-parametric methodology, and a filtered GARCH-EVT approach. In addition, we compare the effect of terrorist attacks on financial markets with the impact of other extreme events such as financial crashes and natural catastrophes. The results of our analysis show that a non-parametric approach is the most appropriate method among the three for analyzing the impact of terrorism on financial markets. We demonstrate the robustness of this method when interest rates, equity market integration, spillover and contemporaneous effects are controlled. We show how the results of this approach can be used for investors’ portfolio diversification strategies against terrorism risk.     

Impact of financial market uncertainty and macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets

This paper examines the impact of global financial market uncertainty and domestic macroeconomic factors on stock–bond correlation in emerging markets. In particular, by applying the wavelet analysis approach, we are able to examine stock–bond correlations over different time horizons in ten emerging markets. We find that stock–bond correlation patterns vary significantly between the time horizons. In particular, the correlation in short horizon changes the sign rapidly showing sustainable negative episodes while the correlation in long horizon stays positive most of the time. The most important factor influencing stock–bond correlation in short horizon is the monetary policy stance, while the factors with the greatest long-term impact are inflation and stock market uncertainty. Finally, global stock market uncertainty plays a more significant role than global bond market uncertainty in explaining stock–bond correlations in emerging markets.     

Sovereign bonds and flight to safety: Implications of the COVID-19 crisis for sovereign debt markets in the G-7 and E-7 economies

This study investigates the implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for sovereign debt in the G-7 and E-7 economies and explores the notion of sovereign bonds as a safe haven. Using a set of panel regression and dynamic connectedness TVP-VAR approaches, our results reveal that the impact of COVID-19 global case numbers on sovereign bonds has been contingent on the level of the country's financial and economic development. More precisely, our findings suggest that G-7 countries, where economic development is typically higher, have seen a negative effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yield: sovereign 10-year bond yields declined as the number of COVID-19 global confirmed cases increased in G-7 countries. However, in E-7 countries, where economic growth and development are typically lower, sovereign bond yields responded positively to the initial increase in COVID-19 global confirmed case numbers, but this positive effect is not statistically significant. We also find that the G-7 and E-7 economies have a strong time-varying connectedness in relation to their bond markets and this effect is more pronounced in G-7 economies. Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility is likely to be the strongest predictor of total connectedness. Concomitantly, we shed new light on the predictive power of the number of COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths, and the Daily Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker on the interdependence of these sovereign bond markets. Overall, this paper highlights the heterogeneous effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on sovereign bond yields in G-7 and E-7 countries and the notion that the developed economies, with their developed sovereign bond markets, are still seen as a safe haven during times of crisis.     

What drives U.S. financial sector volatility? A Bayesian model averaging perspective

We investigate the driving forces behind the quarterly stock price volatility of firms in the U.S. financial sector over the period from 1990 to 2017. The driving forces represent a set of 28 economic indicators that are routinely used to detect financial instability and crises and correspond to the development of the financial, monetary, real, trade and fiscal sector as well as to the development of the bond and equity markets. The dimensionality and model choice uncertainty are addressed using Bayesian model averaging, which led to the identification of only seven variables that tend to systematically drive the stock price volatility of financial firms in the U.S.: housing prices, short-term interest rates, net national savings, default yield spread, and three credit market variables. We also confirm that our results are not an artefact of volatility associated with market downturns (for negative semi-volatility), as the results are similar even when market volatility is associated with market upsurge (positive semi-volatility). Given the identified drivers, our results provide supporting empirical evidence that dampening credit cycles might lead to decreased volatility in the financial sector.     

Firm survival and financial development: Evidence from a panel of emerging Asian economies

Using a panel of five Asian economies - Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand - over the period 1995-2007 we analyze the links between firm survival and financial development. We find that traditionally used measures of financial development play an important role in influencing firm survival. When stock markets become larger or more liquid firms’ survival chances improve. On the contrary, we show that higher levels of financial intermediation can increase firm failures. We also find that the beneficial effects of stock market development are more pronounced during the later years of our sample, while the adverse effects of bank intermediation have declined over time. Finally, large firms are more likely to benefit from developments in financial markets compared to small firms.     

Fiscal Rules and Government Financing Costs

This paper assesses the effect of fiscal rules on sovereign bond spreads over the short and medium term, for 34 advanced countries and 19 emerging market economies, over the period 1980–2016. Our results, based on impulse response functions, show that the dynamic impact of fiscal rules on sovereign yield spreads is negative and statistically significant, at around 1.2–1.8 percentage points, implying lower government borrowing costs. This result stems essentially from the advanced economies subsample. We also find that more fiscally responsible countries are the ones for which a fiscal rule reduces the government's borrowing costs. Moreover, in times of recession, a fiscal rule leads financial markets to reduce the risk premiums on government bonds. Finally, when it comes to design features of fiscal rules, independent monitoring of compliance to the rule, done outside government, also reduces sovereign spreads.     

Financial markets and economic performances: Empirical evidence from five industrialized economies

This paper investigates the nature of the links between the development of financial markets and economic performances in five advanced economies. The vector error correction model (VECM) establishes the quantitative importance of long-run relationships among three financial variables and the real output. Granger's causality test then suggests short-run causality between financial markets and the real sector as well as the substitution effect of the individual sectors in the financial market of each country. The results support the supply-leading hypothesis that the development of financial markets spurs growth for all countries except for Canada. The demand-driven hypothesis is confirmed for Canada only in the short run.     

Stock markets, banks, and economic growth: Empirical evidence from the MENA region

Over the last four decades, a wide theoretical debate is concerned with the fundamental relationship between financial development and economic growth. Recent studies shed some light on the simultaneous effect of banks and financial system development on growth rather than a separate impact. The empirical study is conducted using an unbalanced panel data from 11 MENA region countries. Econometric issues will be based on estimation of a dynamic panel model with GMM estimators. Thus, peculiarities of MENA region countries will be detected. The empirical results reinforce the idea of no significant relationship between banking and stock market development, and growth. The association between bank development and economic growth is even negative after controlling for stock market development. This lack of relationship must be linked to underdeveloped financial systems in the MENA region that hamper economic growth. Then, more needs to be done to reinforce the institutional environment and improve the functioning of the banking sector in the MENA region. Based on these results, other regions at the same stage of financial development such as Africa, Eastern Europe or Latin America should improve the functioning of their financial system in order to prevent their economies from the negative impact of a shaky financial market.     

Diversification in euro area stock markets: Country versus industry

The harmonization of fiscal and economic policy within the European Monetary Union (EMU) has had a considerable impact on the economies of member countries. In particular, several studies indicate that the proceeding economic integration among euro area countries has important consequences for the factors driving asset returns in financial markets. However, these studies rely on one specific methodology [Heston, S.L., Rouwenhorst, K.G., 1994. Does industrial structure explain the benefits of international diversification? Journal of Financial Economics 36, 3–27; Heston, S.L., Rouwenhorst, K.G., 1995. Industry and country effects in international stock returns. Journal of Portfolio Management Spring, 53–58], that has recently been criticized as too restrictive. This study adopts a mean–variance approach instead. Using recent euro area stock markets data, we find strong evidence that diversification over industries yields more efficient portfolios than diversification over countries.     

Illiquidity,return and risk in G7 stock markets: Interdependencies and spillovers

Trading activity in G7 stock markets reflects not only the macroeconomic and financial impact of these G7 economies in international economic growth, but also their financial interdependence. While this nexus of major stock markets has been explored in terms of volatility and return spillovers, there has been no combined analysis of return, volatility and illiquidity spillovers. We study illiquidity spillovers because they are transmissions of trading activity and, thereof, transmissions of information and market sentiment. We find that the dynamics of international stock markets are characterized by persistent illiquidity and also that illiquidity shocks are significantly correlated across markets. Furthermore, we discover Granger causal associations between risk, return and illiquidity across G7 stock market and also within each stock market. Our findings bear significance for the regulation of international financial markets and also for international portfolio diversification.     

Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility

In this paper we analyze the cycles of the stock markets in four Latin American and two Asian countries, and we compare their characteristics. We divide our sample in two subperiods in order to account for differences induced by the financial liberalization processes of the early 1990s. We find that cycles in emerging countries tend to have shorter duration and larger amplitude and volatility than in developed countries. However, after financial liberalization Latin American stock markets have behaved more similarly to stock markets in developed countries whereas Asian countries have become more dissimilar. Concordance of cycles across markets has increased significantly over time, especially for Latin American countries after liberalization.     

Market Impact on financial market integration: Cross-quantilogram analysis of the global impact of the euro

We contribute to the literature by providing a more comprehensive understanding of the impact the euro has had on financial market integration with economies of different characteristics outside and within the European market via inclusion of market conditions influence on the level of financial integration. Our paper employs the recently developed cross-quantilogram (Han et al., 2016) approach to examine quantile dependence between the conditional stock return distributions of Germany and the UK with that of three common currency groups within EMU (Finland, France, and Italy), two global leading markets (the US and Japan), and two of the most promising emerging markets (China and India). We find three key results. First, both the EU membership and the common currency union affect the degree of financial market integration. Nevertheless, disentangling the effects of EU membership from the common currency shows that the common currency group has an additional impact on financial integration, as the degree of dependence is stronger in the common currency group than in the sovereign currency group and other groups. Second, there is a heterogeneous dependence structure, which is strongly observed for the UK and German stock returns with that of developed (the US and Japan) and emerging markets (India and China). Third, cross-quantile correlations change over time, especially in low and high quantiles, indicating that they are prone to jumps and discontinuities in the dependence structure. As far as we are aware, this is the first study in this field employing a cross-quantilogram method to examine the impact of different market conditions on the correlations, making our study a pioneer in the field of stock market integration.     

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on transmission of monetary policy to financial markets

This study uses event-study methodology to estimate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets, based on a sample of 37 countries with severe pandemics. Financial markets include government bond, stock, exchange rate and credit default swap markets. The results suggest that the emergence of pandemic has weakened the transmission of monetary policy to financial markets to a more significant degree. During our sample period following the outbreak of pandemic, neither conventional nor unconventional monetary policies have significant effects on all four of the financial markets. Of course, the unconventional monetary policies are slightly more effective as they can affect the stock and exchange rate markets to some extent. Therefore, in the post-pandemic period, if the monetary policy is used to stimulate financial markets, stronger policy adjustments, or other macro policies such as fiscal policies, may be needed to achieve the desired effect