政府控股对商业银行风险承担的影响--基于国际银行业的证据北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文选取2005-2012年涵盖174个国家3047家商业银行的非平衡面板数据,将发达国家和发展中国家进行对比,并结合金融危机的背景,从全球视角探究政府控股对商业银行风险承担水平的影响。结果发现,发展中国家政府控股会降低商业银行的风险承担水平,提升银行的稳定性,但金融危机爆发后,政府控股银行的收益波动性和股本波动性反而增加,即风险承担水平增加。相比之下,发达国家政府控股虽然会降低银行的收益波动性和股本波动性,即收益波动风险降低,会增加银行的破产风险;另外,在金融危机前后,发达国家政府控股对于商业银行风险承担水平的影响并无明显差异。本文的研究结论说明,发展中国家和发达国家政府控股商业银行对银行风险承担水平的影响大相径庭。据此,我们提出政策建议,发展中国家政府控股商业银行具有必要性,但是在金融危机期间,政府需要兼顾稳定经济大局和银行系统的稳定;发达国家应避免控股商业银行,避免干预银行的市场化行为。     

互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响研究——基于中国30家商业银行的实证分析

为了研究互联网金融对商业银行风险承担的影响,本文以2009—2018年互联网金融对中国30家典型商业银行风险承担影响的数据为基础,运用动态面板广义矩估计方法对互联网金融对我国商业银行风险承担的影响进行了研究与分析。结果表明:(1)互联网金融对我国商业银行风险承担的影响呈现倒U形分布,即互联网金融发展初期通过抢占市场份额,加剧了行业竞争,抢占了商业银行利润,进而加大了商业银行风险承担的成本;但随着商业银行对互联网前沿技术的不断融合、金融产品服务的创新以及风险管控水平的提升,商业银行风险承担的成本下降。(2)面对互联网金融的冲击,不同类型商业银行对风险承担反应具有异质性:在宏观层面,大型国有银行拥有庞大的资产规模和政策保障,对其冲击反应较为滞后;股份制银行和城市商业银行缺乏上述优势,对其冲击反映较为敏感,但股份制银行后期风险承担显著下降;农村商业银行因主要服务于乡村建设,受其影响较为有限。在微观层面,面对互联网金融的冲击,与资本充足率和流动性水平较低的大型商业银行相比,资本充足率和流动性水平较高的小规模商业银行风险承担显著增加。     

利率市场化、股权结构与银行风险承担行为

股权结构会改变银行风险承担行为,而利率市场化则会影响二者关联的强度。本文基于2006—2015年我国上市商业银行面板数据,运用GMM估计方法,从股权集中度、股权属性、股权制衡度三个维度考察了股权结构对商业银行风险承担行为的影响,并在此基础上分析了利率市场化对二者关系的调节作用。结果表明,股权集中度与银行风险承担呈显著正向关系。股权集中度越高,其承担的风险越高;股权制衡度与银行风险承担水平呈显著负相关。中小股东对大股东的制衡能够削弱银行风险承担;国家控股和具有政府背景的银行与其他银行相比,风险承担意愿更强;利率市场化有助于弱化股权集中度和股权性质对商业银行风险承担行为的正向作用,同时强化了股权制衡能力对商业银行风险承担行为的负向作用。基于此,本文建议不断优化银行股权结构、进一步推进利率市场化,以更合理地管理商业银行风险承担行为。     

利率市场化与银行风险承担——基于结构冲击的视角

经济新常态下,利率市场化的加速推进和风险的持续暴露是我国银行业所处环境的两大显著特征。本文采用中国16家上市银行2010年第一季度至2015年第一季度的面板数据,应用随机效应模型,分析了利率市场化对银行风险承担的影响,并从宏观的经济结构、中观的社会融资结构和微观银行资产负债表结构三个层面,对其影响机制进行了分析。研究结果表明:利率市场化会增加银行的风险承担,但随着利率市场化的加速推进,其负向冲击会逐渐减小;货币政策和银行监管政策的协调作用缓解了利率市场化对银行风险承担的负向冲击。从影响机制来看,利率市场化对经济增长结构性减速和社会融资结构表外化的冲击会增加银行的风险承担,而利率市场化对银行资产负债表结构的冲击会减少银行的风险承担。三种结构冲击效应的叠加,显著增加了银行的风险承担。     

非常规货币政策与银行风险承担

近些年来,多国中央银行相继实施了非常规货币政策.商业银行作为货币政策传导的主要媒介,非常规货币政策对银行风险承担将产生一定的影响.基于2014—2018年我国103家商业银行数据,实证检验了非常规货币政策对银行风险承担的影响及其中介传导机制.研究发现:扩张性的非常规货币政策会增加银行风险承担;非常规货币政策通过影响银行融资活动对其风险承担产生影响.国有银行受非常规货币政策影响更加显著.     

资本约束、银行风险承担与经济资本——基于中国53家商业银行的经验研究北大核心CSSCISSCI

本文建立了一个资本约束加强与银行风险承担关系的理论模型,使用2009年至2013年我国53家商业银行的财务数据,研究资本约束对银行风险承担的门限效应,并对商业银行内部经济资本水平进行分析。研究发现,资本数量约束和资本质量约束对银行风险承担均存在门限效应。资本数量方面,资本充足率的门限值为11.95%。资本质量方面,核心资本占总资本比例的门限值为69.93%。当资本充足率和核心资本占比低于相应的门限值时,加强资本约束会降低银行风险承担,反之则会增加或不能显著影响银行风险承担。此外,不同类型商业银行对资本约束的敏感度存在明显差异。     

中国商业银行的风险承担与效率——货币政策视角

本文利用无效率项非单调变化且存在异方差的随机前沿模型测算了我国商业银行1994-2013年的效率,并从货币政策的角度,分析了我国银行风险承担与效率的关系。如果把没有扣除不良贷款的总贷款作为产出,会系统性高估成本效率、低估利润效率;如果不考虑资本投入,成本效率和利润效率均会被高估;年均成本效率和利润效率的走势基本一致,且与我国银行制度改革、宏观经济周期波动较为吻合。我国不仅存在银行风险承担渠道,而且具有连续性和顺周期性;货币政策不仅直接影响银行风险承担与效率,而且通过风险承担渠道间接影响效率。我国银行风险承担对效率的影响并非单调,而是存在倒u型关系,从提升银行效率的角度来看,存在最优的风险承担。风险承担的增加有利于利润效率的提升,同时利润效率的提升反过来促使银行承担更多的风险。     

投行业务轻型化发展策略

<正>随着我国经济进入新发展阶段,经济金融结构特征正在由“重”变“轻”。产业结构从传统工业向以创新高科技产业为代表的轻型产业转变,金融业正从传统的高资本消耗、高成本投入的粗放重型经营模式向内涵集约式的轻型发展模式转变。随着经济结构向轻型化转变、消费升级以及科技与金融的融合,商业银行的传统盈利增长点和内部资本积累能力大大削弱,商业银行必须顺应轻型化时代潮流,以轻型银行为方向,实现战略性转型升级。商业银行投行业务作为商业银行对公业务轻型化转型的发力点,应该走在战略转型的前列,这也是新发展阶段的必然要求。     

我国商业银行效率与风险承担关系研究——基于随机前沿法的实证研究

控制风险与提高效率是商业银行经营与管理面临的两大问题,本文采用随机前沿法(SFA)测算了2003~2013年我国商业银行的利润效率,并分析其动态变化及原因,然后研究了银行效率和风险承担的关系。实证研究发现,商业银行效率与风险承担具有显著正相关关系,商业银行适度增加风险承担有助于提高银行效率;另一方面,产权制度和宏观环境对银行效率也有一定影响。     

上市银行高管过度激励与风险承担水平的实证研究

本文基于我国14家上市银行2007-2013年的数据,通过考察不同性质银行的高管所面临的过度激励与风险承担之间的关系,检验了我国商业银行高管薪酬激励机制的有效性.实证结果表明:第一,我国上市商业银行高管薪酬存在过度激励,且过度激励会造成银行风险承担水平的提高.第二,不同性质银行高管的过度激励对风险承担水平的影响是不同的.国有控股银行高管若受到过度激励,有可能会盲目扩大经营规模,增加银行的经营风险;而非国有控股银行的高管相对而言,这种激励作用会较弱.为此,要进一步推进商业银行高管薪酬改革,防止过度激励.尤其是国有控股银行高管薪酬机制设计要更加关注风险因素.     

Bayesian Premium Rating with Latent Structure

We propose a fully Bayesian approach to non-life risk premium rating, based on hierarchical models with latent variables for both claim frequency and claim size. Inference is based on the joint posterior distribution and is performed by Markov Chain Monte Carlo. Rather than plug-in point estimates of all unknown parameters, we take into account all sources of uncertainty simultaneously when the model is used to predict claims and estimate risk premiums. Several models are fitted to both a simulated dataset and a small portfolio regarding theft from cars. We show that interaction among latent variables can improve predictions significantly. We also investigate when interaction is not necessary. We compare our results with those obtained under a standard generalized linear model and show through numerical simulation that geographically located and spatially interacting latent variables can successfully compensate for missing covariates. However, when applied to the real portfolio data, the proposed models are not better than standard models due to the lack of spatial structure in the data.     

Disclosure of government financial information and the cost of local government’s debt financing——Empirical evidence from provincial investment bonds for urban construction

China’s slowing economic growth and rapid urbanization have made local government debt financing a significant issue.This study uses a sample of China’s provinc...     

The deliberation around accounting techniques: accounting for depreciation and foreign exchange in an Indian jute company, 1870-1900

This paper examines the way two accounting techniques, namely depreciation and foreign exchange, were deliberated on, between 1870 and 1900, in an Indian jute company whose shareholders resided in the UK. The arena for these deliberations was the conflictual relationship between controlling and non-controlling shareholders as to how best to account for depreciation and foreign exchange especially when the particular accountings affected distributional issues such as the dividend decision. The purpose of this paper is to analyse and explain the processes by which a company's accounting practices emerge and develop as a contest between different interests. Accounting framed the parameters of the deliberations and provided the language of power and dissent. The paper uses a rich archive that includes narrative and accounting material.     

Short-sale refinancing and price adjustment speed to bad news: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Short selling may accelerate stock price adjustment to negative news. However, the literature provides mixed evidence for this prediction. Using short-sale refinancing and a staggered difference-in-differences (DID) model, this paper explores the effect of short selling on stock price adjustment. Our results show that (1) short-sale refinancing improves the speed of stock price adjustment to negative news. This result holds after we control for endogeneity. (2) The positive relationship between short-sale refinancing and stock price adjustment speed is significant in subsamples of stocks with higher earnings management or lower accuracy of analyst forecasts, indicating that firms with more opaque information are more likely to be targeted by short sellers. In subsamples of stocks with a higher ownership concentration or lower ownership by institutional investors, short selling is more likely to increase the speed of stock price adjustment, indicating that ownership structure may influence negative news mining. (3) As short-sale refinancing exacerbates the absorption of bad news by stock prices, it increases crash risk. This study enriches the research on the economic consequences of short selling and provides empirical evidence supporting regulations on short selling in China.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

【正】The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing ...     

Pricing Dynamic Insurance Risks Using the Principle of Equivalent Utility

We introduce an expected utility approach to price insurance risks in a dynamic financial market setting. The valuation method is based on comparing the maximal expected utility functions with and without incorporating the insurance product, as in the classical principle of equivalent utility. The pricing mechanism relies heavily on risk preferences and yields two reservation prices - one each for the underwriter and buyer of the contract. The framework is rather general and applies to a number of applications that we extensively analyze.     

Guidelines for Manuscripts Submitted to The China Journal of Accounting Research

正The China Journal of Accounting Research"CJAR"(ISSN 1755-3091)publishes quarterly.It contains peer-reviewed articles and commentaries on accounting,auditing and corporate governance issues that relate to the greater China region.We welcome the submission of both theoretical and empirical research papers pertinent to researchers,regulators and practitioners.Authors should note:     

The China puzzle: Opportunities for accounting research

How can China achieve phenomenal economic growth despite what is considered as 'weak' institutions in market-based economies? Xu(2011) provides a framework to u...     

International harmonization of Japanese accounting standards

Historically, Japanese accounting standards have been quite distinct from International Accounting Standards (IASs) which have been perceived as being modelled on British-American accounting standards. However, in the 1990s, after the publication of E32 in 1989 and the IASC-IOSCO Agreement in 1995, the Business Accounting Deliberation Committee (BADC), the standards-setting body in Japan, has pursued a policy of harmonization with IASs. Accounting standards relating to consolidated financial statements of companies that make cross-border offerings of securities or operate worldwide are being revised drastically. This paper focuses on the development of international accounting harmonization and its impact on Japan.