我国股票市场有效性变动趋势研究——基于上证50样本公司相关性数据

有效市场理论认为股价能够反应市场上的一切信息,股票价格应该在宏观经济因素的影响下围绕经营业绩波动,因而股票的价格与业绩会呈现出正相关关系。基于此整理出A股中具有代表性的上证50中的21家公司的股票,以股票市场分置改革前后为界进行相关性分析,结果表明,在股权分置改革前的2004年至2006年样本股的公司业绩与股票价格不呈现显著相关关系。但在股权分置改革后,2014年至2016年股票业绩与价格的相关关系显著增强。同时,本文基于上证50的上市公司通过如何加强我国股票市场的有效性也给出了相关建议。     

对中国双重上市公司股票价差的再思考

本文以在大陆、香港同时上市的公司为研究对象,首次将双重上市公司的发展历程纳入研究中,并着重探讨股权分置改革在其中的作用。研究结论如下:首先,在股权分置改革之后,A上述结果没有发生明显的改变。其次,在双重上市公司发展的不同阶段,两地股票价格的差异有不同程度的改变,鉴于第二阶段在股权分置改革提出之后,侧面验证了股权分置改革使两地股票价格差异逐步缩小。     

中国双重上市公司股票价格差异与联动性研究

本文运用2000年1月1日至2015年12月31日的日度、周度及月度数据,对中国双重上市公司的股票价格差异以及股票市场联动性问题进行分析。研究结果显示,首先,随着A股股票市场流通股数量的增加,特别是在股权分置改革之后,两地股票价格差异不断缩小。其次,A股和H股股票收益率受到两地股票市场的影响存在差异,其中,在股权分置改革之前,A股股票收益率主要受到A股股票市场的影响,而H股股票收益率则受到两地股票市场的共同影响;在股权分置改革之后,A股股票收益率开始受到H股股票市场的影响,H股股票受到两地股票市场的影响也在不断加强。     

股权分置改革试点评价:基于博弈论的分析

股权分置改革试点使上市公司非流通股股东和流通股股东围绕改革中的利益分割展开激烈的博弈。基于各自利益最大化的选择，非流通股股东将倾向提供素质一般或较差、发展前最不明朗或暗淡、股票价格对公司内在价值存在显著高估的公司进行试点；流通股股东期望同非流通股股东裁上述公司的试点博穿中获得最大的利益补偿。稳妥推进股权分置试点，需要改变市场不合理预期．积极鼓励蓝筹类上市公司先行试点。     

非流通股价值评估的再研究

本文以152家进行股权分置改革的上市公司的公开数据资料为样本,使用Excel软件与SPSS 12．0统计软件进行了相关分析,确定股票市价与市净率之间存在着十分显著的线性相关关系,而后得出了非流通股价值评估的回归模型。根据模型,本文还对股权分置改革中上市公司非流通股定价的合理性进行了检验。     

股票期权:一把双刃剑

我国的股权分置改革进行得如火如荼，已经有1／3的上市公司完成了股权分置改革。在此基础上，为了通过改善公司治理结构来提高上市公司质量，证监会在2005年12月31日发布了《上市公司股权激励管理办法（试行）》，规定已完成股权分置改革的上市公司可以实施股权激励，建立健全激励与约束机制。股权激励是指上市公司以本公司股票为标的，对其董事、监事、高级管理人员及其他员工进行的长期激励，包括限制性股票、股票期权及其他方式的股权激励。     

股权分置改革效果的实证分析

股权分置改革是我国资本市场的一次根本性改革,它使以往不能上市流通的股票获得可流通性,重建公司治理的共同利益基础,更好地实现国有资本的保值增值以及包括中小投资者在内的各方利益的共赢。本文通过对2006～2008年期间进行股权分置改革的部分上市公司进行统计,试图分析股权分置改革的市场效应以及次贷危机对改革的影响。得出如下结论:(1)股权分置改革的市场效果是积极的,能带给投资者显著的超额收益;(2)股改对价支付率和股东对方案的支持率与上市公司股票的市场效应呈显著正相关;(3)次贷危机严重影响了股权分置改革的市场效应。     

股权分置、公司治理与股利分配决策：现金股利还是股票股利？

以2004~2007中国上市公司为样本,应用LOGISTIC回归对-股权分置改革前后我国上市公司股利分配决策进行理论与实证分析。结果表明,股权分置改革后,我国上市公司发放股票股利呈现增多的趋势,第一大股东、第二大股东持股比例越高,以及董事会人数越多,公司越倾向于现金股利分配,但机构投资者持股比例越高,越倾向于发放股票股利。同时,企业成长性强的公司倾向于发放股票股利,而现金流量好的公司往往不发放股票股利,企业规模与股票分配决策无关。     

制度环境、股权分置改革与决策有用性

基于中国证券市场股权分置改革的制度背景,结合地区制度环境,从会计规则内外部执行机制耦合的角度,运用盈余信息含量和价值相关性的经验模型,本文首次研究了制度环境与股权分置改革两者共同对会计信息决策有用性的影响。研究发现:地区制度环境越好、股改对价越低的上市公司,其会计信息的决策有用性越高。本文对国内关于股权分置改革的会计信息经济后果研究进行了一定程度的拓展,并结合地区制度环境对会计信息质量的考察提供了一种崭新的研究视角。     

股权分置改革政策效果的实证检验

本文利用2005年至2006年沪深A股上市公司的有关数据,对股权分置改革的政策效果进行了实证考察。研究发现,股权分置改革一方面有效地降低了控股股东集团净占用上市公司资金的可能性,另一方面显著地提高了上市公司的市场价值,并且这一影响具有一定的持续性。实证研究还发现,不同的初始条件会影响到股权分置改革效果,改革的政策效果在股权分置改革之前股权结构最不合理的公司中最为明显。     

Split Share Structure Reform,corporate governance,and the foreign share discount puzzle in China

We examine the impact of the Split Share Structure Reform on the well-known foreign share discount puzzle in China. Existing literature confirms that foreign investors are more concerned about insider expropriation because of their information disadvantage relative to domestic investors. The split share structure of the ownership of Chinese listed firms created a conflict of interests between state and private shareholders. Since, before the reform, state shareholders held restricted shares that denied them any wealth effect from share price movements, they had a limited incentive to work with private shareholders to ensure that managers maximized the stock market value of the firm. By abolishing the trading restrictions for state shareholders, this reform has increased the incentive alignment between state and private shareholders, encouraging them to monitor managers. If foreign investors’ concerns over the corporate governance implications of the split share structure at least partly contributed to their discounting of Chinese listed firms, then this discount should be reduced following the reform. Indeed, our evidence confirms this prediction, especially among Chinese listed firms with more state ownership or restricted shares. Our findings imply that this significant institutional reform of the Chinese stock market has benefitted minority investors.     

The impact of state ownership on share price informativeness: The case of the Split Share Structure Reform in China

This study examines the impact of state ownership on share price informativeness using the unique setting of the Split Share Structure Reform in China. This reform abolishes the trading restriction on shares held mainly by state shareholders. In doing so, it renders state shareholders' wealth more sensitive to share price movements and decreases their conflict of interests with private shareholders. This change is expected to strengthen the corporate governance incentives of state shareholders and reduce the information asymmetry in Chinese listed firms. This prediction is confirmed through empirical evidence of increased share price informativeness among firms that are more sensitive to the impact of this reform, i.e. those with more state ownership or restricted shares. These findings imply that this reform benefits the information environment and minority shareholders in the Chinese stock market.     

股权分置改革前后A股IPO初始收益率的比较研究

本文采用股权分置改革前后的新股样本数据,对影响我国A股初始收益率的相关因素展开实证分析。研究发现,股权分置和发行管制是造成股权分置改革前A股IPO市场高初始收益率的根本原因,而在股权分置改革后,由于发行继续受到严格管制和投资者旧有定价理念及盈利模式的延续,新股的初始收益率仍然存在继续高企的制度基础和市场条件。因此,在股权分置改革后,管理层应进一步推进发行监管制度改革,实现股票供给市场化。     

限售股权定价的实证检验

我国上市公司的非流通股权实质为限售股权,股权分置改革改变了限售期的不确定性.通过对2004～2006年5月间326笔我国上市公司限售股权转让信息的研究发现:限售股股东向流通股股东支付对价是有理论和实证依据的,股权分置改革有利于国有资产保值增值.公司净资产、控制权收益以及公司流通股比例与限售股定价正相关.流动性约束与限售股定价负相关.受让方为非国有性质时,限售股转让相对价较低.股权转让方式、公司盈利能力等财务指标对限售股定价有一定影响.     

Managing for Value 2.0

In Finance 101, future corporate managers are taught that the social mission of public companies is to maximize their own longrun (or “intrinsic”) value by investing in all positive net present value (NPV) projects—that is, projects that are expected to earn at least their opportunity cost of capital. In markets that are reasonably efficient, provided management does an effective job of communicating its business plan and its progress in meeting its strategic goals, companies that follow this “NPV rule” can expect to be rewarded with increases in their share prices, at least in the longer run. But in the real world, of course, the pursuit of earnings and other “key performance indicators” (KPIs) often leads to managerial shortsightedness and destruction of value. To explain why—and to help companies avoid this outcome—this article presents an approach that envisions the intrinsic value of the company as an invisible “blue line” that moves through time on a graph, while showing observable key performance indicators, including revenue and earnings (and even the current stock price), as “red lines” on the same graph. The root of the problem is the failure of many companies to distinguish between their KPIs and the underlying drivers of value. KPIs, to be sure, are reflections of important aspects of the business; but however important and useful for strategic planning, they should not be used in performance evaluation or compensation plans for top management as surrogates for the underlying value of the business. Genuine value creation requires systems and a corporate culture that compel managers to pursue all projects that promise to earn the opportunity cost of capital—while treating earnings and other KPIs as means to creating value rather than ends in themselves.     

Share pledging,payout policy,and the value of cash holdings

Share pledging for insiders’ personal bank loans is associated with the agency problems of insider risk aversion and stock price crash risk. We examine the relation between insider share pledging and the value of cash holdings using the pledging data of listed firms in Taiwan. We find that the value of cash holdings is lower for pledging firms, especially for those that are relatively more risk averse. Pledging firms that repurchase shares have a higher marginal value of cash than those with other payout methods, likely due to the role of repurchases in reducing the stock price crash risk. Our results show how insiders’ personal financing incentives arising from share pledging would affect the value of cash holdings from the perspective of agency problems and payout policy.     

Value‐Added Per Share (VAPS): A Value‐Relevant Corporate Performance Metric

The authors introduce Value Added Per Share (VAPS) as a value‐relevant metric that is intended to complement earnings per share (EPS) in helping corporate managers and analysts understand and overcome the limitations of GAAP‐based reporting. VAPS discounts a firm's past and projected cash flows at its “cost of capital,” allowing companies to avoid the subjective accounting accrual process and other practices that often make EPS misleading. A company's VAPS is calculated in three main steps: (1) estimate the change in the capitalized value of after‐tax operating cash flow by taking the net change (plus or minus) of the firm's operating cash flow after taxes and dividing that number by the firm's cost of capital; (2) subtract total investment expenditures; and (3) divide by the number of shares outstanding. By capitalizing the change in after‐tax operating cash flow, one finds the net change in a firm's current operations value. By subtracting investment expenditures from that change in current operations value, the analyst gets a clearer picture of the benefit to shareholders net of the funds used to create that benefit. Consistent with basic theory, VAPS is positive when a company earns a return at least equal to its cost of capital and negative otherwise. Because of their fundamental differences, EPS and VAPS are likely to send different signals, and VAPS is expected to provide greater insight into stock price changes. The authors provide the findings of statistical tests showing the superior explanatory power of VAPS and recommend that companies publish statements of VAPS along with standard GAAP results, especially since the former can be readily calculated using the available income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement data.     

The peer effect of corporate financial decisions around split share structure reform in China

We examine the peer effects in financial decisions of Chinese listed companies for the period of 1998–2016 as well as around Split Share Structure Reform (SSSR). Consistent with the information‐based theory of learning, Chinese firms do adjust their capital structure in response to the changes in their peers’ market leverage ratios. The industries that are more competitive, with more young firms, and high leverage volatility tend to exhibit stronger peer effects. Within industries, the firms with lower market share and profits, paying no dividends, and being financially constrained mimic their peers more strongly than their counterparts. The evidence around the SSSR reveals that firms tend to follow their industry peers and leaders more closely in making financial decisions after the reform. Finally, the mimicking behavior in financial decisions enhances firm value in the long run and this finding is more evident after the reform.     

Tax Reform and Ex-Dividend Day Behavior

This paper investigates the effect of a major Canadian tax reform on the ex-dividend day behavior of companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that price changes on ex-dividend days reflect the relative taxation of dividends and capital gains for the “representative” investor, but are consistent with the hypothesis that ex-dividend day price behavior reflects short-term trading activities.     

企业金融化与劳动收入份额变动

本文从企业金融化的角度解释了上市公司劳动收入份额的变动,虽然基准结果显示,企业金融化能够促进劳动收入份额提升,但基于欧拉方程分解和中介变量法的验证发现,企业金融化一方面对工资水平产生正向溢出并提升了劳动收入份额,即表现出“盈利溢出”效应;另一方面,企业金融化却会抑制企业劳动生产率的改进,客观上造成劳动要素在生产中的地位上升进而带来劳动收入份额的提升,即表现出“技术抑制”效应。进一步分析发现,高管的劳动收入份额获益幅度小于普通员工(私营企业中更明显),说明经典的“委托-代理”框架并不能有效地解释中国企业的金融化行为;与此同时,企业金融化的影响和金融市场收益率具有强相关性,表明企业金融化的动力来自金融市场的收益激励。本文研究结论表明,企业金融化是企业在金融市场超额收益时期的“理性选择”,伴随金融市场回归并运行在合理区间,企业金融化对劳动收入份额的提升作用不仅不可持续,而且会对劳动生产率产生持续损害,借助趋利性的企业金融化来获得劳动收入份额的提升无异于“饮鸩止渴”。本文的研究结论可为我国进一步深化金融体系供给侧结构性改革,引导金融回归本源,更好地服务于实体经济提供有益参考。