局部相对风险规避与农业保险需求

提高农业保险需求是发展农业保险的核心,因此分析农业保险需求的不同影响因素具有重要意义。基于局部相对风险规避视角,本文采用局部风险规避函数和期望效用函数构造了一个局部最优农业保险购买模型,发现农业收入在农户总收入中的占比减小会导致农业保险的有效需求降低。另外,基于2007-2013年全国31个省的面板数据,本文采用系统广义矩模型分析了农业保险需求的影响因素。实证分析表明:农业收入占比降低,农业保险需求降低,并且我国农户对农业风险具有递增的边际敏感性,与理论分析一致;农业保险产品不能有效覆盖生产农业的自然风险,提高农业保险赔付程度可以有效提高农业保险需求。     

耗散结构理论视角下的农业保险风险共担机制研究

农户购买农业保险的最大特点在于群体决策效应大于经济人假设下的个体决策效应:第一,农户群体的集聚效应决定了信息的高效性和趋同性;第二,农户对农业保险的需求层次化差异显著;第三,信息的传递与群体效应相互作用的实质是耗散结构的过程。运用传统期望效用函数探讨了风险规避函数与农户购买农业保险意愿的关系,进一步借助耗散结构理论推导出UIF效用函数的形式,并论证了在农业保险需求多元化的条件下实施风险共担机制的可行性。在此基础上,从开放性、非线性作用和涨落等三个方面提出了实施农业保险风险共担机制的合理措施。     

耗散结构理论视角下的农业保险风险共担机制研究

农户购买农业保险的最大特点在于群体决策效应大于经济人假设下的个体决策效应:第一,农户群体的集聚效应决定了信息的高效性和趋同性;第二,农户对农业保险的需求层次化差异显著;第三,信息的传递与群体效应相互作用的实质是耗散结构的过程.运用传统期望效用函数探讨了风险规避函数与农户购买农业保险意愿的关系,进一步借助耗散结构理论推导出UIF效用函数的形式,并论证了在农业保险需求多元化的条件下实施风险共担机制的可行性.在此基础上,从开放性、非线性作用和涨落等三个方面提出了实施农业保险风险共担机制的合理措施     

发展政策性农业保险的对策建议

开展农业保险面临的主要问题(一)农业保险参与主体缺位。由于财力紧张,地方政府对农业保险提及的多,出台的扶持政策少,基本上没有拿出资金对农业保险补贴,导致农业保险对商业性保险公司和农户的吸引力明显不足。从保险公司角度看,农业保险风险高、收益低不符合公司经营目的的要求,因此,保险公司对经营农业保险缺乏内在动力。从农民角度看,农民对农业保险有效需求不足的原因是多方面的,其中农民收入偏低是直接原因,农民的小规模经营也弱化了农业保险的保障功能。     

政策性农业保险参与主体博弈分析及风险防范策略

本文在对政策性农业保险参与主体进行角色定位分析的基础上,剖析了政策性农业保险中政府、保险公司和农户等主体之间以及各级政府之间在不同风险状态下的利益博弈关系,探讨了政府介入政策性农业保险条件下风险补偿的博弈行为,分别从政府、商业保险公司和农户三个主体的角度提出了政策性农业保险风险的具体防范策略。     

我国农业保险保费的最优补贴率研究——基于激励与约束机制

农业保险是分散农业风险的一种有效手段,多国的保险实践证明没有政府支持的农业保险无法实现有效市场化.政府对农业保险的支持,特别是财政支持,也即农业保险保费补贴率,很大程度上影响着农业保险的发展,值得深入探究.本文从供求理论和价格歧视理论出发,将现代企业管理中的激励与约束机制与保费补贴率问题相结合,探究我国农业保险保费最优补贴率.研究发现,农业保险最优纯补贴率为农业保险赔付率.进一步引入资本资产定价模型对农业保险保费补贴率进行定价,利用农业保险赔付率模拟各地区系统性风险,根据不同险种不同保障水平的保费补贴率风险溢价,测算出各地区不同险种的最优农业保险保费补贴率.为了最大化农业保险的助农功效,还需要通过实行差别化补贴率、降低保险赔付率和经营管理费用率,优化农业保险保费补贴率,最终实现我国财政补贴农业保险从数量增长向质量抬升的转变.     

农业保险补贴政策问题探讨

基于市场农业保护理论,我国政府有必要而且必须实行农业保险补贴政策。农业保险补贴本身具有需求刺激、供给激励以及保险意识强化的功效,要求政府进一步实施有力的保险政策。本文结合安徽省阜阳市颍东区的实际情况,对农业保险存在的问题进行探讨,并提出粗浅建议。     

农业保险对农户生产行为影响研究

农业保险能否引发农户生产行为转移,是一个具有重要的理论和政策意义的课题。本文通过采用实证方法和经济计量工具,对农业保险与农户生产行为的关系进行了研究。主要结论是:农业保险通过同一生产行为内部和不同生产行为之间的收入替代水平和农业保险补偿程度,从而影响农户生产行为。当前的农业保险收入补偿水平满足了大多数农户的收入风险分散预期,从而对农户的主要农作物的生产行为产生固化作用。基于吉林省616户参保农户的面板数据,若以政策性补贴保险政策引导农户生产行为转变,可以考虑采取多种补贴模式:一是高保障、低补贴模式;二是低保障、低补贴等模式;三是高保障、高补贴模式。若保障农民的收入稳定增长,则宜采用高保障、适度补贴模式。     

需求异质性视角下的科技保险财政补贴政策优化

科技保险是科技创新支持体系的关键组成部分。试点十余年来,尽管政府一直对科技保险实行高比例的财政补贴政策,但至今市场需求一直低迷。根本原因在于,现行同质化的财政补贴政策未能契合科技保险需求的异质性特征,难以对科技保险需求形成有效激励。据此,本文在分析科技保险补贴现状和问题的基础上,对科技保险需求异质性问题进行了理论阐述,指出科技保险需求的异质性归根结底来源于高技术行业的异质性。随后,通过建立行业创新风险衡量指标体系,以广东省为例对六大高技术行业的创新风险进行了定量研究,并以此提出了基于行业异质性和险种分类的二维科技保险分类补贴方案。     

农业巨灾保险的需求意愿及其影响因素

本文基于六省市的调查数据,对农民的农业巨灾保险需求意愿进行了特征性描述。并采用Logistic回归模型分别对有无政府补贴情况下,农民对农业巨灾保险的需求意愿及其影响因素进行分析,同时还对农民购买农业巨灾保险意愿的稳定性及其影响因素进行检验。结果表明,政府补贴能有效释放农业巨灾保险的潜在需求。是否参加过农业专业或合作组织、农民文化程度、家庭总收入、农业巨灾风险发生频率以及家庭拥有土地规模等因素显著影响农民对农业巨灾保险需求意愿的稳定性,并能促成农民购买农业巨灾保险行为的发生。     

Drought risk in Nicaragua: a crop,region and technology-specific empirical evaluation

Nicaraguan agriculture is largely rainfed. Drought risk is endemic, consistently wiping out large proportions of potential crop production. An insurance programme that would shift drought risk from farmers could therefore have significant welfare effects. A first step towards analysing drought insurance is the establishment of the empirical connection between rainfall levels and the risk of low returns to crop production. Having reviewed the nature of the agricultural insurance problem and the promise held out by drought insurance, we carry out a preliminary empirical analysis of drought risk. This is done by combining agronomic, economic and meteorological data to predict the probability that economic returns to a particular crop-region-technology combination will fall below a minimum. Four insights emerge: (1) Of the crops analysed, maize, sesame, soybeans and sorghum are the most affected by drought risk; (2) drought risk levels vary considerably across regions; (3) risk levels are also considerably affected by the choice of technology, the shifting of risks via insurance may remove a significant impediment to agricultural modernization; and (4) for some crops in some regions, the risk levels may be too high to allow successful operation of private drought insurance markets. Hence government subsidies may be in order.     

“三农”综合保险的可持续性研究--以福建龙岩“三农”综合保险为例

“三农”综合保险的可持续性分为政府支持可持续性、保险经营可持续性、农民投保可持续性和成功经验的可推广性。不可持续的原因主要有：缺乏法律保障，政府支持具有不确定性能；农村税源流失、财政收入增速赶不上保费补贴增速；集中招投标式的市场准入与自由竞争的大方向相背；“三农”风险的重要性相对降低，投保率下降。应通过立法将政府支持固定下来；培育税源，防灾防损，抑制保费补贴的增速；借鉴国际经验，规定在农村地区开业的保险必须经营部分险种；提高农业收入在农民收入来源中的比重，稳定投保率。     

A Value at Risk Approach to Background Risk

This paper studies the effects of an uninsurable background risk (BR) on the demand for insurance (proportional and with deductible). We study both the case of BR uncorrelated with the insurable one and the perfectly correlated one, in a Gaussian world. In order to perform our study, we exploit the new risk measure known as Value at Risk (VaR) and consider insurance contracts which are Mean-VaR efficient. We obtain results which depend on the parameters (moments) of both risks and on the magnitude of loadings charged by the insurance company, instead of depending on the risk attitudes of the insured, such as risk aversion and prudence.We demonstrate that, if loadings are not too high, the demand for insurance increases with positively correlated BR; it decreases with BR negatively correlated if the latter is less risky than the insurable one (in this case it can even go to zero, if loadings are too high); it goes to zero with BR which is negatively correlated and more risky than the insurable one.     

基于Logit模型对新型农业经营主体农业保险购买偏好的特征研究

新型农业经营主体对农业保险的购买偏好与传统小农户存在明显的区别.运用二分类Logit回归模型,以对8个省份的问卷调查为基础,实证分析新型农业经营主体农业保险的购买偏好特征.结果表明:对市场价格反映较为敏感;更愿意提高保额的同时提高保费,对保费支出意愿较强;更迫切需要高保障型产品,提高损失补偿度;对政府提高保费补贴意愿强;对收入保险需求更迫切;补偿或救助发挥着正向作用.     

地区补贴差异、农民决策分化与农业保险福利再分配

受区域经济发展水平的制约,农业保险的补贴力度存在明显的地区差异:东部发达地区财政对农业保险的补贴力度大,而中西部欠发达地区受自身财政实力的制约补贴力度十分有限.补贴力度的不同将会影响农民参加农业保险的意愿,进而影响他们的生产决策,并最终影响到全体农民的福利分配.应发挥中央财政的调节作用,加大对中西部地区农业保险的扶持力...     

农业保险各主体风险认知与利益互动分析

我国农业保险发展比较缓慢,主要原因之一是农业保险各主体对风险的认知不足.农民参保意识薄弱,保险公司因害怕亏损不愿出售农业保险.虽然政府对农业保险重要性的认识有了较大的提高,还有待进一步深入认知.通过对政府出局时以及政府入局时农民与保险公司的博弈分析,提出了促使农业保险各主体良性互动的建议.     

Insurance demand in the presence of loss-dependent background risk

We analyze insurance demand when insurable losses come with an uninsurable zero-mean background risk that increases in the loss size. If the individual is risk vulnerable, loss-dependent background risk triggers a precautionary insurance motive and increases optimal insurance demand. Prudence alone is sufficient for insurance demand to increase in two cases: the case of fair insurance and the case where the smallest possible loss exceeds a certain threshold value (referred to as the large loss case). We derive conditions under which insurance demand increases or decreases in initial wealth. In the large loss case, prudence determines whether changes in the background risk lead to more insurance demand. We generalize this result to arbitrary loss distributions and find conditions based on decreasing third-degree Ross risk aversion, Arrow–Pratt risk aversion, and Arrow–Pratt temperance.     

乡村振兴战略背景下农业保险发展对策研究——以四川省为例

乡村振兴战略的有效实施离不开金融体系的有力支持,农业保险作为金融支农重要工具在乡村振兴战略实施过程中发挥着重要作用。本文以四川省农业保险发展为研究案例,结合全国农业保险发展概况,点面结合深入分析了农业保险服务乡村振兴的内在逻辑、现状与问题,从乡村振兴依靠主体--老人农业与新型农业经营主体对风险的异质性需求角度出发,论述了农险服务乡村振兴的主要任务。本文认为,现阶段农业保险服务乡村振兴还存在顶层设计不合理、供需错配、目标定位不清导致中长期规划滞后、创新激励不足等结构性问题。基于此,本文提出从中央、省级政府以及保险公司三方出发,采取农险供给侧改革、优化顶层设计、加强农险宣传,提升农户保险意识、探索互助农险合作模式、充分运用互联网高新技术提高风险管控能力等政策建议。     

Public Versus Private Insurance with Dual Theory: A Political Economy Argument

This paper analyzes the political support for public insurance in the presence of a private insurance alternative. The public insurance is compulsory and offers a uniform insurance policy. The private insurance is voluntary and can offer different insurance policies. Adopting Yaari's [Econometrica, 55, 95–115, 1987] dual theory to expected utility (i.e., risk aversion without diminishing marginal utility of income), we show that adverse selection on the private insurance market may lead a majority of individuals to prefer public insurance over private insurance, even if the median risk is below the average risk (so that the median actually subsidizes high-risk individuals). We also show that risk aversion makes public insurance more attractive and that the dual theory is less favourable to a mixed insurance system than the expected utility framework. Lastly, we demonstrate how the use of genetic tests may threaten the political viability of public insurance.     

Functional‐dynamic public participation in technological decision‐making: site selection processes of nuclear waste repositories

This study employs the ordered lottery selection approach with field experiment to measure risk attitude of two distinct population groups in China – farmers in Wuhan and freelancers in media and advertising in Beijing. A comparative design was used to reveal the cross-population difference in risk attitude and its affecting factors. The results showed that both groups exhibited constant partial risk aversion and decreasing absolute risk aversion, while the farmers were more risk-averse than the freelancers. The farmer and freelancer respondents demonstrated very different sensitivity to the warming-up games types involving ‘gain-only’ or ‘gain-loss’ while extremely risk-averse respondents in the warming-up games possessed the consistent attitudinal behavior in the formal tests. The comparative experiment revealed that gender and income were two statistically significant factors affecting risk attitude and they appeared to be consistent across the two distinct groups. Surprisingly, respondents’ perceived frequency of risk occurrence was not correlated to their risk attitude. Moreover, the factors of leisure and investment behavior were significantly linked to the freelancers’ risk attitude but not the farmers’. The experiment also found a non-linear relationship between risk attitude and education, and receiving college education was found to be a critical switching point that was significantly linked to respondents’ risk choices. While further research is needed to better understand the governing mechanism in risk attitude, perception, and behavior, this paper tried to link the experimental results to the natural disaster insurance practice in China and discussed their implication to the policy design.