Tail risk contagion between international financial markets during COVID-19 pandemic

In this paper, we combine the time-varying financial network model and FARM-selection approach to analyze the tail risk contagion between international financial market during the COVID-19 epidemic. Since the tail risk acts as a global transmission channel, we use the sample of 19 international financial markets to explore the contagion of tail risk during the epidemic. We find that the COVID-19 epidemic increases the number of contagion channels in the international financial system. The clustering level of the financial system has a significant growth during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the number of risk drivers is also larger than risk takers. The key financial market of each international financial network is related to the epidemic country. We also consider the tail risk contagion in local financial markets and find that the COVID-19 pandemic has an important influence on the tail risk contagions in local network systems     

Financial sector diversification and MNC valuation

We extend the literature on MNC performance by examining the relationship between market valuation of MNCs and intangibles associated with financial expertise. We identify firms as having financial expertise if they have diversified their business in the financial sector. We argue that financial expertise enhances the ability of MNCs to internalize financial transactions and take advantage of financing and investment opportunities around the world. Therefore, it is a potentially significant source of market power. Our test results demonstrate that as the degree of multinationality increases market valuation is positively related with financial expertise even after we account for several other control factors. Our findings imply that MNCs with financial expertise can be viewed as possessing an additional intangible, which essentially is the financial equivalent of the traditionally examined intangible assets, such as technological “know-how,” goodwill, and managerial expertise.     

现代金融中介理论视角下的我国金融体系模式选择

现代金融中介理论表明,商业银行等金融中介与经济增长之间存在密切的相关性。金融中介在促进经济增长的同时,也面临着许多复杂问题。本文从现代金融中介理论的视角出发,对银行导向型金融体系与市场导向型金融体系进行了国际比较,并从融资关系、风险管理、信息生产、公司治理等角度进行对比分析,得出在中国现实的环境下中介与市场发挥着不同作用,但金融中介的优势明显。因此,我国应选择以金融中介为主、资本市场为辅的金融体系,并加紧推出金融机构的混业经营模式。     

The Relationships between Real Estate Price and Expected Financial Asset Risk and Return: Theory and Empirical Evidence

In pricing real estate with indifference pricing approach, market incompleteness is shown to significantly alter the conventional pricing relationships between real estate and financial asset. Specifically, we focus on the pricing implication of market comovement because comovement tends to be stronger in financial crisis when investors are especially sensitive to price declines. We find that real estate price increases with expected financial asset return but only in weak market comovement (i.e., a normal market environment) when investors enjoy diversification benefit. When market comovement is strong, real estate price strictly declines with expected financial asset return. More importantly, contrary to the conventional positive relationship from real option studies, real estate price generally declines with expected financial asset risk. With realistic market parameters, we show that there is a nonlinear relationship between real estate price and financial risk. When the market comovement is strong, real estate price only increases with financial asset risk when the risk is low but eventually declines with the risk when it becomes high. Our cross-country empirical results also show that the relationship between financial market risk and real estate price is non-monotonic, conditional on the degree of market comovement.     

Openness,financial structure,and bank risk: International evidence

Using panel data from a large cross-country sample covering 97 countries over the period 1996–2017, we combine 2SLS procedure with system GMM estimation to study the relationship between openness, financial structure and bank risk. The main contribution of the paper is that we identified a new channel, i.e. the financial structure channel, through which financial openness reduces bank risk. In particular, we find that as financial openness increases, a country's financial system tends to be more market-based, and a more market-based financial system is associated with higher bank market power, better information sharing and more revenue diversification, all of which contribute to the reduction in bank risk. We also find that the effect of inflow restrictions on bank risk is more pronounced than that of outflow restrictions. These results highlight the importance of an appropriate design of a country's opening-up strategy to match the evolution of its financial structure to increase bank stability.     

金融市场参与、风险异质性与家庭幸福

本文研究了金融市场参与对家庭幸福的影响。理论分析显示,金融市场参与通过风险和收益对家庭幸福产生影响。本文运用2015年中国家庭金融调查数据,实证研究了金融市场参与对家庭幸福的影响。为克服内生性,本文选取工具变量,运用极大似然估计发现,家庭参与金融市场会显著提高家庭幸福的可能性。从投资风险的角度进一步研究发现,金融投资的风险异质性对家庭幸福有显著影响:家庭参与低风险金融投资会显著提高家庭幸福,参与高风险金融投资会显著降低家庭幸福。从民间借贷参与中,本文发现家庭参与民间借出款会显著提高家庭幸福的可能性。民间借贷投资风险对家庭幸福的异质性影响也是存在的,高风险借出款对家庭幸福有显著的负向影响。本文为理解家庭金融投资行为与幸福的关系提供了新的证据,可为构建和谐社会提供有益参考。     

Top management incentives and financial flexibility: The case of make‐whole call provisions

Consistent with the premise that make‐whole call provisions enhance value‐creating financial flexibility, we find that higher sensitivity of managerial wealth to stock price (delta) increases the likelihood that corporate bonds contain make‐whole provisions. Building on the results of related research, post‐issue financial performance of make‐whole callable bond issuers increases in delta. In line with prior findings that demonstrate financial flexibility can be costly to bondholders, we find that managerial equity incentives impact the incremental effect of make‐whole provisions on the pricing of corporate debt securities. Consistent with the flexibility explanation, we also find that the market response as measured by abnormal trading volume to the issuance of make‐whole callable debt varies in equity incentives. Overall, our results suggest that managerial incentives play a role in the choice, pricing, and market response to make‐whole options in corporate debt securities.     

科技型中小企业融资问题探讨

本文旨在探讨我国科技型中小企业融资需求特征、融资方面存在的问题并提出相应对策。由于我国科技型中小企业在生产经营上具有创新性、不确定性与风险性、高投入性、高收益性等特点 ,相应地在融资需求上要求融资市场化、多元化、组合化和社会化。但目前科技型中小企业在资金融通方面存在很多问题 ,如融资市场化水平较低、渠道单一、耦合度不高及社会化支撑体系不完善等 ,严重制约着它们的发展、壮大。文章最后提出了相应对策 :(1)积极推进金融创新 ,拓宽融资渠道 ,建立多元化的科技型中小企业融资体系 ;(2)积极探索为科技型中小企业提供系列化、配套化的融资服务 ;(3)充分发挥政府在科技型中小企业融资体系中的作用。     

美欧金融危机中CDS泡沫形成的原因与影响以及相关风险管理问题的思考

2007年以来的国际金融危机中，大规模的CDS合约交易起到了推波助澜的作用，放大了实际风险。然而，也不能完全否定CDS产品在促进金融衍生品市场繁荣，尤其是有效对冲风险中的重要作用。目前，国内已出现了引入CDS的相关研究。本文以欧美危机为鉴，就完善COS市场监管，以及国内引入CDS类似的产品后如何把握好金融监管与市场繁荣之间的平衡进行了相关思考，以期及早进行相应的制度设计，实现市场的良性发展。     

基于动态Copula-CoVaR模型的影子银行风险溢出效应研究

依据2007-2017年中国金融市场运行数据,构建动态Copula-CoVaR模型,考量影子银行风险溢出效应。结果表明：影子银行与传统金融市场存在双向净风险溢出效应,随着时间的推移,溢出效应在逐渐增大;极端风险溢出效应存在不对称特征,影子银行对传统金融市场的冲击较大,且这种冲击具有滞后效应。鉴此,监管部门应夯实金融体系运行基础,创新影子银行监管工具,完善其协调监管模式。     

Cross-country determinants of bank income smoothing by managing loan-loss provisions

This paper studies the determinants of income smoothing by management of loan-loss provisions in banks around the world. Using a panel database of 3221 bank-year observations from 40 countries and controlling for unobservable bank effects and for the endogeneity of explanatory variables, we find that bank income smoothing depends on investor protection, disclosure, regulation and supervision, financial structure, and financial development. Results suggest there is less bank income smoothing not only with the strength of investor protection, but also with the extent of accounting disclosure, restrictions on bank activities, and official and private supervision, while there is more income smoothing with market orientation and development of a country’s financial system.     

低碳经济下商业银行参与碳金融的几点思考

低碳经济是全球保护环境、实现可持续发展的必然趋势,我国国有大型商业银行一直在金融机构体系中占主导地位,积极推进低碳经济建设、发展碳金融业务为商业银行提升其在国际市场上的综合竞争力提供了一个新的主要方向,但由于刚刚起步,许多问题和困难同时存在,因此,深入研究碳金融问题,有利于商业银行在发展低碳经济中发挥巨大作用.     

新能源汽车财务与非财务消息对股市影响的多维特征及差异

新能源汽车股市是投资者对公司财务绩效、政策导向、技术水平和发展前景等多方面因素综合反应的结果。将新能源汽车产业相关消息分为"财务"和"非财务"消息,应用事件研究法从"敏感性""、强弱性"和"持续性"三个维度分析了财务与非财务类消息对于新能源汽车股市影响的差异性。结果表明,新能源汽车非财务类消息对于股市表现影响的强度和持续性相对更显著。新能源汽车非财务类消息中的政策、市场消息对于股市表现影响的敏感性要高于技术消息,政策、技术消息对于股市表现影响的强度明显高于市场消息,技术消息对于股市表现影响的持续性明显优于政策和市场类消息。新能源汽车产业的政策扶持不应仅仅关注现阶段新能源汽车制造商的财务指标,更应高度关注新能源汽车制造商的创新能力。制造商要进一步加大新能源汽车的研发投入,通过资本市场的合理融资促进新能源汽车技术创新和长期盈利能力提升。     

金融创新、公允价值计量与商业银行股票崩盘风险

选取我国沪深两市A股上市商业银行作为研究对象,利用2007—2017年年报数据,实证研究金融创新对商业银行股票崩盘风险的影响。在此基础上,以公允价值计量作为中介变量研究其在金融创新对商业银行股票崩盘风险影响中的作用机理。研究发现：金融创新与商业银行股票崩盘风险负相关,公允价值计量在其中发挥部分中介效应的同时也增加了商业银行股票崩盘风险。在当前鼓励创新和防范化解重大金融风险的背景下,应当大力提倡金融创新,通过公司治理和内部控制来规范公允价值计量的使用。     

Labor Market and Financial Shocks: A Time-Varying Analysis

We estimate a time-varying VAR model to analyze the effects of a financial shock on the U.S. labor market. We find that a tightening of financial conditions is highly detrimental to the labor market. We show that while negative financial shocks have been responsible for increases in unemployment, our model does not find significant contributions of financial shocks during periods of expansion. The source of this asymmetry is the time-varying standard deviation of the identified shock, which is higher in times of financial distress; on the other hand, we find that the transmission mechanism does not significantly change over time.     

房贷风险，一个基于房市繁荣的话题

作为我国新的发展阶段的一个重要支柱产业,房地产业在我国国民经济中发挥的作用越来越大:房地产增加值占全国GDP的比重呈加速上升态势,房地产税收在我国财政收入中的比重也在逐渐增大,各地土地出让收入占财政决算收入和预算外收入的比例也在提高;房地产业所吸收的就业人口和房地产业所带动相关产业的就业人口也在不断扩大.     

自由贸易港需要什么样的金融服务？——再论FT账户和海南自由贸易港的账户选择问题

2025年海南全岛封关运作、实现“一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由”后,海南自由贸易港市场主体及其商品、劳务和金融资产都将具有离岸法律属性,遵守以《自由港法》为核心的离岸法律法规,既有的内地在岸银行账户体系,以及FT账户体系都将无法满足为海南市场主体及其离岸经济活动提供金融服务和基础设施支持的要求,有必要尽快着手建立适应海南自由港经济金融活动需求的,独立于内地既有银行账户体系,包含海南自由港货币当局、商业银行和其他相关金融机构在内,设计清晰、系统简洁、功能完备的海南离岸银行账户体系。同时,在账户规则、监督管理、金融市场建设、中央银行货币发行和其他微宏观审慎管理,以及配套基础设施上抓紧研究方案,尽早着手设计、建设和模拟运行,以期在中央宣布海南全岛封关运作后,能及时投入运行,为全岛封关运作后的海南经济活动提供相应的金融服务和基础设施支持。基于相关规划和设想,本文做学术和学理探讨。     

自由贸易港需要什么样的金融服务？——再论FT账户和海南自由贸易港的账户选择问题

2025年海南全岛封关运作、实现“一线放开、二线管住、岛内自由”后,海南自由贸易港市场主体及其商品、劳务和金融资产都将具有离岸法律属性,遵守以《自由港法》为核心的离岸法律法规,既有的内地在岸银行账户体系,以及FT账户体系都将无法满足为海南市场主体及其离岸经济活动提供金融服务和基础设施支持的要求,有必要尽快着手建立适应海南自由港经济金融活动需求的,独立于内地既有银行账户体系,包含海南自由港货币当局、商业银行和其他相关金融机构在内,设计清晰、系统简洁、功能完备的海南离岸银行账户体系。同时,在账户规则、监督管理、金融市场建设、中央银行货币发行和其他微宏观审慎管理,以及配套基础设施上抓紧研究方案,尽早着手设计、建设和模拟运行,以期在中央宣布海南全岛封关运作后,能及时投入运行,为全岛封关运作后的海南经济活动提供相应的金融服务和基础设施支持。基于相关规划和设想,本文做学术和学理探讨。     

The medium is the message: Learning channels,financial literacy,and stock market participation

This paper investigates the effects of learning channels on stock market participation. More specifically, we investigate the direct effects of learning about financial matters from one's private network, financial advisors, and the media, as well as the moderating effects of financial literacy on the relationship between learning from these channels and stock market participation. Analyzing a unique cross-section data that combine survey data and bank register data on individual retail investors, we find that media is the only learning channel that increases the likelihood of owning stocks and the portfolio share invested in stocks. We also find that financial literacy has a significant moderating effect: Interactions point to the joint importance of learning from media and financial literacy for individuals' stock market participation. Our findings suggest implications to policymakers when designing financial education programs.     

中国金融业资产的规模与效率

通过在金融资产结构与经济增长模型中引入能够综合反映制度变迁的制度变量，证明国家制度变迁对一国金融资产结构与经济增长会起到促进或制约的作用。当制度供给与金融资产结构和经济增长对制度的需求达到均衡时，国家制度安排会优化金融资产结构、促进经济增长，否则便会出现规模与效率的“反比”现象，从而回答了我国金融资产规模与效率之间为什么出现悖论的问题。我国应积极发展非银行金融机构，实现金融体系多元化，对内开放，满足我国经济对多层次、多样化金融的需求，完善金融市场准入制度，优化市场参与主体结构，促进股票市场和银行协调发展。