预期收益额的选择和确定

在收益法评估资产的过程中,收益额的确定会对评估结果产生重要影响,利润总额、净利润和现金流量的预期值均可以作为收益法中的预期收益,但采用净现金流量作为企业整体资产收益额来评估企业整体资产价值应该是一个发展趋势.     

美国寿险公司资产配置的结构变迁及启示

美国寿险公司资产配置结构变迁具有一些显著特征:账户进行严格的分类管理,不同的帐户执行不同的收益目标和资产配置策略;在保持资产配置结构总体稳定的前提下,根据社会经济的结构变化及各类资产风险-收益的相对变化适时进行结构调整以获取稳定的、相对较高的收益.美国的经验是,根据经济、金融结构变化适时调整资产配置结构是寿险公司服务社会经济,获取良好、稳定收益的重要条件.     

收益法应用中收益额的选择及其预测

收益法是指将资产未来收益折成现值以估算资产价值的方法,这种方法被称为资产评估三种基本方法中先进的方法.但收益法中主要参数的预测难度大,受较强的主观判断和未来收益不可预见因素的影响,使方法本身思路方面的先进性大打折扣.本文试就收益法应用中收益额的选择及其预测问题进行探讨.     

我国当前评估实践中应用收益法存在的问题分析及对策

成本法、市场法和收益法是国际通行的资产评估的三大方法.随着我国资产交易的日趋活跃,无形资产评估、企业价值评估的需求增长,过去应用成本法来评估这些资产的做法已经越来越不适应社会发展的需求,取而代之的是应用收益法来评估无形资产、企业价值.与之相应,社会各界日益关注收益法在评估过程中的应用.     

做大财力不可忽视的财源——行政事业资产

行政事业资产占国有资产总量的四分之一，是国有资产的重要组成部分。尽管我们对此项管理下了一些功夫，做了大量的工作，但仍存在许多问题，一是部分单位资产管理混乱，有帐无物、有物无帐、帐实不符的现象比较普遍。二是产权观念模糊，随意资产国有资产的现象较多。三是“非转经”国有资产存在吃老本，补偿严重不足，收益截留为小金库。四是家底不实，资产不清。五是管理制度不健全，有待进一步完善。六是各单位没有从事资产管理的专门机构和人员，大多数由财务人员代管。可见，行政事业资产是做大财力不可忽视的一个财源。     

收益法在企业价值评估中的应用

收益法在企业整体资产评估中的应用研究是当前评估行业发展过程中的一项重大课题.收益法是一种相对科学的整体资产评估方法,针对我国整体资产评估的现状及存在的问题分析了收益法与成本法、市场法的不同,介绍了收益法的几个重要参数,并以企业整体资产评估为例探讨了收益法在资产评估中的应用.     

交易员主导下的投资银行——业务体系、资产分类、财务杠杆和收益结构

投资银行在发展的过程中,从投资银行主导者角度划分,可以分为银行家主导阶段和交易员主导阶段.在目前的交易员主导阶段,国际上成熟的投资银行模式是大投行业务体系,其核心业务主要由四大部分的业务群组成.基于三级资产分类的公允价值法则的顺周期性,加剧了次货危机放大了市场波动.高财务杠杆是投资银行业务模式的突出特征,业界普遍认识到高风险投资要有高资本充足率支持,投资银行业务去杠杆化是一个趋势.高盛集团的收益结构表明,投资和交易业务取代传统的投资银行业务成为收益的主要来源,价差盈利模式取代了费用盈利模式.     

谈谈资产评估的价值基础

古典经济学中的劳动价值论和现代西方经济学中的供求平衡价值理论是资产评估的理论基础.采用现行市价法评估单项资产的价值是市场价值,采用重置成本法评估单项资产的价值主要是非市场价值.目前采用重置成本加和法评估一个持续经营企业的整体资产价值,当物价上涨时作为财务报告的补充资料来增强财务报告的有用性是必要的,但不符合持续经营价值的定义.现行市价法和收益现值法是评估一个持续经营企业的整体价值的有效方法,也是现代西方经济学中的供求平衡价值理论的体现,但现行市价法操作较难,因此整体资产的价值评估应定位于收益现值法.     

中国居民资产配置效率的门限效应研究:金融约束视角

本文基于金融约束视角,结合微观调查数据,并运用门限回归法和两阶段最小二乘法,对我国居民资产配置效率的门限效应问题进行研究。结果表明,从流动性约束、房产持有及商业资产持有三个角度分析居民面临的金融约束,居民资产配置效率的非对称门限效应在不同样本中都显著存在。居民持有资产的风险水平越高,带来的投资收益增量部分越低。同时,持有房产在缓解居民金融约束的同时,资产风险增加对于居民资产配置收益的促进作用仍然下降,受流动性约束影响低的居民以及持有商业资产的居民均能够获得更高的资产配置收益。在不改变金融约束的框架下,以商业性资产替代房产作为主要资产种类能够从微观层面增强经济稳定性,降低系统性金融风险,优化收入结构,提升资产配置效率。     

我国外汇储备的性质及其使用问题探讨

本文从出口一笔商品可以带来两笔等值于出口商品价值的货币资产(即外汇储备和出口结汇所得人民币)的现象出发,分析指出外汇储备和人民币结汇收入是两笔相对独立、可以使用的资产,指出结汇所得人民币只是对传统货币发行渠道的一种替代或挤占.然后结合我国当前的外汇管理制度,分析了如何把外汇储备用于对外和对内购买的同时,保持央行资产负债表的平衡和避免两次结汇带来货币增发.指出外汇储备收益部分是国家可以灵活使用的资产,但结汇后的外汇储备的使用将造成央行资产结构的改变.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.