Time-inconsistent investment,financial constraints,and cash flow hedging

This paper studies the interplay between firm investment and cash flow hedging decisions when the decision-maker has time-inconsistent preferences. We show that cash flow hedging acts as a double-edged sword. In some cases, cash flow hedging enhances firm value because the firm can thus invest at the firm-value-maximizing timing. In other cases, however, cash flow hedging may adversely affect firm value because it loosens the financial constraint that works as a commitment device to mitigate premature investment. Our results thus highlight one unexplored potential dark side of hedging and suggest that the optimal hedging decision is the result of a trade-off between flexibility and commitment.     

Investment, Uncertainty, and Liquidity

We analyze the dynamic investment decision of a firm subject to an endogenous financing constraint. The threat of future funding shortfalls lowers the value of the firm's timing options and encourages acceleration of investment beyond the first‐best optimal level. As well as highlighting another way by which capital market frictions can distort investment behavior, this result implies that (1) the sensitivity of investment to cash flow can be greatest for high‐liquidity firms and (2) greater uncertainty has an ambiguous effect on investment.     

Risk Management: Coordinating Corporate Investment and Financing Policies

This paper develops a general framework for analyzing corporate risk management policies. We begin by observing that if external sources of finance are more costly to corporations than internally generated funds, there will typically be a benefit to hedging: hedging adds value to the extent that it helps ensure that a corporation has sufficient internal funds available to take advantage of attractive investment opportunities. We then argue that this simple observation has wide ranging implications for the design of risk management strategies. We delineate how these strategies should depend on such factors as shocks to investment and financing opportunities. We also discuss exchange rate hedging strategies for multinationals, as well as strategies involving “nonlinear” instruments like options.     

Is cash negative debt? A hedging perspective on corporate financial policies

We show theoretically that while cash allows financially constrained firms to hedge future investment against income shortfalls, reducing current debt is a more effective way to boost investment in future high cash flow states. Thus, constrained firms prefer higher cash to lower debt if their hedging needs are high, but lower debt to higher cash if their hedging needs are low. We provide empirical evidence that supports our theory. Our analysis points to an important hedging motive behind cash and debt management policies. It suggests that cash should not be viewed as negative debt in the presence of financing frictions.     

Agency cost of debt overhang with optimal investment timing and size

The concept of debt overhang (that is, an equity‐maximizing levered firm will under‐invest relative to a firm‐value‐maximizing firm) is well established in the literature. A number of papers have demonstrated it as delayed investment (when investment size is specified) or smaller investment (when investment time is specified). However, there is no work on the underinvestment effect when the firm chooses both size and timing of investment, as it usually does in real life. This is what our paper focuses on. When the firm has the flexibility to choose both size and time, the effect is complicated by the fact that delayed investment results in larger investment, which suggests that the underinvestment problem might be mitigated. We find, however, that the effect depends on how underinvestment is measured. When measured by the expected present value of investment, flexibility can mitigate or exacerbate the underinvestment problem, depending on the cost of installing capacity. But when measured by the agency cost, flexibility always exacerbates the underinvestment problem. It is shown numerically that, at the optimal leverage ratio, the agency cost with plausible parameter values can be economically significant. Thus, with the flexibility of choosing both time and size of investment, the debt overhang problem can be of significant practical relevance in corporate investment decisions.     

The Real and Financial Implications of Corporate Hedging

We study the implications of hedging for corporate financing and investment. We do so using an extensive, hand‐collected data set on corporate hedging activities. Hedging can lower the odds of negative realizations, thereby reducing the expected costs of financial distress. In theory, this should ease a firm's access to credit. Using a tax‐based instrumental variable approach, we show that hedgers pay lower interest spreads and are less likely to have capital expenditure restrictions in their loan agreements. These favorable financing terms, in turn, allow hedgers to invest more. Our tests characterize two exact channels—cost of borrowing and investment restrictions—through which hedging affects corporate outcomes. The analysis shows that hedging has a first‐order effect on firm financing and investment, and provides new insights into how hedging affects corporate value. More broadly, our study contributes novel evidence on the real consequences of financial contracting.     

The Value of Financial Flexibility

We develop a model that endogenizes dynamic financing, investment, and cash retention/payout policies in order to analyze the effect of financial flexibility on firm value. We show that the value of financing flexibility depends on the costs of external financing, the level of corporate and personal tax rates that determine the effective cost of holding cash, the firm's growth potential and maturity, and the reversibility of capital. Through simulations, we demonstrate that firms facing financing frictions should simultaneously borrow and lend, and we examine the nature of dynamic debt and liquidity policies and the value associated with corporate liquidity.     

Deep hedging

We present a framework for hedging a portfolio of derivatives in the presence of market frictions such as transaction costs, liquidity constraints or risk limits using modern deep reinforcement machine learning methods. We discuss how standard reinforcement learning methods can be applied to non-linear reward structures, i.e. in our case convex risk measures. As a general contribution to the use of deep learning for stochastic processes, we also show in Section 4 that the set of constrained trading strategies used by our algorithm is large enough to ε-approximate any optimal solution. Our algorithm can be implemented efficiently even in high-dimensional situations using modern machine learning tools. Its structure does not depend on specific market dynamics, and generalizes across hedging instruments including the use of liquid derivatives. Its computational performance is largely invariant in the size of the portfolio as it depends mainly on the number of hedging instruments available. We illustrate our approach by an experiment on the S&P500 index and by showing the effect on hedging under transaction costs in a synthetic market driven by the Heston model, where we outperform the standard ‘complete-market’ solution.     

Financial hedging and corporate investment

Building on the well-documented relationship between corporate financial hedging and firms' borrowing costs, this study examines the impact of utilizing financial derivative instruments on corporate investment. We document that engaging in financial hedging enables firms to pursue more inorganic growth opportunities in the form of M&As. Acquiring firms with financial hedging programs have a lower borrowing cost and are more likely to pay for their deals with cash and use external borrowing. While financial hedging serves as a vehicle for firms to bring their inorganic investment plans to fruition by facilitating their financing, it also leads to inferior investment choices when conflicts of interest among managers and shareholders are more likely to arise. Our study shows for the first time that the financial flexibility emanating from corporate financial hedging can give rise to agency costs by instigating entrenched managers to overinvest.     

Corporate hedging versus risk-shifting in financially constrained firms: The time-horizon matters!

The paper presents an intertemporal theory of the optimal risk policy in shareholder-managed firms, which face future financing constraints and act under moral hazard as well as limited liability. Our model provides an integrated framework that overcomes the dilemma of “conflicting motives” of risk-shifting (Jensen and Meckling, 1976) on the one hand and corporate hedging (Smith and Stulz, 1985) on the other hand by considering time-effects. Shareholders face a trade-off between a risk-shifting incentive if the investment horizon is short, and a hedging incentive that becomes dominant if the investment horizon is sufficiently long. Within an infinite-time investment horizon, Jensen and Meckling's risk incentive problem can be fully solved as permanent hedging is optimal except for firms in financial distress, which constantly opt for risk-shifting. We further show that the value of corporate hedging increases if financing constraints become more severe. Our results suggest that life-cycle features play a significant role in the firm's propensity to hedge. They also coincide with existing empirical evidence, which shows that only highly leveraged firms facing financial distress will primarily opt for risk-shifting.     

基于实物期权理论的企业设计创新投资时机研究

产品的设计创新已经成为企业培养和维持核心竞争优势的关键。已有文献较少基于经济管理的视角来探讨不确定条件下企业设计创新所具有的实物期权特性,且传统的 DCF 无法对管理决策柔性做出科学的评价。为此,根据实物期权理论,构建企业设计创新的投资时机模型,并利用案例证明该模型的科学性和可行性。结果表明,企业在 DCF 分析的同时,应充分考虑企业设计创新的投资期权价值,把握最佳投资时机,实现科学决策。     

模糊厌恶下股指期货风险对冲策略设计及实证分析

投资者对股指期货与现货有着不同的模糊厌恶,本文首先将此假设条件引入带交易成本的Garleanu and Pederson (2013)投资模型中,并以指数基金对冲策略为例,构建了一个股指期货动态对冲的理论模型。与非对冲策略相比,基于上述模型设计的对冲策略投资绩效更好,动态最优成交额占目标交易额的比例更小,目标成交额对收益率预测因子的敏感性更大。借助上述模型,本文选取2010年4月至2021年6月的中国ETF指数基金和股指期货数据,并以2015年9月股指期货管理措施实施为界进行区间划分,实证研究发现:(1)中国A股市场的ETF投资组合进行股指期货对冲显著提升了投资绩效,但股指期货管理会削弱该作用;(2)投资绩效改善主要来源于交易成本的下降与目标成交额因子敏感性的提升,该机制受到股指期货管理的约束;(3)与Garleanu and Pederson (2013)、Zhang et al. (2017)相比,本文对冲策略保留“抗跌”特点的同时增加了“易涨”特性。本文研究结果表明,在当前大力发展机构投资者的背景下应不断丰富股指期货、股指期权产品谱系,降低股指期货交易成本并完善持仓约束。     

Does Hedging Affect Firm Value? Evidence from the US Airline Industry

Does hedging add value to the firm, and if so, is the source of the added value consistent with hedging theory? We investigate jet fuel hedging behavior of firms in the US airline industry during 1992–2003 to examine whether such hedging is a source of value for these companies. We illustrate that the investment and financing climate in the airline industry conforms well to the theoretical framework of Froot, Scharfstein, and Stein (1993). In general, airline industry investment opportunities correlate positively with jet fuel costs, while higher fuel costs are consistent with lower cash flow. Given that jet fuel costs are hedgeable, airlines with a desire for expansion may find value in hedging future purchases of jet fuel. Our results show that jet fuel hedging is positively related to airline firm value. The coefficients on the hedging variables in our regression analysis suggest that the “hedging premium” is greater than the 5% documented in Allayannis and Weston (2001), and might be as large as 10%. We find that the positive relation between hedging and value increases in capital investment, and that most of the hedging premium is attributable to the interaction of hedging with investment. This result is consistent with the assertion that the principal benefit of jet fuel hedging by airlines comes from reduction of underinvestment costs.     

Dynamic market entry and the value of flexibility in transitional international joint ventures

The purpose of this study is to formalize the optimal choice of market entry strategy for an individual multinational enterprise (MNE) from a dynamic perspective. It is argued that incorporating a suitable treatment of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility related to an MNE's investment decision gives further insights into the expansion, dissolvement, and optimal timing of international joint ventures (IJVs). In most cases, the initial entry strategy serves as a platform allowing the firm to make subsequent investments to exploit host-country advantages and capabilities. We allow for this by taking a three-step expansion strategy explicitly into account. The evolutionary process of the value of the foreign direct investment can be interpreted as a compound complex chooser option. The results suggest that uncertainty, size of equity share and future investment/divestment opportunities play an important role when it comes to transit from export to the first phase of the foreign direct investment commitment. The paper underscores the importance of modeling the dynamics of market entry and helps to refine the application of real options in the alliance context by providing a closed-form solution in continuous time to value the overall strategic flexibility.     

Hedging,Financing and Investment Decisions: A Simultaneous Equations Framework

We empirically investigate the interactions among hedging, financing, and investment decisions. We argue that the way in which hedging affects a firm's financing and investing decisions differs for firms with different growth opportunities. We find that high growth firms increase their investment, but not leverage, by hedging. However, we also find that firms with few investment opportunities use derivatives to increase their leverage.     

Hedging and liquidity

This article develops a model for evaluating alternative hedgingstrategies for financially constrained firms. A key advantageof the model is the ability to capture the intertemporal effectsof hedging on the firm's financial situation. We characterizethe optimal hedge. A wide range of alternative hedging strategiescan be specified and the model allows us to determine in eachcase if the hedging strategy raises or lowers firms value andby how much. We show that hedging firm value, hedging cash flowfrom operations and hedging sales revenue are not optimal. Thearticle highlights the fact that every hedging strategy comespackaged with a borrowing strategy which requires careful consideration.     

Time and frequency dynamics of connectedness and hedging performance in global stock markets: Bitcoin versus conventional hedges

Some studies have revealed the hedging ability of Bitcoin against stock markets, but the knowledge of how it compares with other hedges is in its infancy. This paper presents the first study on time-frequency domain connectedness and hedging among five hedges (Bitcoin, crude oil, commodities, gold and the U.S. dollar (USD) index) and four stock indices (developed markets ex U.S., emerging markets ex China, U.S. and China). We find that the connectedness between hedges and stock markets varies by time across time horizons. Specifically, the connectedness between Bitcoin and stock indices is the smallest among all hedges, especially for the short horizon. Gold and USD are isolated from other markets at longer horizons. The hedging ratio, optimal portfolio weights and hedging effectiveness also vary across investment horizons. For short-term investment, gold has better hedging effectiveness, especially for emerging stock markets and the U.S. stock market. For median- and long-term investment, USD has better performance, especially for developed markets ex U.S. and emerging stock markets. Additionally, although Bitcoin has good hedging properties, it has high volatility compared with other hedging assets. In other words, if Bitcoin is included in a portfolio, investors should pay attention to its wide variation. These empirical findings highlight the important role that gold and USD play in hedging against global stock markets.     

What Drives the Relationship Between Financial Flexibility and Firm Performance: Investment Scale or Investment Efficiency? Evidence from China

Financial flexibility helps improve firm performance. By using data from Chinese listed companies, we examine whether investment scale or investment efficiency drives the relationship between financial flexibility and firm performance via a special mediator testing method that is widely used in the psychology literature (Baron and Kenny, 1986). We find that financial flexibility has a significant and positive effect on both investment and firm performance. However, investment scale rather than investment efficiency seems to drive firm performance. This finding helps us understand that Chinese companies tend to emphasize investment expansion more than they do investment efficiency to improve firm performance.     

Insiders' hedging in a jump diffusion model

In this paper, we formulate the optimal hedging problem when the underlying stock price has jumps, especially for insiders who have more information than the general public. The jumps in the underlying price process depend on another diffusion process, which models a sequence of firm-specific information. This diffusion process is observed only by insiders. Nevertheless, the market is incomplete to insiders as well as to the general public. We use the local risk minimization method to find an optimal hedging strategy for insiders. We also numerically compare the value of the insider's hedging portfolio with the value of an honest trader's hedging portfolio for a simulated sample path of a stock price.     

The Market for Mergers and the Boundaries of the Firm

We relate the property rights theory of the firm to empirical regularities in the market for mergers and acquisitions. We first show that high market-to-book acquirers typically do not purchase low market-to-book targets. Instead, mergers pair together firms with similar ratios. We then build a continuous-time model of investment and merger activity combining search, scarcity, and asset complementarity to explain this like buys like result. We test the model by relating like-buys-like to search frictions. Search frictions and assortative matching vary inversely, supporting the model over standard explanations.