智能化对中国劳动力市场的影响——基于就业广度和强度的分析

随着自动化、智能化技术的不断发展,越来越多的工作岗位可能被机器和人工智能所替代。本文将美国劳工部标准职业代码与中国职业代码相匹配,基于Frey and Osborne(2017)对美国各种职业被智能化替代概率的估计结果,估算了中国各职业被智能化替代的概率,并在此基础上计算了城市层面的被替代指标。接下来,利用多个年份的人口普查和家庭调查微观数据以及欧盟的机器人使用数据,本文在城市层面和个人层面估计了智能化对就业广度(就业人数)和就业强度(工作时长)的影响。研究发现,智能化对中国劳动就业产生了明显的替代作用,一方面减少了就业人数的增长,另一方面却增加了在职劳动力的工作时间,分样本分析发现女性、低教育劳动者、大龄劳动者、移民等劳动力市场中相对脆弱的群体所受的冲击更大。     

Ethical impact of artificial intelligence in managerial accounting

Recent advances in technology have accelerated digitalization and intelligence in modern business. Particularly, the increasing use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in managerial accounting is expected to accurately measure corporate performance, provide intelligent analyses, and predict the future of a company. However, along with the benefits, ethical concerns of using AI also arise, such as deprofessionalization, data breach, and isolation among accountants. This paper explores the ethical impact of AI in managerial accounting at both pre- and post-adoption stages. Based on 47 interviews conducted with companies, an AI system vendor, and regulators, we found that data security, privacy, and misuse; accountability; accessibility; benefits and challenges; and transparency and trust of AI are among the most common ethical risks in the development and use of AI in managerial accounting. Unique ethical impacts on four types of stakeholders: developers, managers in charge of AI adoption, managerial accountants, and regulators, were also discovered.     

政府失业目标调整与就业质量——来自微观企业层面的证据

本文探讨地方政府失业目标调整对企业就业质量的影响。以2870份市级政府工作报告中计划失业率测量政府失业目标,以企业冗员反向测量就业质量,研究发现:更宽松的失业目标调整会降低冗员,提升就业质量;这种调整影响存在非对称性,企业对失业目标的上调更为敏感,会显著降低企业冗员,但下调影响并不显著,这说明调整影响更多来自政府导向下的企业主动行为。本文也发现失业目标调整的影响在民企、补贴较少的公司和市场化程度高的地区更强。最后,本文发现更宽松的失业目标调整会提高企业全要素生产率和公司价值。本文结论表明,在失业目标管理中,除考虑就业率之外,还应关注就业质量,通过引导企业创造新的更合适的就业岗位来实现“更高质量和更充分就业”目标。     

Valuing the Potential Transformation of Banks into Financial Service Conglomerates: Evidence from the Citigroup Merger

The merger between Citicorp and Travelers Group on April 6, 1998 could have emitted two relevant signals for firms that provide financial services. The first signal is the endorsement by two prominent financial institutions that benefits from cross‐selling of bank services with insurance services, brokerage services, and other financial services can be realized. The second signal is that regulators will allow the combination of commercial banking with insurance underwriting and full‐service brokerage, paving a path for similar combinations in the future. We document a favorable share price response for commercial banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms, which supports the argument that the merger sets a precedent for other combinations between banks and nonbank financial services that will facilitate cross‐selling and efficiencies.     

Satisfaction drivers for Internet service technology among stock brokerage customers in Thailand

Many financial services firms are offering the Internet as a self-service technology (SST), for online stock trading, in an effort to increase effciency and give customers greater access. It is important to understand how this technology will influence customer satisfaction. This paper reports results of exploratory research to identify sources of customer satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the service encounter in Thai stockbrokerage firms. Results show that customers and service providers determine sources of customer dis/satisfaction differently, depending on whether the service encounter is technology-based or interpersonal. Different customer profiles give rise to segmentation in response to the use of Internet technology in this industry.     

New development: Reinventing industrial policy—a Russian study in engineering and design

Engineering and industrial design services are closely connected to both an economy’s value and level of employment. While the global market for engineering services is growing steadily, the Russian engineering and industrial design market is very fragmented. Russia began a targeted policy for engineering and industrial design in 2013 to support service providers who were struggling with high interest rates on loans and insufficiently qualified staff. This article reports on this initiative and reflects on its impact.     

数字金融、家庭相对收入及脆弱性——兼论多维“鸿沟”的影响

数字金融发展是否有利于提升家庭相对收入并降低家庭脆弱性值得深入研究。基于宏微观匹配数据,本文从相对收入及脆弱性视角考察了数字金融的增收效应及其微观作用机理,并分析了多维“鸿沟”的影响。研究表明,数字金融发展,尤其是使用深度的提升,有利于提升家庭相对收入水平、降低脆弱性。微观作用机制在于,数字金融发展能够有效提升家庭金融可得性和使用性,并促进潜在投资行为和就业创业活动。进一步分析发现,数字金融发展虽然体现了普惠特征,但并未明显打破空间限制,对城镇等发达地区及具有数字设备、受过金融教育等家庭的相对收入及脆弱性展现出更强的作用;对贫困户、无数字设备等家庭的相对收入作用不显著,充分体现了破除多维“鸿沟”的紧迫性。本文为进一步优化数字金融缩小收入差距、降低家庭脆弱性的政策提供了参考。     

Through the organizational looking glass: you can't plan tomorrow's organizations with today's assumptions

It's hard to imagine what our industrial society would be like if, for instance, there were no factories. How would things get produced, how would business survive? But are we, in fact, an industrial society? Are factories going to be the prime production place for a society that is conserving energy and doesn't need to travel to work because the silicon chip makes it more efficient to work at home? Who knows what the impact of energy conservation and women in the work force will be on future organizations? One thing we can be sure of, this author writes, is that whatever tomorrow brings, today's assumptions probably cannot account for it. We are, he asserts, entering a period of discontinuous change where the assumptions we have been working with as a society and in organizations are no longer necessarily true. He discusses three assumptions he sees fading--what causes efficiency, what work is, and what value organizational hierarchy has--and then gives some clues as to what our new assumptions might be. Regardless of what our assumptions actually are, however, our organizations and society will require leaders willing to take enormous risks and try unproved ways to cope with them.     

Why are some modes of acquisition more profitable? A study of the credit card industry

A key challenge in financial services marketing is attracting good customers to the firm. For most financial services firms, including credit card firms, a good customer is also a profitable customer. Managers would like to use marketing tactics that attract the most profitable customers while closely monitoring and perhaps limiting expenditures on marketing tactics that tend to attract relatively less profitable customers. Therefore, managers need to understand the relative effectiveness of different modes of new account acquisition and the impact that the various modes of acquisition may have on overall account profitability. To date, there have been very few studies that have calculated individual level customer profitability and then investigated the relationship between new customer acquisition source and customer profitability. That is, how do modes of acquisition differ in their ability to attract profitable customers? We answer this question using a proprietary and novel data set from the credit card industry. Of the four modes of acquisition used in this industry, we find that Internet and direct mail efforts generate more profitable customers than telemarketing and direct selling. We provide possible explanations for these findings. Our work adds to the growing literature in customer relationship management and our results have important managerial implications for resource allocation among acquisition strategies.     

The differential effects of classified boards on firm value

Classified boards actually benefit firms that have low monitoring costs and greater needs for advisory services. Previous literature has emphasized the entrenchment effect of classified boards. However, we find that this adverse impact of classified boards can be offset or even superseded by the potential benefits of board classification for firms who hope to benefit from the advisory services of their independent directors. We show that firms with greater advising needs appoint more outside directors with diverse attributes and expertise, qualifications that enhance the ability to provide useful advice to managers. Furthermore, in such firms, board classification is associated with higher performance sensitivity of forced CEO turnover and better acquisition performance. Conversely, in firms with high monitoring costs, board classification hurts managerial equity-based incentives and risk-taking incentives. These findings suggest how and through which channels classified boards engender the differential effects on firm value.     

Accounting Education and the Prerequisite Skills of Accounting Graduates: Are Accounting Firms’ Moving the Boundaries?

The current requisite skills of accounting graduates guide the graduate attributes delivered by university learning outcomes. A recent trend by Australian accounting firms to outsource accounting services may impact on accounting graduates if entry‐level tasks normally completed by graduates are sent to offshore processing centres. This study examines the impact of the outsourcing of accounting services by Australian accounting firms and classifies the current requisite skills for accounting graduates identified by accounting firms. Following a review of the current academic literature, a positivist approach using empirical data is taken in this paper. The responses elicited from a survey questionnaire mailed to a random sample of Australian accounting firms provide information for the data analysis. One of the most widely outsourced services identified is the preparation of income tax returns, which has been identified as a key area where graduate accountants normally learn the basic skills required to phase them into the profession. Accounting firms that considered the outsourcing of accounting services would change the 12 ranked prerequisite skills for graduates presented in this paper in order of importance.     

Managerial Actions, Stock Returns, and Earnings: The Case of Business-to-Business Internet Firms

In this study we investigate the valuation implications of managerial actions undertaken by 57 Internet firms engaged in Business-to-Business (B2B) e-commerce. We classify 3,007 managerial actions undertaken by our sample firms between the firm's IPO date and September 30, 2000 into nine action categories: (1) acquisition of major customers, (2) introduction of new products and services, (3) promotional and marketing actions, (4) actions taken to address the concerns of stakeholders such as employees and the community at large, (5) announcements of technology, marketing, and distribution alliances, (6) completion of acquisitions, (7) expansion into international markets, (8) management team building actions, and (9) organizational changes.
In the short window tests, we find a significant increase in stock price volatility over a three-day event window surrounding the announcement of almost all actions suggesting that announcement of managerial actions provides value-relevant information to the stock market. In the long window tests, we use factor analysis to group the counts of managerial actions taken by each firm over its post-IPO life into two broad managerial initiatives—market penetration and organization building. These two initiatives explain a substantial portion of the cross-sectional variation in the firms' post-IPO life stock market returns beyond that explained by both reported earnings and analysts' forecasts of future earnings and revenues. Thus, investors appear to supplement relatively meager accounting information with data about the cross-sectional intensity of managerial actions in setting stock prices of B2B Internet firms.     

最低工资标准提高对企业资本劳动比的影响研究

资本劳动比的提高对企业发展、经济增长和结构转型都具有重要意义。本文利用2002—2011年中国工业企业数据和283个地级市统计数据,探讨了最低工资标准提高对企业资本劳动比的影响。研究发现,最低工资标准提升对制造业企业资本劳动比具有显著的正向影响。平均而言,最低工资标准每提升10%,企业资本劳动比将提高2%,该结果在工具变量回归、双重差分法等多项稳健性检验下均成立。机制分析表明,最低工资标准提高会使企业增加资本投入和减少劳动力雇佣,这一结论为企业用资本替代劳动力的事实提供了直接证据。异质性分析表明,最低工资标准提升对企业资本劳动比的影响主要集中于非国有企业、较低工资水平企业和劳动密集型企业。进一步研究发现,随着最低工资标准提升,企业生产率和盈利能力显著提高,从而佐证了企业用资本替代劳动力的积极效应。本文的研究为进一步完善最低工资制度,促进经济转型升级提供了经验依据与政策启示。     

数字金融发展是否存在马太效应？——贫困户与非贫困户的经验比较

数字普惠金融发展是否存在马太效应,贫困户和非贫困户之间的收入不平等是否会因此而加剧值得深入研究。基于中国劳动力动态调查和北京大学数字普惠金融指数,从数字金融的覆盖广度和使用深度来考察数字金融发展是否存在马太效应及其作用机制。结果表明:贫困户可借助数字金融平滑生存型消费和积累发展型要素,但效果并不显著,而非贫困户在有效利用数字金融功能防范风险、平滑消费、积累要素的同时,还能休闲娱乐,数字金融发展的马太效应明显;不同数字金融产品的马太效应具有显著差异,数字征信的效应最大,数字信贷、数字支付次之;数字金融发展对不同收入差距类型的影响具有显著异质性,对经营性收入差距的影响最为明显。本文为研究数字普惠金融提供了新的视角,可为未来数字金融缩小收入差距政策的制定提供有益参考。     

Security Choice and Corporate Governance

The most efficient corporate governance structure will vary by firm depending on the costs and benefits of different governance mechanisms. For IPO firms, warrants might act as a substitute for other governance mechanisms ( Schultz, 1993 ). Alternatively, warrants might serve as a signal of high quality, and thus effectively governed, firms ( Chemmanur and Fulghieri, 1997 ), in which case they would act as a complement to other governance mechanisms. We test these competing hypotheses by examining a sample of unit IPO firms (firms issuing warrants with shares) matched to a comparable sample of shares-only firms and show that warrants act as a substitute for other governance mechanisms. The research is also of interest because it shows an interaction between the financing decisions of firms and their corporate governance that has not been documented previously.     

证券期货市场人工智能交易的刑法规制

证券期货市场人工智能交易具有强大的预测分析能力、投资策略制定能力以及敏锐的市场反应能力。与之相适应,刑法对证券期货犯罪的规制重点也应当从交易的行为方式向交易技术转移。鉴于利用人工智能交易可以实施滥用技术优势型市场操纵犯罪行为,刑法有必要对人工智能交易予以规制,并且这种规制利大于弊。规制应当明确区分人工智能交易的正当使用和滥用,并进一步完善操纵证券、期货市场罪的规定。     

Enterprise large language models: Knowledge characteristics,risks, and organizational activities

Since the release of OpenAI's ChatGPT, there has been substantial interest in and concern about generative AI systems. This paper investigates some of the characteristics, risks, and limitations with the enterprise use of enterprise large language models. In so doing, we study the organizational impact, continuing a long line of research on that topic. This paper examines the impact on expertise, the organizational implications of multiple correlated but different responses to the same query, the potential concerns associated with sensitive information and intellectual property, and some applications that likely would not be appropriate for large language models. We also investigate the possibility of agents potentially manipulating the content in these large language models for their own benefit. Finally, we investigate the emerging phenomenon of “ChatBot Enterprise” versions, including some of the implications and concerns of such enterprise large language models.     

资源控制权、控制权收益与会计师事务所合并

本文试图探讨产权对会计师事务所合并的影响。考察会计师事务所的产权关系,可以发现,由审计市场供求关系诱发的资源控制权的个人化,为大股东建立以资源控制权为导向的利益分配机制提供了机会。由于控制权主体的控制权收益的补偿成为谈判的条件之一,从而增加了合并的难度,因此控制权收益的补偿成为事务所合并的主要障碍。     

E-banking in transition economies: The case of Romania

Internet banking is one of the newest Internet technology applications, which promises multiple benefits both for the financial institutions and for clients. In the last five years a large number of banks have launched websites, offering online banking services. While the implementation and functioning of these digital systems seem to be relatively smooth in the developed economies, the situation may be different in countries with economies in transition. The present paper investigates and analyses the specific conditions of an economy in transition (Romania), and the appropriate strategies for the implementation and use of e-banking services.     

CEO contractual protection and debt contracting

Chief Executive Officer (CEO) contractual protection, in the forms of CEO employment agreements and CEO severance pay agreements, is prevalent among S&P 1500 firms. While prior research has examined the impact of these agreements on corporate decisions from shareholders’ perspective, there is little research on the impact from debt holders’ perspective. We find that, compared with other loans, loans issued by firms with CEO contractual protection on average contain more performance covenants and performance-pricing provisions. This effect increases with CEOs’ risk-taking incentives and opportunities, but it decreases with CEOs’ preference for and opportunity of enjoying a quiet life. Furthermore, for loans issued by firms with CEO contractual protection, debt holders include stricter covenants, charge a higher interest rate and use a more diffuse syndicate structure. Collectively, these results shed light on the impact of CEO contractual protection on debt contracting.