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1.
Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(2):93-111
This paper provides a comprehensive default estimation of commercial real estate loans with a complete commercial mortgage
backed securities (CMBS) loan history database. Standard survival models assume that eventually every observation will experience
the event. However, often there is a high proportion of censored observation in the sample. A mixture model is proposed to
disentangle the probability of “long-term survivorship” and the timing of default occurrence. Loans within the same geographical
area and property type tend to exhibit correlation in default incidence. A multilevel model is proposed to capture this correlation
within and between clusters.
相似文献
Yildiray YildirimEmail: |
2.
Asset Price Spillover,Collateral and Crises: with an Application to Property Market Policy 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Nan-Kuang Chen Charles Ka Yui Leung 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(4):351-385
This paper studies the impact of land supply elasticity and land use regulation. For sufficiently adverse shocks constrained
entrepreneurs liquidate their assets for debt repayment. This effect can spillover to the residential property market. A crisis
occurs when households are forced to default on their mortgages as well. While both converting costs and land use regulation
tend to magnify the effect of adverse shock, the former generates an asymmetric effect between a positive and a negative shock
on the land market, and the latter tends to raise the likelihood of a crisis, by raising the threshold value of liquidation.
相似文献
Charles Ka Yui LeungEmail: |
3.
Andros Gregoriou Christos Ioannidis Sugata Ghosh 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2009,23(3):271-283
In this paper, we examine the time variation in transaction costs relative to excess returns, in a panel consisting of 10
international equity indices over the time period 1984–2005. This is undertaken by extending the consumption CAPM (CCAPM)
model proposed by Campbell and Shiller (Rev. Financ. Stud. 1:195–228, 1988) to incorporate time varying proportional transaction costs. We rigorously address both the cross-country heterogeneity in
the estimated model and endogeneity. We find strong evidence that suggests transaction costs should be included as an additional
explanatory variable in the CCAPM. This leads to the conclusion that transaction costs should be included in asset pricing
models as their stochastic process impacts directly on private consumption expenditure.
相似文献
Andros GregoriouEmail: |
4.
Brent W. Ambrose Yildiray Yildirim 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,37(3):281-298
Previous research either assumes default free leases or leases subject to default risk using a structural approach. However,
structural credit risk models suffer from a common criticism that the firm’s asset value process is unobservable. We develop
a reduced form credit risk model for leases that avoids making assumptions regarding unobservable asset valuation processes.
Furthermore, we assume a correlated market and credit risk that provides us with a simple analytic formula for valuing defaultable
lease contracts. Numerical analysis reveals that tenant credit risk can have a substantial impact on the term structure of
leases. Finally, we use the model to demonstrate the implied lease term structure for a set of retail and financial firms
in the Fall of 2000.
相似文献
Yildiray YildirimEmail: |
5.
How do commodity futures respond to macroeconomic news? 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
Dieter Hess He Huang Alexandra Niessen 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2008,22(2):127-146
This paper investigates the impact of seventeen US macroeconomic announcements on two broad and representative commodity futures
indices. Based on a large sample from 1989 to 2005, we show that the daily price response of the CRB and GSCI commodity futures
indices to macroeconomic news is state-dependent. During recessions, news about higher (lower) inflation and real activity
lead to positive (negative) adjustments of commodity futures prices. In contrast, we find no significant reactions during
economic expansions. We attribute this asymmetric response to the state-dependent interpretation of macroeconomic news. Our
findings are robust to several alternative business cycle definitions.
相似文献
Alexandra Niessen (Corresponding author)Email: |
6.
Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Nadine Gatzert Hato Schmeiser Stefan Schuckmann 《Financial Markets and Portfolio Management》2008,22(3):241-258
In financial groups, enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly important in controlling and managing the different
independent legal entities in the group. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint default
probabilities of the group’s legal entities in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture of a financial group’s risk situation.
We further examine the impact of the type of dependence structure on results by comparing linear and nonlinear dependencies
using different copula concepts under certain distributional assumptions. Our results show that even if financial groups with
different dependence structures do have the same risk concentration factor, joint default probabilities of different sets
of subsidiaries can vary tremendously.
相似文献
Stefan SchuckmannEmail: |
7.
The Sensitivity of the Loss Given Default Rate to Systematic Risk: New Empirical Evidence on Bank Loans 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Stefano Caselli Stefano Gatti Francesca Querci 《Journal of Financial Services Research》2008,34(1):1-34
We verify the existence of a relation between loss given default rate (LGDR) and macroeconomic conditions by examining 11,649
bank loans concerning the Italian market. Using both the univariate and multivariate analyses, we pinpoint diverse macroeconomic
explanatory variables for LGDR on loans to households and SMEs. For households, LGDR is more sensitive to the default-to-loan
ratio, the unemployment rate, and household consumption. For SMEs, LGDR is influenced by the total number of employed people
and the GDP growth rate. These findings corroborate the Basel Committee’s provision that LGDR quantification process must
identify distinct downturn conditions for each supervisory asset class.
相似文献
Francesca Querci (Corresponding author)Email: |
8.
We evaluate the conditional performance of U.K. equity unit trusts using the approach of Lynch and Wachter (2007, 2008) relative to three conditional linear factor models. We find significant time variation in the conditional performance of
some trust portfolios and individual trusts using the lag term spread as the information variable. The conditional performance
of the trusts is countercyclical and larger trusts have more countercyclical performance than smaller trusts within certain
investment sectors. These patterns in conditional trust performance cannot be fully explained by the underlying securities
that the trusts hold.
相似文献
Jonathan FletcherEmail: |
9.
The Effect of Time-on-Market and Location on Search Costs and Anchoring: The Case of Single-Family Properties 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
Terrence M. Clauretie Paul D. Thistle 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(2):181-196
Regarding single-family residential properties purchased for investment (non-owner occupied) we examine whether out-of-state
buyers pay more than in-state buyers. We focus on the effects of search costs and anchoring. We use data on 2,828 Las Vegas
non-owner occupied (investor) residences, 40% of which are purchased by non-local investors. We find that the location of
the property affects the empirical results. Specifically, search cost and anchoring effects that appear significant when the
location of the property is ignored disappear when location is introduced as an independent variable.
相似文献
Paul D. ThistleEmail: |
10.
The contextual nature of the predictive power of statistically-based quarterly earnings models 总被引:2,自引:2,他引:0
We present new empirical evidence on the contextual nature of the predictive power of five statistically-based quarterly earnings
expectation models evaluated on a holdout period spanning the twelve quarters from 2000–2002. In marked contrast to extant
time-series work, the random walk with drift (RWD) model provides significantly more accurate pooled, one-step-ahead quarterly
earnings predictions for a sample of high-technology firms (n = 202). In similar predictive comparisons, the Griffin-Watts (GW) ARIMA model provides significantly more accurate quarterly
earnings predictions for a sample of regulated firms (n = 218). Finally, the RWD and GW ARIMA models jointly dominate the other expectation models (i.e., seasonal random walk with
drift, the Brown-Rozeff (BR) and Foster (F) ARIMA models) for a default sample of firms (n = 796). We provide supplementary analyses that document the: (1) increased frequency of the number of loss quarters experienced
by our sample firms in the holdout period (2000–2002) vis-à-vis the identification period (1990–1999); (2) reduced levels
of earnings persistence for our sample firms relative to earnings persistence factors computed by Baginski et al. (2003) during earlier time periods (1970s–1980s); (3) relative impact on the predictive ability of the five expectation models
conditioned upon the extent of analyst coverage of sample firms (i.e., no coverage, moderate coverage, and extensive coverage);
and (4) sensitivity of predictive performance across subsets of regulated firms with the BR ARIMA model providing the most
accurate predictions for utilities (n = 87) while the RWD model is superior for financial institutions (n = 131).
相似文献
Kenneth S. Lorek (Corresponding author)Email: |
G. Lee WillingerEmail: |
11.
Yalin Gündüz Torsten Lüdecke Marliese Uhrig-Homburg 《Journal of Financial Services Research》2007,32(3):141-159
Credit default swaps (CDSs) are among the most successful financial innovations of recent years, which is reflected in the
rapidly expanding market. CDS trading occurs in the over-the-counter market, which relies heavily on broker intermediation
to arrange trades. We provide empirical evidence that liquidity in the voice brokered market varies with the particulars of
the CDS contracts and that the differences in market structure is reflected in the costs of liquidity. Moreover, the brokered
and direct interdealer trading markets seem to be well integrated; thus the higher liquidity costs in the brokered market
may reflect the value of intermediation. Hybrid market structures, which combine voice brokerage with an electronic platform,
are discussed as a viable alternative to fully automated trading systems.
相似文献
Yalin GündüzEmail: |
12.
We examine the causal relation between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and financial performance. Consistent with past
studies, we find that the two variables appear to be related when we use traditional statistical techniques. However, using
a time series fixed effects approach, we find that the relation between CSR and financial performance is much weaker than
previously thought. We also find little evidence of causality between financial performance and narrower measures of social
performance that focus on stakeholder management. Our results suggest that strong stock market performance leads to greater
firm investment in aspects of CSR devoted to employee relations, but that CSR activities do not affect financial performance.
We conclude that CSR is driven more by unobservable firm characteristics than by financial performance.
相似文献
Edward NellingEmail: |
13.
Richard J. Buttimer Jr. Steven P. Clark Steven H. Ott 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(1):81-102
We model and examine the financial aspects of the land development process incorporating the industry practice of preselling
lots to builders through the use of option contracts as a risk management technique. Using contingent claims valuation, we
are able to determine endogenously the land value, presale option value, credits spreads and the effects of presales on debt
pricing and equity expected returns. We show that using presales options effectively shift market risk from the land developer
to the builder. Results from the model are consistent with the high rates of return on equity observed in empirical surveys;
they also suggest that developers may be justified in pursuing projects with substantially lower expected returns to equity
when a large number of lots can be presold. Additionally, we show that presales reduce default risk dramatically for leveraged
projects and can support a considerable reduction in the cost of construction financing. Large debt risk premiums are justified
for highly levered projects, which helps explain the use of mezzanine financing in the land development industry to reduce
expected default costs.
相似文献
Steven H. OttEmail: |
14.
Hsuan-Chu Lin 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2007,29(2):173-180
This paper identifies and corrects a typographical error in Black and Cox (J Finance 31:351–367, 1976). While the typographical error is seemingly trivial, the magnitude of the pricing error that it generates can be substantial.
相似文献
Hsuan-Chu LinEmail: |
15.
Timotheos Angelidis Alexandros Benos Stavros Degiannakis 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2007,28(2):187-201
This paper analyses several volatility models by examining their ability to forecast Value-at-Risk (VaR) for two different
time periods and two capitalization weighting schemes. Specifically, VaR is calculated for large and small capitalization
stocks, based on Dow Jones (DJ) Euro Stoxx indices and is modeled for long and short trading positions by using non parametric,
semi parametric and parametric methods. In order to choose one model among the various forecasting methods, a two-stage backtesting
procedure is implemented. In the first stage the unconditional coverage test is used to examine the statistical accuracy of
the models. In the second stage a loss function is applied to investigate whether the differences between the models, that
calculated accurately the VaR, are statistically significant. Under this framework, the combination of a parametric model
with the historical simulation produced robust results across the sample periods, market capitalization schemes, trading positions
and confidence levels and therefore there is a risk measure that is reliable.
相似文献
Stavros DegiannakisEmail: |
16.
Marat V. Kramin Saikat Nandi Alexander L. Shulman 《Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting》2008,31(4):359-378
This article presents a numerically efficient approach for constructing an interest rate lattice for multi-state variable
multi-factor term structure models in the Makovian HJM [Econometrica 70 (1992) 77] framework based on Monte Carlo simulation and an advanced extension to the Markov Chain Approximation technique. The
proposed method is a mix of Monte Carlo and lattice-based methods and combines the best from both of them. It provides significant
computational advantages and flexibility with respect to many existing multi-factor model implementations for interest rates
derivatives valuation and hedging in the HJM framework.
相似文献
Alexander L. ShulmanEmail: |
17.
This paper examines the relationship between the volatility implied in option prices and the subsequently realized volatility
by using the S&P/ASX 200 index options (XJO) traded on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) during a period of 5 years. Unlike
stock index options such as the S&P 100 index options in the US market, the S&P/ASX 200 index options are traded infrequently
and in low volumes, and have a long maturity cycle. Thus an errors-in-variables problem for measurement of implied volatility
is more likely to exist. After accounting for this problem by instrumental variable method, it is found that both call and
put implied volatilities are superior to historical volatility in forecasting future realized volatility. Moreover, implied
call volatility is nearly an unbiased forecast of future volatility.
相似文献
Steven LiEmail: |
18.
This article introduces the 2007 Maastricht-Cambridge-MIT Symposium articles in this special issue. The introduction not only
briefly describes each of the four articles from that symposium included in this special issue, but also describes the symposium
including links to other papers and presentations of the symposium not published in this issue.
相似文献
David Geltner (Corresponding author)Email: |
19.
Piet M. A. Eichholtz Nils Kok Roger Otten 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2008,36(4):405-426
We study the drivers of executive compensation in the listed UK property sector. The UK provides an excellent opportunity
to analyze executive compensation due to high transparency in the different components of executive compensation. We show that company size is the most important variable in explaining the level of executive compensation. We find that
absolute and relative share performance significantly explains long-term compensation, that management style has a distinct
influence on the level of executive compensation, and that using alternative monitoring mechanisms (institutional shareholders,
debtholders, and outside directors) leads to higher levels of long-term incentives. We find only weak evidence of pay-performance
sensitivity for both cash and long-term compensation. Executive shareholdings provide a much stronger link between pay and
performance than does executive compensation.
相似文献
Piet M. A. EichholtzEmail: |
20.
Seow Eng Ong Tien Foo Sing Alan Hwee Loon Teo 《The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics》2007,35(3):253-280
This paper extends the extant literature in understanding the effects of equity and debt on delinquency and default by focusing
on a variant of borrower equity where part of equity is “protected”. The CPF scheme in Singapore stipulates that the refund
of borrower’s retirement funds utilized for property purchase prior to September 2002 takes priority over loan obligations.
A decision to utilize CPF for property purchase actually increases ex post delinquency and default risk as it effectively
reduces cash equity commitment. In particular, any erosion in house value that places protected equity at risk translates
into potential wealth reduction or financial liability for the borrower. While loss aversion is evident for non-distressed
sellers, the effect of equity losses for distressed borrowers is not as clear. Our research suggests that averting losses
in committed equity may be a secondary consideration for borrower subject to income shocks, recognizing that delinquency and
default are precursors to foreclosure. Interestingly, we find that the borrowers are strongly averse to incurring protected
equity-induced wealth loss or financial liability. This study suggests that the first-lien “anomaly” associated with CPF refund
may reduce delinquency and default risks for mortgage backed securities.
相似文献
Seow Eng OngEmail: |