Intraday periodicity, calendar and announcement effects in Euro exchange rate volatility

This paper provides an analysis of intraday volatility using 5-min returns for Euro-Dollar, Euro-Sterling and Euro-Yen exchange rates, and therefore a new market setting. This includes a comparison of the performance of the Fourier flexible form (FFF) intraday volatility filter with an alternative cubic spline approach in the modelling of high frequency exchange rate volatility. Analysis of various potential calendar effects and seasonal chronological changes reveals that although such effects cause deviations from the average intraday volatility pattern, these intraday timing effects are in many cases only marginally statistically significant and are insignificant in economic terms. Results for the cubic spline approach imply that significant macroeconomic announcement effects are larger and far more quickly absorbed into exchange rates than is suggested by the FFF model, and underscores the advantage of the cubic spline in permitting the periodicity in intraday volatility to be more closely identified. Further analysis of macroeconomic announcement effects on volatility by country of origin (including the US, Eurozone, UK, Germany, France and Japan) reveals that the predominant reactions occur in response to US macroeconomic news, but that Eurozone, German and UK announcements also cause significant volatility reactions. Furthermore, Eurozone announcements are found to impact significantly upon volatility in the pre-announcement period.     

Efficiency and Market Power Gains in Bank Megamergers: Evidence from Value Line Forecasts

This paper examines whether gains in bank megamergers occur due to efficiency improvements or the exercise of market power using financial statement line item forecasts from Value Line to infer the effect of the merger on prices and quantities. The average megamerger is associated with cost‐efficiency improvements. In the cross‐section, efficiency gains are limited to market expansion mergers while market overlap mergers and Too‐Big‐To‐Fail (TBTF) mergers exhibit monopoly gains. Efficiency gains dissipate when the resulting megabank size exceeds $150 billion in assets or 1.5% of gross domestic product indicating that banks thought to be TBTF are likely to be “Too‐Big‐To‐Be‐Efficient.”     

Estimation of cost efficiencies from mergers: application to US radio

This article estimates fixed‐cost efficiencies from mergers using a dynamic oligopoly model in which mergers and repositioning of products are endogenous. The inference is based on revealed preference approach selecting cost synergies that rationalize observed merger decisions. The estimates can be used to assess the total welfare impact of retrospective and counterfactual mergers. The framework is applied to estimate cost efficiencies after the 1996 deregulation of U.S. radio industry. Within the period of 1996 to 2006 the cost savings resulting from mergers amount to $1.2 billion per year (equally split across economies of scale and within‐format cost synergies).     

Consolidation and efficiency in the US life insurance industry

This paper examines the relationship between mergers and acquisitions, efficiency, and scale economies in the US life insurance industry. We estimate cost and revenue efficiency over the period 1988–1995 using data envelopment analysis (DEA). The Malmquist methodology is used to measure changes in efficiency over time. We find that acquired firms achieve greater efficiency gains than firms that have not been involved in mergers or acquisitions. Firms operating with non-decreasing returns to scale (NDRS) and financially vulnerable firms are more likely to be acquisition targets. Overall, mergers and acquisitions in the life insurance industry have had a beneficial effect on efficiency.     

The Spinoff and Merger Ex-Date Effects

This article shows that some of the wealth gains from financial decisions involving changes in security form occur on predictable ex dates. For a sample of 113 spinoffs during 1964 to 90, we document an average excess return of 3.0 percent on ex dates, roughly the same magnitude as the average announcement-date return. We conjecture that the spinoff ex-date return arises because the parent and subsidiary stocks attract different investors who prefer to buy the separated shares after the ex date. We also document that, on average, the target shareholders in stock-for-stock mergers earn an excess return of 1.5 percent on merger ex dates.     

The success of bank mergers revisited. An assessment based on a matching strategy

The question of whether or not mergers and acquisitions have helped to enhance banks' efficiency and profitability has not yet been conclusively resolved in the literature. We argue that this is partly due to severe methodological problems involved. In this study we analyze the effect of German bank mergers from the period 1995-2000 on the banks' profitability and cost efficiency. We suggest a new matching strategy to control for the selection effects arising from the fact that pre-dominantly under-performing banks engage in mergers. Our results indicate a neutral effect of mergers on profitability and cost efficiency. Comparing our results with those obtained from a naive performance comparison of merging and non-merging banks indicates a severe negative selection bias with regard to the latter.     

会计师事务所合并与审计定价——基于2003—2009年十起合并案面板数据的研究

会计师事务所合并究竟是会提高还是会降低审计收费,取决于合并后事务所声誉及市场势力提升所带来的审计溢价与规模效应所导致的审计成本降低两方面孰者相对占优。文章以我国2003—2009年间十起事务所合并案为对象,利用其上市公司客户在事务所合并前后各2年的面板数据,检验了事务所合并对审计定价的影响。结果发现,事务所合并后,其审计收费显著提高。对所有事务所客户审计费用的横向比较也印证了上述结论。研究还发现,事务所合并后第一年审计收费的提升较第二年更为明显;就稳定客户数据而言,本土事务所之间合并对审计定价的影响不如涉及"四大"的合并显著;此外,新设合并与吸收合并对审计定价的影响没有显著差异。     

The Impact of Mergers and Acquisitions on the Efficiency of the US Banking Industry: Further Evidence

Abstract:  Using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA), this study investigates the cost and profit efficiency effects of bank mergers on the US banking industry. We also use the non-parametric technique of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to evaluate the production structure of merged and non-merged banks. The empirical results indicate that mergers have improved the cost and profit efficiencies of banks. Further, evidence shows that merged banks have lower costs than non-merged banks because they are using the most efficient technology available (technical efficiency) as well as a cost minimizing input mix (allocative efficiency). The results suggest that there is an economic rational for future mergers in the banking industry. Finally, mergers may allow the banking industry to take advantage of the opportunities created by improved technology.     

Understanding partial mergers in Japan

Since the late 1990s, Japan has witnessed a substantial increase of partial mergers where two or more firms spin off whole operations in the same business and combine them into a joint venture (JV). This paper provides the first academic evidence on this phenomenon. I find that partial mergers normally occur as a response to negative economic shocks by firms that are larger and more diversified than firms in total mergers. An event study identifies positive and significant returns to partial merger announcements. Unlike total mergers whose value accrues mostly to the shareholders of small (acquired) firms, large and small firms in partial mergers receive comparable returns, which are particularly large to firms forming an equally owned JV. This study also finds that partial mergers are often ex post transformed, with equity sale between partners being the main source of change.     

The effect of accounting firm mergers on the market for audit services: New Zealand evidence

This article examines the outcomes of accounting firm mergers using data about the frequency of audit switches, the numbers of partners in the respective firms, and perceptions revealed in interviews with partners. Evidence from client switches does not show any evidence that the mergers were followed by cost reductions, or of collusion to force prices up. The effects of the mergers appear to have been elsewhere—the merging firms reduced partner numbers substantially, increasing partner leverage so that individual remaining partners were better off. Data from interviews confirm these findings, and show that the culture of individual firms had a significant effect on determining which group of partners controlled the merged firm.     

Downstream mergers and producer's capacity choice: why bake a larger pie when getting a smaller slice?

In this article, the effect of downstream horizontal mergers on the upstream producer's capacity choice was studied. Contrary to conventional wisdom, I find a nonmonotonic relationship: horizontal mergers induce a higher upstream capacity if the cost of capacity is low, and a lower upstream capacity if this cost is high. This result is explained by decomposing the total effect into two competing effects: a change in holdup and a change in bargaining erosion.     

The efficiency effects of bank mergers: An overview of case studies of nine mergers

This paper summarizes nine case studies, by nine authors, on the efficiency effects of bank mergers. The mergers selected for study were ones that seemed relatively likely to yield efficiency gains. That is, they involved relatively large banks generally with substantial market overlap, and most occurred during the early 1990s when efficiency was getting a lot of attention in banking. All nine of the mergers resulted in significant cost cutting in line with premerger projections. Four of the nine mergers were clearly successful in improving cost efficiency but five were not. It is not possible to isolate specific factors from these mergers that are most likely to yield efficiency gains, but the most frequent and serious problem was unexpected difficulty in integrating data processing systems and operations.     

Information asymmetry,the cost of debt,and credit events: Evidence from quasi-random analyst disappearances

We hypothesize that greater information asymmetry causes greater losses to debtholders. To test this, we identify exogenous increases in information asymmetry using the loss of an analyst that results from broker closures and broker mergers. We find that the loss of an analyst causes the cost of debt to increase by 25 basis points for treatment firms compared to control firms, and the rate of credit events (e.g., defaults) is roughly 100–150% higher. These results are driven by firms that are more sensitive to changes in information (e.g., less analyst coverage). The evidence is broadly consistent with both financing and monitoring channels, although only a financing channel explains the impact of the loss of an analyst on firms' cost of debt.     

Board structure,mergers, and shareholder wealth: A study of the mutual fund industry

We study mutual fund mergers between 1999 and 2001 to understand the role and effectiveness of fund boards. Some fund mergers—typically across-family mergers—benefit target shareholders but are costly to target fund directors. Such mergers are more likely when funds underperform and their boards have a larger percentage of independent trustees, suggesting that more-independent boards tolerate less underperformance before initiating across-family mergers. This effect is most pronounced when all of the fund's directors are independent, not the 75% level of independence required by the SEC. Higher-paid target fund boards are less likely to approve across-family mergers that cause substantial reductions in their compensation.     

Loan sales, implicit contracts, and bank structure

We document some recent changes in the market for loan sales. We then test the main implications of several prevailing theories, using a Tobit model to relate loan sales and purchases to bank size, capital, risk, and funding mode. The results, though not definitive, broadly confirm the Pennacchi funding cost model of sales. Other data cast doubt on the importance of mergers and acquisitions for this market and on the comparability of different data sources.     

Efficiencies brewed: pricing and consolidation in the US beer industry

Merger efficiencies provide the primary justification for why mergers of competitors may benefit consumers. Surprisingly, there is little evidence that efficiencies can offset incentives to raise prices following mergers. We estimate the effects of increased concentration and efficiencies on pricing by using panel scanner data and geographic variation in how the merger of the brewers Miller and Coors was expected to increase concentration and reduce costs. All else equal, the average predicted increase in concentration led to price increases of 2%, but at the mean this was offset by a nearly equal and opposite efficiency effect.     

Bank Mergers, Competition, and Liquidity

We model the impact of bank mergers on loan competition, reserve holdings, and aggregate liquidity. A merger changes the distribution of liquidity shocks and creates an internal money market, leading to financial cost efficiencies and more precise estimates of liquidity needs. The merged banks may increase their reserve holdings through an internalization effect or decrease them because of a diversification effect. The merger also affects loan market competition, which in turn modifies the distribution of bank sizes and aggregate liquidity needs. Mergers among large banks tend to increase aggregate liquidity needs and thus the public provision of liquidity through monetary operations of the central bank.     

Cost Inefficiency,Size of Firms and Takeovers

This study, using the Cox proportional hazards model, finds that the risk of takeover rises with cost inefficiency. It also finds that a firm faces a significantly higher risk of takeover if its cost performance lags behind its industry benchmark. Moreover, these findings appear to be remarkably stable over the nearly two decades spanned by the sample. The effect of the variables used to measure the risk-size relationship, however, indicates temporal changes. Lastly, the study presents evidence from fixed-effects models of ex post cost efficiency improvements that support the hypothesis that takeover targets are selected based on the potential for improvement.     

Leverage changes and growth options in mergers and acquisitions

We develop and empirically test a trade-off model for the analysis of leverage changes in mergers and acquisitions. Our study extends prior findings of a post-merger increase in leverage for the acquiring firm, by linking this leverage increase to merging firms that are less correlated, create significantly larger growth options, and have lower bankruptcy costs and lower volatility. Specifically, we show that acquiring firms are more likely to finance diversifying acquisitions with debt as equity holders exploit the increased debt capacity with higher leverage resulting in total merger gains that are positively associated with financial synergies. We also provide evidence of a U-shaped relationship between growth options and leverage changes theoretically and empirically in the context of mergers.     

Riding the merger wave: Uncertainty,reduced monitoring,and bad acquisitions

We show that acquisitions initiated during periods of high merger activity (“merger waves”) are accompanied by poorer quality of analysts' forecasts, greater uncertainty, and weaker CEO turnover-performance sensitivity. These conditions imply reduced monitoring and lower penalties for initiating inefficient mergers. Therefore, merger waves may foster agency-driven behavior, which, along with managerial herding, could lead to worse mergers. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that the average long-term performance of acquisitions initiated during merger waves is significantly worse. We also find that corporate governance of in-wave acquirers is weaker, suggesting that agency problems may be present in merger wave acquisitions.