我国证券市场投资者的认知偏差分析

投资者作为证券市场的行为主体,其最主要的特征就是依据市场信息做出投资决策.目前我国证券市场上投资者典型地存在"投资者认知偏差"问题.本文对我国证券市场投资者的构成和认知偏差进行了分析,描述了我国证券市场中投资者的结构特征,同时论证了投资者具有损失厌恶与风险偏好共同存在、过度自信、后悔厌恶、可用性偏差等认知偏差.     

心理认知偏差:中小散户亏损的起源

一、中小散户普遍存在心理认知偏差 在中国证券市场上,中小散户通常表现出更大的非理性行为,具体包括:包括过度自信、过度反应、反应不足、损失厌恶、后见之明、后悔厌恶、自我归因、处置效应、自我控制等.在这些非理性内因支配下,投资者倾向于追涨杀跌、过度交易、频繁买卖、过早买入、过早卖出、处置行为等非理性交易.     

证券市场监管者非理性行为研究

笔者运用已有的行为金融学方法研究证券市场监管者的非理性问题,通过采用有情境元素的问卷调查法,向监管部门及其他市场参与者发放问卷并根据问卷的数据,对监管者和市场参与者的非理性行为进行了实证分析。结果表明:我国证券市场的市场参与者,普遍存在着代表性偏见、锚定和调整效应、证实性偏差、框定陷阱、过度自信、损失厌恶、后悔厌恶、处置效应、沉没成本偏差、心理账户、模糊厌恶等偏差,这些偏差影响并制约着他们的决策行为。其中,监管者的后悔厌恶最明显,其他依次为锚定和调整效应,损失厌恶,处理效应,框架效应,心理账户,代表性偏见,模糊厌恶,过度自信等。分析表明:从总体上看,监管者与被监管者的非理性程度没有显著差异。由此,笔者提出了监管者处理自身和其他市场参与者非理性行为的思路和对策:对自己的非理性要警觉与预防;对其他市场参与者的非理性在监管过程中要予以重视。     

心理认知偏差:中小散户亏损的起源

一、中小散户普遍存在心理认知偏差在中国证券市场上,中小散户通常表现出更大的非理性行为,具体包括:包括过度自信、过度反应、反应不足、损失厌恶、后见之明、后悔厌恶、自我归因、处置效应、自我控制等。在这些非理性内因支配下,投资者倾向于追涨杀跌、过度交易、频繁买卖、过早买入、过早卖出、处置行为等非理性交易。行为金融学认为,中小散户非理性行为源于其心理认知偏差,包括启发式偏差和框架依赖偏差两个方面。启发式即经验法则,依靠经验法则,人们能够快速决策,但常会导致一些不自觉的偏差,即“启发式”偏差。根据成因的不同,可细分…     

中国大众投资者心理误区分析

大众投资者是构成证券市场的主体部分,但是其收益却是最差的.导致大众投资者失败的原因有很多,心理误区是其中最重要的因素.只有对大众投资者的心理误区有深刻的了解和研究,才能有目的地克服,从而减少亏损,获取收益.大众投资者的心理误区主要表现为贪婪、恐惧、损失厌恶和风险偏好、羊群效应、投机心理、过度自信,等等     

中国证券市场个人投资者过度自信行为分析

本文在国内外相关研究的基础上,运用行为金融学相关理论,结合数据案例对我国证券市场上个人投资者的过度自信行为进行了分析,结果表明我国证券市场上个人投资者存在过度自信倾向,并因"归因偏差"、"事后诸葛亮"、"性别差异"、"高换手率"等特征的不同而对投资者过度自信产生不同程度的影响。     

机构投资者与个人投资者过度自信行为比较研究

本文首先基于我国A股市场机构股票持有数据,构建了不同的投资组合来区分机构投资者与个人投资者的投资行为。然后运用Granger因果检验与SUR估计,探讨了我国证券市场机构投资者与个人投资者是否具有过度自信行为,结果表明无论是机构投资者还是个人投资者在不同市场状态下都存在交易过多的过度自信认知偏差。并且我国证券市场上个人投资者与机构投资者的过度自信程度在不同的市场状态下并无明显差异。最后提出了相关政策建议。     

管理者过度自信与企业决策相关研究述评

<正>过度自信是人们普遍表现出的一种经常性心理偏好,而企业管理者往往比一般人表现出更强的过度自信。管理者过度自信是其自身效应最大化的需要也是市场竞争选择的结果,同时也受到企业决策环境和治理环境的影响。管理者过度自信的行为偏差会影响到企业融资与投资决策,进而会对企业价值造成影响。本文对国内外管理者过度自信与企业决策的相关理论和     

管理者过度自信与资本结构研究中应关注的几个问题

管理者过度自信对资本结构的影响是近年来颇受学术界关注的一个前沿问题。本文对管理者过度自信的度量、修正以及管理者过度自信与资本结构的内生性和管理者过度自信与其他心理偏差的整合研究等问题进行了初步探讨,提出了一定的看法和观点。     

从行为金融角度分析股票投资行为

证券市场普通投资者行为的非理性,使市场中产生了许多传统经济学不能解释的现象。本文从投资者的从众心理、过度自信等方面解释相关现象,并在行为金融理论下提出相关建议。     

旅游企业与社区居民利益冲突及协调博弈研究

随着旅游业发展的深入,旅游企业与社区居民的利益冲突及协调问题成为影响旅游业发展的重点问题。从旅游企业和社区居民的单次博弈入手建立模型,并通过重复博弈模型分析,探索实现利益协调的路径。提出完善社区居民旅游开发参与机制和构建收益均衡分配机制,解决旅游企业与社区居民的利益协调问题。     

East and west and north and south : A preliminary model

The Brandt report and other proposals for a new North-South world order continue to be the focus of lively debate, yet it is often argued that little concrete has emerged from their recommendations. A major reason for this, the author argues, is that the East-West conflict component is not sufficiently taken into consideration-East-West tensions are a severe constraint on and a determining factor of North-South relations. Using influence diagrams, the author develops a flexible framework for discussion and assessment of N/S-E/W relations.     

Stock and Bond Liquidity and its Effect on Prices and Financial Policies

An asset is liquid if it can be traded at the prevailing market price quickly and at low cost. We show that in addition to risk, liquidity affects asset prices and returns. Theories of asset pricing suggest that the expected return of an asset is increasing in its risk, because risk-averse investors require compensation for bearing more risk. Because investors are also averse to the costs of illiquidity and want to be compensated for bearing them, asset returns are increasing in illiquidity. Thus, asset prices should depend on two asset characteristics: risk and liquidity. This paper surveys research on the effects of liquidity on asset prices and returns, showing that liquidity is an important factor in capital asset pricing.     

垄断与通货膨胀:理论与证据

本文从微观层面构建多维状态非线性系统理论模型,应用非线性模型预测控制方法研究了垄断与通货膨胀之间的关系。理论分析表明,垄断与通胀存在明显的正向关系。本文进一步应用变系数半参数估计方法为上述理论预期提供了经验支持,并发现我国在生产效率较低的行业中,垄断会导致显著的通胀效应,但这种效应在生产效率较高的行业中则明显减弱。上述结论对我国当前“下限保增长、上限防通胀”的宏观调控目标具有重要的启示意义。     

教育与资本怎样的前景怎样的现实

来自政府的声音: "动员各种社会资源,发展教育" 此次论坛上财政部长助理张少春的发言是最受关注的发言之一.他的演讲传达出的信息有这样几方面:第一,谈到现实,他认为全社会对教育的巨大需求与我国公共投入不足已成为我国教育事业发展的突出矛盾.近年来,以公共部门投入为主,多渠道筹措教育经费的教育投入机制成为解决这一问题的重要途径,也使得公共部门与私营部门在教育领域的合作日益密切.第二,谈到前景,他认为,1.中国经济持续、快速的增长对高技能人才产生巨大的需求,这为私营部门的参与提供了广阔空间.2.随着公共财政职能的不断完善,财政资金将在各项教育事业中重新进行分配,进一步优化财政支出结构,提高资金的使用效率.在"十一五"期间,我国将把公共支出的重点转移到农村.我们将逐步把全体农村适龄儿童的义务教育全部纳入公共财政体制.     

Fast and slow cancellations and trader behavior

We investigate how short-lived liquidity supply due to order cancellations affects the order-placement behavior of slow traders. When order cancellations increase, slow traders submit fewer and less aggressive orders. Both short- and long-lived liquidity supply have positive effects on the market overall, reducing spreads and increasing depth. We conclude that it is not necessary to require limit orders to have a minimum lifespan. We develop econometric and machine-learning frameworks that allow traders to predict whether a quote is likely to have a short or long life, increasing the ability of slow traders to respond strategically to changing order flow.     

Amplification and asymmetry in crashes and frenzies

We often observe disproportionate reactions to tangible information in large stock price movements. Moreover these movements feature an asymmetry: the number of crashes is more than that of frenzies in the S&P 500 index. This paper offers an explanation for these two characteristics of large movements in which hedging (portfolio insurance) causes amplified price reactions to news and liquidity shocks as well as an asymmetry biased towards crashes. Risk aversion of traders is shown to be essential for the asymmetry of price movements. Also, we show that differential information can enhance both amplification and asymmetry delivered by hedging. This paper is based on part of my Ph.D. thesis submitted to the University of Minnesota. I am grateful to Andy McLennan and Jan Werner for their valuable advice and unwavering support. Also, I would like thank Mehmet Barlo, Michele Boldrin, Partha Chatterjee, Mehmet Ozhabes, Dimitrios Tsomocos and seminar participants at the University of Minnesota, the MEA and the MFA Meetings in St Louis for helpful comments. Comments on a previous draft by an anonymous referee greatly improved the presentation of this paper. Financial support from William W. Stout Fellowship is gratefully acknowledged.     

Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage-free pricing theory.     

Noise trading and prime and score premiums

This paper documents that a common element drives the time-series variation of the premium pricing of Primes and Scores. I argue that this common element is noise trading. The noise trading model of Delong, Shleifer, Summers and Waldmann (1990) predicts that returns on assets that are predominantly traded by noise traders will be correlated, since the misperceptions of noise traders are cross-sectionally correlated. Consistent with the noise trading hypothesis, changes in the average premium of Primes and Scores, which are predominantly traded by individual investors, are correlated with both changes in average discounts of closed-end funds and small firms returns. These empirical facts provide additional evidence that noise traders can affect security prices.