Accounting Losses and Earnings Response Coefficients: The Impact of Leverage and Growth Opportunities

This paper investigates how accounting losses affect the relationship between accounting earnings and stock returns, i.e. earnings response coefficients (ERCs), in different leverage and growth categories. In a sample of NYSE firms between 1975 and 1990, the exclusion of losses improves the ERCs considerably. While the impact of losses on ERCs is highest in the subgroup including high growth opportunity firms, the exclusion of losses does not improve ERCs as significantly among firms with low growth opportunities. The results further support the hypothesis that the impact of losses on ERCs is different in different financial leverage subgroups. The measured increase in ERCs is most significant among the least levered firms. The observation that the impact of losses on ERCs is related to growth opportunities and financial leverage is clearly observable also in different size categories. The effects of growth opportunities and financial leverage are also incrementally important with respect to each other. In general, the results indicate that the impact of growth opportunities and financial leverage on ERCs is clearly observable especially when losses and profits are analyzed separately.     

Uncertainty Associated with Future Environmental Costs and the Market's Differential Response to Earnings Information

This study examines whether the uncertainty arising from a firm's exposure to future environmental costs (environmental uncertainty) affects the market's price sensitivity to reported earnings. Specifically, when environmental uncertainty is significantly high, are investors more responsive to reported earnings released by 'high-polluting' firms than reported earnings announced by 'low-polluting' firms within the same industry? The initial impact of Title IV (the acid rain provisions) of the 1990 Clean Air Act Amendments (1990 CAAA) on the US electric utility industry provides the research setting required to isolate the effects of environmental uncertainty while addressing this question. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that the earnings response coefficients (ERCs) of high-polluting electric utilities are significantly greater than those of their low-polluting counterparts during a predicted period of elevated environmental uncertainty. In adjoining sample years associated with lower environmental uncertainty, we observe no statistical difference in the magnitude of the ERCs between these two groups. In addition, the study's findings suggest that the magnitude of the ERC is increasing in the firm's exposure to future environmental costs, after controlling for other factors that potentially affect ERCs.     

Supplier Financing and Earnings Quality

In this paper we investigate the effect of earnings quality on supplier credit in a sample of small and medium‐sized firms. After controlling for other determinants of trade credit, we show that firms whose earnings present lower variability, higher smoothing and predictability, and higher accruals quality have access to more trade credit from suppliers. This association suggests that earnings attributes associated to lower volatility and higher precision with respect to cash flows facilitate access to trade credit.     

Income Smoothing, Earnings Quality and Firm Valuation

Abstract:   This study argues that lower variability of earnings does not guarantee income smoothers' higher firm values. Instead, smoothers' earnings should be more value‐relevant if they are of high quality, i.e., earnings quality should be considered simultaneously. Sample firms are divided into four groups: quality earnings smoothers, quality earnings non‐smoothers, non‐quality earnings smoothers, and non‐quality earnings non‐smoothers. Value relevance of reported earnings is then studied using both the levels and the changes approaches with indicator variables. Results show quality earnings smoothers have the highest price‐earnings multiple while non‐quality non‐smoothers have the lowest price‐earnings multiple.     

Earnings Co-movements and the Informativeness of Earnings

We examine the informativeness of earnings in the presence of earnings co-movements. Many theoretical studies infer that the more a firm's earnings move with the market the less weight investors need to place on those earnings, thus rendering them less informative. On the other hand, managers have less opportunity to bias the earnings signal the more earnings co-move, making them more reliable. We measure earnings co-movement using an industry–firm pairing correlational technique. Overall our results show both the degree of co-movement and the ordering of earnings announcements impacts on the informativeness of earnings as indicated by earnings response coefficients. Earnings responses are larger for firms that report earnings before their most highly correlated industry peer, but the responses are reduced as earnings co-movement increases. We interpret our results to indicate that the more earnings co-move with an industry peer the less informative earnings become, but only when the peer firm is able to obtain information at a later date.     

Earnings Quality Measures and Excess Returns

This paper examines how commonly used earnings quality measures fulfill a key objective of financial reporting, i.e., improving decision usefulness for investors. We propose a stock‐price‐based measure for assessing the quality of earnings quality measures. We predict that firms with higher earnings quality will be less mispriced than other firms. Mispricing is measured by the difference of the mean absolute excess returns of portfolios formed on high and low values of a measure. We examine persistence, predictability, two measures of smoothness, abnormal accruals, accruals quality, earnings response coefficient and value relevance. For a large sample of US non‐financial firms over the period 1988–2007, we show that all measures except for smoothness are negatively associated with absolute excess returns, suggesting that smoothness is generally a favorable attribute of earnings. Accruals measures generate the largest spread in absolute excess returns, followed by smoothness and market‐based measures. These results lend support to the widespread use of accruals measures as overall measures of earnings quality in the literature.     

Performance, Growth and Earnings Management

We study the relationship between the amount of managed earnings and firms’ earnings performance and expected growth in a reporting model, where managers manipulate earnings to influence the valuation of firms’ equity while bearing a cost that is increasing and convex in the amount of managed earnings. In the unique revealing equilibrium to the model, firms with higher performance and growth over-report earnings by a larger amount because price responsiveness increases with earnings performance and growth. And earnings quality, defined as the proportion of true economic earnings in total reported earnings, increases with earnings performance but decreases with earnings growth. We conduct empirical tests on a large sample and a restatement sample using different proxies for earnings management. Results from the large sample tests support our predictions while results from the restatement sample tests are mixed. Our study provides an alternative explanation to the positive relationship between discretionary accruals estimated from the Jones model and firms’ performance and growth.     

Internal versus External Equity Funding Sources and Earnings Response Coefficients

Because of transactions costs andinvestor/manager information asymmetries, internallygenerated funds should be less costly than fundsraised by issuing common shares. This suggests thatas firms use more internal funds relative toexternal equity, their costs of equity capital willfall and the rate the market uses to discountunexpected earnings of such firms will be lower. Wehypothesize that (1) firms having a higherproportion of internal to external equitywill have larger earnings response coefficients, and(2) this effect will be magnified for high growthfirms since the disparity between inside informationand publicly available information about high growthfirms' investment opportunities is greatest. Wefind support for both hypotheses using pooled andannual cross-sectional regressions after controllingfor other determinants of ERCs. The results arealso generally robust to alternative measures of themix of equity funding sources and of unexpectedearnings and to consideration of other factorsaffecting the mix of equity capital.     

Abnormal Returns from Predicting Earnings Thresholds

This study examines the performance of a trading strategy based on the prediction of firms concurrently reporting a positive earnings change and meeting analysts’ earnings forecasts. The evidence indicates that a model predicting both earnings thresholds concurrently can yield excess returns that are incremental to predicting only one earnings threshold. Further, I find that the prediction of forecast errors is relatively more important than predicting earnings changes as the incremental benefit from predicting earnings changes concurrently with forecast errors is small relative to a model that predicts only forecast errors. The results hold while controlling for various risk factors and known anomalies.     

Private Equity Involvement and Earnings Quality

Abstract:  This paper examines the relation between private equity (PE) investors' involvement and their portfolio firms' earnings quality. We operationalize earnings quality through comparative analyses of conditional loss recognition timeliness. For a sample of unlisted Belgian firms, we find that PE involvement increases a firm's willingness to recognize losses more timely as compared to industry, size and life-cycle matched non-PE backed firms. Further, we document more powerful earnings quality effects for firms backed by independent and captive PE-investors as compared to firms backed by government-related PE-investors. Finally, we find no systematic variation in earnings quality across different levels of PE ownership. Our results are robust to the inclusion of various controls and remain unaffected when we consider the endogeneity of PE investments and compare pre- and post PE investment years. The current results provide novel evidence towards the understanding of PE investors' governance implications for portfolio firms' earnings quality.