基于经营决策的财务预警体系构建

以Z计分模型为代表的财务风险预警多元判别模型,是根据上市公司在特定时间段的资料进行统计计算得出的。本文从中小型非上市企业内部决策的实用性角度,提出建立适合企业自身特点的单变量财务预警分析模型,以降低企业的经营与决策风险。     

关于ST风险预警模型文献综述 ——基于股权特征和内部控制视角

纵观国内外研究状况,关于财务风险预警模型的研究主要有两类:传统统计类模型构建和人工智能型模型构建.传统统计类模型包括一元判别模型、多元判别模型、条件概率模型、生存分析模型等.人工智能型模型包括神经网络模型、遗传算法模型、支持向量机模型等.     

基于生存分析的我国上市公司财务预警研究

本文运用生存分析模型和上市公司的年报数据建立财务预警模型,并分别从样本内和样本外验证了财务预警模型的预测效果,以期该模型能为企业管理层提供更有效的决策参考依据和财务数据支持,帮助企业及时调整经营战略和化解财务风险。     

企业财务预警模型评析

企业通过构建财务预警模型,能及时掌握企业的有关财务风险的信息,有效地防范和化解财务风险,对保证企业持续、健康、有效地经营具有重要的作用。本文对财务预警模型进行了规范性研究。首先,概述了财务预警的内涵和作用,并根据财务预警模型是否具有自我学习功能划分为静态预警模型和动态预警模型。其次,通过这两大类财务预警模型和各个具体模型的比较评析,发现财务预警模型的局限性,并针对这些局限性,结合我国具体国情,对如何构建切合企业实际的财务预警模型提出了建议和对策。     

以主成分分析法构建企业财务危机预警模型

财务危机预警模型的建立,对企业预防和化解财务危机,提高其危机预警管理水平有着重要的意义.目前国内外学者对财务危机预警模型的研究主要集中在多元回归分析模型、多元判别分析模型、神经网络预警模型等模型的构建上,本文将采用主成分分析法,利用上市公司财务数据,构建财务危机预警模型.     

论企业财务预警系统模型构建

财务预警系统是一个全新的探索性研究领域,我国不管在理论上还是实践上还处于起步阶段.企业财务预警系统是企业财务管理的重要组成部分,通过财务预警模型指标系统的构建、企业财务预警模型的指数法与临界值的确定、各指标权重系数的确定,建立了财务预警综合指数模型.     

基于Logistic模型的中小上市公司财务风险预警研究

随着社会主义市场经济的深入发展,中小上市企业有必要建立一套有效的财务危机预警机制.本文建立Logistic回归模型,以2008-2016年40家中小上市公司为样本,对财务指标及非财务指标分析后提取2个因子,得到财务风险预警模型.带回样本数据证明模型综合准确率可达81％,具有较好的预警作用.     

基于主成分法的电子信息制造企业财务预警研究

由于市场竞争的加剧,企业所面临的经营风险、财务风险日益增大.在此环境下,财务预警能够有效地避免和分散这些风险.本文以我国电子信息制造上市公司为研究对象,构建了适应电子信息制造行业的财务预警指标体系,通过主成分法对84家电子信息制造企业进行了财务状况实证研究,创建了适应其特点的财务风险预警模型,并对两年的判别效果进行了验证.实证分析表明:本文构建的财务预警模型对于防范企业财务风险是有效的,主成分法的判别准确率较为理想.     

基于Logistic模型的机械制造业上市公司财务预警应用与分析

本文对Logistic回归模型应用于财务预警应用与分析做了深入理论分析,并以机械行业最新财务统计数据作为分析对象,利用SPSS统计学软件求得了回归模型参量,进一步构建了机械设备仪表类Logistic回归模型;并以某机械制造公司作为分析实例,对该模型的计算方法进行了进一步表达,对Logistic回归模型在财务预警中的分析和应用提供了一定的参考。     

基于 Logistic 模型的机械制造业上市公司财务预警应用与分析

本文对 Logistic回归模型应用于财务预警应用与分析做了深入理论分析，并以机械行业最新财务统计数据作为分析对象，利用SPSS统计学软件求得了回归模型参量，进一步构建了机械设备仪表类 Logistic回归模型；并以某机械制造公司作为分析实例，对该模型的计算方法进行了进一步表达，对 Logistic回归模型在财务预警中的分析和应用提供了一定的参考。     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.