Metodología para la toma de decisiones de inversión en portafolio de acciones utilizando la técnica multicriterio AHP

This paper presents a methodology for decision making in the Colombia stock market by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) multicriteria technique. The problem of the research is related to the process for making investment decisions in a stock market by considering risk and profitability criteria. The research methodology includes the integration of traditional techniques for making investment decisions in equity portfolio with the AHP technique. The AHP multicriteria technique allows evaluating a finite number of choices with qualitative and quantitative criteria in a hierarchical way. The methodology has been tested on the solution of the problem of choice an equity portfolio by considering stocks of high and Medium Marketability which quoted in the Colombian stock market from December 2007 to April 2010. The computational results show the importance and efficiency of the successful integration of the traditional criteria of equity portfolio investment with the methodology AHP, for finding an appropriate balance between profitability and risk in the process of stock investment on the Colombian stock market.     

The precautionary principle: an 'unprincipled' approach to biotechnology regulation

A tenet of administrative law, particularly in the United States, is that regulators must base their decisions on 'intelligible principles' to provide consistency, predictability, transparency and accountability. The precautionary principle, which purports to provide a new decision rule for making environmental decisions under conditions of uncertainty, fails to provide such an intelligible principle for making decisions. The precautionary principle is ambiguous on the use of the two major criteria currently used to make environmental decisions - significant risk and cost-benefit balancing - yet offers no new specific decision criteria in their place. The second fundamental problem with the precautionary principle is that it is based on the unsubstantiated premise that the current regulatory system is insufficiently protective. The current system already tends to err on the side of the safety, as it should, but the relevant question is just how precautious should we be? As illustrated by the example of genetically modified organisms, the prudent level of precaution depends on factors such as the magnitude, distribution and uncertainty of risks, the extent of exposure, and the trade-offs and lost benefits in foregoing the risk. These are precisely the factors that are considered under the current risk-based approach, which the precautionary principle seeks to replace.     

Risk assessment and risk decision-making process related to hazardous installation in France

The chemical process industry gathers critical infrastructures since chemical plants represent for the society both an instrument to generate activity and benefits (production of goods, employment, services …), and an instrument that can harm people and the environment. This paper describes the risk assessment approach need in France for licensing hazardous installations, in particular those covered by the Seveso II Directive and the implication for land-use planning. The first part explains why the French risk assessment procedure is based on the quantitative evaluation of major accident scenarios with explicit criteria, and only on qualitative analysis of the risk reducing measures without explicit criteria. The second part shows some on-going evolutions in the risk assessment process in particular for the analysis of the safety barriers. In the third part, the authors share some thoughts on the risk decision-making process.     

Adaptive planning and uncertainty resolution

The article discusses uncertainty resolution and the approaches to uncertainty in planning. Statically perceived uncertainty may be described more or less explicitly in decision making. Stating various possible outcomes and, possibly, their numerical probabilities may allow quantitative theory to be applied. However, there will be a residual of genuine uncertainty due to the limits set by the available information. By “buying” more information the decision maker can decrease the genuine uncertainty. It is also often possible to reduce uncertainty by waiting. The most effective way is to state the expectations explicitly and to let the various future states of information correspond to alternative decisions in a conditional strategy. This requires a new kind of forecast that refers to the development of information available. A less efficient mode of planning can still take into consideration the fact that revisions are expected. This is flexible planning in a wide sense.     

Forecasting forward defaults: a simple hazard model with competing risks

A forward default prediction method based on the discrete-time competing risk hazard model (DCRHM) is proposed. The proposed model is developed from the discrete-time hazard model (DHM) by replacing the binary response data in DHM with the multinomial response data, and thus allowing the firms exiting public markets for different causes to have different effects on forward default prediction. We show that DCRHM is a reliable and efficient model for forward default prediction through maximum likelihood analysis. We use actual panel data-sets to illustrate the proposed methodology. Using an expanding rolling window approach, our empirical results statistically confirm that DCRHM has better and more robust out-of-sample performance than DHM, in the sense of yielding more accurate predicted number of forward defaults. Thus, DCRHM is a useful alternative for studying forward default losses on portfolios.     

复合实物期权研究述评

综述了国内外复合期权理论、方法及应用的最新研究成果,介绍了复合期权模型在金融资产和实物资产价值评估、公司金融领域等的具体应用。对多期复合期权模型在序列决策方面所具有的优势与应用前景、研究难点及相应的解决方案展开了深入的讨论。     

Perceived risk and personality traits explaining heterogeneity in Dutch dairy farmers’ beliefs about vaccination against Bluetongue

When designing effective voluntary vaccination strategies against animal disease epidemics, policy-makers need to take into account that different groups of farmers base their participation decisions on different considerations. Using the past Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epidemic of 2006–2009 in Europe as an example, this paper uses the Reasoned Action Approach to identify a set of attitudinal beliefs being the major drivers behind the intended decision to participate in voluntary vaccination. The results show that there is heterogeneity among farmers in these beliefs. In particular, perceived risk, which was captured by a risk attitude and a risk perception of the farmer, and personality traits are associated with variability in beliefs about vaccination against Bluetongue. The patterns found between perceived risk, personality traits and other farm and farmer characteristics were discussed in relation to the governance of animal health.     

Semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources for emergency water supply

The submitted paper proposes the possible use of integrated semi-quantitative risk assessment of groundwater resources. There are risks resulting from both natural and anthropogenic hazard sources. Activation of these types of hazard sources can cause damage to, or destruction of, particular hydrogeological structures and technological equipment of selected groundwater resources suitable for the emergency drinking water supply of the population. The process of risk assessment is based on the described register of hazards, including semi-quantitative assessment of the frequency with which the assessed sources of hazards are activated, the register of sensitivity together with the semi-quantitative sensitivity assessment of selected threatened elements of the assessed water resource and the determination of their criticality. The semi-quantitative risk assessment should become one of the important criteria for classifying groundwater resources which have been proposed for emergency water supply. The classification carried out on the basis of the above-mentioned principle can contribute to faster selection and effective use of groundwater resources, as well as to the enhancement of emergency and crisis planning systems when the public system is either damaged or destroyed.