基于收入水平的多层次养老保险体系构建研究

以人人享有适度养老保障为目标,构建"政府与市场分责、基本与补充结合、公平与效率并重"的多层次养老保险体系,是我国养老保险制度改革的目标模式。改革开放以来,我国养老保险制度改革成效显著,但当前多层次养老保险体系建设不能满足不同收入群体的需要,仍存在供求失衡状况。短期而言,应进一步落实和完善现行制度,健全由基本养老保险、补充养老保险和个人储蓄养老保险构成的多层次养老保险体系;长期而言,应对现有养老保险体系进行结构性调整,构建基于不同收入水平的多层次养老保险体系,包括面向无收入、低收入人群的国民基础养老金制度,面向工薪职工的基本养老保险制度,面向高收入群体的补充养老保险制度。     

养老金收入如何提升农村老年人主观福利?——基于相对剥夺的机理分析与实证检验

基于相对剥夺理论,分析养老金收入对农村老年人主观福利影响机理,并通过面板分位数回归检验养老金收入对农村老年人主观福利的异质性影响。结果表明：养老金收入增加在提升农村老年人主观福利的同时,还能缩小其主观福利差距。养老金收入增加对女性、低龄和低收入农村老年人的主观福利影响更大,相对剥夺在其中发挥部分中介作用。鉴于此,应以公平、适度为目标,缩小养老金收入差距,切实提高农村老年人的幸福感与获得感。     

Social Transfers And Income Inequality In Old Age

Abstract

This paper examines variation in old-age income inequality between industrialized nations with modern welfare systems. The analysis of income inequality across countries with different retirement income systems provides a perspective on public pension policy choices and designs and their distributional implications. Because of the progressive nature of public pension programs, we hypothesize that there is an inverse relationship between the quality of public pension benefits and old-age income inequality—that is, countries with comprehensive, universal, and generous public pension systems will exhibit more equal distributions of income in old age.

Luxembourg Income Study data indeed show that cross-national variation in old-age income inequality is partly explained by differences in the percentage of seniors’ total income derived from public pension transfers. Sweden, for example, has the highest level of government transfers and the lowest level of old-age income inequality, while Israel and the United States have the lowest levels of dependency on government transfers and the highest levels of income inequality. A notable exception is Canada, where public transfers represent only a moderate portion of elderly income, yet old-age income inequality is relatively low. These findings suggest that quality of public pension benefits does indeed play a role in explaining differences in old-age income inequality between industrialized nations, yet these variations are also likely influenced by other factors.     

养老金统筹层次提升的收入再分配效应研究——以辽宁省级统筹为例

养老保险一直以来被认为是具有重要的收入再分配功能.养老金公平分配既是收入再分配的出发点,也是再分配调节能力的基础.只有深入透彻的分析基础养老金自市级统筹提升到省级统筹层次带来的收入分配变动,才能更好检验基础养老金统筹层次提升所带来的地区间收入差距的变化,更重要的是可以为实现全国统筹铺平道路.本文立足于分析中国城镇企业职工基本养老保险制度,依据养老金计发办法,分析统筹层次提升对养老金给付影响及基础养老金的收入再分配效应,得到如下结论:省级统筹的实施对养老金给付水平的调整不存在影响;省级统筹的实施对新增退休人员基础养老金和过渡性养老金给付存在影响;养老保险统筹层次的提升缩小地区间的新增退休人员初次分配差异;对于新增退休人员来说,实际基础养老金地区差异要小于名义上的基础养老金地区差异.但当前的省级统筹层次提升分配方案损害了高收入地区高物价水平地区新增退休人员基础养老金福利,未能真正体现出保证劳动者在职贡献与养老金福利给付的相对公平.因此,养老保险统筹层次提升方案中,应充分考虑地区间物价水平差异,确保高收入地区养老金合理的流向低收入地区,保证基础养老金分配的公平与养老金制度的可持续发展,促进全国统筹的尽快实现.     

北京市城镇无保障老人养老保险问题研究

近年来,城镇无保障老年人的养老问题日益受到政府和社会的关注。全国已有部分省市对城镇无保障老年人提供了一定的养老补贴待遇,但是,不同省市采用补贴形式各不相同,补贴标准也有一定的差异。目前,北京市城镇无保障老人主要是通过福利养老金制度覆盖,对满足年龄条件的无保障老人,每人每月都可以领取230元财政补贴。那么,在政府财力有限的条件下,如何提高无保障老人收入水平?本文提出了建立无保障老人个人缴费与政府补贴相结合的新制度,并依据2007年北京市城镇无保障老人调查数据,构建北京市无保障老人养老保险收支模型,计算并预测了未来10年的养老保险收支情况,通过这一模式表明,政府财政补贴在适度提高的前提下,无保障老人养老待遇会有较大幅度增加,而且该模式运行的稳定性较强。     

人口迁移对养老金缺口的影响分析

通过构建三部门世代交叠模型，依据现实数据进行模拟分析，考察在不同时间跨度下不同净迁移率对养老金收支的影响。研究发现，人口净流入的增加会导致养老金统筹账户和个人账户的收入与支出都增加。短期内，人口净流入会缩小养老金缺口，形成一定的养老金盈余；但长期内，人口净流入会使养老金缺口进一步扩大。鉴于此，地方政府通过吸引外来人口短期内缓解养老金缺口是可行的，但欲据此从根本上解决养老金缺口是不可取的。     

Corporate capital structure and pension-funding strategy

This article provides an integrated analysis of pension funding and corporate financing strategies in the presence of default risk. The article shows that when the marginal personal income tax rate is constant, the financing decision with respect to pension funding is influenced entirely by tax considerations. When the marginal personal income tax is progressive, the optimal financing of pension funding depends on the cyclical nature of the firm (as characterized by the sign of beta), the riskiness of pension assets, and ERISA regulations concerning the pension-benefit guaranty rate, the marginal pension insurance premium and the firm's legal responsibility for its unfunded pension obligations. It is shown that a necessary condition for partial pension funding is that the marginal insurance premium imposed by PBGC must be less than actuarially fair, and a necessary condition for pension funding to be financed by both debt and equity is that beta must be positive.     

澳大利亚“安全和可持续”的国民养老金改革及启示

2009年9月澳大利亚政府颁布了＂安全和可持续＂的国民养老金改革计划。主要内容包括改革家计调查政策,提高国民养老金待遇水平,延长退休年龄,实施延长工作奖励计划等。这次改革对我国养老保障体系完善有如下启示：我国应当建立针对低收入群体的普惠制的国民养老金制度;以防止老年贫困,保障老年人最基本生活为目标;改革应注重政府调节和市场调节手段相结合;改革应兼顾不同群体利益,减少阻力。     

养老金计划与个人所得税政策

不同税制模式和个人所得税征税方式对养老金计划的影响不同,而养老金计划的个人所得税政策如何定位又主要取决于公共政策对储蓄以及不同储蓄形式的态度。比较国际实践,从税制模式、储蓄传统和长期资产管理来看,我国公共政策不需要鼓励养老金储蓄,但从金融体系的稳定和长远发展来看,又需要对养老金储蓄形式给予一定的鼓励。因此,我国个人所得税政策应该对其给予适当税收激励,但不需要很大力度。考虑到我国分类征收的个人所得税制,本文认为,我国个人所得税对养老金计划应该采取TEE模式(养老金缴款不允许税前扣除、对未支付的资本收益或资本利得不征税、对领取的全部养老金收入不征税)。     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

Financial literacy and voluntary savings for retirement: novel causal evidence

ABSTRACT

We utilise recent Household Finance and Consumption Survey microdata to report first causal effects of financial literacy on voluntary private pension schemes participation for a Central and Eastern European (CEE) country, namely Slovakia. Savings for retirement in the supplementary pension schemes are positively associated with financial literacy after controlling for a set of relevant socio-economic variables. One additional correctly answered financial literacy question leads to a 5.6 percentage points increase in the probability of having a voluntary pension savings plan in our ordinary least squares estimates. The causal impact of financial literacy increases to 19.5 percentage points when we address potential endogeneity problems by novel to the literature instrumental variables.     

企业年金缩小企业与机关事业单位职工养老金差距的政策仿真研究——工资异质性的视角

引入工资差异对企业职工企业年金缴费意愿的影响,采用仿真方法测量企业年金对企业与机关事业单位职工养老金差距的影响。首先,根据我国养老制度安排,构建了企业年金基金、基本养老金、退休金预测模型和养老金差距测量指标;其次,选取工资水平从社平工资的0．5倍～5．0倍的14类代表性职工,模拟了基准情境和提高企业年金税收优惠的四种情境——提高雇主缴费的企业所得税免税上限、降低雇主缴费计入个人账户部分的个人所得税税率、降低领取阶段的个人所得税税率、免征个人缴费的个人所得税,并进行了敏感性分析。仿真结果表明,企业年金及其税收优惠政策能够有效缩小企业与机关事业单位职工养老金差距,提高雇主缴费的企业所得税免税上限的作用最显著。企业年金投资收益率提高、企业年金管理费率降低、余寿减少、社平工资增长率提高和工作年限增加都会放大这种作用,反之亦然。工资越高企业职工从企业年金中获益越大,可能扩大企业职工内部养老金差距。     

英国“第二支柱”职业养老金改革及其效果分析--以《2008年养老金法案》为例

20世纪70年代以来,随着人口老龄化的加剧和财政压力的加重,英国由国家养老金、职业养老金和个人养老金组成的三支柱养老保险体系的改革呈现出私有化的特点,尤其鼓励大力发展职业养老金和个人养老金计划。《2008年养老金法案》中关于英国职业养老金计划的改革具有划时代的意义,其中“国家职业储蓄信托”提升了职业养老金计划的整体投资绩效;“自动加入”机制作为职业养老金计划由自愿性转向强制性的标志,极大地提高了职业养老金计划的参与率和覆盖面、增加了职业养老金计划的储蓄额。可以说,《2008年养老金法案》对英国职业养老金计划的发展起到了非常大的推动作用。     

社会分层与养老保险制度整合研究

社会分层是依据身份、职业、收入、社会地位等差异划分的社会等级。社会分层福利的差异,在养老保险方面体现得最为明显。一方面,由于社会分层的存在导致不同社会层次的养老保险待遇存在差异,另一方面,养老保险的待遇差异又会进一步强化已有的社会分层,甚至促成新的社会分层的产生,造成收入分配差距和贫富差距,引发社会矛盾。因此有必要兼顾社会分层的养老保险权益,改变养老保险制度碎片化对部分群体的利益伤害,探求中国养老保险制度整合的有效路径。     

Compulsory Savings: Efficiency and Redistribution On the Interaction of Means Tested Basic Income and Public Pensions

In the presence of means tested basic income for old age, households will tend to reduce precautionary savings to an inefficiently low level. We explore how this might serve as a justification for a compulsory public pension system. In a representative agent framework with two income types, compulsory savings are found to be Pareto-improving up to a point. Beyond that point, increases in contribution rates simply result in increasingly regressive (implicit) taxation. Similar results are found for pay-as-you-go pensions. On the basis of our model we argue that the introduction of a funded pension component may help the German pension system to cope with demographic change more efficiently.     

基础养老金统筹层次的收入再分配效应

推动基本养老保险由省级统筹向全国统筹过渡是我国现阶段社会保障制度改革的重心,对于实现经济的公平高效发展具有重要意义。为此,选取2006—2017年全国31个地区的面板数据,以基础养老金省级统筹过渡到全国统筹后,不同地区及不同收入群体间的收入再分配效应为研究对象,从统支视域出发,采用渐进式计发办法预测2041年统筹层次提升后,各地区不同收入群体的基础养老金待遇水平,并结合泰尔指数和离散系数进行比较静态分析,结果发现：养老金统筹层次提升存在着显著的收入再分配效应,但各地区养老金待遇差距与其经济发展水平并无必然联系。     

The Role of the Auditor in Modern Society: An Exploratory Essay

This paper examines competing proprietary and political cost arguments for incentives facing managers of different types of Australian and UK pension fund, to voluntarily disclose pension liability information in annual reports sent to their participants. For Australian defined benefit pension funds, the disclosure reveals the fund's actuarial surplus or deficit, which conveys information to participants about the pension fund's ability to generate future cash flows. Tests are conducted on the voluntary reporting practices of a sample of 119 Australian and 100 UK pension funds, using variables which prior research suggests affects their financial valuation and performance. The empirical results support predictions that managerial discretionary disclosure carries proprietary cost implications for Australian defined benefit pension funds, as proxied by their investment risk and funding ratio, and political cost implications for Australian defined contribution and UK defined benefit pension funds, as proxied by their size.     

The Value and Risk of Defined Contribution Pension Schemes: International Evidence

We use historical data on investment returns and labor income from 16 countries to quantify the value and risk of defined contribution pension plans, building frequency distributions of pension fund and pension replacement ratios for each country. We show that pension risk is substantial and find that pension fund ratios are lower and less variable than when the correlation between wage growth and investment returns is ignored, typically halving the median pension fund ratio. We also show that an all‐equity fund is the dominant investment strategy across all countries, although sometimes a life‐cycle strategy insures against downside risk.     

Annuity Markets and Retirement Security

The growing importance of defined contribution pension arrangements has drawn increased attention to the means by which retired people draw down their assets. Current UK law requires annuitisation of at least a fraction of defined contribution plan accumulations. Annuity markets have recently attracted some criticism with respect to pricing and the available range of product options. This paper describes a key feature of voluntary annuity markets: the presence of ‘adverse selection’. This is the tendency of annuitants to live longer than non‐annuitants, since individuals who know that they are likely to die soon do not purchase annuities. The paper presents information that quantifies the importance of adverse selection in the setting of private annuity prices and discusses the role of compulsory annuitisation requirements in reducing it. Requiring individuals to participate in the annuity market can reduce selection effects, at the cost of reducing individuals' range of retirement income options.     

Inside debt and firm risk-taking: Evidence from the UK pension reform

This paper provides new evidence on the relation between CEO inside debt and firm risk-taking by exploiting the change in the tax treatment of UK pensions following two pension amendments. The 2006 pension reform introduces the annual and lifetime allowance for UK pension schemes, significantly increasing income taxes associated with CEO inside debt. The 2011 allowance cut, which substantially reduces the annual allowance introduced in 2006, further increases income taxes on inside debt. We find that CEO inside debt, in the form of executive pensions declines after the 2006 reform while cash-in-lieu increases significantly. This effect is more severe after the 2011 allowance cut than the 2006 pension reform. UK firms appear to substitute away from pensions towards cash-in-lieu, where income taxes are less punishing. If the association between CEO inside debt and firm risk-taking is causal, we should observe a change of risk-taking after the decline of inside debt. Our results, which exploit the exogenous nature of the reforms, show that the decline of CEO pensions does not lead to any change in firm risk-taking. This result suggests that no causal relationship exists between CEO inside debt and firm risk-taking. Our results extend the inside debt literature, where empirical evidence is mainly documented in the US. Contrary to findings in the US, our evidence suggests that the use of CEO inside debt is motivated to minimise income tax rather than a tool to moderate firm risk.