英国工党政府养老金制度改革述评:公平和效率的视角

面对不断增加的贫困人口和持续扩大的收入差距,面对急剧攀升的老年抚养比和严重不足的养老储蓄,英国工党政府在养老保障领域采取了一系列改革措施。改革的核心内容就是协调公平和效率问题。公平问题主要涉及减少贫困人口,缩小收入差距;效率问题主要涉及降低政府养老金负担,发展私营养老金,增加养老储蓄。总体而言,工党政府执政期间,英国贫困人口大幅减少,收入差距扩大的趋势得到明显遏制,政府养老金负担保持稳定,私营养老金的作用越来越大。因此,工党政府的养老金改革较好地协调了公平和效率问题,有利于英国养老保障制度的可持续发展。     

企业年金缩小企业与机关事业单位职工养老金差距的政策仿真研究——工资异质性的视角

引入工资差异对企业职工企业年金缴费意愿的影响,采用仿真方法测量企业年金对企业与机关事业单位职工养老金差距的影响。首先,根据我国养老制度安排,构建了企业年金基金、基本养老金、退休金预测模型和养老金差距测量指标;其次,选取工资水平从社平工资的0．5倍～5．0倍的14类代表性职工,模拟了基准情境和提高企业年金税收优惠的四种情境——提高雇主缴费的企业所得税免税上限、降低雇主缴费计入个人账户部分的个人所得税税率、降低领取阶段的个人所得税税率、免征个人缴费的个人所得税,并进行了敏感性分析。仿真结果表明,企业年金及其税收优惠政策能够有效缩小企业与机关事业单位职工养老金差距,提高雇主缴费的企业所得税免税上限的作用最显著。企业年金投资收益率提高、企业年金管理费率降低、余寿减少、社平工资增长率提高和工作年限增加都会放大这种作用,反之亦然。工资越高企业职工从企业年金中获益越大,可能扩大企业职工内部养老金差距。     

Financing Retirement in the European Union

This paper explores how EU countries can address various challenges (including the aging of the population) affecting their systems of old-age income support. It presents two scenarios illustrating the most important uncertainties surrounding the major developments that affect the pension systems of the EU. To diversify these risks, EU governments should act on several fronts. In addition to the formation of human capital (especially that of children), employment (especially that of older workers) should be boosted. This calls for social insurance reform with more emphasis on individual saving schemes. Pension schemes should be more explicit about how they share demographic and other risks. Countries that currently rely heavily on public pay-as-you-go (PAYG) schemes should stimulate private pensions by gradually reducing PAYG benefits collected by high-income earners, by issuing new financial instruments, and by conducting intergenerational risk sharing through the tax system.     

The Impact of the Automatic Balancing Mechanism for the Public Pension in Japan on the Extreme Elderly

Abstract

Most developed countries are seeking ways to maintain a sustainable social security system. Japan is no exception. The old-age dependency ratio in Japan is currently 35% and is expected to be 74% in 2050. Recently the Japanese government has adopted an automatic balancing mechanism, which gradually reduces the real price of the public pension through a reduction of inflation adjustments. The reduction, depending on future demographics, is a random process, so the elderly, in particular the extreme elderly, have to take the risk of receiving an inadequate public pension. The objectives of this paper are threefold. First, we review the recent trends in Japanese mortality and explain the underlying longevity issues that led to the automatic balancing mechanism. Second, by means of stochastic mortality and fertility modeling, we analyze how demographic changes will affect the future of public pensions in Japan. Third, we demonstrate, on the basis of the stochastic projections we made, how the automatic balancing mechanism will affect the financial security for people who live beyond age 100.     

Ageing and the tax implied in public pension schemes: simulations for selected OECD countries

A key figure suited to measuring intergenerational imbalances in unfunded public pension schemes is given by the ‘implicit tax rate’ imposed on each generation's lifetime income. The implicit tax arises from the fact that, quite generally, pension benefits fall short of actuarial returns to contributions paid to these systems while actively working. Under current pension policies, implicit tax rates will increase sharply for younger generations in most industrialised countries. In this paper, this is illustrated for the cases of France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the USA. Nevertheless, there are remarkable differences across countries regarding both the level of implicit taxes and their development over successive age cohorts, which can be attributed to differences in ageing processes and in the institutional features of national pension systems. In addition, we can demonstrate how effective different approaches to pension reform are in smoothing the intergenerational profile of implicit tax rates.     

ACHIEVING SOCIAL OBJECTIVES THROUGH PRIVATE TRANSFERS: A Review

Private interhousehold cash transfers are an important sourceof income in many developing countries. Among the countrieswhose experience is reviewed in the article, the proportionof all households receiving private transfers ranges from afifth to a half. The amounts received are large, particularlywhen compared with the incomes of the poorest households. Understanding more about these transfers is important for designingpolicy because, among other things, these remittances providesocial and economic benefits similar to those of public programs,such as unemployment insurance, pension support, educationalcredit, and health assistance. As such, private transfers maysupplement or overlap with public transfers, and, if privatedonors give less as public transfers increase, the effect ofpublic programs on beneficiaries would be less than originallyintended. Or the transfers may alter the distributional effectsof public programs: for again, if private donors give less aspublic transfers increase, they share in some of the benefitsof public programs.      

International Trends in Income Inequality and Social Policy

In most OECD-countries income inequality has increased during the last two decades. In this paper, we investigate whether changes in the overall distribution of income can be attributed to social policy measures. For most (but not all) countries we find a possible relationship between changing welfare state policies (as measured by expenditure ratios and replacement rates) and changing income inequality. Especially the United Kingdom and the Netherlands combined an above-average rise in inequality with a reduction in the generosity of the welfare system.A more elaborate budget incidence analysis for the Netherlands indicates that in the period 1981–1997 inequality of disposable household income increased sharply. The two main forces behind this phenomenon were a more unequal distribution of market incomes and changes in social transfers. Fundamental social security reforms in the Netherlands indeed seem to have made the income distribution less equal. However, income inequality in the Netherlands is still below the OECD average at the end of the observed period.     

Some Implications of Changing the Tax Basis for Pension Funds

Governments in many developed economies provide private pension plans with significant taxation incentives. However, as many retirement income systems are now being reviewed due to demographic, social and economic pressures, these taxation arrangements are also under scrutiny. This paper discusses some of the implications of the differences between the traditional taxation treatment adopted by most OECD nations and that adopted by Australia, where there is a tax on contributions, a tax on investment earnings and a tax on benefits. The results show that there are significant differences in the net value of the benefits received by individuals and the taxation revenue received by the government. On the other hand, it is shown that there is remarkably little to distinguish between the two tax structures in terms of summary measures of lifetime income, although the form in which the benefit is taken in retirement is significant in influencing intragenerational equity.     

机关事业单位养老保险制度改革探索——以江苏省连云港市为例

机关事业单位养老保险制度,作为整个养老保险制度的重要组成部分,其改革的重要性、必要性和紧迫性毋庸置疑。结合江苏省连云港市机关事业单位养老保险制度的改革现状、存在问题及其原因分析,针对性地提出进一步推进机关事业单位养老保险制度改革的对策建议:扩大基本养老保险覆盖范围,提高基金统筹层次;设计公平的基本养老金计发办法,建立基本养老金调整机制;建立基本养老保险个人账户,完善养老保险管理体制;制定统一的机关事业单位养老保险政策,构建多层次的养老保险体系。     

社会养老保险“多轨制”与家庭股票市场参与

依据中国家庭金融调查数据,运用Probit模型和Tobit模型,考量社会养老保险“多轨制”对家庭股票市场参与的影响。结果显示：社会养老保险“多轨制”通过缓解收入风险、健康风险与风险厌恶程度等,影响家庭股票市场参与;家庭净资产水平和信任水平异质性,影响家庭股票市场参与差异。其中,参加企职保或机关事业单位养老保险促进家庭股票市场参与显著,参加城乡居保影响不显著。鉴于此,应进一步整合社会养老保险“多轨制”,提高城乡居保的养老保障水平,充分发挥社会养老保险对家庭股票市场参与的促进作用。     

东亚三国的公共养老金制度改革：名义账户制的应用前景评析

在人口老龄化形势下,东亚国家的老年人口赡养率迅速攀升。如何改革公共养老金制度,建立与人口、经济社会形势相适应的养老保障体系,是摆在这些国家面前的一个难题。本文将比较中国、韩国和新加坡的公共养老制度,探讨名义账户制（NDC）在三国的应用前景。通过分析名义账户制化解各国现实问题的潜在能力,作者认为中国适用名义账户制的可行性最强,新加坡较低,而韩国介于二者之间。     

Keeping up or Falling behind? The Impact of Benefit and Tax Uprating on Incomes and Poverty*

Each year, the government decides how much to raise benefits and tax allowances. In the UK, the basis for these upratings is rarely debated, yet has major long‐term consequences for the relative living standards of different groups as well as for the public finances. This paper considers the medium‐term implications of present uprating policies, which vary across parameters of the tax–benefit system. Continuing these policies for 20 years, other things staying the same, would result in a near doubling of the child poverty rate alongside a substantial gain to the public finances. At the same time, pensioners are largely protected by the earnings indexation of pensioner benefits including, in time, the basic state pension. We show how difficult it will be to meet the UK child poverty targets unless the greater inequality inherent in the current regime for uprating payments and allowances is redressed.     

欧洲债务危机与社会养老保障的国家特征及中国借鉴

欧洲政府债务比重长期偏高的国家表现出高社会保障和福利支出比重、高社会养老保障支出比重、高公共养老金替代率和再分配功能偏低的"三高一低"特征,而这在很大程度上源于社会养老保障及其改革的刚性。因此,中国应该从长经济周期的视角来协调保障与经济发展的关系,当前社会保障建设则要适当滞后于经济发展,同时,建立多层次的退休金支付结构,强化基础养老金"保基本"的横向再分配功能,并构建养老金关键参数的弹性调整机制。     

Alternative Retirement Income Arrangements and Lifetime Income Inequality: Lessons From Australia

This paper examines the implications for lifetime income equality of alternative retirement income arrangements, using the Australian scheme as a benchmark. In Australia, the pay-as-you go financed age pension is means-tested and thereby provides a contrast with those countries where part or all of a basic pension is paid to all aged persons. Many governments are considering an increase in the level of means-testing. The results show that the introduction of a universal pension coupled with significant changes and simplifications to the structure of taxation and superannuation have little effect on the redistributive impact of the tax structure in a life cycle framework. The presence of means-testing appears to have no significant effect on life-time inequality. The results suggest that it is possible to eliminate complexities from the system providing retirement benefits without having any deleterious effect on equity. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

社会保障对收入分配差距的调节效应——基于陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究

社会保障具有重要的收入再分配功能,在很多国家社会保障都是调节居民收入分配差距最重要的手段。本文对陕西省宝鸡市住户调查数据的实证研究表明,社会保障转移性收入缩小了居民收入分配差距,使城乡居民收入的基尼系数下降了4.5%,其中城镇居民基尼系数下降22.8%,农村居民基尼系数下降1.82%。但由于农村居民获得的社会保障转移性收入远远低于城镇居民,从而导致城乡收入差距上升23.17%。为抑制收入分配差距的进一步扩大,中国应重视社会保障对收入分配的调节作用,进一步增加社会保障的财政投入。尤其要加大对农村社会保障的财政投入,尽快扭转社会保障对城乡收入差距的逆向调节。     

Social Security Design in the UK: What is optimal?

This paper uses a simple model of how households at different points on the income distribution make decisions about saving and labour supply to illustrate some of the problems government faces in designing social security systems. We show simulation results, which highlight the costs and benefits of alternative pension and income support regimes, and analyse what is happening in the UK in the light of the results.     

Political-economy of pension plans: Impact of institutions,gender, and culture

National pension systems are an important part of financial intermediation and worker welfare in most countries, but how and why do they differ internationally? Controlling for important political, economic and social institutions, we document that international differences in pension progressivity, or how pensions reflect lifetime earnings, are negatively related to masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, individualism, long-term orientation, employment rights, average pension levels, social trust and economic inequality. We also find that pension progressivity is positively related to the economic and societal role of women, the extent of Catholicism; as well as political voice and accountability. These results provide important insights for both public policy and MNC managers.     

Comparing inequality aversion across countries when labor supply responses differ

We analyze to which extent social inequality aversion differs across nations when controlling for actual country differences in labor supply responses. Towards this aim, we estimate labor supply elasticities at both extensive and intensive margins for 17 EU countries and the US. Using the same data, inequality aversion is measured as the degree of redistribution implicit in current tax-benefit systems, when these systems are deemed optimal. We find relatively small differences in labor supply elasticities across countries. However, this changes the cross-country ranking in inequality aversion compared to scenarios following the standard approach of using uniform elasticities. Differences in redistributive views are significant between three groups of nations. Labor supply responses are systematically larger at the extensive margin and often larger for the lowest earnings groups, exacerbating the implicit Rawlsian views for countries with traditional social assistance programs. Given the possibility that labor supply responsiveness was underestimated at the time these programs were implemented, we show that such wrong perceptions would lead to less pronounced and much more similar levels of inequality aversion.     

New Models for Old-Age Security: Experiments, Evidence, and Unanswered Questions

The escalating costs of traditional social security systemsare forcing countries to reevaluate the formal programs thatprovide income maintenance support to the aging. This articlesuggests a reform strategy built around three systems, or "pillars,"to provide old-age security—a public pillar with mandatoa private, mandatory savings plan, and a voluntary savings system.Three variations of this model are being implemented in differentcountries: the Latin American model, in which individual workerschoose an investment manager for their retirement finds; theOECD model, in which employers, union trustees, or both choosethe investment manager for an entire company or occupation;and the Swedish notional account model, a reformed pay-as-you-gofirst pillar that may be supplemented by a second, funded pillar.Preliminary empirical evidence on the efficiency and growtheffects of pension reform, mostly from Chile, indicates thatthe impact on national saving and financial market developmentand, through these, economic growth, has been positive and possiblylarge. Problems concerning high administrative costs and regulationsthat distort investment decisions remain to be resolved, however.      

Rentenversicherung zwischen Nachhaltigkeit und Gerechtigkeit

Compared to other Western European countries, Germany has taken considerable steps to improve the sustainability of financing its public pension system. However, more recently we have observed attempts to revoke some of the enacted reforms before their implementation. If the positive correlation between income and life expectancy is taken into account, one can indeed diagnose a discrimination against low-income earners in the present retirement benefit schedule, and this very group will suffer disproportionately from the increase in legal retirement age enacted in 2007. Therefore, to protect the sustainability of the pension system in the political sphere, it may be necessary to modify the schedule in favor of this group. In other words, sustainability and equity of the pension system must go hand in hand.