Default, insurance, and debt over the life-cycle

The widespread use of debt and default suggests that unsecured credit markets play an important role in consumption smoothing. In this paper, I address two previously unanswered questions. First, how does policy towards debt default affect the evolution of consumption and net worth over the life-cycle? Second, how does debt default policy interact with social insurance over the life-cycle? The findings are as follows. First, US default policy appears “lax”, in the sense that it creates severe credit constraints, especially for the young. Second, eliminating default will lower consumption inequality among the young, but will increase it among the old. Third, social insurance alters default risk and, in turn, loan pricing, and therefore matters for purely intertemporal smoothing.     

Default and bankruptcy in an entrepreneurial economy with incomplete markets

We build a general equilibrium model with incomplete markets, production, default, and bankruptcy. The existence of equilibrium is proved. Theoretically, under appropriate conditions, we show that the reduced-form entrepreneurial equilibrium and profit-maximization entrepreneurial equilibrium, as defined by Magill and Quinzii (1996), are equivalent. In addition, we find an inverse relationship between the economy real interest rate and the probability of default. This result is empirically tested by applying the Cox proportional hazards model with time-dependent covariates for a sample of sole proprietorships’ unsecured credit operations in the Brazilian economy. The estimates confirm the findings from the theoretical model.     

Evidence on the insurance effect of bankruptcy exemptions

Defaulting on one’s debts when experiencing an adverse event can help insure households against unexpected income risks. But the effect of allowing default on debt levels is ambiguous, not least because lenders may restrict access to credit. Hence the optimal punishment for bankruptcy is unclear. The US states allows householders to keep a variety of assets when filing for bankruptcy – the ‘bankruptcy exemptions’ – and these exemptions change substantially between states and over time. By exploiting these differences this study shows that raising the exemptions (i) marginally decreases the level of unsecured debt that household’s hold; (ii) makes consumption smoother. Thus, despite the effect on debt levels, the generous provisions to debtors in arrears may be helping US households to insure themselves against income risk.     

The Impact of Deregulation and Financial Innovation on Consumers: The Case of the Mortgage Market

We develop a technique to assess the impact of changes in mortgage markets on households, exploiting an implication of the permanent income hypothesis: The higher a household's expected future income, the higher its desired consumption, ceteris paribus. With perfect credit markets, desired consumption matches actual consumption and current spending forecasts future income. Because credit market imperfections mute this effect, the extent to which house spending predicts future income measures the "imperfectness" of mortgage markets. Using micro-data, we find that since the early 1980s, mortgage markets have become less imperfect in this sense, and securitization has played an important role.     

Limited arbitrage between equity and credit markets

We document that short-horizon pricing discrepancies across firms' equity and credit markets are common and that an economically significant proportion of these are anomalous, indicating a lack of integration between the two markets. Proposing a statistical measure of market integration, we investigate whether equity–credit market integration is related to impediments to arbitrage. We find that time variation in integration across a firm's equity and credit markets is related to firm-specific impediments to arbitrage such as liquidity in equity and credit markets and idiosyncratic risk. Our evidence provides a potential resolution to the puzzle of why Merton model hedge ratios match empirically observed stock-bond elasticities (Schaefer and Strebulaev, 2008) and yet the model is limited in its ability to explain the integration between equity and credit markets (Collin-Dufresne, Goldstein, and Martin, 2001).     

Evaluating corporate credit risks in emerging markets

Corporate leverage among emerging market firms went up considerably after the 2007–09 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). We investigate how the increased emerging market corporate leverage in the post-GFC period (2010–15) impacted the underlying credit risk, compared to the pre-GFC (2002–2006) and GFC (2007–09) periods. Using firm-level credit risk, financial, and balance sheet data for 350 firms in 23 emerging markets, we find that leverage growth leads to a significant increase in corporate credit default swap (CDS) spreads only in the post-GFC period, and the incremental effect is mainly evident among risky firms (firms with high leverage and idiosyncratic volatility). In contrast, emerging market CDS spreads during the GFC period are mainly driven by global market risk factors. The post-GFC corporate debt vulnerability is mitigated for high growth prospect firms and firms domiciled in countries with high net capital inflows and superior governance. While corporate leverage growth impacts aggregate corporate credit risk, there is no evidence that it increases sovereign credit risk. Our paper contributes to the recent literature on potential sources of default risk in emerging markets.     

Market-specific and currency-specific risk during the global financial crisis: Evidence from the interbank markets in Tokyo and London

This paper investigates how international money markets reflected credit and liquidity risk during the global financial crisis. After matching the currency denomination, we examine how the Tokyo Interbank Offered Rate (TIBOR) was synchronized with the London Interbank Offered Rate (LIBOR). We find remarkably asymmetric responses in market-specific and currency-specific risk during the crisis. The regression results suggest that market-specific credit risk increased the difference across markets, whereas liquidity risk caused the difference across currency denominations. They also support the view that liquidity shortage of the US dollar occurred in international money markets during the crisis. Coordinated central bank liquidity provisions were useful in reducing the liquidity shortage of the US dollar, but their effectiveness was asymmetric across markets.     

Climate transition risk in sovereign bond markets

Is climate transition risk factored into sovereign bond markets? We find that carbon dioxide emissions, natural resources rents, and renewable energy consumption—as measures of transition risk—significantly affect yields and spreads. Countries with lower carbon emissions incur lower borrowing costs. Advanced countries with reduced earnings from natural resources rents and increased renewable energy consumption are associated with lower borrowing costs, which differ from the effects in developing countries. Given the threat that climate change poses to the global economy and the fast materialization of transition risk, we advocate an increase in the significance of climate transition risk factors as determinants in sovereign bond markets.     

The impact of the euro on Europe's financial markets

This paper presents an overview of the impact of the introduction of the euro on Europe's financial structure over the first four years since the start of EMU. It analyzes changes in money markets, bond markets, equity markets and foreign exchange markets. Euro's role in originating or catalyzing trends has been uneven across the spectrum of financial markets. From the supply side, banks and investors in fixed income markets have become more focused on the characteristics of individual borrowers rather than the nationality of the issuer and have built up expertise to evaluate credit risk. European equity markets have also been affected by the enhanced ability of investors to build strategies with a pan‐European perspective as prices increasingly reflected risk factors specific to industrial sectors rather than individual countries. On the borrower side, EMU has increased the attractiveness of market‐based financing methods by allowing debt issuers to tap institutional portfolios across the euro area. Lower barriers to cross‐border financial transactions have also increased the contestability of the market for financial services, be it at the wholesale or the retail level. The introduction of the euro has also highlighted the shortcomings of existing institutional structures and areas where excessive focus on narrowly defined interests may stand in the way of realizing the full potential benefits from the new environment. Diverging legal and institutional infrastructures and market practices can impede further financial market development and deepening. Hence, the euro has put a premium on cooperation between national authorities and institution as a means of achieving a more harmonized financial environment. The impact of EMU on depth in foreign exchange markets has been less clear‐cut, as volatility, spreads, trading volumes and liquidity appear not to have changed in a substantial way. Overall, it seems that the new currency has made some progress towards the goal of becoming a currency of international stature that would rival that of the US dollar. However, a number of the necessary next steps towards achieving this goal are also among the trickiest to implement.     

Credit market shocks and economic fluctuations: Evidence from corporate bond and stock markets

To identify disruptions in credit markets, research on the role of asset prices in economic fluctuations has focused on the information content of various corporate credit spreads. We re-examine this evidence using a broad array of credit spreads constructed directly from the secondary bond prices on outstanding senior unsecured debt issued by a large panel of nonfinancial firms. An advantage of our “ground-up” approach is that we are able to construct matched portfolios of equity returns, which allows us to examine the information content of bond spreads that is orthogonal to the information contained in stock prices of the same set of firms, as well as in macroeconomic variables measuring economic activity, inflation, interest rates, and other financial indicators. Our portfolio-based bond spreads contain substantial predictive power for economic activity and outperform—especially at longer horizons—standard default-risk indicators. Much of the predictive power of bond spreads for economic activity is embedded in securities issued by intermediate-risk rather than high-risk firms. According to impulse responses from a structural factor-augmented vector autoregression, unexpected increases in bond spreads cause large and persistent contractions in economic activity. Indeed, shocks emanating from the corporate bond market account for more than 30 percent of the forecast error variance in economic activity at the two- to four-year horizon. Overall, our results imply that credit market shocks have contributed significantly to US economic fluctuations during the 1990-2008 period.     

Across-the-Curve Credit Spread Indices

We design a novel across-the-curve credit spread index, AXI, a measure of the recent cost of wholesale unsecured debt funding for publicly listed US bank holding companies and commercial banks. AXI, a benchmark for bank lending and risk management, is the weighted average of credit spreads for unsecured debt instruments with maturities ranging from overnight to five years, with weights that reflect both transaction and issuance volumes. We provide illustrative output of the bond-based component of AXI. By widening coverage to include all corporate debt issuers, we also build a financial conditions index (FXI).     

Did Regulation Fair Disclosure affect credit markets?

This study assesses whether the implementation of Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) has affected the quantity and quality of information in credit markets. We find that, after Reg FD, borrowing from new lenders was associated with a higher loan spread. We also document that, after Reg FD, (1) borrowers became more dependent on relationship lending; (2) lead lenders retained a higher loan share; and (3) a typical loan syndicate involved a smaller number of participating lenders. We interpret these results as evidence of an increased level of information asymmetry in credit markets after Reg FD.     

Value investing in credit markets

We outline a parsimonious empirical model to assess the relative usefulness of accounting- and equity market-based information to explain corporate credit spreads. The primary determinant of corporate credit spreads is the physical default probability. We compare existing accounting-based and market-based models to forecast default. We then assess whether the credit market completely incorporates this default information into credit spreads. We find that credit spreads reflect information about forecasted default rates with a significant lag. This unique evidence suggests a role for value investing in credit markets.     

Credit derivatives, capital requirements and opaque OTC markets

In this paper we study the optimal design of credit derivative contracts when banks have private information about their ability in the loan market and are subject to capital requirements. First, we prove that when banks are subject to a maximum loss capital requirement the optimal signaling contract is a binary credit default basket. Second, we show that if credit derivative markets are opaque then banks cannot commit to terminal-date risk exposure, and therefore the optimal signaling contract is more costly. The above results allow us to discuss the potential implications of different capital adequacy rules for the credit derivative markets.     

Hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era

This paper investigates the relative importance of hot money in bank credit and portfolio flows from the US to 18 emerging markets over the period 1988–2012. We deploy state-space models à la Kalman filter to identify the unobserved hot money as the temporary component of each type of flow. The analysis reveals that the importance of hot money relative to the permanent component in bank credit flows has significantly increased during the 2000s relative to the 1990s. This finding is robust to controlling for the influence of push and pull factors in the two unobserved components. The evidence supports indirectly the view that global banks have played an important role in the transmission of the global financial crisis to emerging markets, and endorses the use of regulations to manage international capital flows.     

The information content of Eonia swap rates before and during the financial crisis

Before August 2007, implied forward rates in the overnight interest swap rates closely reflected market expectations about the future path of the Eonia, and therefore, about the future course of the ECB’s monetary policy stance. Nevertheless, this link was weakened considerably during the most acute episode of the financial crisis. Using the expectations hypothesis of the term structure as a benchmark model for the determination of the overnight interest swap rates, we find that after May 2010 the monetary transmission mechanism was partially restored when the ECB implemented various ‘unconventional measures’ in response to the financial crisis. On the contrary, liquidity and credit risks are still present in unsecured deposit markets, distorting the pricing and transmission of the ECB monetary policy stance along the Euribor rates. These results should be of interest for regulators, financial institutions, and researchers in European money markets.     

Asset allocation and location over the life cycle with investment-linked survival-contingent payouts

This paper shows how survival-contingent investment-linked payouts can enhance investor wellbeing in the context of a portfolio choice model which integrates uninsurable labor income and asymmetric mortality expectations. In exchange for illiquidity, these products provide the consumer with access to mutual-fund style portfolio choice, as well as the survival credit generated from pooling mortality risk. Our model generates optimal asset location patterns indicating how much to hold in liquid versus illiquid survival-contingent payouts over the lifetime, and also asset allocation paths, showing how to invest in stocks versus bonds. We show that the investor who moves her money out of liquid saving into survival-contingent assets gradually from middle age to retirement and beyond, will enhance her welfare by as much as 50%. The results are robust to the introduction of uninsurable consumption shocks in housing expenses, income flows during the worklife and retirement, sudden changes in health status, and medical expenses.     

Stock markets,credit markets,and technology-led growth

The high-tech sector accounts for the majority of corporate innovation in modern economies. In a sample of 38 countries, we document a strong positive relation between the initial size of the country's high-tech sector and subsequent rates of GDP and total factor productivity growth. We also find a strong positive connection between a country's equity (but not credit) market development and the size of its high-tech sector. Our main difference-in-differences estimates show that better developed stock markets support faster growth of innovative-intensive, high-tech industries. The main channels for this effect are higher rates of productivity and faster growth in the number of new high-tech firms. Credit market development fosters growth in industries that rely on external finance for physical capital accumulation but is unimportant for growth in innovation-intensive industries. These findings show that stock markets and credit markets play important but distinct roles in supporting economic growth. Stock markets are uniquely suited for financing technology-led growth, a particularly important concern for advanced economies.     

Economic engagement and within emerging markets integration

We explore the co-movements between emerging markets by employing dynamic conditional correlation approach. We additionally explore the factors that might drive the conditional correlations between emerging markets. We show that trade with the high income countries is a more important driver of the co-movements between emerging markets relative to trade with other emerging markets either within or outside the geographic region of the given country. We further document that the overall health of an economy, investment and market depth explain the correlation between emerging markets. Evidence is also provided that although, the recent emerging markets and global financial crises raised the correlation between emerging markets, not all country pair correlations increased around the period of the crisis. The findings show that economic engagement as opposed to geographic proximity is more relevant in describing within emerging markets integration. The findings suggest that diversification gains could be achieved by strategically investing across some emerging markets even in crisis periods.     

Mapping the UK interbank system

We present new evidence on the structure of interbank connections across key markets: derivatives, marketable securities, repo, unsecured lending and secured lending. Taken together, these markets comprise two networks: a network of interbank exposures and a network of interbank funding. Network structure varies across and within these two networks, for reasons related to markets’ different economic functions. Credit risk and liquidity risk therefore propagate in the interbank system through different network structures. We discuss the implications for financial stability.