Katastrophenanleihen als Risikotransfer-Instrument für Industrieunternehmen

All over the world an increase in natural catastrophes and resulting damages can be observed for entire economies as well as for individual industrial enterprises. This trend leads to extraordinary expensive traditional natural catastrophe insurance or even a lack of insurance capacities. Due to the increased threat resulting from natural catastrophes and the inefficiencies of traditional insurance solutions, it will be analyzed in the following whether catastrophe bonds (cat bonds), as an alternative risk transfer instrument, should play a role in the risk management portfolio of industrial companies. It will be discussed whether catastrophe bonds are possible risk transfer instruments for industrial companies and whether certain basic prerequisites for a confirmation of the suitability are recognizable. In a further step, the design possibilities for cat bonds will be presented and the most suitable design alternatives for industrial companies as issuers of cat bonds will be elaborated. In addition, a critical comparison between the usage of traditional insurance solutions and cat bonds by industrial companies in order to protect themselves against natural catastrophes will be conducted. The result is a first orientation and a general guideline for dealing with catastrophe bonds as part of the operational risk management for industrial companies.     

Aktienanlage für Lebensversicherer unter Solvency II

Life insurance companies are among the largest institutional investors. As part of their investment policy they are subject to special legal requirements. In particular the calculation of the solvency capital that has to be deposited for the market risk has changed under Solvency II. A widely spread thesis on this topic is that investments in equity have become unprofitable for life insurers due to solvency capital requirements – compared to previous periods of high equity ratios of temporally over 25%. Therefore insurers might have dropped their average stock quotas to below 5%.The intention of the present study is to analyze whether the capital requirements for the equity investments under Solvency II are a hurdle to achieve a reasonable profitability or – opposite to that – whether the equity investments are a suitable investment to provide an acceptable return on assets. For this purpose the solvency capital requirements of the equity investment under Solvency I considering the BaFin stress test are compared with the new solvency capital requirements under Solvency II including the symmetric adjustment factor (SA). Furthermore the diversification effects are taken into account; they are analyzed on the basis of the SFCR reports of the life insurance companies first published in 2017. As a result the risk capital requirements for equity investments under Solvency II have been reduced to more than 50% compared to prior solvency requirements and depending on the observed scenarios. Whilst Solvency I required an underlying risk capital of 31% at the end of 2017, Solvency II requires only 13.56% following the standard model and after aggregating the risk-mitigating effects in the group scenario. This effect results in a surplus of 7.2%, considering industry-standard capital costs for the underlying solvency capital and an average stock market return of 8% per annum. Consequently the equity investment is suitable to increase the profitability of the investments of German life insurance companies especially in the environment of low interest rates in the capital market for fixed income titles.     

Wertorientierte Performancemessung im Kompositversicherungsunternehmen

Changing conditions on insurance markets and capital markets involve stronger requirements on the management of insurance companies. Here, the concept of value based management can provide a framework for efficient and profitable corporate management. Central point in this methodology is the value of the company. Changing values over time show the reached performance. In the presented paper we develop a model to value the cashflows especially for a property-liability-insurance company and adopt the model for performance measurement. The study examines theoretical aspects on the one hand and near practical aspects with the special focus on an examplary implementation on the other hand.     

Kongruente Rückdeckung von Pensionszusagen durch Versicherungsprodukte

When a German employer establishes a defined benefit pension plan for his employees, it is common practice in Germany to purchase life insurance policies in order to finance the plan and transfer the risks from the plan to the insurer. A complete transfer of risk can only be obtained by purchasing a congruent insurance policy. The present paper develops a formal definition of congruence of an insurance policy to a pension plan. The definition is applied to a simple practical example. It becomes clear that it is almost impossible to obtain congruence of a traditional German life insurance product to an employer's defined benefit pension plan.     

Peer-to-Peer-Absicherung privater Risiken: Eine Exploration am Beispiel von Wildschaden

This paper examines the extent to which business model development is an effective method of surmounting market failure in the insurance industry. In particular, it endeavours to demonstrate that replacing the traditional relationship between the insured and the insurer with a bilateral agreement opens up new markets, thus enabling hitherto non-insurable risks to be covered by new peer-to-peer business models. The insurance against risks caused by wild animals was chosen as the empirical field, since it is known to be an area which exhibits market failure. Based on 16 episodic interviews with representatives of the hunting community, demand structures and relevant contextual factors are revealed and analysed in terms of risk coverage and claims management among community members. This paper thus proposes an alternative position to that of the traditional insurance business, in which cover is based on a large and diversified risk group.     

Understanding price competition in the German motor insurance market

This paper analyzes price competition in the German motor insurance market since 1994 and looks for evidence to back up a claim frequently found in the trade literature—that there have been two recent price wars in this industry, the first in 1996–1999, the second in 2005–2006. In a first step, we analyze the development of the German motor insurance market and compare it to that of other property-liability lines of business. In a second step the applicability of price war definitions found in the marketing literature to the German motor insurance market is checked. In a third step, a comparison to reference cases from other industries, where price wars have been subject to academic analysis, is conducted to complement the analysis. We conclude that, contrary to reports in the trade literature, the periods of 1996–1999 and 2005–2006 should be considered as times of intense competition in the motor insurance industry, not as times of price war.     

财险公司未决赔款准备金波动风险及其防范对策

未决赔款准备金作为财险公司最大的负债项目之一,通过不断提高数据的真实性与有效性,加强未决赔款准备金的波动风险的管理,有利于我国财险公司与财险行业的稳健经营与持续发展。未决赔款准备金波动风险产生的主要原因有数据的可靠性、精算评估方法的波动性以及宏观管理因素与经营环境的变化。通过切实提高管理水平、提升公司的精算技术、加强精细化经营理念的宣导以及加强非寿险行业的精算标准建设,将能有效地防范未决赔款准备金波动风险。     

Online-Aktivität als moderierender Effekt der Wirkung Convenience instrumentalisierender Attribute auf Kundengewinnung im Versicherungsneugeschäft

Digitization’s increasing influence on the Germans’ everyday lives leads to changes in their buying behavior. In the internet age, customer orientation means, inter alia, to actually understand the changes in the consumers’ expectations. This raises the question how the shift of customer activity from the analogue to the digital world changes the effect of certain exogenous, convenience exploiting attributes on a supplier’s predefined response variables (e.?g. customer acquisition). This article focuses on the insurance industry and, theoretically, deals with the question, whether doing business online can be considered as moderating effect of the relationship between convenience attributes (controllable by insurers) and customer acquisition as target figure in insurance business. Based on the example of contracting a new motor insurance policy it can be derived hypothetically that “digital customers” have different expectations in terms of speed of processing (as convenience attribute) than those signing a policy together with their agent.     

非寿险承保风险引发系统性风险的复杂网络分析

本文基于我国财险业2009~2018年数据,用复杂网络理论模型构建了财险业承保业务网络,并模拟了承保风险传染过程,分析了承保风险对财险业系统性风险的影响轨迹及程度。研究发现,我国财险业承保业务网络的联系越来越密切,承保风险的增加会引发传染风险,进而导致爆发系统性风险。但当前我国财险业整体稳定,只有发生1600亿元及以上的初始损失时,才会有保险机构陷入危机;当初始损失大于8500亿元时,才会有保险机构因传染风险而陷入危机。在承保风险的传染过程中,损失至少以数倍的速度下降;保险机构主要在承保风险和前两轮传染中损失较大,在后续传染轮次陷入危机的可能性极低。因此,防范巨灾风险、监管重点公司、探索巨灾转移机制并建立承保风险预警机制显得比较重要。     

Zur Risikoanalyse von Hedgefonds: Ein datenanalytischer Ansatz

Hedge fund returns have a number of specific features compared to traditional investments which result in problems when applying traditional methods of risk analysis (Markowitz portfolio selection theory, Sharpe Ratio, value at risk calculation based on normal returns). These problems have to be considered adequately by insurance companies when constructing internal risk models and performing risk management for hedge funds in their investment.The present paper has its focus on the departure of hedge fund returns from the normality hypothesis, especially with respect to the statistical quantities skewness and kurtosis (fat tail problem). A statistical analysis of hedge fund index returns gives evidence that the majority of hedge fund returns show substantial departures from normality. In addition, the analysis shows that hedge fund returns are adequately represented by the family of GH-distributions developed in exploratory data analysis. Following this result a risk analysis of hedge fund strategies is performed on the basis of the GH-value at risk.     

Defaults and advice in self-customization procedures of insurance

The customization of insurance products is a crucial factor for the success of many insurance companies because it allows customers to tailor the insurance according to their specific needs. Customization can lead to increased customer satisfaction and loyalty. Focusing on two vertical customization methods, by-attribute and by-alternative customization, we experimentally analyze the influence of defaults. Moreover, we compare the effect of defaults to the influence of stated advice. Our results demonstrate that defaults enhance the likelihood of choosing premium insurance compared to a situation without defaults for both the by-attribute customization and the by-alternative customization. However, the customization process itself has no influence on default acceptance. If insurance companies combine a default with extensive advice (i.?e., advice that provides an explanation for why the advice is given), customers are most likely to choose the premium insurance.     

Zum Treuhänder des Sicherungsvermögens unter dem neuen Versicherungsaufsichtsgesetz – Auswirkungen der Solvency II-Umsetzung

This paper is about the consequences of the transposition of the Solvency II Directive into the new German insurance supervisory law (VAG 2016) on the trustee for monitoring of the guarantee assets. The trustee of the guarantee assets is a national security mechanism to protect policyholders in case of insolvency of their insurance undertaking. The previous German Regulation of Investments (AnlV) is not valid any more for insurance undertakings falling under Solvency II since 01.01.2016. Instead of legal investments rules insurance undertakings are now obliged to have a (written) internal investment policy, which is also the basis for monitoring of guarantee assets by the trustee. Challenges arise because of the clash of the accounting view (German local GAAP) and the market valuation view of Solvency II. Our analysis contributes to a better understanding of the interplay between unchanged legal provisions and the new economic, risk based perspective of Solvency II.     

互联网保险公司财务风险研究

互联网保险特殊经营模式使保险公司呈现固定资产占比较小、资产负债率较低、保险产品"场景化、碎片化"、渠道成本低廉等财务特征,也使保险公司面临更为错综复杂的财务风险,如对股东的权益性资金依赖性较强、定价风险加大、盈利空间不定以及骗赔套保和洗钱风险等.鉴此,应拓宽筹资渠道,优化保险产品定价,提高保费收入持续增长能力,降低运营和合作成本,构建第三方保单认证和风险评估体系,加强资金规范化管理,强化外部监管等.     

Garantieversprechen für Gebrauchsgüter als erlaubnispflichtige Versicherungsgeschäfte aus deutscher und europäischer Sicht

The article deals with the conditions under which the provider of guarantees for consumer goods operates an insurance business and therefore needs a permit. This question is of fundamental academic importance as it concerns the limits of insurance. Secondly, it is of practical relevance, as is reflected in court decisions in Germany as well as in other European countries. A comparative analysis supports the following rules: An extension of the statutory warranty offered by the seller or manufacturer is normally to be regarded as ancillary to the purchase agreement, which does not lead to regulatory licensing requirements. By contrast, if a third party offers a guarantee this is to be considered as an insurance business and therefore requires a permit.     

财产保险公司资产负债管理多维量化评估体系研究

良好的资产负债管理是保险业可持续发展的基石,也是支持保险业在日益复杂的风险环境中保持稳健发展、防范系统性风险的重要保障。近年来,随着我国金融市场发展,业务产品创新加快,保险业在资产端与负债端的业务结构和风险特征出现了新情况、新变化。特别是部分保险公司缺乏有效的治理结构,采取激进经营、激进投资的策略,导致业务快进快出、风险敞口过大以及流动性问题,对保险公司资产负债匹配管理、风险控制提出了挑战。本文介绍了财产保险公司资产负债多维度量化评估规则设计原理、主要评估模型和评估方法,针对财产保险公司的负债特性提出的沉淀资金匹配,在成本收益匹配中有机地将资产投资收益与承保业务综合成本进行匹配,在现金流匹配模式中打破了僵化的匹配模式,解决了长期困扰财产保险公司的资产负债期限不匹配的问题,对财产保险公司资产负债管理具有重要意义。     

The psychological effects on tariff choices for car insurance

Insurance customers increasingly choose between conventional flat-rate car insurance tariffs and innovative usage-based car insurance tariffs such as a pay-per-mile tariff. Usage-based car insurance tariffs require traffic telematics. In this paper, we analyze the decision-making behavior of insurance customers concerning tariff choices as well as the psychological effects. In other service areas, it can be observed that customers often prefer a flat-rate tariff even if their billing rate would be lower on a pay-per-use tariff for a given amount of usage. In study?1, we show that the purchase intention of car insurance tariffs is influenced by psychological effects as well as the customer’s personal experience with the insurance provider and that it is higher for a flat-rate car insurance tariff compared to a pay-per-mile tariff. Customers who have had positive experiences with an insurance provider induce a higher purchase intention for car insurance than customers who have had no experience with an insurance provider. In study?2, we show that the probability of choosing a flat-rate car insurance tariff is higher with increasing monthly kilometers.     

Corporate Insurance Strategy: The Case of British Petroleum

The authors provide a fundamental rethinking of how corporations should evaluate various kinds of risks and risk management solutions—a rethinking that leads to a major shift in British Petroleum's approach to insuring property and casualty losses, product liability suits, and other insurable events. Conventional corporate practice—and until the early 1990s (when this article was written) the longstanding policy of BP and most large oil companies—was to insure against large losses while self‐insuring against smaller ones. In this article, the authors explain why BP has chosen to go against the conventional wisdom and instead buy insurance for mainly smaller losses while self‐insuring larger ones. The BP decision came down to factors affecting the market supply of insurance as well as the corporate demand for it. On the demand side, the authors demonstrate that the primary source of demand for insurance by large public companies is not, as standard insurance textbooks assume, to transfer risk away from the corporation's owners. Because corporate stockholders and bondholders effectively manage the effects of such risks by diversifying their own portfolios, the corporate demand for insurance in BP's case stems from the insurers' comparative advantage in evaluating and monitoring BP's smaller risks and in processing claims. On the supply side, the authors explain why the capacity of insurance companies and markets to underwrite very large or highly specialized exposures—when compared to the industry expertise and financial resources of companies like BP—is quite limited, and likely to remain so. Since premiums would be experience‐rated and prior years' losses simply rolled into the following years' premiums, there would be no effective transfer of risk, and so no gain to BP from buying insurance.     

Solvency Ⅱ与C-ROSS非寿险保险风险最低资本要求比较研究——基于中国60家财产保险公司的经验证据

本文以非寿险业务保险风险最低资本要求为考察对象,研究了欧盟Solvency Ⅱ与中国C-ROSS的差异,并利用中国保险市场60家财险公司的经验数据,对两者之间的差异进行了实证和模拟分析。研究结果表明,Solvency Ⅱ和C-ROSS对中国财险公司保险风险最低资本要求存在差异。对于拥有传统业务结构的财险公司,Solvency Ⅱ对保险风险最低资本要求更高,但是这种差距随着公司业务规模的缩小而减弱;对于以经营某些专业险种为主的财险公司,主营业务险种对两者差异具有决定性影响。本文的研究结论详细解释了Solvency Ⅱ与C-ROSS在非寿险保险风险最低资本计算上的异同,对C-ROSS下一步的修订工作提供了一定的支持与参考。     

Firm's demand for insurance: An explorative approach

This paper addresses the question, what influences the insurance demand of companies and examines the influence of managerial risk aversion in this decision process. An explorative research approach based on qualitative data analysis is applied to explore the factors influencing the insurance related decision behavior in organizations. Using interviews and observations of firm's insurance managers, the results identify interdependencies between factors of insurance demand, such as ownership structure, managerial discretion, volatility of earning, size, services of the insurer, and business diversification which allows to propose a framework of contextual factors affecting company's insurance demand. Within this framework, the data imply managerial risk attitudes as decisive factor in the decision process about insurance demand in companies. This explorative study enriches the existing theories of firms’ insurance demand and addresses feedback from practice into theory.     

Mittelbare Diskriminierungen bei Unisex-Versicherungstarifen

The article drafts a concept for applying the prohibition of indirect gender discrimination in the specific situation of insurance tariffs. In order to reveal indirect discrimination it has to be shown that each gender is affected differently by a differentiating factor to a significant extent. The basis is a statistical comparison between the total group and the disadvantaged subgroup (among potential insurance holders). Because of Art. 5 (1) of Council Directive 2004/113/EC a statistically verifiable risk difference cannot justify indirect discriminations by itself. The provision prohibits not only direct discrimination but also the use of differentiating factors highly correlated with one gender as the correlation leads to the inclusion of a higher gender-specific risk. Therefore only distinctions which are based on the individual insurance record can be justified as their aim is to influence future behaviour. In other cases it is necessary to separate the risk difference causally linked to the differentiating factor from the incorporated gender-specific risk difference.