发展中国家与发达国家国际储备之比较分析

国际储备增长迅速,黄金储备、特别提款权和在IMF的头寸总量基本未变,但外汇储备增长迅速。通过对发达国家与发展中国家国际储备进行对比分析后发现:发展中国家的国际储备增长迅速,发达国家的国际储备占全球储备的份额在逐年下降;黄金储备、特别提款权和在IMF的头寸主要集中在发达国家,而外汇储备主要集中在发展中国家;美元仍然在全球外汇储备中扮演着举足轻重的角色。其产生差别的主要原因在于国际货币体系、各国的汇率制度和金融发展水平。     

中国外汇储备现状分析与建议

近三年来,美元对国际主要货币的汇率频繁下挫,引起了世界各国的极大关注。中国目前面临的问题是外汇储备总量过高,储备结构单一。在金价上涨、美元缩水的情况下,中国成为了外汇储备损失最为严重的发展中国家,因此必须采取相应的调整措施。     

中国国际收支与货币供给关联性的实证分析:1996～2007

现阶段中国国际收支影响货币供给的传导机制为:货币需求机制和汇率安排机制。前者最终通过国际储备表现出来,而国际储备又通过"汇率安排途径"影响基础货币,最终影响货币供给量。实证分析结果表明:从静态考察,外汇储备与货币供给、外汇占款与基础货币呈高度正向关联性;从动态考察,随着外汇储备和外汇占款的增加,两者分别对货币供给和基础货币的作用效力不断增大。基于此,在汇率稳定目标下,要减轻国际收支对货币供给的不适宜冲击,应主要从平衡国际收支和推进外汇储备管理体制改革着手,并兼顾国际收支失衡对货币供给扩张和收缩两方面的影响。     

以新思维审视中国外汇储备风险

外汇储备是一国国际经济活动往来形成的特殊的外币债权,中国经常项目、资本和金融项目的特点以及热钱的大规模流入决定了中国当前的外汇储备存在一定的不稳定因素。过多的外汇储备必将产生较大的机会成本风险,并且面临着较大且频繁的汇率风险以及境外金融机构倒闭和资产价格波动的风险,给国内的流动性控制和金融调控带来诸多的困难,增加了贸易摩擦的频率。要审时度势,通过加快国内经济结构调整、鼓励走出去、多元化运作储备资产等形式规避中国外汇储备所面临的风险。     

3.99万亿美元

<正>数据显示,截至2014年二季度末,中国外汇储备余额已达3.99万亿美元,如此巨额储备对中国经济产生了重大影响,也面临着种种困局。因此,从国家财富管理的角度出发,必须提高储备资产的战略使用。点评:储备资产在平衡国际收支、提高对外支付能力、稳定本币汇率以及应对国际金融危机冲击等方面发挥了积极作用。然而,过度积累的外汇储备不仅严重影响了货币政策的独立性,也导     

我国外汇储备数量的统计研究

外汇储备是一国国际储备体系的重要组成部分,是一国货币当局为了平衡国际收支和稳定汇率而持有的具有国际流动性的储备资产。外汇储备对平衡国际收支、稳定一国币值、缓冲国际经济冲击等方面都有着重要而积极的作用。但从本质看,外汇储备实质上是一项流动     

超额外汇储备与储备资产投资管理策略的转变——国际趋势及其对中国的启示

全球外汇储备规模急剧扩大,已经远远超过传统储备充足率要求.而持有超额储备的潜在成本加大,促使国际储备资产投资管理策略发生新的转变,追求更高的资本回报、风险控制管理技术的创新、更加透明化的储备资产运作信息披露,成为新的趋势.中国同样面临严重的储备"过多"难题,适当调整外汇储备资产管理目标,增加外汇储备资产配置的多元化程度,适度的市场化运作以及信息披露,是中国外汇储备资产投资管理的必然方向.     

中国外汇储备的现状及发展

外汇储备,是国际储备主体。各国持有适度规模的外汇储备既是为了弥补国际收支逆差,又是为了维持本国汇率稳定。我国1994年以来外汇储备一直处于增长趋势,如何改善和合理运用过量的外汇储备是我国目前面临的重要问题。     

发展中国家外汇储备的增加原因及管理现状

20世纪90年代以来，全球国际储备规模增长较快，发展中国家外汇储备的增长更为明显。本文通过对最近十多年来发展中国家外汇储备的变化、原因及管理进行分析，指出在现有国际货币体系下，发展中国家外汇储备的增加是应对世界经济动荡的无奈之举，而其外汇储备的管理存在一些短期内难以克服的问题。近年来，我国国际储备剧增，对我国而言，最大的挑战就是如何继续利用目前有利的金融形势，实行必要的宏观经济和结构性改革，以克服发展中国家外汇储备管理中类似的难题。     

浅谈中国巨额外汇储备的保值增值

近年来中国外汇储备激增,引起了各界的关注。适度的外汇储备有助于保持汇率的稳定,保证正常的进口和外债支出,抵御外部风险。而过多的外汇储备会带来巨大的成本和压力。中国的外汇储备已超出适度的规模。次贷危机后,美元持续贬值,中国以美元为主的外汇储备严重缩水,中国巨额外汇储备的保值增值面临着巨大的挑战。本文对我国外汇储备的来源和结构进行分析,对我国外汇储备规模的适度性和投资方案等进行研究,查看了国外外汇储备管理的成功经验。笔者认为,要做到外汇储备的保值,首先要控制外汇储备的进一步快速增长,要优化外汇储备的币种结构和资产结构,减少对美元资产的持有量,增加黄金储备和战略资源储备等。同时对外汇储备的增值提出了一些设想。     

我国外汇储备的溢出效应研究——基于引力模型的分析

本文采用2000-2015年199个国家和地区的外汇储备面板数据,基于引力模型理论,考察了我国高额外汇储备的溢出效应及对全球资产配置的影响。研究发现:我国外汇储备具有随地理距离递减的空间外溢效应,双边汇率制度关联会增加外汇储备持有比例的相似程度,而且这种溢出效应更多地表现在与中国金融发展水平类似、资本账户开放程度相近的国家之间。上述结论凸显了国家间加强外汇储备合作调整的战略意义。探究我国外汇储备的溢出效应,有利于发展中经济体更好地理解外汇储备的变动逻辑,对于完善外汇储备管理体制,参与国际宏观经济政策协调机制均具有一定的积极意义。     

Special Exchange Rates for Capital Account Transactions

The governments of developing countries are constrained in theeffective implementation of domestic policy by the interlinkagesof national and international financial markets. Domestic macroeconomicconditions are influenced by the interaction of national andworld interest rates and prices, and through the impact of realexchange rates on employment. The domestic responses to changesin these factors are often strong and rapid. In an attempt tosever these ties, governments have adopted dual exchange ratesystems in which capital account transactions are conductedat a depreciated exchange rate while an otherwise overvaluedrate is maintained for commercial trade. This article suggeststhat dual rates can indeed be used successfully as a strictlytransitory policy to offset sudden shocks in capital markets.The article develops models which indicate why these dual systemsare able to prevent inflationary or recessionary pressures causedby a misaligned exchange rate in the short term. While freecapital account rates can cut the flow of capital flight, however,a dual rate system cannot prevent a possibly equivalent lossof foreign reserves that will ultimately result because of theimpact of the overvaluation of the commercial rate on the tradebalance. In the longer term, a dual rate system with a misalignedcommercial rate exacerbates the government's deficit; ultimately,real wages must be cut and real interest rates raised to generatesufficient foreign exchange to finance the external debt. Thusa dual rate works well if the commercial rate is maintainedclose to the equilibrium level.     

我国外汇管理体制改革30年：成就、缺失及深化

我国的外汇管理体制改革取得了许多宝贵经验,但在长远改革目标、汇率形成机制改革、资本项目开放以及外汇储备经营方面还存在明显缺陷.建议以维护国际收支平衡为长远日标;坚持人民币汇率形成机制市场化改革方向;以审慎原则推进资本项目可兑换;增加金银在外汇储备中的比重,减少美元投资规模,实施"藏金于民"策略.     

MACROECONOMIC ADJUSTMENT TO CAPITAL INFLOWS: LESSONS FROM RECENT LATIN AMERICAN AND EAST ASIAN EXPERIENCE

Capital inflows to some developing countries have increasedsharply in recent years. Impelled by better economic prospectsin those countries, lower international interest rates, anda slowdown of economic activity in the capital-exporting countries,the inflows have furnished financing much needed to increasethe use of existing capacity and to stimulate investment. Butcapital inflows can bring with them their own problems. Typicalmacroeconomic repercussions have been appreciation of the realexchange rate, expansion of nontradables at the expense of tradables,larger trade deficits, and, in regimes with a fixed exchangerate, higher inflation and an accumulation of foreign reserves. Should government intervene to limit some of these side effects—andif so, how? The question is especially pressing in the wakeof the Mexican crisis of December 1994. This article looks foranswers in the experience of four Latin American and five EastAsian countries between 1986 and 1993, examining the effectsof the capital inflows on the economy and comparing the differentways in which these countries responded to the problem of "toomuch" capital.      

PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Dual exchange rates and black markets for foreign exchange arecommon in developing countries, and a body of evidence is beginningto emerge on the effects that such parallel foreign exchangesystems have on macro-economic performance. This article presentsa simple typology of parallel systems, discusses their emergence,and looks at why countries prefer these arrangements to themain alternatives. The article examines the ability of parallelmarkets to insulate international reserves and domestic pricesfrom shocks to the balance of payments. Drawing on the findingsfrom eight detailed case studies, the authors discuss the determinationof the parallel premium in the short and long terms, the relationshipbetween the premium and illegal transactions, and the fiscaleffects of parallel rates. They compare the experiences of countriesthat have attempted to unify their foreign exchange marketsand discuss the implications for policy alternatives.      

Capital flows,exchange rate management and monetary policy

Capital inflows have brought substantial macro and financial benefits; at the same time, the size and nature of capital inflows have complicated macroeconomic management in recipient countries. Multiple concerns have produced multiple responses by countries to capital inflows. Countries have pursued a combination of policies – let the exchange rate appreciate, accumulate foreign exchange reserves, with or without sterilization, liberalize outflows, tighten monetary and fiscal policies and in a few cases impose capital controls on inflows either directly or through prudential regulation. Experience shows that there are no corner solutions and countries have to resort to a judicious mix of these policies depending on the prevailing circumstances.     

外汇储备的积极管理:新加坡、挪威的经验与启示

一定规模的外汇储备有助于保持汇率的稳定,保证正常的进口和偿债支出,并能有效应对外部冲击导致的金融风险。但是,中国当前的外汇储备规模已经远远超过了最优规模。本文试图借鉴新加坡和挪威等国的经验,介绍外汇储备的积极管理。新加坡和挪威的经验表明,外汇储备的积极管理可以提高本国储备资产的长期购买力、提升本国的国际竞争力并消除外汇储备增加对宏观政策自主性的影响。在消极外汇储备管理的模式下,中国优化外汇储备的货币结构和资产结构存在一定的局限性。本文对建立中国的外汇储备积极管理体制提出了建议并指出值得注意的若干问题。     

中国的短期国际资本流动——基于月度VAR模型的三重动因解析

本文在已有文献的基础上,选择短期国际资本流动及套利、套汇和套价三类因素共六个变量,采集2002年1月至2011年6月的中国月度数据构建VAR模型,分析三类因素对中国短期国际资本流动的驱动因素影响。结果表明,中国短期国际资本流动在较大程度上由其自身变化解释;在三大因素的可解释部分中,套汇因素的影响最大,且主要表现为预期汇率驱动,套价因素的影响次之,其表现为股价和房价驱动,套利因素的影响极弱。这一结论与中国外汇市场和货币市场的现状密切相关,同时对短期国际资本流入的监测管理和人民币汇率制度改革具有重要的启示意义。     

Imports under a Foreign Exchange Constraint

To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakersmust estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchangeavailable. Traditional models estimate import demand as a functionof relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (grossdomestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the1980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms oftrade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchangeavailability in most developing countries and limited importcapacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporateboth the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity—foreignexchange inflows and international reserves. The first modelassumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the secondmodel import prices are endogenous—allowing for governmentattempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domesticimport price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-onedeveloping countries for 1970–83. The results suggestthat the import model presented here does a better job of explainingimport behavior than do the traditional model (which excludeschanges in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludesrelative import prices and income).