沪铜期货的套期保值研究

自金融危机爆发以来,风险越来越深入人心,越来越多的人开始关注如何管理风险,如何降低或转移不利的风险,套期保值者在降低或转移不利的风险选择管理风险的工具时,往往会选择利用套期保值来管理风险,而套期保值是期货市场的基本功能之一,套期保值者可以利用期货合约进行风险管理,降低或转移不利的价格波动风险,所以,运用好套期保值的关键就是利用期货合约,建立多少头寸,即确定最优的套期保值比率。本文以套期保值理论为依据,以计量经济学中的最小二乘法估计为手段,运用Eviews软件确定沪市期货市场中铜期货的最优的套期保值比率,从而最大限度的降低套期保值者风险暴露的程度,降低或转移不利的因价格波动而带来的交易风险。     

利用期货套期保值促进纺织产业发展研究

棉纺业是我国支柱产业,但棉花价格波动使企业业绩剧烈波动,制约了纺织业的发展壮大,文章分析了期货套期保值的基本原理,并探讨棉纺企业如何通过建立期货头寸以套期保值的方式对冲棉花价格风险,最后结合实际为如何支持期货在企业的运用提供了政策建议。     

风险厌恶、失望厌恶和期货套期保值

本文考察失望厌恶对期货套期保值的影响。我们把一个不变的绝对风险厌恶（CARA）效用函数放进Gul（1991）的失望厌恶框架之内。它显示出，一个更厌恶失望的套期保值者会比一个厌恶失望程度较低的套期保值者选择一个更接近于最小方差套期保值的最优期货头寸。当套期保值者厌恶风险的程度较低时，失望厌恶的效应更强。对失望很小程度的厌恶会使一个接近于风险中性的套期保值者持有一个截然不同的头寸。此外，一个更厌恶风险或失望的套期保值者会有一个较低的参考点reference point。数字上的结果显示，厌恶失望的套期保值者的参考点往往会低于传统的厌恶损失的套期保值者的参考点。于是，厌恶失望的套期保值者的行动会更加保守，利用机会牟利的行为会少于传统的厌恶损失的套期保值者。     

基于VaR模型的沪铝套期保值基差风险研究

基差本身变化带来的风险会影响到套期保值的具体效果,本文以上海期货交易所电解铝期货为实例,利用VaR方法对基差风险进行测度,以帮助投资者在套期保值过程中评估其所面临的风险,从而为套期保值者(无论是空头套期保值者还是多头套期保值者)正确选择入场时机,精确计算因基差朝着不利方向变化而导致的所需追加保证金数额,从而做好在期货套期保值中的资金管理,有效回避市场风险奠定基础。     

浅析股指期货套期保值理论发展及研究方法

股指期货对规避风险、资本保值起到很大作用,是金融期货中历史最短、发展最快的金融产品。当购买一定数量的股指期货合约和股票的资产组合时,股票价格的变动造成的潜在得失可被期货头寸的损益冲抵,从而规避风险,实现套期保值。本文对现有股指期货套期保值的理论和研究方法进行阐述和分析,对其研究方向作出思考。     

橡胶国内现货市场和期货市场套利模式分析

期货套期保值作为一种转移风险的方式,本质上即为套期保值者通过买卖期货产品将风险转移给其他交易者,从而达到规避风险和转移风险使套期保值者减少或者避免损失的目的,期现套利是套期保值的一种特殊方式。本文通过对期现套利做出简单介绍,详细阐述期现套利者在现货市场所面临的风险和套期保值者如何在现货和期货市场进行操作来规避和减少风险,从而为套期保值者进入期货市场规避转移风险提供理论依据。本文主要通过橡胶的期现套利进行介绍。     

黄金期货最优套期保值策略实证研究

随着我国黄金期货市场的发展,越来越多的黄金投资者通过黄金期货进行套期保值来规避由于黄金价格波动引起损失的风险。本文运用黄金期货套期保值绩效作为套期保值有效性的评价指标,对OLS模型、ECM模型、BGARCH模型和ECM-BGARCH模型以及黄金期货一个月期、二个月期和三个月期的套期保值有效性进行横向和纵向的对比研究,以期为黄金投资者提升套期保值有效性,减少由于黄金价格波动而造成的损失提供思路。     

恒生指数和沪深300股指期货套期保值效果对比研究

本文利用OLS、ECM、ECM-GARCH模型对沪深300股指期货和恒生指数期货的最优套期保值率进行了估算,并在风险最小化框架下对它们的套期保值效果进行了对比研究。结果发现:无论是哪种股指期货,不考虑期现货间存在的协整关系会使估算的最优套期保值率偏高,影响套期保值效果;其次是虽然在样本内外,沪深300股指期货的套期保值效果比恒生指数期货的好,但是沪深300股指期货套期保值效果的稳定性比恒生指数差。此时,ECM-GARCH和OLS模型分别为样本内外投资者利用沪深300指数期货进行套期保值时的最佳选择;对于恒生指数股指期货,最优模型是ECM。     

我国商业银行外汇套期保值策略研究

国有商业银行作为我国外汇交易的主体,在国家外汇改革过程中承担着最大的外汇风险。本文就商业银行外汇套期保值的特点,通过对西方发达国家常见的一些操作策略进行了研究,对国有商业银行应采用外汇套期保值策略提出了以下两点建议。"!在运用远期外汇交易以及外汇期货交易的时候应采用积极主动的套期保值策略,特别应该避免采用不加分析的对其所有敞口头寸进行完全保值的策略。"#应该把银行的利率风险与外汇风险视为一个整体并进行同步套期保值。     

沪深300股指期货对上证50ETF套期保值的模拟分析

上证50ETF的系统性风险占其总风险比率的计算结果表明运用沪深300股指期货对其进行套期保值的必要性,通过四种模型计算的最优套期保值比率差别较小,套期保值效果显著,并且样本外的套期保值效果优于样本内的。     

Cross-hedging with futures and options: The effects of disappointment aversion

This article examines the effect of disappointment aversion on cross-hedging decisions. We show that, when both futures and options markets are unbiased, disappointment aversion has no effect on the optimal hedge positions. In case that either market is biased, disappointment aversion induces the hedger to behave more conservatively. In addition, as the hedger becomes more disappointment averse, his action is more reserved. It is also found that disappointment aversion tends to depress the importance of the put options whereas the effect of risk aversion is not uniform. Analytical predictions are supplemented by numerical exercises.     

Hedging house price risk with futures contracts after the bubble burst

This paper extends the existing literature on managing house price risk. While previous work finds that a hedger would have reduced a large amount of variance in housing returns in Las Vegas, Nevada using Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) futures contracts, we show that neither static nor dynamic strategies would have maintained an effective hedge during the significant decline in housing prices. The inability to hedge house price risk using CME futures contracts ultimately calls into question the long-term viability of housing futures.     

BASIS VOLATILITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR HEDGING

Most hedges placed in futures markets must be lifted before contract expiration, which necessitates incurring “basis risk.” The focus of this paper is on quantifying such risk as a function of the timing of a hedge, its duration, distance from contract expiration, hedge life, and other market-observable variables. The development of basis-risk profiles provides a hedger with estimates of hedging risks that reasonably can be expected before the actual placement of hedges, thus serving as a useful input in the hedging decision.     

Commodity futures hedging,risk aversion and the hedging horizon

This paper examines the impact of management preferences on optimal futures hedging strategy and associated performance. Applying an expected utility hedging objective, the optimal futures hedge ratio is determined for a range of preferences on risk aversion, hedging horizon and expected returns. Empirical results reveal substantial hedge ratio variation across distinct management preferences and are supportive of the hedging policies of real firms. Hedging performance is further shown to be strongly dependent on underlying preferences. In particular, hedgers with high risk aversion and short horizon reduce hedge portfolio risk but achieve inferior utility in comparison to those with low aversion.     

Effects of skewness and kurtosis on production and hedging decisions: a skewed t distribution approach

This paper assumes that the spot price follows a skewed Student t distribution to analyze the effects of skewness and kurtosis on production and hedging decisions for a competitive firm. Under a negative exponential utility function, the firm will not over-hedge (under-hedge) when the spot price is positively (negatively) skewed. The extent of under-hedge (over-hedge) decreases as the forward price increases. Compared with the mean-variance hedger, the producer will hedge more (less) when negative (positive) skewness prevails. In addition, an increase in the skewness reduces the demand for hedging. The effect of the kurtosis, however, depends on the sign of the skewness. When the spot price is positively (negatively) skewed, an increase in kurtosis leads to a smaller (larger) futures position.     

Hedging Multiperiod Forward Commitments: The Case of Period-by-Period Quantity Uncertainty

This article considers the hedging problem of a producer with along-term forward commitment to deliver a commodity at multiple futurepoints in time. The aggregate quantity to be delivered over time is knownwith certainty; however, the period-by-period quantity is determined bythe customer and is unknown to the producer. A minimum-variancemultiperiod futures position that considers both price uncertainty andperiod-by-period quantity uncertainty is derived. The following resultsare obtained: The individual effects of price uncertainty and quantityuncertainty on the multiperiod minimum-variance are separable. In thetwo-period case, if the spot price is expected to decrease over time, therisk-minimizing hedge considering both price and quantity uncertaintiesis greater than that which considers price uncertainty only. If the spotprice is expected to increase over time, then the hedger would beover-hedged if only price uncertainty were considered. Convenience yieldpromotes a larger risk-minimizing futures position, whereas storage costsand financial costs reduce the size of the risk-minimizing futuresposition. In the multiperiod case, if forward prices are unbiasedestimators of future spot prices, or if spot prices are expected todecrease over time, then quantity uncertainty increases the size of therisk-minimizing hedge. If spot prices are expected to increase, then theeffect of period-by-period quantity uncertainty isindeterminate.     

OPTIMAL FUTURES HEDGE WITH MARKING-TO-MARKET AND STOCHASTIC INTEREST RATES

We investigate the effect of marking-to-market on an optimal futures hedge under stochastic interest rates. An intertemporal optimal hedge ratio that accounts for basis risk and marking-to-market is derived. This ratio includes all previous hedge ratios, with constant interest rates as special cases. In a preliminary empirical study using S&P 500 index futures contracts, we demonstrate that the futures-forward hedging differential is nontrivial, especially in risk-return optimization. We also show that the covariances between interest rates and spot and futures prices explain the differential: the larger the covariances are, the larger the differential will be.     

The Traditional Hedging Model Revisited with a Nonobservable Convenience Yield

This article examines the hedging of constrained commodity positions with futures contracts. We extend the study of Adler and Detemple (1988a, 1988b) to include a partial information framework where the convenience yield is not observable. As a consequence, futures prices depend on investor's beliefs regarding the value of the convenience yield, and every component of the hedge is impacted by these beliefs. We achieve a decomposition of the demand that clarifies the impact on the optimal hedge of the beliefs, the spot price and the risk‐free rate as well as the hedging horizon.     

Cross-commodity hedging for illiquid futures: Evidence from China's base metal futures market

This paper evaluates the effectiveness of cross-commodity hedging between China's base metal spot and futures markets, using daily data of metal spot and futures prices in the Shanghai Futures Exchange. The main findings suggest that, compared to unhedged spot portfolios, a naïve hedge increases risk exposure, while static and dynamic hedges can significantly reduce the risk of holding spot assets. Zinc futures and nickel futures outperform other base metal futures in individually hedging lead spot and tin spot respectively, while copper futures constitute a moderately optimal instrument to hedge both lead and tin spot assets.     

Optimal Hedging under Intertemporally Dependent Preferences

This paper examines optimal hedging behavior in a market where preferences for current consumption are partly determined by the consumer's past consumption history. The model considers an individual exposed to price risk, who allocates wealth between consumption and futures contracts over a (continuous-time) finite planning horizon. The speculative component of the hedge ratio is shown to be smaller and the consumption path smoother than in models where preferences are separable over time. Some comparative-static properties of the hedge ratio are also examined.